This was one of those alternating weeks where all we get in the way of a new poll is Essential Research, and there being nothing remarkable about that result one way or another, BludgerTrack records only the tiniest of changes this week. Such movement as there is favours the Coalition, which is as much to do with the trend momentum created by last week’s Newspoll and ReachTEL results as the very slight shift to the Coalition in Essential. This causes the seat projection to tick over another seat in the Coalition’s favour, the gain coming in New South Wales. Nothing new this week for the leadership numbers.
Speaking of Newspoll, conspiracy theory pre-emption time: I can state with confidence that there will be no poll this weekend, based on the gap that appears in the pollster’s national phone polling schedule. This reflects the Labour Day holiday on Monday in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the ACT. No, Newspoll doesn’t always let public holidays in a few states stop it, but this time it is, on the basis of a decision made quite a long time ago.
The Australian has been tiding us over with a few state polls, so far coming out with quarterly figures for Queensland and South Australia. Early next week, it will presumably follow with a result for Western Australia a big occasion, WA being the state that polling forgot and the July-to-September quarterly aggregates of federal polling broken down by state, age and gender. The latter is also eagerly awaited by myself, as the state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are in an unusually unreliable place at present, it being three months since they were last fed with any Newspoll data.
UPDATE (3/10): Roy Morgan has published one of its occasional telephone polls gauging leadership ratings, this one being a survey of 503 respondents conducted from Tuesday to Thursday. The findings concur with other recent polling in showing Tony Abbott’s standing having substantially improved since the last poll in early June, his approval rating up ten to 44% and disapproval down twelve to 47%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are also slightly improved, his approval up two to 37% and disapproval down three to 42%. However, Abbott has taken a 44-37 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 43-38 last time.
The poll also inquires about preferred Liberal and Labor leaders, finding a big lift in support for Julie Bishop since June (up nine points to 16%), Tony Abbott (up four to 19%) gaining ground on the still-favoured Malcolm Turnbull (down six to 38%), and Joe Hockey down five points to 6%. There is only slight change for Labor, with Bill Shorten down a point to 21%, Tanya Plibersek up two to 18% and Anthony Albanese steady on 15%.