Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No real change in Essential Research, but some interesting findings from both parties’ internal pollsters have emerged in the media this week.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.

Federal electoral news nuggets:

John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.

• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.

Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.

• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. Player One

    Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed@701

    Does anyone know why the date Abbott renounced his British citizenship is a secret?

    Because he didn’t?

    That’s what I’m left thinking. Can find the date etc when Gillard renounced but Abbott relied on his parents to apply for his Aust citizenship when he was 24yr old…..what a mummies baby!!!

  2. [Because he didn’t?]

    Well I don’t consider it an important issue or one I’d pursue, and your captured views of copyright and its recent criminalisation i just find inexplicable but I think you are most likely right. Rules don’t apply to Abbott and he would leave himself alternatives. It would be my view of the most likely outcome if the facts were ever known.

  3. From memory Abbott became an Australian citizen at 22 so he could access the Rhodes Scholarship, he would have to have renounced British citizenship before being elected to the HoR.

  4. [Under the Constitution he cannot be a MP let alone PM if he has not renounced.

    I consider that important]

    Well he doesn’t respect the constitution and what is a court going to do declare him unelected from the date of his first election … I don’t think so.

  5. Don’t want to buy into the ‘Is Abbott eligible to be in Parliament?” thing too much, but it is worth noting he was elected in 1994, well before the High Court ruled on the constitionality of MPs holding dual citizenship.

    It’s quite possible, therefore, that no one has ever bothered to check.

  6. AussieAchmed

    To get his Rhodes Scholarship he needed to be ‘Strayan. The only possible thing I can think of is a problem of when he applied for it and the actual date he got his Ockerhood.

    [ The real reason Anthony John ‘Tony’ Abbott waited until he was almost 24 years old to become an Australian citizen?

    Tony Abbott’s parents applied to register his birth with the Dept. of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs and apply for his citizenship, in a document/s dated 19 June 1981.
    This application appears to have been treated as urgent by departmental staff.

    His parents were subsequently informed in a letter dated 1 July 1981 that Anthony John Abbott was now deemed to be an Australian citizen under Section 11 of the Australian Citizenship Act 1948 which allowed citizenship by descent.

    At this time Tony Abbott was 23 years and 7 months of age and, had either applied for a Rhodes Scholarship or was intending to apply for this scholarship to study at Oxford University in the United Kingdom]

    http://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/the-real-reason-anthony-john-tony.html

  7. His parents applied for him to be granted Australian citizenship when he was 24 yr old. He didn’t think it important enough to do it himself.

    I can find no record of him renouncing British citizenship..

  8. WeWantPaul

    [ … your captured views of copyright and its recent criminalisation i just find inexplicable … ]

    Perhaps you would understand it if, like me, you worked in an industry that depended on intellectual property, and which would not exist if the people who generated the ideas, innovations and technologies were prevented from making money from them by clods who only know how to copy and not innovate.

  9. Zoomster

    [ It’s quite possible, therefore, that no one has ever bothered to check. ]

    Then why don’t they check now? It would take all of a few minutes to find out one way or the other.

  10. [Perhaps you would understand it if, like me, you worked in an industry that depended on intellectual property, and which would not exist if the people who generated the ideas, innovations and technologies were prevented from making money from them by clods who only know how to copy and not innovate.]

    I am curious exactly what industry you work in specifically so that you could evidence it would not exist without the absurd length of IP protection and the almost entirely unjustifiable criminalisation of non-commercial infringement.

    I’ve already said I work in an industry entirely dependent on intellectual property which does exist even though we almost never could / would pursue and infringement of it. In fact the only time it has come up recently I was denied access to documents by someone who had copied mine on the basis the wanted to protect their copyright. Me I coulda laughed.

  11. Wow, some Obama type birtherism emerging.

    The only way Abbott is going to be removed from parliament is either by voting him out, or by his own retirement.

  12. How much more lying can this guy can get away with?

    Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    JLWhitaker ‏@JL_Whitaker 6m

    Abbott saying ‘he was born under this flag’ is another lie. #flagday #auspol #730Report

  13. [ The only way Abbott is going to be removed from parliament is either by voting him out, or by his own retirement. ]

    Fess, i still think there is a reasonable chance he may step down for “health” reasons. More to do with the health of their polling but…..

  14. [bbott saying ‘he was born under this flag’ is another lie.]

    No it isn’t it is just he forgot to mention he was referring to the little bit up in the corner.

  15. Steve777

    Thought it pretty odd that Putin was reported to have agreed to a ceasefire. He met with Poroshenko in Minsk a couple of days and firmly said to Poroshenko don’t talk to me if you want a ceasefire talk to the “Novorossiya representatives”.

  16. imacca:

    Maybe. But we’ve been speculating about the state of Abbott’s health for years now, and still he keeps doing these fun runs and cycling thingies. And he’s still leader of the Liberal party.

  17. What Vlad’s Kremlin page says, so far.

    [Telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

    September 3, 2014, 10:00

    Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.

    The two presidents continued their detailed discussion of the military and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and exchanged views on priority steps needed to bring about a swift end to the bloodshed in Ukraine’s southeast.

    Mr Putin and Mr Poroshenko expressed to a large extent similar views on possible ways out of the crisis.
    September 3, 2014, 10:00 ]
    http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/22893

  18. Call me cynical but did anyone hear in question time today when Madame Speaker Old Kerohead welcomed to the house 15 members of the defence force who were working with designated members of the house as part of a certain scheme.

    Seems a strange one to me.

  19. Shit, all I did was ask a question when after being asked the question by my daughter and then unable to find the answer. Then present some facts in response to others.

    Sorry, I thought the combined knowledge of the people here would be able to provide an answer and mature response…how wrong I was…there are still idiots here..

  20. I doubt this citizenship issue will unseat a PM, despite what happened to Heather Hill back in 98.

    I do however think he should be referred to as “that whinging Pommy bastard”.

  21. WeWantPaul

    [ I’ve already said I work in an industry entirely dependent on intellectual property which does exist even though we almost never could / would pursue and infringement of it. ]

    And I have already said that my industry – a multi-billion dollar one here in Australia alone – would not exist at all if we did not vigorously protect our intellectual property. What do you find so difficult to understand about that?

  22. 703, 709 and 710

    The reason that Abbott`s parents were the ones applying is presumably that, as the quoting in 709 mentions, is that his citizenship is by decent.

  23. The Oath of Allegiance required at the time Abbott became a citizen specifically included a renunciation of all other allegiances.

    [SCHEDULE 2
    Section15
    OATH OF ALLEGIANCE

    I, A. B., renouncing all other allegiance, swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Elizabeth the Second, Queen of Australia, Her heirs and successors according to law, and that I will faithfully observe the laws of Australia and fulfil my duties as an Australian citizen.]

    http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2004C02041

  24. 737

    Since the Queen of Australia and the UK are the same, there could be an argument that allegiance to the Queen of the UK is not inconsistent with allegiance to the Queen of Australia.

    Also renouncing British Citizenship is a British procedure, not an Australian one.

  25. Well knock me down with a feather! Just when i thought it would never be mentioned or spoken of ever again.

    This Sunday on 60 minutes reveals the secret plot in the Slipper saga. And guess what Ashby reveals all!!

  26. My last word on it. I can find reference to Gillard renouncing her citizenship

    “As a result Gillard held dual Australian/British citizenship until she renounced her British citizenship prior to entering Parliament in 1998.”

    But not Abbott, and applications to Dept Immigration under FOI are denied.

    What’s to hide?

  27. victoria:

    No! 😮

    If we didn’t laugh at this shit we’d be curled in a foetal position feral screaming at anyone who got near us.

    The reason I rarely watch TV anymore: there just isn’t anything on worth watching.

  28. Tom

    although I think ru has knocked the whole issue on the head, there was a specific case where it was found that a federal MP cannot, under the constitution, be a British citizen.

  29. confessions

    I am still in a state of shock. I have had a look at the 60 minutes website but cant see any reference to it. I want to be sure i did not misunderstand the promo

  30. 730
    jeffemu
    [Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 8:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Call me cynical but did anyone hear in question time today when Madame Speaker Old Kerohead welcomed to the house 15 members of the defence force who were working with designated members of the house as part of a certain scheme.

    Seems a strange one to me.]

    Were you able to ascertain what the scheme was called?

  31. [He could invade the ACT, full of Commies and Greens and think tanky thingos.]

    He might have to lead a “police action” in WA, they’re sounding a bit bolshie these days and after all they’ve previously voted to seceede just like Donetsk!

  32. [Why have intellectual property if other people could use it?]

    I’ve had cause to ring around the country the last few weeks requesting permission from various governments and universities to adapt surveys they’ve used in the past to the unique circumstances of our community here. Why reinvent the wheel when others have already trod the same path previously, and you can use their work to avoid unnecessary effort?

    I’ve not had any govt/uni refuse. I only requested permission because they’re going to be online, and seeing as anyone can find just about anything on the internet these days, figured I’d cover myself by seeking permission from the survey creators.

    Reckon if I’d gone cavalier and just adapted them regardless, then murphy being murphy, there’d be blowback for my employer. A simple email or phone call dealt with all that. It isn’t hard, and the ACT govt was even chuffed that I’d found their survey, much less want to use it over here. 🙂

  33. 744

    Citizenship and allegiance are not the same thing.

    That would be the Heather Hill case, in 1998, where the aforesaid One Nation Candidate was ruled disqualified because of her British citizenship.

    As I said, in post that seems to have disappeared (possibly at my end), how do we know how thorough the Liberals were in their checks? Did Abbott deceive them?

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