Seat of the week: Fraser

The electorate covering northern Canberra has been a stronghold for Labor since the ACT was first divided into two seats in 1974, presently providing a home for Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created when the Australian Capital Territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974, Fraser covers the northern half of Canberra, with Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River forming its southern boundary. The southern half of Canberra, together with the non-residential remainder of the Australian Capital Territory, is accommodated by the electorate of Canberra. Whereas Canberra was held by the Liberals from 1975 to 1980 and again for a brief period after a 1995 by-election, Fraser has at all times been held by Labor. Andrew Leigh came to the seat at the 2010 election after the retirement of Bob McMullan, who had held it since a rearrangement caused when the ACT’s representation reverted back to two seats after briefly going to three between the elections of 1996 and 1998. This involved the displacement of Steve Darvagel, who had come to Fraser at a by-election in February 1997 caused by the retirement of John Langmore. McMullan’s vacancy in Canberra was filled by Annette Ellis, who had hitherto been the first and final member for the short-lived seat of Namadji.

When McMullan and Ellis both announced their impending retirements in early 2010, there were suggestions that they were pushed as much as jumped, in McMullan’s case because powerbrokers wished for his seat to go to Left faction nominee Nick Martin. However, the independence of the local branches was instead asserted during the complicated preselection struggles which followed in both seats. Suggestions of a factional arrangement were made to appear particularly distasteful by the strong fields of candidates which emerged, with Leigh joined in the race for Fraser by constitutional law maven George Williams, locally well-connected West Belconnen Health Co-operative chair Michael Pilbrow, and over half-a-dozen others. The Left membership voted down a deal to win backing for Martin by reciprocating support for Right candidate Mary Wood in Fraser, reportedly due to concern about that the Right was not united enough to make the deal stick, and also because it was felt the faction would be better off securing an arrangement with Gai Brodtmann, who had stitched together a cross-factional support base in pursuit of her own bid for Canberra. When the Right’s own candidates dropped out early in the counts, its support was thrown behind the ultimate winners, Leigh and Brodtmann, with Leigh prevailing in the final Fraser ballot by 144 votes to 96.

Leigh was professor of economics at the Australian National University immediately before entering politics, having earlier practised law in Sydney and London and gained a doctorate from Harvard University. A Julia Gillard loyalist, he gained the position of parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister in the shake-up that followed Kevin Rudd’s abortive leadership bid in March 2013, only to lose it when Rudd returned to the leadership at the end of June. Although factionally unaligned, he won promotion to the outer shadow ministry after the September 2013 election defeat as Assistant Shadow Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Seat of the week: Fraser”

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  1. Cabinet Minister Christopher Pyne has suggested former staffer James Ashby may have “misinterpreted” a discussion they had in which the former staffer claims the senior liberal promised him a new job..

    Just like the ‘Unity Ticket’ on the Gonski reforms when the stupid voters ‘misinterpreted’ what was said before the election.

  2. [ @MichaelDanbyMP refers James Ashby’s perjury to Federal DPP #auspol #Ashbygate ]

    Oh goody! So does that mean Ashby may have to defend himeself by dropping more poo on the Fiberals?? Possibly even providing proof of something?? 🙂

  4. [ Just like the ‘Unity Ticket’ on the Gonski reforms when the stupid voters ‘misinterpreted’ what was said before the election. ]

    See, he is just a poor, misunderstood boy. Or he is a lying tosspot?? Hmmm……. do i really need to give that one any thought??

  6. Cormann should front ICAC too:

    Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth · 1h

    Cormann has said he was not aware of exchange with Peta Credlin when he made speech mentioning Brickworks March 21 2010 #ICAC #auspol

    Just because every other liberal used the “didn’t know”, “not aware” defense.

  7. Geoffrey Robertson on The Drum shooting down the new laws to deal with returning terrorists.

    1995 warcrimes legislation covers it

  8. Mal Brough … told the program he asked Mr Ashby to procure a copy of Slipper’s diary.

    Is that as bad as hacking into a computer system to expose a large gift (disguised as a scholarship) to a family member of the Opposition Leader?

  9. In SA at least, there is almost no media interest in Pyne-Ashby (despite Pyne being from SA) but there is quite a lot on Credlin-Brickworks, with Abbott’s name being mentioned frequently.

  11. Diogenes@459

    In SA at least, there is almost no media interest in Pyne-Ashby (despite Pyne being from SA) but there is quite a lot on Credlin-Brickworks, with Abbott’s name being mentioned frequently.

    I look forward to seeing Abbott get ‘bricked’.

  14. Heard some interesting comments from Tom Elliott on 3 aw this afternoon about the huge rise in gas prices that is going to kick in over the next couple of years – just in time for the next election. Apparently the reason for it is that the companies producing the gas can get a much better price for it on the international market and are therefore not prepared to sell any of it at a cheaper price here at home. Elliott also said that this was bound to lead to the closure of some gas using industries here because of the rising prices.

    A number of callers rang in very indignant that the gas producing companies should be allowed to slug the local Australian consumer like that when the gas actually belongs to the Australian people. That was my first reaction too – which got me thinking. Why couldn’t Labor promise to legislate to make the gas companies reserve a certain percentage of the gas to be available to Australians at a lower price, as apparently happens in WA already with other raw products.

    Such a move IMO would be very popular and a vote changer, given the number of people who are going to be affected by these price rises – probably nearly everyone in one way or another. So what would be the down side politically? Am I missing something?

  15. This whole business of James Ashby as as a sensitive young man exploited by a nasty, powerful older man always looked dodgy as all getout. It looked like a conspiracy to entrap, for the purposes of bringing down the Speaker and hopefully bring down a Government.

  18. Bushfire Bill@410

    The Daily Telegraph ‏@dailytelegraph 3h
    Constant attacks on @TonyAbbottMHR are taking their toll on his mother, says PM’s dad http://bit.ly/abbtdad pic.twitter.com/uleukYJygC


    Fair dinkum, it was the Daily Telegraph, along with the shock jocks (and in particular Alan Jones), plus of course a smarmy Tony Abbott who brought aged parents into politics, as well as a lot of other very nasty things too numerous to mention.

    It’s about time they faced up to what they dished out to everyone else as being negative, grubby and very hurtful.

    I feel sorry for Abbott’s mother, but perhaps she ought to be blaming him, not others. They are merely following Abbott’s lead.

    He made his bed and unfortunately his mother has to lie in it.

    I don’t. She’s had decades to get used to the lying, cheating, bullying and other distasteful antics of her unpopular offspring.

    How about she apologizes for inflicting him on the rest of us?

  20. [That was my first reaction too – which got me thinking. Why couldn’t Labor promise to legislate to make the gas companies reserve a certain percentage of the gas to be available to Australians at a lower price, as apparently happens in WA already with other raw products.]

    Firstly there were people in Labor throughly captured by the gas industry and I’m not talking backbenchers. secondly in WA although the rules vary from project to project but I don’t think the gas reservation policy includes a price stipulation – I think the plan is to overwhelm demand with supply thereby reducing the market price.

    The LNG terminals near Gladstone are doing the opposite they are sucking up capacity from the domestic market for export thereby letting the market price rise till it gets to the LNG equivalent price.

  27. Slipper got it into Hansard that his friend Clive Palmer told him he was approached by Hockey & Brough to finance the sexual harassment case against him. Palmer refused to get involved and told them Slipper was a decent bloke.

    Later, Palmer came out and told the media that Hockey played no part. But, the request was made when Brough & Hockey met with Clive.

  28. Darn@464

    Heard some interesting comments from Tom Elliott on 3 aw this afternoon about the huge rise in gas prices that is going to kick in over the next couple of years – just in time for the next election. Apparently the reason for it is that the companies producing the gas can get a much better price for it on the international market and are therefore not prepared to sell any of it at a cheaper price here at home. Elliott also said that this was bound to lead to the closure of some gas using industries here because of the rising prices.

    A number of callers rang in very indignant that the gas producing companies should be allowed to slug the local Australian consumer like that when the gas actually belongs to the Australian people. That was my first reaction too – which got me thinking. Why couldn’t Labor promise to legislate to make the gas companies reserve a certain percentage of the gas to be available to Australians at a lower price, as apparently happens in WA already with other raw products.

    Such a move IMO would be very popular and a vote changer, given the number of people who are going to be affected by these price rises – probably nearly everyone in one way or another. So what would be the down side politically? Am I missing something?

    We went through this argument years ago with ‘world parity pricing’ of petroleum products.

    If you sell it locally at a lower price then you are implicitly subsidising the gas.

    This is economically inefficient.

  29. Really? Abbott’s mother is troubled? She’s still trying to write him a note to cover his bad behaviour?

    How pathetic.

    He’s ostensibly an adult. For good or ill, he’s no longer her responsibility. Let her let him fight his own battles.

    If she’s inclined though, let her declare on his ethics. Then let’s see whether she deserves any solidarity from anyone.

  32. Richard Akland has a piece in The Guardian on Slipper/Ashby:

    James Ashby’s case against Peter Slipper and the Commonwealth, and the associated infusion of media and political involvement, would have to be one of the grubbiest assaults on a government in recent memory. Importantly, Ashby’s allegations on 60 Minutes show that the original claims abuse of process, which were dismissed on appeal by the full federal court, are actually alive and kicking.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/08/james-ashby-v-peter-slipper-the-shameless-game-was-always-about-politics

  34. Seems like we need a Resource Rent tax on gas. If international market conditions mean that the stuff can be sold for much more than it costs to produce, it’s fair that the windfall is shared with the owners of a non renewable resource. Same goes for coal, iron ore, gold, etc. like a mining tax.

  38. AuccieAchmed

    [Is Roy the Boy trying a bit of distraction politics?]
    Longman threatened by invasion by reffos or another little boy out playing with the soldiers ?

    [Mr Roy’s article follows a week he spent travelling with military and Customs personnel off Darwin.]

  42. Steve777@484

    Seems like we need a Resource Rent tax on gas. If international market conditions mean that the stuff can be sold for much more than it costs to produce, it’s fair that the windfall is shared with the owners of a non renewable resource. Same goes for coal, iron ore, gold, etc. like a mining tax.

    Not sure if it falls under the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax. It may well do.

    Certainly the excess profits should be taxed accordingly.

  44. zoidlord@476

    iiNet says copyright infringement isn’t theft:

    Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    zdnetaustralia ‏@zdnetaustralia 7m

    Online copyright infringement isn’t ‘theft’: iiNet http://zd.net/1oWWTSu

    Unlike you and the perpetrators why try and hide behind defenses like this, the rest of us know “theft” when we see it.

  48. @Player One/494

    LOL, your using a attack line, that we are really really bad people, much worse than those that murder people.

  49. Dio pipped my curiosity on Jack the Ripper.

    My first thought were, another load of codswollop, perhaps not…

    [
    The breakthrough came when Dr Jari Louhelainen, an expert in historic DNA, was commissioned to study a shawl found with Eddowes, the second-last “confirmed” victim of the Ripper more than 125 years ago.
    The shawl — which still retained historic stains — had been bought by a businessman at an auction in 2007.
    “It has taken a great deal of hard work, using cutting-edge scientific techniques which would not have been possible five years ago,” Dr Louhelainen told a British newspaper.
    “Once I had the profile, I could compare it to that of the female descendant of Kosminski’s sister, who had given us a sample of her DNA swabbed from inside her mouth.
    “The first strand of DNA showed a 99.2 per cent match, as the analysis instrument could not determine the sequence of the missing 0.8 per cent fragment of DNA. On testing the second strand, we achieved a perfect 100 per cent match.”]

  50. [On 1 July 2012, the PRRT regime was extended to onshore petroleum projects (including coal seam gas, tight gas and oil shale projects) and the North West Shelf project (but not to the Joint Petroleum Development Area in the Timor Sea). In recognition of the unique features of onshore petroleum projects, several changes were made to the PRRT regime.]

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