Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Double j is ok. I used to live in melbourne and we were spoiled for great music across a really wide spectrum of genres with 3rrr, and 3 pbs it does seem a bit more like their music. The trouble with getting old is you are too busy listening to all the old music you haven’t caught up with yet to really get into new stuff.

    I moved to Northern NSW about the time jjj went national (was probably at the Gollan the night Grinspoon formed.) For about 10 years there really was something good about the national network jjj had. One of the things I enjoyed was the community/community radio vibe I got from it. Thats a great thing to have with a national radio network, there was probably nothing like it anywhere else on earth – possibly because Australia is so big and some people were so isolated yet jjj made us all feel closer somehow. And it was a musically diverse place that we all shared.

  2. [One group big in JJ days and sure to be on the new JJ is Midnight Oil.]

    Probably not actually. Notwithstanding the impression given by its name, the station seems to presume that your tastes were formed in the 90s or the very late 80s at the latest, i.e. too late for Midnight Oil or anything else that might answer to the name of Oz rock.

  3. Darren Laver,

    [Dogs are dangerous and most owners are irresponsible, letting them run free to harass and attack people in public places. So you can stick your puppy analogy where the sun don’t shine, girlfriend!]

    Been trying to ignore the idiotic comments tonight as I have work to do.

    But this comment has to be one of the MOST idiotic, so much so that it has to be a joke.


  4. Do Palestinians have the right to defend themselves against people stealing their land, building concrete walls through centuries old olive groves and all the rest?

  5. [But this comment has to be one of the MOST idiotic, so much so that it has to be a joke.]

    I think it was. He was responding to someone who equally, stupidly introduced puppies into a racism analogy.

  6. This faux french accent in the ad for the Tour Down Under that is screening during TdF coverage this year is even worse than usual.

  7. Jules

    PBS is still absolutely cool, and RRR is still here – I helped set up the forerunner to RRR
    I saw Myf Warhurst around the ABC studios earlier this year, she is small

    The North Coast is wall to wall Macquarie radio, their transmitters seem to be much more powerful than the ABC – I suppose that’s where the Parrott drummed up his Convoy of Incontinence from

  8. Hockey rocking the boat has upset the crew

    From Fairfax

    Joe Hockey’s threat to bypass the Senate by ordering spending cuts outside of parliamentary approval has touched off a new Labor scare campaign and sparked concerns within the government over the Treasurer’s judgment.
    With voters offside and crossbench senators showing no signs of complying with unpopular budget measures, some Liberals complained that the Treasurer’s move had ”predictably” brought the opposite effect, branding his threat to cut other spending ”unwise”.

  9. Every demographic considers its musical youth was the one and only true musical golden age.In a sense they are both right and wrong. Personally, I love nothing better than discovering a band that passed me by due to kids and work. Currently, getting lots of enjoyment from the early albums of Teenage Fanclub….

  10. billie you must be a legend.

    These days I listen to music from everywhere, but not to the radio very often. Still rrr in melbourne tho.

    A friend used to do a graveyard shift on PBS years ago. We’d sometimes end up there after a night out giving reviews of the nights activities – what bands we saw or where we went.

  11. guytaur # 813

    [Senator Leyton tells Tony Jones things have been so confusing Senators may have voted the wrong way by mistake]

    Good to know that the governance of the country is in such safe hands! /s

    Personally, I’d rather they were all p***ed as newts on sitting days. Better a drunk pollie than a ideologically crazy one.

  12. billie:

    [Doesn’t matter if the youf don’t like the idea of selling Triple J, they are about to be disenfranchised as the AEC removes couch surfers, car campers and homeless from the electoral roll]

    Proposals to outright raise the voting age can’t be far away.

  13. itunes radio is fantastic, and you don’t have to put up with an idiot announcer. I’ve discovered some grat artists that I would never otherwise have heard about.

  14. Dan @ 815 – I was just being silly. Tho the philistines did live in gaza once, or so I’ve heard anyway.

    I don’t mind porcupine tree. Thanks for that, I’d never heard of them.

  15. Never met a musical style/genre/era/culture that didn’t produce something worth listening to. My music library is large and extremely diverse.

  16. Mr Hockey must have taken leave of his senses. Having brassed off half the country by proposing cuts which will screw them, he now proposed to open fire on even more people? The more they talk about spending cuts, the more it highlights that they’re not prepared to deal with the issue of revenue leakage.

    For years now, the Liberals have been able to avoid answering questions about how they will avoid painful spending cuts by saying that they will get rid of “waste”, and put the “leaners” back to work. There’s a great opportunity now for the ALP to turn the tables by saying they will deal with the budget problems by sorting out the tax bludgers, and make everyone pay their fair share (starting, I hope, with the parasites on farms who launder their money through family trusts).

  17. [SNIP: I considered letting this through on the grounds that it was too stupid to be offensive, but article 11 is one comment moderation guideline I am obliged to take seriously. Sad after you put all that effort into it, but really, it serves you right.]

    yeah – my tongue was firmly in the cheek (& that should have been clear surely?), and I think was an interesting proposition. You are of course the ultimate (and increasingly dictatorial) arbitrator of ‘debate’ and it is much less ‘stupid’ to concentrate on rooly important issues such as which is less crap JJJ or JJ, which seems to be you main concern tonight. (& for the record – They are both largely crap – anything that leads to Missy Higgins or the Whitlams getting air play is just wrong – if you have access to 3RRR or 3PBS – both now streamable so you do, just don’t bother with the Js). Of course, piss-take observations/ponderings that the current political and murdoch media situation in australia has a pacifist understanding the rein of terror and the bolsheviks is sooooo stupid compared to such a vital debate. Stupid is a two way street, and anyone who thinks JJJ is good probably shouldn’t be throwing too many stones.

  18. That’s true Just Me, and I think that it’s a particularly good time for music at the moment. And I’m old enough to almost remember the 60s.

  19. Oh Sir Sustainable, I happen to think Triple J is well worth defending, just like the ringtail possum, public holidays, a fair go, lamb roasts, the Carlton Football Club and any number of other cultural and natural phenomena in this great sunburnt land.

  20. Billie every little bit helps – no one gets anything worthwhile done on their own so thanks for helping make melbourne life more bearable. Anyway – was that the radio station at RMIT?

  21. Senator Leyonjhelm…am I right in thinking he is making himself readily available to the media and getting a a great deal of coverage for his libertarian views ?

  22. adrian

    I think it is a great time for music. We have never had such diversity and quality and availability of music before in human history.

    Music is doing fine. Enjoy it. 🙂

  23. jules

    I had the pleasure of seeing PTree twice (2008 and 2010) at the Enmore Theatre in Sydney. Great band live, and in the studio as well.

    A sort of cross between Pink Floyd and Nirvana, with a bit of Beatles thrown in.

    Check out more of their stuff on YouTube. Highly recommended.

  24. SSF, whatever you might think of the JJJ discussion, nobody who has contributed to it has actually broken the law, as you were most certainly doing with your earlier comment. Worse, in leaving it on a blog for which I am responsible, you were causing me to break the law as well. This is a risk that I take in allowing my blog to operate without pre-moderation, and if it’s going to function, I have to require that commenters here be less – yes, there really is only one word for it – stupid.

  25. Rossmore – I’ll defend JJJ and JJ too – the Unearthed work is vital to Australian culture – even if it does throw up Missy Higgins from time to time. I was making a point re: William’s priorities and increasing stridency re: the rules he keeps making up. It is toy and he let’s us play here, so that’s OK (& I think all his rules have good foundation so long as they are not applied to me :)), but snipping and calling someone stupid seemed an over-reaction, particularly when I suspect what he find most ‘offensive’ is any criticism of the ALP right from the left. (& speaking of offensive, is anyone else getting a ‘Best Cure of Nail Fungus’ graphic add on this site, or has my age simply tripped some ‘post old man ads on webpages for this bloke’ function of the web?).

  26. William – anybody who could have interpreted my post as inciting violence would be drawing a long bow – but point taken.

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