Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers bayside Brisbane north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – together with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park east through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), although the margin was little affected.
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| Red and teal numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Labor and the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but it was otherwise usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won the seat and then consolidated her hold with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as Labor’s member in 1993, but was unseated together with all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues at the 1996 election.
Swan returned to parliament at the following election in 1998, when he accounted for a 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%), consistent with a trend in inner urban seats across the country. The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%. Labor’s dire polling throughout its second term in government, particularly in Queensland, led to grave fears about his capacity to retain the seat in 2013, but in the event Lilley provided the party with one of its pleasant election night surprises by swinging only 1.9%, enabling Swan to hang on with a margin of 1.3%.
Swan’s path to parliament began with a position as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to his former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to Treasury after the 2004 election defeat, and retained it in government despite suggestions Rudd had promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.
Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, a rivalry developed between Swan and Kevin Rudd with the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter forming part of the Right’s “old guard”. Swan was in the camp opposed Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s move against Beazley in December 2009, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and the three leadership crises which transpired in 2012 and 2013. As Rudd marshalled forces for his first push in February 2012, Swan spoke of his “dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people including our caucus colleagues”. When Rudd finally succeeded in toppling Gillard in June 2013, Swan immediately resigned as deputy leader and Treasurer. Unlike many of his colleagues he resolved to continue his career in parliament, which he has continued to do in opposition on the back bench.
Henry
So, an ETS was always Labor policy. Have you suffered a knock to the head or something recently.
It’s the Greens on their insistence on a carbon tax and their opposition to an ETS (CPRS) that’s destroyed any sane vote they ever attracted.
Just say you don’t have the knowledge to bet on the country’s most popular code centre and leave it at that. 😉
Centre, labor under Rudd walked away from an ETS remember?
Gillard and the greens brought it back via the carbon price mechanism.
Keep up.
Rossmore@545
Just checked my copy, published by George Allen and Unwin, and it has no errant apostrophe. Either the Doubleday published version has or Amazon is wrong.
Well actually Henry, the NRL outperforms the AFL on television ratings so whichever is the more popular is debatable.
Rossmore,
If this is about hating Putin cos he is a piece of shit, then thats ok, do that. I think he’s a piece of shit.
But the way people jumped on Putin after this fecked up mass murder happened was just ridiculous.
People were quick to condemn on the flimsiest of evidence in exactly the same way that shock jock talkback drones are.
People are claiming he (meaning his government) supplied the missiles, as if its fact, when there are serious doubts.
They should wait till credible people present real evidence before making judgements. Something happened in a war zone ffs. People who are so savvy when it comes to the flaws in our media suddenly think the first rumours coming out of a horrific event in a contested place are gonna be 100% true and accurate?
This is not a contest to be first to say “I told you so.”
Acknowledging these things and others does not mean I’m rationalis(ing) and justify(ing) the horror that is Putin.
[At the end of the day, you have a choice, are you for or agin him?]
Usually when someone presents me with that choice about someone who isn’t actually threatening me I choose the third option.
I understand you are upset and the senseless waste of it is closer to you than most of the rest of us, but I’ve listed more things Putin has done that deserve condemnation than some people here who seem to be jumping on a bandwagon cos they don’t like Russians.
At some point soon we will have actual evidence of what happened and why and we can all make some valid judgements (even if they are unenforceable) till then its just someones opinion.
Rudd’s CPRS is not ETS in the true sense with that many free permits given and so many concessions to polluters.
Henry
The only Party to ever walk away from practical action on climate change were the Greens with their refusal to support the CPRS.
Loony pie in the sky policies such as their (Greens) carbon tax never last.
*night
[If you treat people like animals you shouldn’t be surprised they behave as animals.]
WTF??
Ah poor poor centre and his obsession (or should I say insecurity) about the Greens! 🙂
Like it or not, Shorten could not have been clearer in his post repeal presser that Labor would be taking establishing an ETS to the next election. There was nothing ambiguous, no ifs buts or maybes about it, and of course, he was absolutely right to do that. The Liberals will scream for the next two years that Labor will bring back the “carbon tax”, whatever Labor says. Labor’s best policy is to be straight with the electorate. If they follow your advice from the other day and say nothing re climate change and carbon pricing, that will be a gift for Abbott that will keep on giving and giving and giving. Fortunately, I don’t believe Labor will be silly enough to follow that course of action.
The entire Gaza is a warzone as far as anything is concerned.
Having an internet discussion on the Palestinian conflict is futile, when you say you feel sorry for the children and feel outraged at the death of innocent lives, immediately some tar you as supporters of extremists and terrorists.
So, no Ghost post?
Centre – AFL creams NRL on ratings on whatever metric you wish to choose.
– Crowds, AFL 50% bigger.
– Membership, AFL 75% bigger.
– TV ratings. AFL GF 40% bigger.
NRL slightly ahead on pay tv as a: there are more games on foxtel for NRL and b: no one goes to their games live anymore.
QED
@centre
One was a fixed price, the other a floating price. The agreement between Labor and the Greens meant starting with a fixed price, moving to a floating price. That’s all that ever had to be said. It was not the Greens who referred to the mechanism as a “tax”, it was Julia Gillard. She was the one, sadly, who handed that priceless gift to Abbott, nobody else.
[It’s the Greens on their insistence on a carbon tax and their opposition to an ETS (CPRS) that’s destroyed any sane vote they ever attracted.]
The Greens have always supported an ETS.
In 2009 the Greens Party put together a legislative package entitled the Safe Climate Bill.
It was a collection of 12 linked bills based on the pillars of a safe climate target, renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean transport and protecting green carbon, supported by a real polluter pays emissions trading scheme.
One of the 12 bills was entitled ‘The Safe Climate (Emissions Trading Scheme) Bill 2009’.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/rooted/2009/10/13/what-would-real-climate-action-look-like-the-greens-safe-climate-bill/
In October 2009, the Greens also proposed 22 amendments to strengthen Rudd’s CPRS. Rudd refused to negotiate on any of them.
CPM has died a premature death but it was meant to be a temporary levy anyway. If it comes back, it will come back as a pure ETS.
Pegasus, wasn’t there an issue at the time that Labor and the Greens alone couldn’t pass legislation in the Senate?
[ Having an internet discussion on the Palestinian conflict is futile, ]
It does create a remarkably polarized discussion.
I still cant work out how the Israelis think that bombing, invasion and killing of kids and other civilians in Gaza is going to somehow damage Hamas? Its never worked before with any of the terrorist groups operating out of Gaza so why do they think it will work now?
Centre I think the Greens walked away because the CPRS wasn’t practical action on climate change.
A more accurate description would be “impractical action on climate change” or even better “practically inaction on climate change”.
I’m a North Melbourne supporter. I thought they’d lose. Well knew, deep down, via that horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach. rationally they shouldn’t have, but they played so badly…
North Melbourne is much happier as an underdog/outsider/”us against the world” club. Even against Hawthorne, after they tore the hawks apart in the third quarter, to the point where players like Lake lost it, North suddenly stopped doing what they were doing looked around and said (metaphorically) “are we really doing this? How’d that happen?”
I’m quite upbeat about it all right now. The last time I saw the Kangaroos play like this was 1994 and 1995.
Jules
“At the end of the day, you have a choice, are you for or agin him?
Usually when someone presents me with that choice about someone who isn’t actually threatening me I choose the third option.”
You don’t state what that third option is, but I presume you mean you will reserve judgement.
A possibly not unreasonable position. But the cynic in me strongly suspects Russian know how and expertise is implicated in the downing of MAL017. Did they mean to down a civilian aircraft? Probably not. Did they mean to down an aircraft. Clearly yes. Should Russia apologise? Yes. But of course they won’t.
jules, it was certainly more than Palmers dormant ETS..
CC
I was addressing C’s claim that the G’s didn’t support an ets.
His claim is clearly false.
Looks like there is a health ad on TV regarding the tax increase (GP Tax)?
Rossmore@570
The apology is owed by the people who fired and / or ordered the firing of the missile.
Yes the missile is of Russian design and manufacture, but we do not know how it got into the hands of the people who fired it. I understand Ukraine is equipped with those missiles and they could have been captured from a Ukrainian base or been in the control of defectors to the separatist cause. We just don’t know yet.
Bemused. 574. If it looks like shit, smells like shit, I call it shit. Based on all we know so far some pro russian militia fuckwit fired the weapon . I wait to be corrected.
Sad at the passing of James Garner, an old style Hollywood sort of heartthrob and star of TVs Maverick and the Rockford Files.
TV was simpler in those days, we knew who the good guys were because they usually got the girl.
@bbclysedoucet: In #Gaza Shifa hospital the morgue is full, the emergency ward packed. #Shujayah http://t.co/SGhePiTPCg
24 has a presser on MH17 live from Ukraine
RMG
The Rockford files lasted so long for good reason.
“@ABCNews24: Volodymyr Groysman: The Ukrainian government can not provide security at the crash site area for the investigators #MH17”
Rossmore@575
A novel proposition.
So if any US manufactured weapon falls into the hands of goodness knows what group of idiots, the US should apologise.
I think I understand. Kinda.
@AliABCNews: New on @ABC Kerry says there is an “enormous array of facts” that #Russia supported rebels who shot down #MH17 http://t.co/LTWjVdsbPO
@carlbildt: UN reports a “sharp increase in Palestinian casualties” in Gaza. Nearly 70% are civilians. Ceasefire imperative. http://t.co/Wn08iPIFgy
guytaur@581
No shit Sherlock!
Right from the beginning Russia has been aiding the separatists. It is common knowledge.
But so far there is no evidence of any Russian direction or involvement in the shooting down of MH17.
Reserve my judgement – yeah, something like that.
[A possibly not unreasonable position. But the cynic in me strongly suspects Russian know how and expertise is implicated in the downing of MAL017.]
Same, but that doesn’t mean i’m right, and if I am right I’m not sure to what extent.
[Did they mean to down a civilian aircraft? Probably not. Did they mean to down an aircraft. Clearly yes.]
Probably not. But who are “they”? there have to be names and dates, well not dates, but you know what I mean – Names and credible evidence linking those names to firing the missile. Then we can work out what role, if any, Russia actually played in this specific crime.
[Should Russia apologise? Yes. But of course they won’t.]
Why?
Implicating Russia – look it may be accurate but it may be wrong.
For a start it doesn’t give Ukrainians any credit for their own agency. Its like claiming the US organised the Ukrainian revolution. Its plausible that the US or any nation will be involved in political unrest where they can gain a geopolitical advantage. But to say they control all these factors like puppeteers and can engineer revolutions at will is just wrong.
Ukraine gets paid when planes fly through its airspace doesn’t it?
Its a reasonable possibility that one or more Ukrainians trained to use that weapons system (possibly by a Russian, but thru official channels) as a member(s) of the Ukrainian military, chose to join the seperatists and then shot down the plane. Its also possible that they or someone else who ordered the attack knew exactly what they were doing.
Those planes bring the Ukrainian govt income that enables them to wage war against the separatists. Its reasonable that someone trained to operate a sophisticated ground to air missile system could know that information.
Shoot one or two out of the sky and that income source might dry up.
Its easy enough to claim it was an accident and appear genuinely shocked and sorry afterward.
I’m not saying that happened, just that it is a plausible scenario. On its own it raises a reasonable doubt about Putins “guilt”.
I reckon the political system in Ukraine isn’t as ok as some people might, and some media appears to suggest. I can think of at least one reasonable scenario that doesn’t involve the Russians. There are probably others. Therefore i feel the focus on blaming Russia is premature and may interfere with whatever justice is eventually available to the victims.
Its possible that Putin was a shocked as any other world leader who isn’t directly involved, possibly more so, but acknowledging that doesn’t mean I think any better of him.
@guytaur/581
Just like IRAQ?
bemused
Say no direct Russian involvement and I agree. I am of the view that even those firing the missile were not intending to shoot down a civilian aircraft.
They’re keeping a tight lid on this Nielsen.
zoid
Your post shows how much damage the neocons did to US reputation of credibility during President GW Bush era.
[ I am of the view that even those firing the missile were not intending to shoot down a civilian aircraft.]
Agreed. But their criminality lies in that by the most charitable interpretation they fwarked up and DID shoot down a civilian aircraft.
Russia and Putin will get out of this pretty much unscathed, unless they are seen to be obstructing any investigation or sheltering those responsible.
@Kevin/587
Probably after midnight release.
@guytaur/588
I hardly post on this matter merely because of that reputation, plus US has it’s own problems with anti-immigration.
imacca
I agree with that too. Otherwise we have to hold thr US responsible for the death of every child struck down by the Israelis
Someone was good enough to post this link a day or so ago and in view of discussions tonight about Gaza, it bears repeating.
Last of Warsaw Ghetto Survivors Calls for Rebellion Against Israeli Occupation
[On Yom Ha-Shoah, one of the few remaining living survivors of the Warsaw Ghetto, Chavka Fulman-Raban, delivered a fierce denunciation of evil and injustice, including the Israeli Occupation. Her speech was offered to guests at the ceremony of Beit Lohamey Ha-Getaot (the Ghetto-Fighters House).
I’ve translated it based on the speech she uploaded to Facebook:
—
Leave in your hearts and memories a place for them, younger generations. For the beautiful and bold, so young, who fell in the last battle. I wish for the thousands of you before me, lives enriched with love, beauty, laughter, and meaning.
Continue the rebellion. A different rebellion of the here and now against evil, even the evil befalling our own and only beloved country. Rebel against racism and violence and hatred of those who are different. Against inequality, economic gaps, poverty, greed and corruption.
Strengthen humanistic education and values of ethics and justice. These too are {a form of} rebellion against alcoholism among our youth and the terrible phenomenon of attacks against the elderly.
Rebel against the Occupation. No–it is forbidden for us to rule over another people, to oppress another {people}. The most important thing is to achieve peace and an end to the cycle of blood {letting}. My generation dreamed of peace. I so want to achieve it. You have the power to help. All my hopes are with you. If only {you could}.]
Darren Laver, among others, could benefit from reading this.
Goodnight all.
guytaur @ 581 I take it from that tweet Russia is officially exonerated.
[587
Kevin Bonham
They’re keeping a tight lid on this Nielsen.]
Sure are.
Did Putin order anyone to shoot down a civilian passenger plane? No. Did Russia supply the equipment? Maybe, we don’t know.
On either count I don’t hold Putin or Russia directly responsible for the loss of the aircraft.
However. Without descending too far into “goodies” and “baddies” it seems to me that Russia and Putin bear a great deal of responsibility (not total and not alone) for the fact there is a civil war in Ukraine at all.
Would there have been full scale conflict without Russia and Putin’s support and approval? I can’t know for sure, but it seems very likely to me that Russia has been seriously driving the instability, and the resultant war is, to my mind, largely to be laid at the feet of Putin and Russia. If you basically start a war and some paramilitary fuckwits do something terrible in the course of that war, do you bear any responsibility – I think so. Not necessarily in a legal sense, but in a moral sense.
I think whoever pushed the button on the equipment that destroyed the plane should be held responsible if it is possible to identify and pursue them legally.
I also think that Putin should be held responsible in some way for fostering the war in Ukraine.
I don’t think it’s ok for political leaders to play at making war to pursue their own political and strategic goals. (And yes I condemn the USA when they have done it).
Now maybe I’m being duped by some clever Western conspiracy to demonize Russia. Maybe I’ve got the wrong impression entirely. I’m genuinely open to credible journalists digging around and properly informing us of some truth that hasn’t been obvious to date. But at the moment I’m reasonably sure that the US has had bugger all to do with what has gone down in Ukraine, and Europe and NATO stumbled into conflict with Russia mostly out of ineptness. Do they bear some responsibility for the war and therefore the downing of the plane – a small amount, yes, but nothing compared to Putin’s culpability. In my opinion.
[ it seems to me that Russia and Putin bear a great deal of responsibility (not total and not alone) for the fact there is a civil war in Ukraine at all. ]
Absofrackinglutely.
@Leroy_Lynch: “The Fairfax-Nielsen poll suggests voters have yet to factor in Mr Abbott’s response to MH17” – @theage edtorial http://t.co/4ngEl5YP3H
No real figures yet, but check this ludicrous (the end bit) editorial out. PM approval 43%.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abbotts-tough-talk-on-russia-may-bring-results-20140720-zuzaa.html
[Abbott’s tough talk on Russia may bring results
July 21, 2014 – 12:00AM
EDITORIAL
As the hours have passed, the horror of MH17 has only grown. Sadly, so has the gap between rhetoric and action on the part of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
………………..
Many will question the ability of Mr Abbott to respect such niceties, given his record on foreign affairs. Voters continue to regard Mr Abbott’s grasp of foreign policy as weak. His rating is 43 per cent – well below the levels of John Howard and Kevin Rudd in 2007 – in the latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll.
In recent weeks the Prime Minister has fawned over Japan and offended China, while his dealings with Indonesia have been fraught.
The Fairfax-Nielsen poll suggests voters have yet to factor in Mr Abbott’s response to MH17. His approval and disapproval figures from people surveyed on Thursday – before the tragedy – are virtually identical to those surveyed on Friday and Saturday after Mr Abbott criticised Russia.
But as Russia remains belligerent, Australia takes the lead in the international response and memorial services begin for the innocent victims, more voters may come to welcome Mr Abbott’s strength, straight-talking and efforts to unite a nation in grief.]
SMH starts leaking:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abbotts-tough-talk-on-russia-may-bring-results-20140720-zuzaa.html
But no numbers.
“The Fairfax-Nielsen poll suggests voters have yet to factor in Mr Abbott’s response to MH17. His approval and disapproval figures from people surveyed on Thursday – before the tragedy – are virtually identical to those surveyed on Friday and Saturday after Mr Abbott criticised Russia.”