BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate ticks very slightly in favour of the Coalition, but with only one poll reporting this week, there isn’t much weight behind the move.

This was one of those alternating weeks where all we get in the way of a new poll is Essential Research, and there being nothing remarkable about that result one way or another, BludgerTrack records only the tiniest of changes this week. Such movement as there is favours the Coalition, which is as much to do with the trend momentum created by last week’s Newspoll and ReachTEL results as the very slight shift to the Coalition in Essential. This causes the seat projection to tick over another seat in the Coalition’s favour, the gain coming in New South Wales. Nothing new this week for the leadership numbers.

Speaking of Newspoll, conspiracy theory pre-emption time: I can state with confidence that there will be no poll this weekend, based on the gap that appears in the pollster’s national phone polling schedule. This reflects the Labour Day holiday on Monday in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the ACT. No, Newspoll doesn’t always let public holidays in a few states stop it, but this time it is, on the basis of a decision made quite a long time ago.

The Australian has been tiding us over with a few state polls, so far coming out with quarterly figures for Queensland and South Australia. Early next week, it will presumably follow with a result for Western Australia – a big occasion, WA being the state that polling forgot – and the July-to-September quarterly aggregates of federal polling broken down by state, age and gender. The latter is also eagerly awaited by myself, as the state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are in an unusually unreliable place at present, it being three months since they were last fed with any Newspoll data.

UPDATE (3/10): Roy Morgan has published one of its occasional telephone polls gauging leadership ratings, this one being a survey of 503 respondents conducted from Tuesday to Thursday. The findings concur with other recent polling in showing Tony Abbott’s standing having substantially improved since the last poll in early June, his approval rating up ten to 44% and disapproval down twelve to 47%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are also slightly improved, his approval up two to 37% and disapproval down three to 42%. However, Abbott has taken a 44-37 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 43-38 last time.

The poll also inquires about preferred Liberal and Labor leaders, finding a big lift in support for Julie Bishop since June (up nine points to 16%), Tony Abbott (up four to 19%) gaining ground on the still-favoured Malcolm Turnbull (down six to 38%), and Joe Hockey down five points to 6%. There is only slight change for Labor, with Bill Shorten down a point to 21%, Tanya Plibersek up two to 18% and Anthony Albanese steady on 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,144 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor”

  1. [Shorten, Baird and Morrison attended]

    Labor have emailed out video of Shorten’s MPI in parliament the other day, as well as snippets of other MPs addressing the HOuse on Abbott’s dog whistling. It’s good to see the opposition marking clear lines in the sand on this from the govt.

  2. ESJ: why does the Coalition go after the racist vote? Don’t they think they can win the war of ideas? Convince the voters that University deregulation is a good thing, for example? That winding back Medicare is good for them?

  3. ESJ @1106: I regard the instance that you cite as an unusual case of Labor sinking to the Liberal’s level. But who says tge car workers are dopey? Appalling snobbery.

  4. [ Steve777
    Posted Saturday, October 4, 2014 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    Re Victoria @1094 – I like this from Bill Shorten:

    ” …in response to Tony Abbott’s concerns that moves to ban head coverings were damaging to “Team Australia”, Mr Shorten told reporters: “I’m more concerned about Team Idiot – that is, parliamentarians who should know better.” ]

    Yep – but the point is how little air time it will get.

    The media are too busy showing abbott ‘directing’ the *war* each night on TV.

    Its a far better *vibe* ya know.

    Have we ever gone to war so quickly ?

    Have we ever to war without some sort of long form questioning etc of our so called ‘leader’ ?

  5. [
    You mean like bill shorten talking about “japs” and ww2 in Adelaide to dopey car workers steve777?]

    Shorten refered to workers as “dopey”? Have you a source/link for this, please?

  6. Of course occasionally the Liberals put down the dog whistle and pick up the vuvezela, as when Scott Morrison issued press releases detailing the dread diseases boat people were suppose to be carrying.

  7. Look, “car workers” (whatever that means) may not be the sharpest tools in the shed, as it were, but it is not helpful for their future career prospects to be labelled as such.

  8. [Just to clarify, ESJ called the car workers dopey, not me and not Bill Shorten.]

    ESJ also thinks all muslim women wear a burqa.

    Think it’s safe to say ESJ isn’t all that up to speed on contemporary Australian society.

  9. Well no response was ever sought BK. Diversity of thought and opinion is obviously not a strong suit on your part given your turgid daily media harvesting.

  10. [1106
    Edwina StJohn

    You mean like bill shorten talking about “japs” and ww2 in Adelaide to dopey car workers steve777?]

    Surely you’re referring to an address to ship-builders…

    In any case, this is yet another example of ESJ’s bigotry, this time directed against workers threatened with job losses.

  11. [Please no “verbals” confessions.]

    You asked the question babe, how many muslim women feel free not to wear a burqa, and put it as a smug gotcha to another commenter. Given the answer is plenty, something you clearly weren’t aware of, no verballing on my part.

    But gotta say, your squealing is kinda cute after the way you treat other commenters here. Fond of dishing it out, yet can’t take it in return I gather?

    Whatever.

  12. You know, the most frightening thing about ESJ is that if he/she really is the combined output of a team of LNP trolls all of whom sock-puppet under the same identity, it means that even when you combine the IQ’s of multiple LNP supporters they still only add up to … well … ESJ!

  13. http://www.news.com.au/national/super-hornets-take-off-as-voters-back-abbott-in-war-against-isis/story-fncynjr2-1227080213118
    [Super Hornets take off as voters back Abbott in war against ISIS
    October 04, 2014 9:15PM
    Samantha Maiden
    Herald Sun

    AUSTRALIA’S Super Hornet fighter jets are flying in Iraq in the first non-combat operations as an exclusive poll reveals voters strongly back RAAF air strikes in Iraq.

    The Sunday Herald Sun can ­reveal that F/A-18 Super Hornets have now started non-combat reconnaissance and intelligence operations over Iraq. Air strikes are expected as early as tonight.

    The Super Hornets have returned safely to base in Dubai after flying secret daily missions to northern Iraq since Friday.

    The Sunday Herald Sun’s exclusive ­Galaxy poll has found most people — ­62 per cent — support Australia’s air strikes in Iraq against the “death cult’’ ­Islamic State.

    But an even higher number — 75 per cent — believe the threat of a terrorism attack on Australian soil is real.

    ………….

    According to the Galaxy poll, support for the Coalition has also jumped for the third successive survey since the May Budget, with the primary vote increasing by three points to 42 per cent.

    The Labor Party is still leading on a two-party preferred basis with 51 per cent to the Abbott Government’s 49 per cent. But the gap has diminished since an angry backlash to the tough May Budget.

    Support for the Greens has also jumped from 8 per cent in last year’s federal election to 12 per cent.

    Clive Palmer’s PUP party has taken a beating, however, slumping from 8 per cent in May to 4 per cent in the latest Galaxy poll.]

    Not all Primaries are in this article, we’ll have to wait

  14. Of the 2.2% of Muslims in Australia, probably:

    0% wears the burqa

    <0.5% wears the niqab

    <5% wears a hijab

    And I'm willing to wager that there are a lot more assimilated Muslims than there are non-assimilated ones.

    How about those who actually wants to play the AFL not be criticised for being Muslim?

    I wonder if there are a lot more unassimilated Aussies who doesn't have friends who are non-Anglos?

  15. Raaraa@1128

    Of the 2.2% of Muslims in Australia, probably:

    0% wears the burqa

    <0.5% wears the niqab

    <5% wears a hijab

    And I’m willing to wager that there are a lot more assimilated Muslims than there are non-assimilated ones.

    How about those who actually wants to play the AFL not be criticised for being Muslim?

    I wonder if there are a lot more unassimilated Aussies who doesn’t have friends who are non-Anglos?

    Most I know or have known don’t wear any headcover and the ones that did only wore the hijab and were pretty cool.
    Most also drank alcoholic drinks such as wine. 😀

  16. frednk@1131

    Raaraa; in my view a nice hijab looks pretty dam spiffy. Would make a dam good fashion item for any women.

    The black ones don’t do much for a woman, but some of the bright colourful ones are very attractive.

  17. What do the Japanese think of the term “Jap”?

    Coming from Singapore, that term was normally used, so I was at first surprised that it was considered derogatory here.

    It doesn’t help that green grocers still commonly label “jap pumpkins” .

  18. Raaraa@1133

    What do the Japanese think of the term “Jap”?

    Coming from Singapore, that term was normally used, so I was at first surprised that it was considered derogatory here.

    It doesn’t help that green grocers still commonly label “jap pumpkins” .

    Just a contraction of Japanese. I have never seen it as particularly derogatory unless coupled with other terms as it often used to be.

  19. Raaraa there is a period of Japan history it is best not to talk about, and that I think is about it. Considering the demographic of their votes and the number of Australians that died, it was surprising that Abbott chose to claim they fought with honor.

  20. bemused

    I thought the contraction was akin to “Oz” or “Aussies” referring to Australians.

    To be fair though, the terms “Japan” and “Japanese” were given to them by foreigners. The Japanese don’t call themselves that or something similar.

  21. [
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, October 4, 2014 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Well I think the decline in the labor vote in recent months is due to all of the self indulgent labor memoirs
    ]
    Bet you haven’t bothered to read any. Actually I suspect that reading is not your strong point. Sydney shock jocks in the morning?

  22. frednk

    [Raaraa there is a period of Japan history it is best not to talk about, and that I think is about it. Considering the demographic of their votes and the number of Australians that died, it was surprising that Abbott chose to claim they fought with honor.]

    Is it best not for us to talk about, or the Japanese? As far as I know, in the Japanese school curriculum, they don’t talk about the war much at all.

  23. Raaraa@1138

    bemused

    I thought the contraction was akin to “Oz” or “Aussies” referring to Australians.

    To be fair though, the terms “Japan” and “Japanese” were given to them by foreigners. The Japanese don’t call themselves that or something similar.

    It’s all the context.

    “Jap cars” is not at all derogatory as they have a high reputation.

    Japs used as a collective noun in a neutral sentence is not derogatory.

    But older folks talking about WWII refer to Jap bastards and all sorts of other deliberately derogatory terms to express their abhorrence of the behaviour of Japanese forces in WWII. Some of a later generation have absorbed this from parents and other older relatives.

    I quite liked all the Japanese people I have met in Australia, but they are not of the generation that inflicted so much pain in the region.

  24. [ 50 years ago there was a trend for Muslim women to become westernised. Attaturk banned the scarf in public buildings and Nasser certainly discouraged it
    The question has to be asked why did this trend reverse – was it Western and particularly US foreign polict that seemed unwelcoming? ]

    Having discussed this issue years ago with a friend from Malaysia its got little or nothing to do with the US, and lots to do with cashed up Saudis spreading the conservative desert tribal Wahhabist version of Islam.

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