Seat of the week: Fraser

The electorate covering northern Canberra has been a stronghold for Labor since the ACT was first divided into two seats in 1974, presently providing a home for Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Labor and Liberal polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created when the Australian Capital Territory was first divided into two electorates in 1974, Fraser covers the northern half of Canberra, with Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River forming its southern boundary. The southern half of Canberra, together with the non-residential remainder of the Australian Capital Territory, is accommodated by the electorate of Canberra. Whereas Canberra was held by the Liberals from 1975 to 1980 and again for a brief period after a 1995 by-election, Fraser has at all times been held by Labor. Andrew Leigh came to the seat at the 2010 election after the retirement of Bob McMullan, who had held it since a rearrangement caused when the ACT’s representation reverted back to two seats after briefly going to three between the elections of 1996 and 1998. This involved the displacement of Steve Darvagel, who had come to Fraser at a by-election in February 1997 caused by the retirement of John Langmore. McMullan’s vacancy in Canberra was filled by Annette Ellis, who had hitherto been the first and final member for the short-lived seat of Namadji.

When McMullan and Ellis both announced their impending retirements in early 2010, there were suggestions that they were pushed as much as jumped, in McMullan’s case because powerbrokers wished for his seat to go to Left faction nominee Nick Martin. However, the independence of the local branches was instead asserted during the complicated preselection struggles which followed in both seats. Suggestions of a factional arrangement were made to appear particularly distasteful by the strong fields of candidates which emerged, with Leigh joined in the race for Fraser by constitutional law maven George Williams, locally well-connected West Belconnen Health Co-operative chair Michael Pilbrow, and over half-a-dozen others. The Left membership voted down a deal to win backing for Martin by reciprocating support for Right candidate Mary Wood in Fraser, reportedly due to concern about that the Right was not united enough to make the deal stick, and also because it was felt the faction would be better off securing an arrangement with Gai Brodtmann, who had stitched together a cross-factional support base in pursuit of her own bid for Canberra. When the Right’s own candidates dropped out early in the counts, its support was thrown behind the ultimate winners, Leigh and Brodtmann, with Leigh prevailing in the final Fraser ballot by 144 votes to 96.

Leigh was professor of economics at the Australian National University immediately before entering politics, having earlier practised law in Sydney and London and gained a doctorate from Harvard University. A Julia Gillard loyalist, he gained the position of parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister in the shake-up that followed Kevin Rudd’s abortive leadership bid in March 2013, only to lose it when Rudd returned to the leadership at the end of June. Although factionally unaligned, he won promotion to the outer shadow ministry after the September 2013 election defeat as Assistant Shadow Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Seat of the week: Fraser”

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  2. zoidlord@498

    @Player One/494

    LOL, your using a attack line, that we are really really bad people, much worse than those that murder people.

    You are making the moral equivalence here, not me. But if the shoe fits …

  3. The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) is a profit-based tax which is levied on a petroleum project.

    PRRT is currently applied to the recovery of all petroleum products from Australian Government waters (including crude oil, natural gas, liquid petroleum gas (LPG) condensate and ethane), except for petroleum products extracted from the North West Shelf project and the Joint Petroleum Development Area, and value added products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG).

    From 1 July 2012, the PRRT became a compulsory tax applied to all Australian onshore and offshore oil and gas projects, including the North West Shelf, oil shale and coal seam gas projects.

    And not a squeal from the heads in the trough Liberals.

    Obviously these industries don’t own any Liberal MP’s

  4. [Unlike you and the perpetrators why try and hide behind defenses like this, the rest of us know “theft” when we see it.]

    No you use the word theft knowing it is factually and legally misleading and incorrect because using a factual and legally correct word doesn’t have the misleading and emotive connotation you believe you need to make the case you want to make and get the result you want.

  5. @Player One/502

    You used the word, “perpetrator”.

    Perhaps the real crime is when content is not available.

    Go do some education on it.

  6. zoidlord@505

    @Player One/502

    You used the word, “perpetrator”.

    Perhaps the real crime is when content is not available.

    Go do some education on it.

    All this just because WeWantPaul won’t lend you his copy of “game of thrones”?

    Get over it!

  7. Fran

    I am sorry but comparing your picnic with mosqitoes and defence is a bit skewy. There are OBVIOUS defence issues in Australia that remain true regardless of any particular threat. These are based on geography and will remain valid, at least until teleportation is with us – “beam me up Scotty.”

    Basically Australia has a very large coast line so that should anyone want to invade, be they from Botswana, Patagonia or Scotland the most useful thing Australia can do is have efficient surveillance so we are warned of any threat. With a large coast line lots of little patrol boats is the way to go. As I said, precisely because invasion or threat is unlikely, I would have our patrol boat fleet doing a range of other jobs, especially search and rescue but also checking for illegal fishing and smuggling. In your picnic analogy this is rather like posing a few parents on watch or lifesavers in the rock pool or surf, just to be sure that no kiddie drowns.

    Now the well located defence air strike capacity is certainly lower priority if you do not have any immediate threat but you still need it to some extent. In your mosquito scenario this is really like remembering to pack the DEET in your picnic basket. You may not have mosquitoes or leaches and will not use it but who knows.

    I think when I called for a miniscule army we probably agree. I see no use for a land based army, but would like a group of trained officers who could train and recruit 1,000 men each if needed in an emergency. You will need a few grunts for ceremonial duties. Useful to have some to do flood remediation etc. In your picnic analogy this is rather like ensuring that the leader of a bushwalk has basic first aid training.

    Finally the Navy and attack boats. Since we are an island nation much of our imports will come by sea. in the event of a shooting war we need sufficient navy to make sure essential supplies can be received. At the moment this probably only means oil, but with the death of manufacturing a much larger range of items may be essential. In your picnic analogy this is really remembering to fill the car with petrol so you can get back home.

  9. @Player One/506

    When you loose an argument, do you naturally go for this line of attack? Is this all you have?

    As soon as the internet is available, the audience is in-control, not you.

    Play the ball, not the man.

  10. @pmz/508

    The problem with that argument is the unemployment is not going away. It could also be argued that wasting $20 billion instead of $20 billion on a stimulus package (Coalition Party approved the smaller stimulus package, not the large one) is also a mistake.

  11. The problem is “subs ain’t subs”. Our Collins class is one of only a very few that the US warships, etc cannot locate. They frequently come out on top in war games with the US and others. They have mulitple capabilities expressly designed for Australia’s needs, including the location of suitable base facilities.

  12. [That sounds like a random assertion to me.]

    :-/

    The very low probability of invasion by a large regional power in a conventional war over the foreseeable future is basically the only substantive point I’ve made. Sorry if I’ve been unclear but I don’t think I’ve been that unclear. If it doesn’t happen it’s not our job.

    [The probability of a WW2-style conflict arising in the next 50 years … probably low, but not vanishingly small either.]

    I suggested vanishingly small over the next 15 years and small for at least 15 after that. We don’t seem to be in much disagreement about this; since it’s my main point I’m not sure what this is about.

    Certainly I have ideas about the likely threat mix and what that implies for hardware choices as above; more broadly I’d say as I did the other day that attending to non-defence aspects of security is even more important. But I don’t pretend expertise in these matters and they were not issues that I was making a big case about.

  15. Zacaly News ‏@ZacalyNews 7m
    #BoycottMurdoch week starts TODAY on anniversary of Abbott being elected. Please RT & spread the word! #AusPol pic.twitter.com/cjN3jMkTSx

  17. Finally running out of friends
    ______
    The prestigous “New Yorker “magazine has caused a stir by its disclosures on the power of the Zionist Lobby and the Israelis over US Govt policies and political parties in the USA….nothing new but that its now being said in main stream media shows how the jewish lobby’s power is under fire

    It ilustrates the new mood re Israel in the US where even some Jews are sick of the ruthless use of the Lobby’s powers over politicians in the USA..who defer to the Lobby on much foreign policy…
    just ask Bob Carr how they do it here

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/09/01/friends-israel

  19. DTT

    Despite the existential title, defence ought not be regarded as fundamentally different from any other area of public policy.

    You decide if you have something worth defending, and if you do, what it’s threatened by, and how much you can afford to spend defending it before the game isn’t worth the candle, and whether you can buy or contrive something within that budget and on the necessary timeline to do the job.

    You work backwards from there in a data-driven process. Or you can do what we do now and basically use existential fear to get elected and to pay the spivs in the big defence companies the money they want as the price of winning.

    This latter approach does work well for the elites but is dreadful for everyone else.

  20. Scottish homeowners face mortgage meltdown if Yes campaign wins

    Let me guess – prices will soar to unimaginable levels, industries will shut down, unemployment will rocket and Dundee will be wiped off the map.

  21. [He’s ostensibly an adult. For good or ill, he’s no longer her responsibility. Let her let him fight his own battles. ]

    It’s pretty normal for parents to be upset when people criticise their son or daughter, no matter how old they are.

  23. Fran

    Please do not assume I am preaching existential fear. That is just offensive. Now obviously you weigh the risks and if I was suggesting a missile force to protects us from the green men of Mars your point might stand.

    However the potential for WWIII is now much closer than it has been since the Cuban crisis of 1962. The Ukrainian situation and the Japanese revival are both potential trigger points. Fortunately at the moment Obama is a sane US President, but it cannot be guaranteed.

  24. Re Zoidlord @522: reading the article linked by CTari @514, it seems more than that the UK Chancellor George Osbourne says Scotland keeping the pound is not an option, even though that’s Scotland’s plan. The big end of town chiming in.

    It looks like a threat. If I were an undecided Scot that article would clinch it – ‘Yes’ to break away from Thatcherites.

  25. [123
    Patrick Bateman

    ….the Commonwealth has decided that it is ok for the mining boom to cause massive, potentially permanent disparities between the states.]

    Don’t worry too much about that idea. The iron ore price is in free fall (down nearly 40% year-to-date to USD83.60/ tonne CFR, Tianjin), and the prices for coal (thermal coal at USD66.30, down 23% year-to-date) and LNG (down by up to 50% from its peak) are also falling. It is highly unlikely that any major new projects not already under construction will be given final investment approval. The boom is fading very quickly and for some mines, the bust has already arrived.

    We should be thinking about an IO price at around USD 50-55/ tonne – at the level where Rio, BHP and Roy Hill can recover their cost of capital, earn small profits and together deliver about 700 million tonnes pa to the seaborne trade. There is just no doubt China will use its dominance in an over-supplied market to drive down its costs, in the same way as Australian miners used their advantages in an under-supplied market to drive up their revenues. I have a feeling that the Chinese Government will take some satisfaction from knowing that by re-balancing their economy they will not only serving their own economic interests, they will be putting an end to the decade-long free ride we have enjoyed at their expense.

  26. If Murdoch media is so concerned about Abbott’s mother, were they similarly concerned about Gillard’s father or are they concerned that their attacks on Palmer might upset his family?

  28. [507
    daretotread…

    ….the most useful thing Australia can do is have efficient surveillance so we are warned of any threat. With a large coast line lots of little patrol boats is the way to go.]

    little boats…also known as the Barramundi Class…an armada of tinnies…

  29. The Project showed a few clips of Abbott visiting a factory in Queanbeyan. One of it was him talking to one of the few women in the factory on the shop floor. He had to ask, “you must be popular here?”

    Even Steve Price just hit his head on the desk at that.

  30. BK @ 511

    I just understand the spin on the Collins… was a dud at the beginning & has always been a dud …
    billions pissed up,against the wall & more to follow… there has never been a time when the sub fleet operated as planned
    Department of Defence Report…….

    It warns of grave challenges including periscopes that suck in water, unreliable diesel engines, faulty generators and sonars, and obsolete internal and external communication systems that could jeopardise the ability of submarines to talk to other navy vessels, including international allies. And it warns that the submarines’ cooling systems are overloaded, making the vessels too hot for the crew and machinery.

    It also says the future failure of some hatches and tunnel doors is “probable” and poses a “very high risk” to the submarines reaching their life expectancy.

    Major radiated noise from the submarines is getting worse and is now so loud that the DMO says it is having an operational impact on the submarines amid fears they will be detected by foreign navies.

  31. [dtt/507

    …..I see no use for a land based army, but would like a group of trained officers who could train and recruit 1,000 men each if needed in an emergency.]

    …the medieval model…very funny, dtt

  33. [523
    daretotread….

    the potential for WWIII is now much closer than it has been since the Cuban crisis of 1962.]

    This is not borne out by the facts. One would be hard-pressed to find a single volunteer in the NATO countries willing to fight the Russians in defense of Ukraine or Moldova. Equally, in spite of the posturing all around, fears that some uninhabited rocks in the East and South China Seas will become the source of grave military conflict are wildly exaggerated.

  35. [mikehilliard
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 7:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Abbott has a distraction. Another Royal in the pipeline.]

    Another trip overseas to personally convey Team Australia’s great joy at the news. Also an another opportunity to lecture the Scots if he arrives before the referendum next week.

  36. mikehilliard

    With the Yes vote running so strong I expect they will shortly announce the baby will be called. Hamish Sporran Haggis McKilt.

  37. briefly@528

    507
    daretotread…

    ….the most useful thing Australia can do is have efficient surveillance so we are warned of any threat. With a large coast line lots of little patrol boats is the way to go.


    little boats…also known as the Barramundi Class…an armada of tinnies…

    They could recruit Truthy and make him Admiral of the Tinnies! 😀

  38. briefly@531

    dtt/507

    …..I see no use for a land based army, but would like a group of trained officers who could train and recruit 1,000 men each if needed in an emergency.


    …the medieval model…very funny, dtt

    And overlooking all the expensive gear required and which cannot be conjured up in a hurry.

  39. [Raaraa
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
    The Project showed a few clips of Abbott visiting a factory in Queanbeyan. One of it was him talking to one of the few women in the factory on the shop floor. He had to ask, “you must be popular here?”

    Even Steve Price just hit his head on the desk at that.]

    Most of the factories in Queanbeyan are small concerns that exist to service the housing construction/refurbishment industry in the Canberra region. These Queanbeyan businesses suffer when the government takes an axe to the public service, as is happening now.

  42. Dee,

    [Cabinet Minister Christopher Pyne has suggested former staffer James Ashby may have “misinterpreted” a discussion they had in which the former staffer claims the senior liberal promised him a new job…

    Very cautious language for the Pain.]

    Reminds me of Mr Slope offering Mr Quiverful the Wardenship of Hiram’s Hospital.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKJBRrcMbp4

  43. citizen 539

    I’m curious to know how the residents of the greater Canberra will punish the Coalition if that area takes a major impact. Shame they’re almost always guaranteed a seat in ACT’s representation in the Senate.

    Not sure how this will impact the NSW side for Queanbeyan.

  44. Bemused

    What is the point of expensive equipment if you do not plan to be in a conflict soon. Fancy equipment degrades over time and may never be used. Sure have a stockpile of equipment, but it would be of more use to establish manufacturing capacity such that if needed lots of the newest and best stuff can be turned out quickly.

  45. It is alright everyone, Mark Simpkins on ABC News24 has said that the soap opera (ashbygate) will soon be over just like the PM has said.

    Sooooo I guess that is it.

  46. jeffemu

    Simpkin is a total wonker. He thinks people think what comes out of his mouth is Gospel, but alas he’s just the guy outside Parl House in a duff coat or even worse suit.

  47. [Raaraa
    Posted Monday, September 8, 2014 at 8:06 pm | PERMALINK
    citizen 539

    I’m curious to know how the residents of the greater Canberra will punish the Coalition if that area takes a major impact. Shame they’re almost always guaranteed a seat in ACT’s representation in the Senate.

    Not sure how this will impact the NSW side for Queanbeyan.]

    Others can answer this better than myself. Queanbeyan is in Eden-Monaro which tends to be a marginal seat. The areas close to the ACT I think tend to vote Labor while the areas further away (and less affected by the federal government’s actions) tend to vote for the Coalition.

  48. [It is alright everyone, Mark Simpkins on ABC News24 has said that the soap opera (ashbygate) will soon be over just like the PM has said.]

    Yep, heard that. Gutted. The ABC is but a pale imitation of it’s former self. Not worth 2c a day let alone the old 8c.

  50. Raara

    I know th3e seat of Fraser and Canberra very well. I think that if Abbott really kicks the public sector hard then the possibility of the Greens taking a senate spot moves from a day dream to reality. The Liberal vote in House of assembly elections has fallen as low as 21%

    I could well imagine a scenario such that the Libs got just 28% of the vote, Labor 45% with Greens 17% and others 10%. Labor’s transfer vote would put the greens on 28.7%. The LNP and greens would need to fight it out for the preferences of the minors.

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