Stafford by-election: July 19

Months after its shellacking at the Redcliffe by-election, Campbell Newman’s government faces another unwelcome test of its flagging popularity.

Update: July 18

Bumping this post to the top of the batting order ahead of the big day tomorrow. Developments:

• The main news story to emerge from the campaign has been the Courier-Mail’s revelation last Thursday that Labor candidate Anthony Lynham owed money to Queensland Health after it overpaid him amid a troubled rollout of its new payroll system. This led to Labor claims that the government had leaked private information against him, resulting in a fiery exchange between Campbell Newman and Annastacia Palaszczuk at en estimates committee hearing earlier this week.

• Tuesday’s estimates committee hearings also heard from acting Electoral Commissioner Yvette Zischke about the progress of the new voter identification regime at pre-polling. Zischke reported that few if any of the roughly 1200 voters who had cast pre-poll votes had failed to meet the requirement, remembering that any who do may still cast a declaration vote to be admitted to the count if the Electoral Commission deems the voter to be eligible.

• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday reviewing the by-election, with a particular focus on its implications for Campbell Newman in his neighbouring electorate of Ashgrove.

• The normally reticent Antony Green told ABC Radio in Brisbane last week that he anticipated a decisive double-digit swing to Labor.

• Tune into Poll Bludger after 6pm tomorrow for live coverage of the results, and subscribe to Crikey for my post-match review on Monday.

Update: July 4

Palmer United has indeed declined a field of candidate, leaving a refreshingly straightforward field of four encompassing, in ballot paper order, Bob Andersen (Liberal National), Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First), Anne Boccabella (Greens) and Anthony Lynham (Labor). A ReachTEL automated phone poll of 632 respondents in the electorate, conducted on Tuesday night for the union-affiliated Workcover Protection Coalition, found strongly negative results for the government with respect to the Crime and Misconduct Commission, the appointment of Tim Carmody as the new Chief Justice and the performance of Jarrod Bleijie as Attorney-General, but unfortunately did not gauge voting intention.

Overview

With the final year of his term well under way, Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government faces a by-election in the inner northern suburbs seat of Stafford on July 19, now just under three weeks away. The election is of particular interest for two reasons – it will be the first test of the new voter identification laws that appear likely to be followed similar measures from the federal government, as I discussed in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday; and it takes place in an electorate neighbouring Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove, which I’ll have more to say about over the coming weeks. This is second by-election the government has faced this year, the first having been held on February 22 in the outer northern Brisbane seat of Redcliffe. This served the government with the unhappy precedent of a 17.2% swing to Labor and victory for its candidate Yvette D’Ath, who had herself been unseated as the member for the corresponding federal seat of Petrie the previous September.

Numbers indicate 2012 state election booth locations and the Liberal National Party two-party preferred vote. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Stafford covers suburbs in Brisbane’s inner north about six kilometres from the city, from Alderley and Grange north to Chermside and Stafford Heights. It existed in name between 1972 and 1992 and again after 2001, having been renamed Kedron in the interim. The two seats between them were held by Labor from 1989 to 2012 on margins of between 7.3% in 2009 and 22.4% in 2001, before a 14.4% swing delivered it to Liberal National Party candidate Chris Davis in 2012. Davis was sacked as Assistant Health Minister in May after he sided with doctors in a pay dispute, and polled his constituents on the government’s contentious changes to the Crime and Misconduct Commission (the results of which can be viewed on the ReachTEL website, together with a further poll he commissioned after his resignation which showed him to be viewed a lot more favourably than Campbell Newman). After a further falling out with the party over the government’s move to lift the disclosure threshold on political donations, Davis announced his resignation from parliament on May 25.

Labor’s candidate at the by-election is Anthony Lynham, a maxillofacial surgeon who was preselected two months before Davis’s resignation. Lynham had emerged as a critic of the government in his capacity as a spokesperson for Queensland Coalition for Action on Alcohol, accusing it of being unduly influenced by the hotel industry. The LNP has endorsed Bob Andersen, a senior psychologist with Queensland Health. Andersen became a bit of a hit on social media after failing to look duly pleased when Newman introduced him as the party’s candidate. The Greens candidate is Anne Boccabella, who has run a number of times in neighbouring Brisbane Central. The Palmer United Party has been prevaricating over whether it will run a candidate – all will be revealed when nominations close on Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

39 comments on “Stafford by-election: July 19”

  1. As far as I know William there has been no polling for this by election. Labor needs about 7.5 percent swing from memory.

  2. Who would want to be the LNP candidate in this little minefield? Looks like another thrashing coming up for Newman.

  4. Speaking recently to a local State MP(Labor) I was interested to note that he said that on regular weekend visits to local shopping centres to talk with passresby,the paramount issue…over all others..is the intense voter anger and deep dislike of Abbott
    In his considerable experience he has never encountered such personal dislike in his years as local member

    Is this happening elsewhere,,,than in suburban Melbourne ?

  7. I just read the absolutely-totally-completely unbiased Editorial in today’s “Courier-Mail”

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-latest-poll-figures-fail-to-tell-the-real-story-behind-newman-governments-achievements/story-fnihsr9v-1226972904793

    And there you have it – the current Queensland people in these polls are unfairly punishing Campbell Newman’s Governmnet, so what Queensland obviously needs is a new, different lot of people who WILL vote for him!

  8. The latest polling showing Labor on 51% 2PP in Queensland should furnish Labor with sufficient support to easily account for the LNP margin in this seat.

    I’d guess the swing will be 10-15%.

  9. ABC Sunshine Coast news reporting a new poll in Stafford with changes to the CMC and judicial appointments the reasons given for the LNPs losing position, no voting intention stated.

    Anyone heard about this?

  11. Four candidates confirmed today (in ballot paper order):

    Andersen, Bob LNP
    Vincent, Sally-Anne FFP
    Boccabella, Anne GRN
    Lynham, Anthony ALP

  14. Arrnea Stormbringer@8

    The latest polling showing Labor on 51% 2PP in Queensland should furnish Labor with sufficient support to easily account for the LNP margin in this seat.

    I’d guess the swing will be 10-15%.

    The Newspoll isn’t really “the latest polling” – it’s a three-month aggregate, and with an outlying result at that.

    But I expect the same. Be interesting to see how high the FF vote is.

  16. The decision by the PUP not to contest is just bizarre – you have a state government that is on the nose and you have a ‘fledgling’ (OK, it is hard to associate Clive with anything fledgling) political party that is aiming to gain traction and momentum – just bizarre. The ALP are probably highly relieved as it now probably a shoo in.

  18. Not sure William. PUP got between 5 and 8% in the Senate in Stafford, not far shy of its 10% overall. I’d think they are either organisationally immature (losing candidates don’t grow on trees) or realise their real impact is when they can blitz the airwaves to hoover up protest and swinging votes. Being a city seat there’s no tv or radio that can target that electorate.

  19. And in side-trivia yes Anne Boccabella has that name via Lorenzo, barrister and former SBS news reporter, of whom Whitlam once quipped ‘a fitting surname for a journalist’.

  21. Fran

    Anne Bocabella does indeed have a “beautiful” mouth and can talk the leg off a post, which she does to good effect in her small business which has been going for many years (at least 20). She is not young (must be 65+).

  22. Not quite heartland territory but still generally solid Labor territory only in reach of LNP at high-water tides. I confidently expect reversion to the mean, and then some.

  24. [Surely in Newman’s favour must be the fact that the only people who get the vote are Queenslanders……]

    The LNP and FF Candidates for Stafford don’t get a vote. 😉 They don’t live in the electorate.

  25. On polling the Newman government looks likely to lose another seat, this time a middle class one of the type they need to retain. A loss here would be far worse than at Redcliffe. This seat is not safe Labor, it is well educated and undergoing inner redevelopment, marginal at best. Looking at the location and demographics, it bears more than a passing resemblance to Newman’s own neighboring seat of Ashgrove. Bye Campbell.

  26. Socrates@25

    On polling the Newman government looks likely to lose another seat, this time a middle class one of the type they need to retain. A loss here would be far worse than at Redcliffe. This seat is not safe Labor, it is well educated and undergoing inner redevelopment, marginal at best. Looking at the location and demographics, it bears more than a passing resemblance to Newman’s own neighboring seat of Ashgrove. Bye Campbell.

    If you look at the history of the seat prior to 2012 it had been solidly Labor for quite a long time and was won by Labor with 57% 2PP in 2009. In the context of the size of swing needed back to Labor next election this is a very disposable seat for the LNP and one they would not expect to retain.

    You are quite right though about the similarity to Ashgrove and indeed the two returned almost identical 2PPs in the last two elections. But that highlights a specific Newman problem rather than that inability to retain this sort of seat threatens the LNP generally.

  28. LNP told by Qld Electoral Commission some signage alluding to ALP candidates residence is in breach of the law. Some gaffer tape now being applied…

  31. Another dirty trick from the LNP, The QEC had told the LNP they have breached the electoral act with these signs.

    The LNP stalled with legal letters for as long as the could before they were made to cover them up.

    Even when presented with this.

  32. [Shane Doherty ‏@ShaneDoherty9 55m
    ‘Signgate’ ends up in Supreme Court. LNP ordered to take hem down #Stafford @9NewsBrisbane #qldpol pic.twitter.com/khwEqAA7U1]

  34. Apparently the young LNP to do list for today was to take photos of firefighters and say they would be reported and sacked.

    Desperate times = desperate measures. 😆

  35. Interesting that Queensland has a measure of truth in electoral advertising laws a la SA. Not all states have this – some (and also the federal act) only have it an offence to mislead a voter strictly in relation to the casting of their vote.

  38. Jarod Hitchcock @Jrod59points
    Bob Ellis predicting a Big Swing to Clive in the #staffordvotes by election, Only problem is no PUP Candidate #Auspol pic.twitter.com/kZnLLnLlYI

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