BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate ticks very slightly in favour of the Coalition, but with only one poll reporting this week, there isn’t much weight behind the move.

This was one of those alternating weeks where all we get in the way of a new poll is Essential Research, and there being nothing remarkable about that result one way or another, BludgerTrack records only the tiniest of changes this week. Such movement as there is favours the Coalition, which is as much to do with the trend momentum created by last week’s Newspoll and ReachTEL results as the very slight shift to the Coalition in Essential. This causes the seat projection to tick over another seat in the Coalition’s favour, the gain coming in New South Wales. Nothing new this week for the leadership numbers.

Speaking of Newspoll, conspiracy theory pre-emption time: I can state with confidence that there will be no poll this weekend, based on the gap that appears in the pollster’s national phone polling schedule. This reflects the Labour Day holiday on Monday in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the ACT. No, Newspoll doesn’t always let public holidays in a few states stop it, but this time it is, on the basis of a decision made quite a long time ago.

The Australian has been tiding us over with a few state polls, so far coming out with quarterly figures for Queensland and South Australia. Early next week, it will presumably follow with a result for Western Australia – a big occasion, WA being the state that polling forgot – and the July-to-September quarterly aggregates of federal polling broken down by state, age and gender. The latter is also eagerly awaited by myself, as the state breakdowns in BludgerTrack are in an unusually unreliable place at present, it being three months since they were last fed with any Newspoll data.

UPDATE (3/10): Roy Morgan has published one of its occasional telephone polls gauging leadership ratings, this one being a survey of 503 respondents conducted from Tuesday to Thursday. The findings concur with other recent polling in showing Tony Abbott’s standing having substantially improved since the last poll in early June, his approval rating up ten to 44% and disapproval down twelve to 47%. Bill Shorten’s ratings are also slightly improved, his approval up two to 37% and disapproval down three to 42%. However, Abbott has taken a 44-37 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 43-38 last time.

The poll also inquires about preferred Liberal and Labor leaders, finding a big lift in support for Julie Bishop since June (up nine points to 16%), Tony Abbott (up four to 19%) gaining ground on the still-favoured Malcolm Turnbull (down six to 38%), and Joe Hockey down five points to 6%. There is only slight change for Labor, with Bill Shorten down a point to 21%, Tanya Plibersek up two to 18% and Anthony Albanese steady on 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,144 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.6-49.4 to Labor”

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    [The Australian Industry Group (AIG) has released its Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for September, which revealed an accelerating contraction in manufacturing activity, with the index declining by 0.8 to 46.5 (a score below 50 means that activity is contracting).

    Respondents to the Australian PMI® indicated that despite a welcome depreciation in the Australian dollar since early September, it remains high and continues to support intense import competition and weigh heavily on exports. The winding down of Australian automotive assembly and the ongoing downturn in mining construction activity are also affecting demand for locally-made products and components.

    Across the eight manufacturing sub-sectors in the Australian PMI®, only the large food and beverages (54.9 points) and the smaller wood and paper products (63.2 points) sub-sectors expanded in September. All other sub-sectors remained in contraction (i.e. below 50 points).

    All of the activity sub-indexes, except for supplier deliveries, were below 50 points (i.e. signalling contraction) in September. Manufacturing exports deteriorated significantly this month to be at their lowest level since April 2013.

    The internals were mixed, with sales, exports, new orders and production all deteriorating, but employment and deliveries improving…]

    Manufacturing has only a small share of the economy these days, but this still depicts weakness, especially in the internationally-facing parts of the economy.

  2. frednk – One of the comments on the Newman/BoM article –

    [I’m a little concerned for Maurice’s state of mind. Wanting to “dispel suspicions of a warming bias” is akin to “checking under the bed for monsters”.

    You can never catch fantasms: they reappear when turn your back and disappear when you turn to face them.

    Maybe a comforter or a night-light would help.]


  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Abbott’s rhetoric seems to be wearing a bit thin inside Coalition ranks.
    Peter Hartcher describes it as a failure of leadership.
    Michelle Grattan says Abbott has fanned the debate he was trying to cool.
    Jacqui Maley profiles the “burqa bashers”. And reckons it’s a diversion from the budget mess.
    Paul Sheehan puts Abbott’s “apocalyptic death cult” into perspective. A good read.
    Paying the price for ignoring Iraq warnings.
    Abbott’s bogus war narrative and his problem with history.,6954
    The terrorists win as new laws are passed.
    Mark Kenny – Government in humiliating retreat with the budget.
    Will Hockey now find even more vindictive budget savings in retaliation?

  4. Section 2 . . .

    Laura Tingle says that Hockey is waving a red flag instead of a white flag. She begins the pay-walled article with “Even in politics, or perhaps especially in politics, just saying something over and over doesn’t make it true, or make it happen.”
    Stephen Koukoulas – Dodgy Brothers budget repair.
    Department stores are copping it as real wages and consumer confidence fall. Keep talking Joe – you’re doing a great job!
    Are department stores losing their relevance?
    For once Gerry Harvey gets it right.
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    How can dangerous fools like Newman and Warburton continue to be tolerated and let off the hook?
    The downward spiral of “our” ABC.
    A nice Christmas Island welcoming message from a hand-picked Administrator – a youthful Barry Hasse. Remember him?
    Last night Mrs BK and I pulled out of our planned trip to Turkey next year. Here’s one of the reasons.
    David Leyonhjelm pays the piper after donations from Big Tobacco.

  5. Section 3 . . .

    Clive Palmer gets a slap on the wrist and detention from the ASX.
    Elizabeth Farrelly is less than impressed with Sydney’s new Opal card.
    James Hird will get the boot today as Essendon announces that they will not appeal last month’s Federal Court decision.
    Be careful Clive for what you wish for.
    Pat Campbell looks at Palmer’s Senate inquiry into Newman.
    Some more cartoons from Fairfax. There are five of them to flick through.
    MUST SEE! David Rowe on the burqa threat to Parliament House.

  6. Morning all. Thanks BK for links to all the news that is fit to read. One wonders how long the government can keep distracting from the budget mess. Sooner or later the mid year economic review figures will have to be released. They will be ugly.

  7. “@SenatorWong: Brandis finally said something I agree with “there could be no greater error than for Australians to demonise our fellow Islamic citizens”.”

  8. The Hong Kong “umbrella revolution” protest is interesting. Yesterday afternoon at 5.30pm there was a group of Asian students in Rundle mall in Adelaide holding their own supporting event. They were lined up sitting on the ground in a column with umbrellas and signs supporting the Hong Kong protestors. It was all very polite and well ordered, but quite sincere. There were maybe thirty students when I walked past.

  9. Socrates

    Yes the people in Honk Kong have to be admired for the way they are protesting. They are also very clever. It will be very hard for Beijing to ban umbrella’s

  10. Guytaur

    Yes the students in Rundle Mall had their own umbrellas, holding them open above them. The symbolism was quite obvious. They all had smart phones and were in contact with peers.

  11. From previous thread:

    Leroy Lynch
    Posted Wednesday, October 1, 2014 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    These aren’t paywalled

    University heads divided over a free market on fees
    The Australian
    October 01, 2014 12:00AM
    Andrew Trounson Higher Education Reporter Melbourne
    Julie Hare Higher Education Editor Sydney

    One thing I’ve learnt from the climate change debate, if big sciency dudes in robes disagree, this means the measure is not working and bound to fail. 😛

  12. Morning all. Thanks BK for the wrap up. A shame Tingle is pay-walled as I wouldn’t have minded reading her views.

    Love Rowe this morning too. 😆

  13. This is the same trick used by the “Minister for Science” over CSIRO. Cut maintenance funding, spend on capital items and swear there are no cuts.

    [Beth Vincent-Pietsch, deputy secretary of the Community and Public Sector Union, said a review of the BoM was unnecessary.

    “What’s actually needed is a review of the funding situation because the cutbacks are hurting right now,” she said. “Quite specifically, the Australian climate change science program has been cut by 20%, which does directly impact what the bureau can achieve.

    “I think it’s very sad this government devalues science in every walk of life. The fact no-one is defending the bureau’s staff and the good work they do is a crime.”
    . . .

    Greg Hunt, the federal environment minister, said he disagreed with Newman’s comments on the BoM.

    “I respect his views but I respectively and clearly disagree,” he told Guardian Australia. “The BoM is a world leading meteorological organisation and the government is investing in a major new supercomputer which the ALP refused to fund.”]

  14. Cuts to CSIRO and BoM but there will be $20 billion fund for the medical researchers who sponsor Abbott’s bike rides.

    Sickening…and our lame media say nothing……

  15. Thanks BK. You are a Bludger Treasure.

    cf Rowe’s cartoon

    While I liked the helmet/bandolero allusions for Abbott I would have liked to see him clutching a toy FA-18 and an Action Man figure as well.

    I now look forward to the first allusion by an Australian cartoonist to probably the most famous Vietnam War cartoon, of Johnson shitting bombs.

  16. This is a good move.

    [The Australian Bureau of Statistics is considering adding additional questions to its 2016 census to better count the population of towns or cities where many residents may be absent for long periods, including fly-in, fly-out workers or those with holiday homes only occupied for part of the year.

    Such a change could have big implications because census figures decide how much funding local government areas get from the Government under its financial assistance grant program.]

    Our town which is a holiday destination really struggles in peak periods with electricity in particular. I’d hate to think what it was like if all homes were fully occupied on a regular basis.

  17. Confessions

    Interested in your comment on the town struggling with electricity (supply) in peak season. To me nothing illustrates the breakdown (and corruption) in normal land use and infrastructure planning processes in the past two decades. When a building is permitted for construction it is supposed to include approval by all service authorities, and infrastructure being connected and upgraded, with fees charged to cover the cost. This is the law in every state. Our land is not getting any cheaper – the fees are still being charged – but the infrastructure is clearly not being built.

    The privatisation of service suppliers like water and power was very badly done. Cash strapped state governments simply took the sale proceeds and ran. The service obligations were not adequately placed on the new private suppliers, or if they were, are not enforced by weak or complicit state authorities.

  18. [Susan Carland
    Bernardi’s burqa ban call = blatant opportunism.Prev said it was b/c it’s”oppressive”to women,now it’s for”security”.Whatever works,eh,Cory?]

  19. Socrates:

    There was a time when our council put a moratorium on new house builds because our infrastructure can’t deal with the peak population it has to service now. Not just electricity, but our water supply is very uncertain, the roads become unworkable during peak periods.

    But the council can’t stop people moving into neighbouring shires whereby they still utilise our services, so I think it just gave up the idea of trying to cap population.

    Far’s I know our utility providers for electricity and water are still state-owned, but massively under-invested in.

  20. Our town which is a holiday destination really struggles in peak periods with electricity in particular. I’d hate to think what it was like if all homes were fully occupied on a regular basis.

    I also live in a “tourist town”. While I understand we need them for the town economy, I’m always glad to see the end of the season.

    The benefit, for me, means restaurants are open, many close down when the tourist season ends.

    The down side is that having them is like having a plague of locusts, shelves in the hops stripped bare, the roads are a terror to drive and a person can’t find a bit of peace.

    They wander down through the shops chatting away in their own little world blocking anyone trying to get passed. I’m the grumpy old man, saying loud enough for them to hear…”Its scary, they also drive on the roads the same way”.

    In the newsagent on a Saturday, the West newspaper hadn’t arrived by 10:00am. When the young girl behind the counter was trying to explain to the tourist this woman was giving the girl a tirade of abuse. Ever the chivalrous bloke I stepped in “No papers because there were too many fat tourists with their fat suitcases on the plane. Us locals have to put up with this every year when you come up.”

    As I said – I become the grumpy old man….my wife refuses to shop with me during the “season”,.

  21. Ira not “inviting” Australia to join the combat.

    Like many Australians, perhaps they don’t Abbott anywhere near them either

  22. AA

    on council, we used to muse that we needed signs on the highway – “Fast moving local traffic” – because of all the tourists pottering along at 60k.

    Can’t blame them, the views are awesome, but…

  23. Lizzie quoted

    [Susan Carland: Bernardi’s burqa ban call = blatant opportunism.Prev said it was b/c it’s”oppressive”to women,now it’s for”security”.Whatever works,eh,Cory?]

    Indeed. It worked for ‘boats’ and climate change and invading Afghanistan.

  24. George Monbiot:

    [One of the remarkable characteristics of recent growth in the rich world is how few people benefit. Almost all the gains go to a tiny number of people: one study suggests that the richest 1% in the United States capture 93% of the increase in incomes that growth delivers.
    . . .
    What and whom is this growth for?

    It’s for the people who run or own the banks, the hedge funds, the mining companies, the advertising firms, the lobbying companies, the weapons manufacturers, the buy-to-let portfolios, the office blocks, the country estates, the offshore accounts. The rest of us are induced to regard it as necessary and desirable through a system of marketing and framing so intensive and all-pervasive that it amounts to brainwashing.]


    Found this via Kevin Bonham, and it includes a WA poll (all swings compared to the 2013 state election).

    2PP: L-NP 52.5% (-4.8%)

    Primary vote:
    L-NP 42.5% (-4.6%)
    WA Nationals 3% (-3.1%)
    ALP 31.5% (-1.6%)
    Greens 14% (+5.6%)
    Palmer United Party 4.5% (+4.5%)
    Christians 1.5% (-0.3%)
    Independents/ Others 3% (-0.5%)

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen a poll before that included the god-botherers before… rather detailed. I’m guessing L-NP for primary vote means Libs.

    The result that jumps out at me most is the Nats – their vote’s apparently halved. Assuming their rock steady wheatbelt vote stays put, that would mean bad things for them in the goldfields and Pilbara. Even Warren-Blackwood (their leader’s seat) might be dicey, depending on what Labor and the Greens do with their preferences next time.

    The Greens vote is a looker as well… not as outlandish as that poll right after the senate election, but not far off either. Almost half Labor’s vote, and they help turn a 1.6% loss on primaries into a 4.8% gain on 2pp.

  26. Labor as I said yesterday did well in QT focussing on the Budget.

    More of the same today. There has been some media coverage of the budget as a result. Drip drip will get through eventually as the LNP runs out of distractions to run.

    The challenge for that is like the news of Hong Kong getting through to the mainland of China. You have to get through the Great Firewall and the government propaganda.

  27. It’s “Save Denis Napthine Day”.
    [Tony Abbott flew down to Melbourne late last night, to join an early morning cheer squad for the East West Link. This is the $7bn project that is jointly funded by the state and feds and which the Victorian opposition leader Daniel Andrews is going to shut down if he wins government. The idea, from the sound of Abbott’s comments, is to reach those people sitting in their cars in peak hour this morning, listening to the radio. ]

    from Guardian blog.

  28. [ AussieAchmed
    Posted Thursday, October 2, 2014 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    Ira not “inviting” Australia to join the combat.

    Like many Australians, perhaps they don’t Abbott anywhere near them either ]

    Maybe Iraq won’t give a rolled gold exemption from prosecutions and exemptions from Iraqi laws etc ?

    Media are faithfully running a “What the RAAF did today story” though….

  29. More figures from that Morgan poll:

    NSW: LNP 53-47
    Vic: ALP 54-46
    Qld: LNP 51-49
    WA: LNP 52.5-47.5
    SA: LNP 50.5-49.5

    Tassie: so much WTF I can’t be bothered copying it. At least they admit 2pp vote doesn’t make sense there. Kevin can deal with that one.

  30. lizzie@41

    It’s “Save Denis Napthine Day”.

    …The idea, from the sound of Abbott’s comments, is to reach those people sitting in their cars in peak hour this morning, listening to the radio.

    Unfortunately for Denis, Abbott stuffed this one up too. The traffic on Eastern Fwy was beautiful this morning. I got out on Chandler Hwy exit in less than a minute and sometimes I wait there for 5-10 minutes. So there were no angry people stuck in traffic this morning to court.

  31. Bird of Paradox:

    Last I looked in Tasmania (yesterday I think) the combined ALP and Greens primaries from Morgan had them well ahead. Mind you Hodgman had more than double Green on preferred premier.

  32. It really beats me with the ABC cuts – no one is uttering *broken promise*.

    Not a sausage.

    And ABC barely raising a voice in its own defence.

    Just rolling over and taking it.

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