Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No real change in Essential Research, but some interesting findings from both parties’ internal pollsters have emerged in the media this week.

This week’s fortnightly rolling average result from Essential Research has both major parties up a point on the primary vote (the Coalition to 40%, Labor to 38%), both minor parties down a point (the Greens to 9%, Palmer United to 5%), and two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 to Labor. The poll also has 57% saying the threat to Australia from terrorism has increased over the past few years with only 6% saying it has decreased, and 33% opting for stayed about the same; 56% approving of government spending to reduce the threat of terrorism versus 24% disapproving; 57% rating the contribution of multiculturalism to Australian society as positive versus 30% negative; 63% believing prospective migrants should not be rejected on the basis of religion versus 21% who say they should; and strong support for a greater emphasis on solar, wind and hydro power in providing for domestic energy, a neutral result for gas, and highly negative results for nuclear and especially coal.

Federal electoral news nuggets:

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Senators Stephen Conroy and Kim Carr are facing opposition within their respective Right and Left factions over their determination to seek another term at the next federal election. Partly at issue is Labor’s affirmative action requirement that at least 40 per cent of winnable seats go to women. Under a party rule to take effect on January 1, a spill of all preselections will occur if the requirement isn’t met. Rosie Lewis of The Australian reports that some in the ALP believe the Carr and Conroy preselections are being fast-tracked to lock them in before the rule takes effect. Carr is quoted saying the requirement will be satisfied by giving the third position on the ticket to a woman, but the result of the last election suggests the winnability of a third seat for Labor is doubtful for as long as the existing electoral system remains in place.

• The Courier-Mail reports that“federal Liberal and National MPs unhappy with the performance of Nationals deputy leader Barnaby Joyce” are planning to thwart his succession to the Nationals leadership by drafting Lawrence Springborg, the Queensland Health Minister and former Opposition Leader. This would be achieved by having Springborg succeed Bruce Scott as member for Maranoa, a seat Joyce had his eye on last term as he sought to make his move from the upper house to the lower.

• Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports a Labor internal poll of 600 respondents by UMR Research shows it leading 54-46 in the eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck, held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt on a margin of 4.9%. Primary votes are cited of 40% for Labor and 37% for the Liberals. Aggregated polling for the three months after the budget, from May to July, is reported to show swings to Labor in WA of 12 points on the primary vote and 7.7% on two-party preferred.

• The Financial Review reports results from Coalition pollsters Crosby Textor showing a surge in support for the Renewable Energy Target, an increase in the salience of the environment as a political issue, and a decline for immigration.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Fess

    This tweet confirms it

    [Neil McMahon @NeilMcMahon
    Follow
    Sixty Minutes advertising “dynamite” claims re Slipper/Ashby case this Sunday – with Ashby in the talking chair. #60Mins @60Mins
    8:21 PM – 3 Sep 2014]

  2. zoomster@744

    Tom

    although I think ru has knocked the whole issue on the head, there was a specific case where it was found that a federal MP cannot, under the constitution, be a British citizen.

    How has ru knocked it on the head? If Abbott had renounced his UK citizenship, the evidence would be clear and unequivocal.

    It apparently isn’t. Or at least it’s a state secret for some reasons.

    Personally, I think the worst we would find is that Abbott was not actually eligible for his Rhodes scholarship. The man is a chronic sponger and rorter, and would think nothing of applying when he didn’t actually qualify.

  3. vic:

    The Slipper case offered exactly the kind of lascivious drama-lama style angle shows like 60 Minutes fall over themselves to get hold of.

    Only problem is the drama part when it was newsworthy and deserving of attention is now well and truly passed, and completely irrelevant.

  5. Tom@738:

    [Since the Queen of Australia and the UK are the same, there could be an argument that allegiance to the Queen of the UK is not inconsistent with allegiance to the Queen of Australia.]

    The argument has been made, and the High Court has decided otherwise (in Sue v. Hill).

  7. 732

    The High Court cannot unseat MPs and Senators unless their candidacy or election is challenged either before or no more than 40 days after the return of writs for that term because between then, it is the relevant parliamentary chamber`s exclusive domain. However disqualified MP or Senator could still be sued for $200 per day in the High Court.

    The other difference with the Hill case is that that was a Senate seat, where the seat would be filled by the second on the ticket at an election challenge (like when Hill was challenged) or by the relevant state parliament if it was a casual vacancy, while Abbott is in the HoR where a by-election could be held and Abbott could renounce his Citizenship in time for the close of nominations.

  8. Fess

    I am utterly surprised that channel 9 are even doing the story. All i can think of is Ashby told them he had a dynamite story to tell for a price.

  12. Two weeks ago, in response to yet another credit rating downgrade, the Emperor said the govt wouldn’t tolerate a fire sale of assets in order to raise quick revenue.

    Today however it’s a new story.

    [The West Australian government is aiming for a quick sale of assets as it struggles to rein in debt, with the premier tipping the Perth Market Authority will be first to go.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24890819/asset-sales-will-be-swift-premier-says/

  13. [Perhaps you would understand it if, like me, you worked in an industry that depended on intellectual property, and which would not exist if the people who generated the ideas, innovations and technologies were prevented from making money from them by clods who only know how to copy and not innovate.]

    But they’re not being prevented from making money. Which is partly the point. Here’s a link to why the most pirated show is also one of the most successful. And why they have a more realistic assessment of the creative industries than you and Erica Betz (or is it George Brandis, their heads are indistinguishable). Bruce Springsteen has pretty much every song he’s ever recorded and concert he’s ever put on freely available on the internet. He earnt $85 million dollars last year. It is not as clear cut as you portray. Stealing everything is not OK. Pretending that downloading something from the internet is an outrageous crime is bollocks.

    http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/why-hbo-doesnt-care-that-game-of-thrones-is-the-most-pirated-show-ever

  14. 755

    The Hill case was after the Australia Act 1986 and Abbott because a citizen before that. It could still be up in the air.

    Looking again at 709, Abbott was not naturalised ( certainly requiring the oath quoted in 737) but gained citizenship by decent when his parents applied. Thus I do not believe Abbott was required to take said oath.

  15. victoria:

    I kinda lost track of how things wound up for Ashby. Maybe the court proceedings finished with him owing scads of money to other parties, hence his “dynamite” interview with 60mins?

    Either way, I still think Slipper and the taxpayers were the real losers. All that legal and court time and action for what essentially represented a paltry amount of money.

  16. For anyone interested in the debate about Senate preferencing, Electoral Reform Australia have responded to my response to them and I have now responded again!

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/senate-preferencing-reform-reply-to.html

    (all bloody long, but summary at the start for those who’ve not seen it before at all)

    Also another monster has been unleashed this week and I won’t be doing *that* again for another 4 years:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/hobart-city-council-voting-patterns.html

    Hobart City Council Voting Patterns, 2011-4.

  17. davidwh

    Yes they were. I was so shocked. You may remember our long discussions during the time with references to Wyatt Roy and Mal Brough

  18. confessions

    The whole Ashby Slipper case was set up to bring down the labor govt. Simple as that. The truth never was revealed. I would love to believe that the 60 minutes story does in fact reveal this in its entirety. It would indeed rock the current govt

  19. Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    me and my two cents ‏@mytwocentsandme 9h

    Abbott: “I don’t do deals with minor parties. I do deals with miner parties.”

  21. [ The whole Ashby Slipper case was set up to bring down the labor govt. Simple as that. The truth never was revealed. I would love to believe that the 60 minutes story does in fact reveal this in its entirety. It would indeed rock the current govt ]

    Will be interesting to see what he comes up with and just who he dumps on for the money 60 minutes will be paying him, but i think if you want truth from 60 minutes you are being a bit of an optimist Vic.

    Would be hilarious if it turns out the likes of Pyne have “questions to answer” in the aftermath. 🙂

  22. If Abbott has renounced his British citizenship, this is an easy test to prove.

    If in fact he hasn’t, it’s pretty easy for him to renounce it, and then face a by-election in which he will easily win in his safe seat.

    I think this is more of a character test. The “let’s do away with it if I don’t think I’ll get caught” scenario.

  26. victoria:

    Of course. Hence my doing bug eyes and somewhat cynical attitude towards the supposedly dynamite revelations being revealed now, a couple of years after the period when such revelations may have actually been dynamite.

    Brough has been non existent in the new parliament though, as has Roy. Remember how Roy was constantly featured in coalition questions and media spruiking in the last parliament? And I’ve not seen or heard from Brough since the election campaign.

  27. FarQU

    [ Stealing everything is not OK. Pretending that downloading something from the internet is an outrageous crime is bollocks. ]

    Justify your petty thievery however you will. If my industry (which is not this industry) allowed our intellectual property to be stolen in the same way, we would lose billions, and tens of thousands would be out of work.

  31. @Player One/777

    LOL scare mongering about jobs is the Coalition Party way.

    Piracy does not increase loss of jobs or lose billions of dollars.

    Its crap music, crap movies and crap software/games that damage the industry, as well as old outdated laws.

    Why do you think concerts still exist today, if the piracy industry was such rampant, people wouldn’t be paying $300+ for tickets (or even travel to another country just to see their favorite bands).

    I’m in the IT Industry, piracy doesn’t kill, it promotes.

    The funny thing is, the so called digital disruption (which anti-piracy companies say) is disrupting sales when it is not.

    i.e. https://torrentfreak.com/piracy-isnt-hurting-the-entertainment-industry-121003/
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21856720

    Anti-Piracy groups immediately dismiss the findings as always.

    It shows the same level of contempt when Coalition Party ignores science in general.

  32. 780

    I agree entirely. That is why in 738 I said “Also renouncing British Citizenship is a British procedure, not an Australian one.”. However I was refuting claims that Abbott took and oath to become an Australian Citizen.

  33. [citizen
    Posted Wednesday, September 3, 2014 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
    …

    He could send troops to the north of England just in case the newly independent Scotland decided to invade.
    ]
    I’m sure captain vegimite will find something.

  37. [Justify your petty thievery however you will. If my industry (which is not this industry) allowed our intellectual property to be stolen in the same way, we would lose billions, and tens of thousands would be out of work.]

    Your scenario may or may not be true. But the point which you keep missing, is that this thievery is not in fact costing billions or throwing thousands out of work, therefore blanket views that all downloading is criminal and will destroy the known universe, are simply not true. The argument that every download is a sale denied is simply untrue, and the argument that downloading is only a cost is likewise not true.

    I don’t mind the odd bit of pilfering from billion-dollar corporations who use their power to overcharge consumers, minimise their tax, seek to drive down wages and distort the policy process.

  40. FarQU

    [ I don’t mind the odd bit of pilfering from billion-dollar corporations who use their power to overcharge consumers, minimise their tax, seek to drive down wages and distort the policy process. ]

    Yes, this is the argument everyone uses to justify their own pilfering. The fact that if these corporations did not take steps to prevent this occurring on a large scale there would be much less for you to pilfer seems to escape you.

  42. zoidlord

    [ And because of Anti-piracy group efforts, it seems that transitioning from traditional sales (e.g. CDs) to digital sales, it seems now that streaming (such as Spotify) is a popular way to get music music from.

    http://www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/legal-and-management/6041328/nielsens-q1-numbers-sales-down-streams-up ]

    This is simply technological innovation. The streams are still copyrighted, and still return revenue to the artists. I think this is great – and it has nothing whatsoever to do with an argument about copyright.

  43. ru awake: income from all sources – from labour, from investments. I would set the Universal Basic Income at 25 percent of pre-tax per capita income.

    Do you believe that the current income support system works efficiently? Do you believe that incentives to work depend on the threat of poverty and desperation – or do you believe that people are motivated by other things such as the dignity of work, intellectual and social stimulation, a sense of contributing to society, commitment to a collaborative endeavour, and so on?

    It’s clear that our economy is sufficiently advanced to generate enough income so that everybody has a basic income, guaranteed and unconditional. We don’t need to muck around with the current hodgepodge of income support schemes where people have to jump through hoops and get stressed and stigmatized and humiliated. If a universal basic income were in place people would still have financial incentives to work – it’s nice to have more comforts and options in life than you’d have from 25 percent of per capita income. And the non-financial motivations for work are very strong.

    In my view people would be more productive and healthier, and our society more cohesive and trusting, if the income required for basic living were decoupled from work.

  45. @Player One/786

    Large amounts of piracy exist because of external factors (such as governments and studios) not moving into 21st century with the population.

    This is what happens when governments/studios sit on their arses with head in sand.

    Like not having a proper broadband network to cope with digital transition OR having laws from 10 years ago (like the DMCA take downs) that has done nothing to steam the tide.

    Your argument Player One is “silly”. How do you say that small amount of piracy is ok, when Anti-piracy companies and lobbyists don’t want nothing of it at all?

    That also does not work in real life, when police say, “a small amount of bit of crime is ok”, right? No, thought so.

    You can’t say that’s not right analogy, because that analogy is what Anti-piracy companies say you wouldn’t steal a car, right?

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