Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. The two lead people on climate for the government, Abbott and Hunt, have both supported a carbon tax. Abbott stated that the best way to put a price on carbon was with a tax. He then stated that the fuel excise was a “carbon tax on steroids” and went ahead and increased it. Hunt wrote an essay extolling the virtues of a carbon tax and putting forward that this was the best way to go.

    Supported right up until Labor introduced a carbon price. Then because it is the role of opposition to oppose, Abbott/Hunt changed their stance. Not for any other reason other than they aren’t mature enough to allow themselves to be seen agreeing with Labor. And so began the years of trash talking the economy.

    Their stance is now Direct Action. Have they done a cost benefit analysis? The thing they demanded/condemned Labor over?

    Has there been any sort of study done to measure the effects of planting all those trees; on ground water? rain runoff into dams? rain run off into streams and eventually the river system? what effect there will be on the aquifers that we rely on for water? the salt levels in the land?

  4. BB

    The $12 million dollar issue is very different from the Julia Gillard AWU business.

    For a start there is 12 million apparently missing, and it is being pursued by CITIC Pacific – a Chinese mining company (whom I work for).

    So this will go to court and will be investigated.

    Clive is a particularly tricky person to do business with, as Abbott is discovering.

  6. News flash from ABC News Breakfast a few minutes ago.

    Apparently the World Cup Final is 0-0 at full-time and extra-time will start shortly.

  7. “@Simon_Cullen: Coalition Senator Ian Macdonald: “I do think… the leadership needs to understand a little bit better just how it all works in the Senate””

  9. ABC RN interviewed a tuna fishing company GM from Mooloolaba??? about the repeal.

    Yada Yada Yada says he about the impost, including electricity cost rise of 40% ….. re-questioned about it being really 40% ….. yes yes yes.

    Went on to talk about other costs …… old boats, constant fridge / freezer breakdowns on boats and factory and huge cool-gas costs etc etc

    Then questioned about profits. Says on $10 mill turnover pre carbon tax, profit was $100K, which reduced to net $0 profit post carbon tax.

    Then asked “so $10 million business runs on 1% margin?” In voice characterised by incredulity. Affirmed by GM.

    Bet there are some nice benefits for someone hidden in the “expenses” column, pre calculation of the nominal profit.

    My thoughts immediately turned to the Port Macquarie butcher friend of a fluoro vested LOTO about 2 years ago whose power cost carbon tax was earth shattering. Lenore Taylor’s investigation showed it added 10 cents or so to the $22 Kg cost of his rump steak.

  10. If Ian MacDonald is talking about the coalition leadership, then what does that say about CRedlin who we were told at one point is a master of parliamentary procedure, esp Senate procedures having spent time working in Senator Kay Patterson’s office?

  11. Victoria

    No, but the money was CITIC’s to pay for ‘Port Services’, so was placed in an expenses account.

    He hasn’t provided any services, so he wasn’t yet entitled to spend the money. CITIC have asked him for the receipts, so they can see what he spent the money on… They’re yet to arrive.

  13. Sadly, I do expect the deal will be done and the price on carbon repealed. Palmer has grabbed his headlines and will claim to have stuck up for consumers by ensuring penalties for electricity and gas companies. Anything else would very pleasantly surprise me, but I think Abbott will get his repeal.

  14. psyclaw@109

    ABC RN interviewed a tuna fishing company GM from Mooloolaba??? about the repeal.

    Yada Yada Yada says he about the impost, including electricity cost rise of 40% ….. re-questioned about it being really 40% ….. yes yes yes.

    Went on to talk about other costs …… old boats, constant fridge / freezer breakdowns on boats and factory and huge cool-gas costs etc etc

    Then questioned about profits. Says on $10 mill turnover pre carbon tax, profit was $100K, which reduced to net $0 profit post carbon tax.

    Then asked “so $10 million business runs on 1% margin?” In voice characterised by incredulity. Affirmed by GM.

    Bet there are some nice benefits for someone hidden in the “expenses” column, pre calculation of the nominal profit.

    My thoughts immediately turned to the Port Macquarie butcher friend of a fluoro vested LOTO about 2 years ago whose power cost carbon tax was earth shattering. Lenore Taylor’s investigation showed it added 10 cents or so to the $22 Kg cost of his rump steak.

    I heard that too.
    If the bloke believed what he is saying then he is so stupid it is no wonder his business is struggling.

    I eagerly await ABC RN returning to hear him fulminate about the paltry 5 – 10% he actually gets back from the removal of ‘carbon tax’ only to see it quickly recouped by the electricity companies with other price rises.

    What a LNP fool!

    Apologies for the tautology, I know LNP is equivalent to fool anyway.

  18. “@latikambourke: Clive Palmer doesn’t dispute he had a run-in with the Senate Clerk which involved yelling. ‘Who knows.’”

    “@latikambourke: PUP+Muir held talks at the National Press Club (just down the road from APH). They emerged w. still no word on how they’ll vote re repeal.”

  19. And Germany wins the World Cup!!! Report a few seconds ago from ABC News Breakfast (Perth). Report has the word “Live” in the top left corner 🙂

  20. From the article above: “Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on approval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%

    That seems to be a typo. Did you mean “…two points on disapproval to 60%…”?

  23. Bemused Comrade

    Not sure where I heard it, today or last night, someone talking about the fact that the $550 Abbott promises is made up of about $200-300 in direct power bill “reductions” and some other vague component.

    Can’t recall the details because I was doing something else and nit concentrating.

    The insinuation was that only about $200-300 “refund” will come from power bill “reductions”.

    I took it to be an announcement to those fools who believe Abbott that they should not actually anticipate a $550 windfall, and stage 1 in floating the idea that they’ll actually get nothing.

  26. [Jolyon Wagg
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 9:33 am | PERMALINK
    And Germany wins the World Cup!!! Report a few seconds ago from ABC News Breakfast (Perth). Report has the word “Live” in the top left corner ]

    They were receiving their signals via the Turnbull “fibre to the tin can and string” NBN.

  28. The 3aw news this morning referred to the Newspoll finding that a majority want to see the CC repealed. Of course no mention was made of the fact that the government would be wiped out if an election were held now.

    And then Neil Mitchell gave me the laugh of the day, saying that Tony Abbott has a real opportunity to “shine” and show how good a good leader he is in the way he deals with Clive Palmer. LOL. There can only be one winner in that contest and it won’t be Tony Abbott.

  33. This from Simon Cullen earlier

    [Former Chief of Staff to Bob Brown & then Christine Milne, Ben Oquist, can be seen talking to Palmer United Party Senators in their meeting]

  36. “@political_alert: Liberal Democrats’ Senator @DavidLeyonhjelm press conference at 10:30am to discuss introduction of a marriage equality bill #auspol”

  39. “@CliveFPalmer: The @PalmerUtdParty senators will stay true to people who elected them despite pressure from govt or foreign media owners @rupertmurdoch”

  43. Re Carbon Pricing – my electricity bill used to have a message saying that the cost to the average family was $330 per annum. Let’s assume that this is correct. That would represent a certain cost per unit that could be verified, although how it can be separeted from other cost increases and how the Federal Government can ensure that power companies don’t claw back the benefit within a short period is anyone’s guess.

    As for the other $220, I expect that is an estimate of various knock-on effects from higher power costs, from bread to cars. Since it comes from the Abbott Government, I assume that it is at best a ‘worst case’ guesstimate. It would be impossible to prove. In any case, even more so than direct power costs, it’s an omlette that can’t be unscrambled, even if businesses wanted to.

    What about refrigerant gas? Did the price increase five-fold when the carbon price was introduced? If so, can we expect it to reduce in price by about 70 to 80% in the next month or so, with corresponding decreases in the cost of transporting and storing food, all passed on to the consumer?

    The only honest statement that could be made is that repealing the carbon price would slightly reduce cost pressures on businesses. There is no windfall to the conmsumer. Labor, the Greens and PUPs should be ready to expose this lie over the coming months.

  45. @latikambourke: Sen @DavidLeyonhjelm says he is working on a private senator’s bill to legalise same sex marriage. He says classical Libs stand up.

  47. [psyclaw@109

    ABC RN interviewed a tuna fishing company GM from Mooloolaba??? about the repeal.

    Yada Yada Yada says he about the impost, including electricity cost rise of 40% ….. re-questioned about it being really 40% ….. yes yes yes.

    Went on to talk about other costs …… old boats, constant fridge / freezer breakdowns on boats and factory and huge cool-gas costs etc etc

    Then questioned about profits. Says on $10 mill turnover pre carbon tax, profit was $100K, which reduced to net $0 profit post carbon tax.

    Then asked “so $10 million business runs on 1% margin?” In voice characterised by incredulity. Affirmed by GM.]

    Fishing is a notoriously difficult industry. Prices and catches are inherently unstable, meaning revenues are always volatile. Production is routinely affected by seasonal conditions and the weather. Breakdowns inevitably occur even on the best-fitted boats, while crew are frequently itinerant and difficult to retain. The tuna fishing industry also relies in part on the market in Japan, where prices have been depressed for many years and net export proceeds have been driven down by the exchange rate and steadily-rising export charges (air-freight, packing and logistics expenses).

    To my knowledge there is just one tuna fishing outfit that’s been able to survive in Queensland. At its highest point there were about 25 tuna long-liners working from WA ports. This number has fallen to just two boats, owned by a single fishing company. Along the way, the owner of this business – who I’ve known for about 20 years – lost nearly all his savings and had to sell the family home to keep things going.

    Of course, some fishers whinge about the effect of the carbon price on refrigerants. But others are much more worried about the effect of climate change on their fisheries. We have lost three in-shore fisheries in WA in the last five years and are in danger of losing one more.

    Meanwhile, operating costs in high-seas fishing for tuna have been driven ever-higher by changes in sea surface temps. In the 1960’s-70’s tuna boats frequently fished within 50 km of the coast. In recent years it has been routine for them to run as far 800 km from Fremantle while opportunities to fish close-in have disappeared almost entirely.

    Vessels have much higher fueling, maintenance and crewing costs and have fewer possible fishing days, meaning even on the most successful boats operating revenues per fishing day have been declining for years. The costs of climate change are on a completely different scale to the costs associated with trying to arrest it.

  48. “@latikambourke: Sen @DavidLeyonhjelm challenges Labor to look @SenatorWong in the eye and tell her she doesn’t deserve marriage. Same with PM Abbott’s sis.”

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