This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.
Federal electoral news nuggets:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.
• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.
• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.
• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.
Zoomster,
Which is probably why it is now the World Game. Entry is free.
Puff, the Magic Dragon @ 606
I regret the demise of a good set of cricket whites. They make a man look like a man.
& shellbell @ 611
Cricketing creams are even better
Yes, whites or creams are an absolute must, and they have to be flannel – there should be none of that drawstring synthetic pyjama gear.
Note that traditional baseball gear was also made from wool flannel.
[poroti
Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 4:39 pm | Permalink
dave
I’m sure Vlad will enjoy adding Tony’s name to “The List”. ]
No doubt well on the list, poroti.
Just wait until he is asked/ demanded to pony up troops as well.
Another ‘captains pick’
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@648
Interestingly, cricket is popular in India for similar reasons, despite its history as a prestigious sport coming from the UK.
@Nic/640
Not to mention that FOFA Laws, higher debt (student loans, HECS etc) Super, etc are all related to Finance Sector.
Perhaps we also need a RC into the Finance sector, because to me it’s all too dodgy.
[ zoomster
Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 5:30 pm | Permalink
Soccer is the only ball game I know where all you need is two people, a ball and a ‘goal’ (two marks) to play. Three can have an excellent game (with three goals – ‘three sided soccer’ is the best fun).
]
—————————————————–
Comedian George Carlin on sport :
…To my way of thinking there are really only three sports: baseball, basketball, and football. Everything else is either a game or an activity.
Soccer. Soccer is not a sport because you can’t use your arms. Anything where you can’t use your arms can’t be a sport.
Polo isn’t a sport. Polo is golf on horseback. Without holes. It’s a great concept, but not a sport.
Swimming. Swimming isn’t a sport. Swimming is a way to keep from drowning. That’s just common sense. Sailing isn’t a sport. Sailing is a way to get somewhere. Riding the bus isn’t a sport, why the f**k should sailing be a sport?
Darts could have been a sport, because at least there’s a chance to put someone’s eye out. But, alas, darts will never be a sport, because the whole object of the game is to reach zero, which goes against all sports logic.
Then you have tennis. Tennis is very trendy and very fruity, but it’s not a sport. It’s just a way to meet other trendy fruits. Technically, tennis is an advanced form a Ping-Pong. In fact, tennis is Ping-Pong played while standing on the table. Great concept, not a sport.
Hockey comes to mind. People think hockey is a sport. It’s not. Hockey is three activities taking place at the same time: ice skating, fooling around with a puck, and beating the shit out of somebody. If these guys had more brains then teeth, they’d do these things one at a time. First go ice-skating, then fool around with a puck, then you go to the bar and beat the shit out of somebody. The day would last longer, and these guys would have a lot more fun. Another reason why hockey isn’t a sport is that it’s not played with a ball. Anything not played with a ball can’t be a sport.
PJK has his two bobs worth re Super changes
[This isn’t their first superannuation betrayal
By Paul Keating
The Liberal party has always opposed universal superannuation, and as it revealed yesterday through its deal with the Palmer United Party, it still does, writes Paul Keating in this public statement]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-03/keating-superannuation-betrayal/5717070
638
Tom, your comment was (verbatim):
[Russia is also generally on the Russian side, while definitely not a satellite, in most disagreements between Russia and the West.]
It was likely a typo on your part. No big deal.
Raaraa
I suppose you can make a cricket bat easily enough, I have seen some interesting home made ones. The footballs in Aussie Rules have to be a certain shape. I assume a Rugby ball can be anything too but small-frame kids would not get much of look in.
[ I can take Kiev in two weeks, Vladimir Putin warns European leaders
The Russian president is reported to have boasted his forces could sweep into Kiev in a fortnight if he wanted to as Nato announced it would build a new “spearhead” rapid reaction force ]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11069070/I-can-take-Kiev-in-two-weeks-Vladimir-Putin-warns-European-leaders.html
[Yes, whites or creams are an absolute must, and they have to be flannel – there should be none of that drawstring synthetic pyjama gear.]
Way to go!
A previous poster mentioned China in relation to Russia and the Ukraine.
The official Chinese attitude is (presumably) set out in this opinion piece. It is extremely non-committal regarding Russia, Ukraine and the EU (but does take a dig at the US). Team Australia is not mentioned!
[The conflicting parties are expecting China to take a clear stance in this crisis. However, China has no deciding role in this conflict. No matter what side China takes, it won’t be able to make the other side give in.
The EU, Ukraine and Russia are becoming tired of the conflicts. But Washington is not worried much, as the drawn-out crisis will only exhaust the parties on the east and west sides of Ukraine.
No matter how much Ukraine resents Russia, they are still neighbors. Ukraine has to be cautious not to become a chess piece for the West to edge out Russian influence. Also, Russia should avoid making Ukraine its permanent enemy.]
Peoples Daily 31 August
Kakuru
I think we agree that the real issue is the choice of the people. The problem you face is where countries have borders which are not sensible and cut through ethnic/language social groups.
Ukraine is made up of large swags of ethnic Russians with a very strong commitment to Russia and much, much less in common with Ukraine. In that sense the shift of Crimea was a bit of a no brainer as something like 70% of the people are ethnic Russians with no affinity at all to Ukraine. Had there been a vote when the USSR dissolved Crimea would certainly have chosen to stay Russian.
The problem in the rest of Ukraine is more difficult because the population is more mixed. My own view is that there should be a fair and free vote state by state or even smaller if there are clear ethnic/religious/language divides. If the vote comes up as 70% or more for either joining Russia, becoming independent or stay with Ukraine, then that should be final, although there may be some arrangements for helping people who are very unhappy to relocate without excessive economic disadvantage eg house swaps.
Where the vote is less clear cut ie 50-70% I would argue that it stays but be revisited in 5 or 10 years. This removes any influence that force or fear may have had. On this second vote I would say that anything over 60% holds and becomes final. Between 50-60% I would argue for a repeat in 15 years. If the third vote is still indecisive I think I will still opt for repeat. It keeps whoever rules in line so there can be no oppression or mismanagement.
647
The Government does not appoint the Speaker. The Speaker, as happens in practically every other legislative chamber (apart from the US Senate and any copycat upper houses under presidential systems), is elected by that chamber at the start of the term. If the Coalition was forced out and the ALP got in then the Coalition Speaker would continue unless she resigned (quite possible) or was voted out (unlikely). The worst thing that could happen would be a slightly early election and just over 3 year next term (depending on the interpretation of the ambiguous early election provision), if confidence was removed from Napthine or the ALP and no new government able to get confidence in the required 8 days and the election had to be held 2 or 3 weeks early.
Removing confidence would place the government in caretaker mode and stop contract signing (especially for the East-West Link and the ALP will suffer if they go to the election with the contracts signed and no promise to cancel the project).
Michael Ware on The Drum was well worth watching.
[605
davidwh
History shows it is safer to leave the Eastern Europeans alone to solve their problems. Nothing good will come from the West getting involved military.
Just too scary to contemplate.]
The Crimean War still being fresh in their memory, the French and British would likely want to agree with you. Nor has Germany forgotten either Stalingrad or Leningrad.
Just the same, Ukraine appears likely to join NATO, in which case any aggression by Russia against Ukraine would be taken as an attack on all the NATO countries. This means the situation is far more dangerous than it might appear to be.
We should consider ourselves lucky that Abbott was talked out of sending any forces to Ukraine in the aftermath of MH17. Had Australian forces been permitted to take up positions around the crash site in Eastern Ukraine, it is possible they would already be engaged against Russian irregular/regular forces and, most likely, would have incurred casualties. There would be no strategic logic to this at all even if the political calculus is painfully obvious.
The ABC news reported today that we are opening a temporary embassy in Kiev and that Abbott intends to offer military “capacity-building” to Ukraine. This is just astonishing. It would be completely risible were it not for the fact that blood is already being spilled by Russian and Ukrainian soldiers.
Today is the 75th anniversary of the start of WW2. August was also the centenary month of the commencement of WWI, a war started with almost surreal complacency. It seems Abbott has learned nothing from either of those wars would like Australia to be in the field if any new hostilities erupt in Europe. He has already suggested he would be well-inclined towards fighting China in any more local conflict. He really is frighteningly crazy.
Briefly
I can agree with you completely which is good.
The other obvious issue is that if Europe goes in too strongly against Russia they had better hope it is not a cold winter because Russia will cut gas supply. I am not sure how quickly Europe could get substitute supply.
663
daretotread
This is all utterly disingenuous. The idea of free plebiscites can make no sense as long as Russia is infringing Ukrainian sovereignty.
Russia should withdraw. All the peoples of Eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea would agree that Russia is completely out of line.
Agreed, daretotread. But I don’t think NATO will let Ukraine join until its border disputes with Russia are resolved. Ditto for Georgia. NATO does not want to get entangled in European wars in states where the frontiers are unsettled; it has bigger fish to fry.
From a NATO membership standpoint, Ukraine relinquishing Crimea is a given. Donetsk etc are less clear-cut. Putin grabbing Crimea and a chunk of coal-rich eastern Ukraine may be the price Kiev pays for NATO (and EU) membership.
“@abcnews: #BREAKING: Ukraine says it has reached a ‘permanent’ ceasefire deal with Russia”
briefly
[Russia should withdraw. All the peoples of Eastern Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea would agree that Russia is completely out of line.]
I agree that Putin is totally out of line. But there is an element of realpolitik to all this. Crimea is already lost, and there is nothing the US or NATO can do about it.
The US and NATO (and Kiev) has to pick their battles. How far will they go to keep all of eastern Ukraine in Kiev’s hands? If Putin trades a piece of eastern Ukraine in return for agreeing to let Ukraine joining NATO – would the US and NATO jump at the chance? Still a hypothetical… but it’s difficult to tell how much of Putin’s rhetoric is just posturing.
[…drawstring synthetic pyjama gear]
or the awful elastic waist
Did I get this right?
Has Genghis Abbott decided to send 200 troops BACK into Afghanistan without the rest of Australian noticing?
We are sending troops in planes into Kurdistan, presumably in the hope that someone will shoot at them so that us goodies can shoot back.
We are sending troops into Kiev for training purposes (that’s how we started in the Vietnam quagmire). This is Generalissimo Abbott’s second go at getting boots on the ground in the Ukraine. The first time around some sensible people persuaded him not to be a dickhead. They have failed in their duty this time around. What happens if the Russians kill some of our squaddies? What is our chocco general’s exit strategy? Declare war on the Russian Federation?
We are planning for troops to put their boots on the ground in the fertile crescent so that they can act as target masters.
We have sort of joined up with a military organisation called NATO which has only ever had one objective: contain Russia. Russia, of course, has huge direct relevance to the Australian national interest. Inter alia, it fought long and bloody war against assorted jihadis in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Russia has sent Su-25s to Iraq, presumably with Russian pilots flying them, in order to bomb the orthodox bejesus into ISIL caliphate staff.
Abbott is just itching to send Growlers somewhere to bomb the bejesus into somebody.
Our budget is in crisis and still Abbott is pissing away Australian treasure messing about with war and the rumours of war.
I warned youse again and again that this sociopathic rotten apple was a warmonger.
Shorter realipolitik?
Putin has Ukraine and the EEU by the fossil fuel short and curlies.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 1m
We have boardrooms in this country filled with the sorts of people who think wind farms cause flatulence and science is witchcraft
bw
Yes. However Putin has lost. There is now more demand for “buffer” “vassal” states to join NATO that were not signed up already.
guytaur
No, that can’t happen – – how can Abbott start a war if there’s a ceasefire?
China has had a long-standing foreign affairs rule of thumb that it minds its own business and expects other states to do the same.
That said, the Chinese also have a way of signalling what they sort of think about issues of the day.
In this case they are basically telling everyone that China and Russia are sort of friends for now, and that China doesn’t really care too much that Putin is distracting himself from where China is going vis-a-vis the power balance between Russia and China. Plus the Chinese are happy that Putin weakening Russia’s global relationships by fart arsing around in the Ukraine. Wins as far as the eye can see for the Chinese.
Meanwhile, the Sinification of Russia’s far eastern populations proceeds apace.
http://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6a6b90.html
zoomster
Way to bring it home 😀
I wouldn’t be surprised if all the journalists held by the militants have been killed, and the videos are being put out when most useful to the killers.
If Putin annexes parts of the Eastern Ukraine, the international response will be the same as when he annexed the Crimea.
He has his puppet Govt in place, but they were overthrown by idealists who thought Russia would let them join the EU and Nato. After 98 deaths they got to depose the Govt and impose another (legitimate elections?).
The Ukrainian economy is becoming a basket case thus the EU won’t touch them with a barge pole. The civil war prevents any admission to NATO in any role.
So the overthrow of the Govt earlier this year achieved… ? What?
[guytaur
Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 6:17 pm | PERMALINK
“@abcnews: #BREAKING: Ukraine says it has reached a ‘permanent’ ceasefire deal with Russia”]
These outbreaks of peace are most inconvenient for the warmongers. The captain of Team Oz now runs the risk of appearing like a shag on a rock after his announcement today to send military aid to Ukraine. He may also need to welcome Putin to G20.
zoonster
[how can Abbott start a war if there’s a ceasefire?]
He “rescued” the Yazidis on Mt Sinjar after they had been recued so it should be easy for him .
The most important thing of course for Abbott is to keep the Jihadist, Ukraine etc. rhetoric going until next weekend’s Newspoll.
[BREAKING NEWS Ukraine says it has reached a ‘permanent’ ceasefire deal with Russia]
Does this means Abbott will resume sales of uranium that we never sold in the first place?
ruawake: per capita income is aggregate income divided by population
@abcnews: Video: @PalmerUtdParty’s @LambieJacqui calls for Royal Commission into ‘toxic culture of coverup’ in Defence http://t.co/JR9KhibBaJ
[ruawake: per capita income is aggregate income divided by population]
What is aggregate income, pre tax, post tax. Is income from assets included or just wages, what investments are included as income?
Shorter realipolitik?
Putin has Ukraine and the EEU by the fossil fuel short and curlies.
Another advantage of solar power…no-one can cut off the sun….like they can oil/gas etc
Shock finding! The CO2 price was working.
[Carbon emissions from the country’s main electricity grid have risen since the end of the carbon tax by the largest amount in nearly eight years]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/emissions-from-energy-generation-jump-most-in-eight-years-after-carbon-price-axed-20140903-10by8d.html#ixzz3CEzpn6Gz
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/emissions-from-energy-generation-jump-most-in-eight-years-after-carbon-price-axed-20140903-10by8d.html
ruawake
And resuming selling them all those weapons wot they didn’t buy . Not to mention the ban on oil and gas sales to the world’s largest producer of oil and gas.
The Russians are always slow to countries they occupy. It was around 50 years before they got out of Lithuania
Russia has high debt:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-02/russia-pulls-7th-debt-sale-as-sanctions-concern-weighs-on-bonds.html#disqus_thread
After the Ukraine/Russia ceasefire, the next opportunity for the captain of Team Oz to launch a military incursion could be if Scotland votes for independence.
He could send troops to the north of England just in case the newly independent Scotland decided to invade.
After the Ukraine/Russia ceasefire, the next opportunity for the captain of Team Oz to launch a military incursion could be if Scotland votes for independence.
He could send troops to the north of England just in case the newly independent Scotland decided to invade.
He could send troops to the north of England just in case the newly independent Scotland decided to invade.
I hear the penguins are getting a bit uppity. Perhaps that’s an option
He could invade the ACT, full of Commies and Greens and think tanky thingos.
Markets up and then down on the reports over Russia/Ukraine not having a ceasefire..
Someone is obviously benefiting from it.
ruawake
Perhaps NZ, full of gay marrying carbon taxing climate change believing subversives ?
AussieAchmed@689
Nuclear Winter, anyone?