Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Israel has a right to defend itself.

    If impoverished maniacs took up residence in PNG and started firing rockets into Australia (assume the city of Melbourne is on Thursday Island), we all would expect a swift and effective response from our defence forces aimed at those firing the rockets and those providing support to them.

    You don’t have to be poor to be pure.

  2. Having listened to JJJ from time to time, my only question would be whether you could convince anyone to pay anything for it at all.

  3. [A function with an asymptotic upper bound may be everywhere finite but everywhere increasing.

    The amount per year would be finite but the total amount of the product would need to be infinite as the time is infinite.]

    Well, that’s true but it’s not the mathematical specification you gave…

    Obviously, I was just being a smartarse.

  4. Kevin Donnelly, co-chair of the national curriculum review and a widely … ‘We can either talk about this or you can throw the first punch’.

    Kevin proves prerequisite for being part of the Government is to be a punchdrunk idiot

  5. [Having listened to JJJ from time to time, my only question would be whether you could convince anyone to pay anything for it at all.]

    Triple J is often way more balanced and insightful than the regular ABC news segments.

  6. The already had the Senate Tower in the olden days in the fertile crescent:

    ‘4 And they said, Go to, let us build us a city and a tower, whose top may reach unto heaven; and let us make us a name, lest we be scattered abroad upon the face of the whole earth.

    5 And the Lord came down to see the city and the tower, which the children of men builded.

    6 And the Lord said, Behold, the people is one, and they have all one language; and this they begin to do: and now nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do.

    7 Go to, let us go down, and there confound their language, that they may not understand one another’s speech.

    8 So the Lord scattered them abroad from thence upon the face of all the earth: and they left off to build the city.
    9 Therefore is the name of it called Babel; because the Lord did there confound the language of all the earth: and from thence did the Lord scatter them abroad upon the face of all the earth.’

    I take that as a biblical prophesy to PuP to get with the Holy Program of the Mad Monk, or else.

  7. Good riddance to JJJ – I have always despised that “holier than thou” attitude of that station and its listeners — somehow their music is more pure, more “authentic” than music people actually like.

    Bit like the Greens, I guess!

  8. Boerwar

    That particular Biblical myth always amused me. I mean, god knew that there was no way the tower was actually going to reach heaven, right? Another overreaction.

  9. [Having listened to JJJ from time to time, my only question would be whether you could convince anyone to pay anything for it at all.]

    I’m willing to take a punt on you being fractionally outside its target demographic. Where I come from, Triple J has been known to top the ratings from time to time, so I’d suggest the answer to your question is yes.

  10. Darren

    “Good riddance to JJJ – I have always despised that “holier than thou” attitude of that station and its listeners — somehow their music is more pure, more “authentic” than music people actually like.”

    Uh, if you actually listen to the mainstream top 40 stations you quickly realise that if JJJ actually holds this holier-than-thou attitude it’s largely justified.

  11. Help me here – I need to know this is wrong (& I know it is) but…….. (and sorry the next ‘sentence’ is a tad James Joyce without a brogue lilt)

    SNIP: I considered letting this through on the grounds that it was too stupid to be offensive, but article 11 is one comment moderation guideline I am obliged to take seriously. Sad after you put all that effort into it, but really, it serves you right.

  12. Darren L:

    Hysteria much? Steve Canane cut his teeth on J’s The Hack. When he transitioned to mainstream ABC, filling in for whoever it was hosting Lateline at the time, he gave Hunt a real run for his money on direct action, citing research, economics, and various papers the CSIRO had published on soil carbon. Hunt had no answers.

    Canane was the first journalist to bother to look into what DA would mean in a practical and economic sense. None of his peers bothered with it, and to this day many of them remain clueless.

  13. [Good riddance to JJJ – I have always despised that “holier than thou” attitude of that station and its listeners — somehow their music is more pure, more “authentic” than music people actually like.]

    I don’t listen to JJJ much but it seems way better than the other pop FM stations (in Perth) with their endless replays of boring music from the golden years of the boomers.

    With JJJ I find that I can tune in and hear songs that I have never heard before and every now and then something I really like.

  14. SSF

    So progressive politics is and shall ever be. It’s not supposed to be easy – it’s supposed to be a struggle. I suggest taking a deep breath and recognise we’re playing a longer game.

  15. jules

    “triple j should be sold. Its gone to shit is is hard to tell from any number of commercial radio stations.”

    Just because it no longer plays grunge music 24/7 (or whatever music was cool in your youth) doesn’t mean it’s gone to shit. It’s a valuable public service to the youth and I’m happy the government funds it.

  16. [triple j should be sold. Its gone to shit is is hard to tell from any number of commercial radio stations.]

    Not so in Perth. The difference would be obvious after a song or two.

  17. [Hysteria much? Steve Canane cut his teeth on J’s The Hack. When he transitioned to mainstream ABC, filling in for whoever it was hosting Lateline at the time, he gave Hunt a real run for his money on direct action, citing research, economics, and various papers the CSIRO had published on soil carbon. Hunt had no answers.
    Canane was the first journalist to bother to look into what DA would mean in a practical and economic sense. None of his peers bothered with it, and to this day many of them remain clueless.]

    Me? Hysterical? Never!

    But I am referring to JJJ’s music programming rather than its news programs.

  18. [Its gone to shit is is hard to tell from any number of commercial radio stations.]

    I suppose that might be true if you’re talking about its mode of presentation and the tone adopted by the announcers. But if you’re referring to the music, it’s pure drivel. Furthermore, it’s exactly the same drivel that a certain type of person has been saying about it from pretty much the day it opened for business.

  19. Darren

    [Good riddance to JJJ – I have always despised that “holier than thou” attitude of that station and its listeners — somehow their music is more pure, more “authentic” than music people actually like.]

    Can you give us some examples of music people actually like?

  20. Today must be World Crackpot Day, with Dr Donnelly, Mr Wilson and Senator McGrath all on fire.

    It’s interesting to compare this government with those led by Mr Menzies. The latter was ten times smarter than Mr Abbott, and realised that you should get the best technocrats working for you, regardless of their political beliefs, and that ideologues give you nothing but grief. This latest set of three stooges will prove to be a gift that keeps on giving for the ALP.

  21. Sell JJJ and ABC24 — and halve the salaries of the Jones, Kellys and Triolis — axe Q&A, Insiders and the Drum, and you’d save the ABC heaps of money that could be reinvested into real journalism and original programming.

  22. [I suppose that might be true if you’re talking about its mode of presentation and the tone adopted by the announcers.]

    That may be part of what put me off it. I was an avid jjj listener until a few years ago.

    Maybe I’m just getting old and cranky.

  23. A sharp rebuke for Palmer
    ___________________

    Senator X says he is a bully and coward…and his treatment of the Senate’s clerk and officers seem to bear this out
    Though it’s from The OZ …this story has a ring of truth about it….and it reflects very badly on Palmer and makes one doubt his future in Caberra when this becomes more apparent
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/bully-and-cowards-true-colours/story-e6frg6n6-1226990346718?nk

  24. [“It really is shit, it really is frustrating. I talk about this with nearly every musician friend…that there’s no other station that’s up there with Triple J,” he concludes. The station’s influence, with an average weekly reach of 1.8 million listeners Australia-wide, can even have a silencing effect on some.

    “Once this got published our publicist rang up and screamed, ‘What the f-ck have you done, you’ll never get played on Triple J again!’” says one respected 26-year-old Sydney musician of the fallout following comments she made suggesting that a certain “sound” was needed to be on Triple J.

    “I was like, ‘What do you mean? I didn’t even say anything bad’ and then our manager was calling up, and then [our people] made me write an apology…that is f-cking ridiculous. It shouldn’t be this dictatorial thing where you’re not even allowed to criticise Triple J because that’s bullshit,” she says.]

    triple J is the epitome of political correctness for music — a more homogenising effect than the commercial pop studios could ever dream of.

  25. [Might I suggest Double J, which is indeed pitched at people who have grown too old for Triple J, regardless of their level of self-awareness about the fact.]

    I never liked JJJ — so JJ probably won’t work for me, William. 🙂

  26. If the Palestinians were puppies, kittens, horses or whales the outrage from the whole world against Israel would have been mind numbingly strong.

    But hey they are only rag heads – worse than monkey ey what!

    The definition of a racist is a person who treats other races worse than they treat their puppies.

  27. [If the Palestinians were puppies, kittens, horses or whales the outrage from the whole world against Israel would have been mind numbingly strong.
    But hey they are only rag heads – worse than monkey ey what!
    The definition of a racist is a person who treats other races worse than they treat their puppies.]

    Utterly offensive. Withdraw.

    And if Israelis were kittens or horses then you’d have a problem with rockets being fired at them??

  28. daretotread

    I’m not sure if comparing say, Hamas and Islamic Jihad to harmless puppies is all that illustrative or worthwhile.

  29. Big fan of Triple J here. Other than that and Triple M, every other station seems to be playing music on repeat to the minute if you listen it on a daily basis. The only caveat with Triple M is the ads but they’re the only two I can tolerate.

    Actually now I think I might have outgrown Triple J and might start tuning to Double J if I have my digital tuner with me.

    The Hack program has so far been pretty decent.

  30. [Former prime minister John Howard will return to Parliament House to advise a select group of Government MPs on how to successfully prosecute economic reform.]

    This brings to mind the scene in Back To The Future Part II where Old Biff goes back in time to mentor his younger self.

  31. Doesn’t matter if the youf don’t like the idea of selling Triple J, they are about to be disenfranchised as the AEC removes couch surfers, car campers and homeless from the electoral roll

  32. [Former prime minister John Howard will return to Parliament House to advise a select group of Government MPs on how to successfully prosecute economic reform.
    ]

    The Lying Rodent mentoring the Lying Friar.

  33. [The definition of a racist is a person who treats other races worse than they treat their puppies.]

    Actually someone who treats their puppies better than they treat their fellow humankind is my kind of people.

  34. [The definition of a racist is a person who treats other races worse than they treat their puppies.]

    In any case, when I was last overseas I ate a delightful puppy stew.

    Dogs are dangerous and most owners are irresponsible, letting them run free to harass and attack people in public places. So you can stick your puppy analogy where the sun don’t shine, girlfriend!

  35. [The Hack program has so far been pretty decent.]

    Not a regular Hack listener, but back in the day when I was it was must listen material.

  36. Triple J I hazard a guess is the station of choice for the 14-30 demographic. I’d say for most kids at uni its the only station they listen to. It has that most precious commodity with its audience- authenticity Hell, this 50+ yr old still puts in a forlorn vote in its annual hottest 100

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