Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor

Galaxy turns in an unsurprising set of results in its first poll in over two months, recording the same shifts since that time as everybody else.

The first federal poll from Galaxy since July is well in line with the trend, as Galaxy so often is, in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up three to 42% and Labor down one to 36%, with the Greens on 12% (up one) and Palmer United on 4% (down three). Further questions found 62% support for Australian involvement in air strikes against Islamic State, with 21% opposed, and 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”, versus 16% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (6/10): Roy Morgan gives the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. The Greens are steady at 12%, and Palmer United are down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the previous election. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 7:50 pm | PERMALINK
    ModLib

    Yes, I should have pointed out that the Greens have not sold out, just the ALP.

    And the Liberals, of course.]

    Yes, but many of the Liberals actually really support these policies. The moderate liberals are legendary for drawing the lines in the sands to the detriment of their own careers.

    I honour them.

    The ALP folk just go along silently giving the policies their tacit support as they don’t want to affect their career prospects…….BOO

    [Are you going to vote Green from now on?]

    Depends.

    You?

  2. mikehilliard

    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

    AA

    Our household insurance just went up $900 with no change to our circumstances. Must be the terrorist threat.

    I’m going to kit a burqa to cover my house….

  3. Sorry- not sure why there are a couple of double posts tonight!

    I promise I am not pressing return any harder than usual!
    🙂

  4. So they pay 10k to put their unaccompanied children on a leaking boat to cross the Indian Ocean.are you arguing that the parents have no interest in coming to Australia? If so they have no expectation to see or support the children and expect Australiia to raise their children.

    I’m glad they are not my parents.

  5. ModLib

    no, because – as I outlined before – I realise that supporting a political party is a balancing act – and, on the issue of asylum seekers, there IS no ‘nice’ option.

  6. OC

    [So they pay 10k to put their unaccompanied children on a leaking boat to cross the Indian Ocean.are you arguing that the parents have no interest in coming to Australia? If so they have no expectation to see or support the children and expect Australiia to raise their children.]

    The flaw in your logic here is that you assume this is less dangerous that their present existence. So the parents make a choice that it is less dangerous to send their children away than to stay where-ever they were.

    Look at the countries of origin for these people, they are all coming from dangerous places.

    Apologies I shouldn’t comment here, I only make other people upset.

  7. zoomster:

    But you told me that you DO support the ALP policies. You said that rendition to Malaysia was a good policy…no?

  8. Astrobleme@807

    Apologies I shouldn’t comment here, I only make other people upset.

    Don’t be deterred.

    I have given you a bit of stick on occasions, but I still welcome your presence and comments.

  9. ModLib

    yes, and I still think that. Which sort of shows that I don’t think that JUST because I’m an ALP supporter, but because I think it’s the best policy option that’s been presented by anyone so far.

    (I did think the present discussion was around current policies, not ones that were never actually implemented).

  10. Astro
    [Apologies I shouldn’t comment here, I only make other people upset.]
    Don’t worry. We’re always upset over one thing or another. One more thing can’t hurt.

  11. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 8:00 pm | PERMALINK
    ModLib

    no, because – as I outlined before – I realise that supporting a political party is a balancing act – and, on the issue of asylum seekers, there IS no ‘nice’ option.]

    Well, what point were you making here then?

    Why say supporting a political party is a balancing act when you fully support the ALP policy on asylum seekers?

  12. ModLib

    [Why say supporting a political party is a balancing act when you fully support the ALP policy on asylum seekers?]

    1. Because it is.

    2. Because I don’t support Nauru or Manus, therefore that statement is untrue.

  13. GG

    My name didn’t show up. It’s definitely English but not in any of those categories. Originally from Yorkshire, we are.

    DN

    🙂

    Well, home time for me!

  14. [zoomster
    …..Because I don’t support Nauru or Manus, therefore that statement is untrue.]

    OK, I think I get it now:
    Nauru BAD
    Manus BAD
    Cambodia BAD
    Malaysia GOOD

    What about onshore detention facilities like Villawood, Port Hedland and Woomera?

  15. The boats only started loading up with women and children after rule changes by Howard meant that those who arrived would never be reunited here with their family.

  16. ModLib

    sorry, if you’re just going to try and reduce complex issues into slogans, there’s really no point engaging with you.

    Vote Green. They like over simplifying issues, too.

  17. qanda

    Tonight’s Panel
    Patrick McGorry – Mental Health Advocate
    Josh Thomas – Comedian & Actor
    Louise Byrne – Lived Experience Practitioner
    Jennifer Bowers – Australasian Centre for Rural & Remote Mental Health
    Bob Katter – Leader of the Katter’s Australian Party

  18. George Orwell was quite prescient in 1984. You can just imagine this in the next few weeks on SkyNews and boosted by the Murdoch organs.

    Just substitute Iraq for South India, and chocolate rations for government welfare expenditure

    [The voice from the telescreen paused. A trumpet call, clear and beautiful, floated into the stagnant air. The voice continued raspingly:

    ‘Attention! Your attention, please! A newsflash has this moment arrived from the Malabar front. Our forces in South India have won a glorious victory. I am authorized to say that the action we are now reporting may well bring the war within measurable distance of its end. Here is the newsflash—-‘

    Bad news coming, thought Winston. And sure enough, following on a gory description of the annihilation of a Eurasian army, with stupendous figures of killed and prisoners, came the announcement that, as from next week, the chocolate ration would be reduced from thirty grammes to twenty.
    ]

    If Murdoch succeeds in boning the ABC completely, this is our future

  19. So Astrobleme, a rational decision is made that detention under Australian custody with eventual resettlement in a place without sectarian persecution is better than staying with your family.

    I can accept this but if it is true it does not explain why the irregular entries have now stopped.

  20. [A PLOT to install an alternative leader to Premier Campbell Newman in dumped former minister Bruce Flegg’s blue-ribbon electorate of Moggill is being secretly considered within the LNP.
    The Courier-Mail has learnt the high-level scheme to install what is being called a “new culture” leadership candidate was discussed by senior LNP figures at the weekend.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/lnp-considers-plot-for-backup-leader-to-campbell-newman-in-case-he-loses-ashgrove-seat/story-fnii5v6w-1227080834348

  21. Moon of Alabama site reports in detail the daily events against ISIS
    __________________
    Strange that the Turks haven’t moved to help the Kurds in Kobama right on their border…and Today the Turks tear-gfassed media who tried to report their strange reluctance to crose the border and challenge ISIS just a few ks away ,even after shells fell on a Turks village nearby

    Would the Turks rather see the Kurds defeated ? Probably

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/

  22. [I’m glad they are not my parents.]

    You should probably pull your head out of um the sand and be glad you don’t live in a country where you are subject to persecution and death and think what you’d do for your kids if you were.

  23. Everyone assumes the boats have stopped. I see no evidence that they have, in fact I see no evidence for anything at all now Op Sov Borders us an Official Secret.

  24. Er, what?

    No, ModLib.

    I gave you the respect of answering your questions honestly and thoughtfully. You wanted to reduce the conversation to a gotcha game.

    If you don’t have the manners (or ethics) to respect other posters, then you don’t deserve respect yourself.

    I know that you only come here to prove to yourself that you’re better than other people. That’s sort of sad.

  25. Darren Laver@782

    We don’t have a clue about where to put Adelaideans and Taswegians.

    I understand some have spoken of contingency plans for certain Pacific Islands and where their inhabitants may need to go should global warming force sea levels to rise.

    But you are correct that I don’t think any government has put forward similar contingency plans for the folk in Adelaide and Taswegia.

    Adelaide has about 1.3 million residents and Taswegia about 500,000 – I am not sure anyone has a clue where to put them.

    New Zealand?

    As long as it is not in the Eastern states with all you crazy b’tards.

  26. You could get The entire family by air to Malaysia or Indonesia and still have change from the cost of putting an unaccompanied child on a leaking boat. Until recently there were no visa problems.

    The Indonesians and Malays have very pragmatic views on the Shia/Sunni divide. Safety assured and the family stays together!

  27. …and, I will add, I can’t see the point of going through a conversation we’ve had many, many times, and which you clearly remember. If you want to relive our past exchanges on this subject, you’re welcome to make use of the search engine.

    If you’d like to explore new territory, go for it – but show me some of the respect I was showing you.

  28. [zoomster
    …..I gave you the respect of answering your questions honestly and thoughtfully. You wanted to reduce the conversation to a gotcha game.]

    It was a very simple question. I understand why you were frightened of it, but that says more about you and your position (and your view about your position) than it says about me.

    Given you have engaged in slurs about me, questioning the things I have said about myself (being a doctor, being a researcher, teaching medical students) it shows a lot of hutspa
    on your part to post what you did!

    Well done!

    [If you don’t have the manners (or ethics) to respect other posters, then you don’t deserve respect yourself.]

    What about a poster that says that they hate another poster*

    YIKES! I always get that wrong, don’t I? It wasn’t “hate” everyone, it was “detest”.

    [I know that you only come here to prove to yourself that you’re better than other people. That’s sort of sad.]

    I come here to discuss. Hence my linking to those articles talking about how mandatory detention is considered child abuse by Australian paediatricians. You went on to flippantly tell me to vote for the Greens, then you pontificate about mature and considered reflections on policy positions.

    Again, I admire your hutspa!
    :devil:

  29. ModLib

    every now and again I think you’re asking a serious question, and I am foolish enough to think it’s worth engaging with you seriously.

    But it’s always an error, because you’re not here for a sensible discussion, but to prove to yourself that you’re somehow superior to everybody else.

    The way you dwell on past slights helps reinforce the idea that you’re seriously lacking in self esteem.

  30. [zoomster
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 8:51 pm | PERMALINK
    ModLib

    every now and again I think you’re asking a serious question, and I am foolish enough to think it’s worth engaging with you seriously.

    But it’s always an error, because you’re not here for a sensible discussion, but to prove to yourself that you’re somehow superior to everybody else.

    The way you dwell on past slights helps reinforce the idea that you’re seriously lacking in self esteem.]

    “Past slights”?

    Have you apologised and withdrawn? I have no memory of that. Hence, they are current aren’t they?

    If I was seriously lacking in self esteem do you think I would be able to handle the hostility I get here with the grace and charm that I do?

    😉

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