Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. As an aside, for those who understand traffic capacity theory, you will get an excellent run to work today if you leave by 7.30AM EST.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    It seems The Australian’s News Poll framed their carbon tax questions carefully and left out the key one of whether or not they think an ETS should be in place.

    The university funding changes may have a positive effect after all – the removal of one C. Pyne!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/university-funding-cuts-cause-severe-indigestion-for-government-20140713-zt63m.html
    Peter Martin – the carbon tax will go but don’t expect your $550. What a surprise. The MSM has let Abbott get away with this barefaced lie for years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/carbon-tax-going-but-dont-expect-big-savings-20140713-zt65e.html
    Conservatives can’t help but to dismantle progress.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-water-efficiency-targets-to-be-scrapped-20140713-zt5w7.html
    Israel/Palestine conflict – we’ve been there before.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/israelpalestinian-conflict-havent-we-been-here-before-20140714-zt6a6.html
    Internecine fiscal fighting in the Catholic Church organisation over child abuse compensation payouts. Hoisted on its own petard?
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/catholic-church-insurance-silent-on-marist-brothers-9-million-payout-row-20140712-zt402.html
    If this turns out to be true it’s a shocker!
    http://4bitnews.com/uk/whistleblower-i-supplied-underage-rent-boys-for-margaret-thatchers-cabinet-ministers/
    Shorten and Labor are sitting back and waiting to see what a hybrid creation of a carbon tax repeal bill emerges. Wise, I’d say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-to-wait-and-see-on-carbon-tax-amendments-20140713-zt5wb.html
    Paul Sheehan – why Bush was the worst President in 100 years. (Being an idiot is a good start to the argument).
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-bush-the-worst-president-in-100-years-heres-why-20140713-zt5y4.html
    How the race to the bottom on AS affected policy.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/13/former-ag-expressed-%E2%80%98shame%E2%80%99-refugee-policies-says-activist
    Morrison delvers children back to their families’ murderers.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/sgot-moralsnone-delivers-children-to-their-familys-murderers,6666

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Bruce Petty – the good ship Abbott in trouble at sea.

    Andre Dyson finds the middle ground.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Pat Campbell – the very hungry light rail – a children’s book.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    Beautiful work from David Rowe using Escher.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  5. Tom Watson has been demanding an enquiry to the VIP pedo ring for years.

    Cameron & Co. made fun of Watson.

    I see now with all the public revelations of pedo abuse from high profile predators that Cameron is holding an enquiry & is no longer mocking the allegations.

  7. Morning all.

    From the Mark Kenny link in William’s post:

    [Education Minister Christopher Pyne appears to have taken much of the blame and would currently lose his electorate of Sturt in Adelaide’s eastern suburbs in a 15 per cent swing away from him, propelled by a disastrous approval rating of minus 14 per cent.

    He retained the seat easily at the 2013 election securing 54 per cent of the primary vote for a two-party-preferred result of 60 per cent.

    Now, his primary support has dropped to 41 per cent – a 13 per cent slump or a 15 per cent drop after preferences.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/university-funding-cuts-cause-severe-indigestion-for-government-20140713-zt63m.html#ixzz37O1Tn0Gm

    I know we say this every election but please, please, please voters in Sturt, dump your elected member!

  8. And from the Land of the Free –

    The growing implications of the Hobby Lobby decision.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/07/13/next-hobby-lobbyish-scrotus-crosshairs-lgbtq-everythingscrotus/
    Mums with Guns – say no more.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/07/13/moms-guns-founder-obama-assassin-need-one/
    FoxNews declares that it has 12 non-blondes. A bit sensitive perhaps?
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/we-have-12-non-blondes-fox-news-host
    Obama is hitting back at the Repugs a bit more these days.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/13/1313321/-Obama-to-GOP-I-am-the-guy-doing-my-job-You-must-be-the-other-guy
    Israeli “knock on roof” bombing technique.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017202376
    Prison privatisation Michigan style.
    http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2014/07/13/3459601/emails-aramark-prison-food-michigan/
    Husband murder Ohio style.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/13/police-charge-ohio-woman-with-murder-in-husbands-bizarre-suicide-by-plastic-wrap/

  15. In any case, not surprised that the voters are unimpressed by the proposed education funding changes, i maintain that this above all else can doom this govt

  16. “@LeslieHammondQC: Congratulations to Gotye for scoring in the world cup final. An awesome achievement after receiving a Grammy award too…@gotye”

  17. William

    From above:

    [Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on approval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%.]

  19. I recall when the budget announced changes to university funding, that was the main gripe here in my neck of the woods. Not only by parents, but young students too. The frustration was palpable.

  20. When the final whistle blew the game was stopped while the camera was focussed on someone writhing on the ground bleeding the clock.

  21. victoria:

    The education changes affect just about everyone: young people in tertiary education, people in their 30s looking to do post grad study, families with school-age children, parents with teenagers looking to tertiary education, nearly empty nesters who have realised they’ll have to work a few more years to help out their kids with study. Just about everyone is impacted.

  24. Boerwar

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 9m
    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 31 (0) Disapprove 60 (-2) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 9m
    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 34 (0) Disapprove 43 (+2) #auspol

  25. Hunt lying in doorstop.

    Saying talks with PUP over weekend. We know PUP has not been doing anything over weekend they only met themselves this morning.

  26. “@Simon_Cullen: Environment Minister Greg Hunt says the Fed Govt has a “provisional agreement” with the Palmer United Party on carbon tax repeal amendments”

  28. “@latikambourke: Fed Enviro Min. Greg Hunt not pledging carbon tax will be repealed by the end of the week – only that Govt won’t give up trying.”

  29. The Commonwealth Bank’s response to the Senate investigation of ASIC blames incompetence and individuals for the scandals at Commonwealth Financial Planning Limited. Chief executive Ian Narev: “Poor advice provided by some of our advisers between 2003 to 2012 caused financial loss and distress and I am truly sorry for that.”

    This is the predictable ‘rotten apple’ defence to allegations of impropriety. And it is simply absurd to describe some of the alleged actions of those advisers noted by the Senate Report — such as “forgery and dishonest concealment of material facts” (Senate Inquiry Executive Summary, p. xviii) — as merely “poor advice”. If the bank can describe that as “poor advice”, then a bank robber would be entitled to describe his profession as “making withdrawals”.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/7/14/financial-services/cbas-bankwest-burden-fuels-allegation-fire

  30. [Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on approval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%.]

    Not possible, IMHO.

  31. [Not possible, IMHO.]

    I think it means nett approval.

    Approval for Shorten up by 2, and so is disapproval, leaving the nett result the same.

  33. vic
    The “rotten apples” were a creation of the reward systems put in place by senior management. They were symptoms, not causes.

  34. [“@Simon_Cullen: Environment Minister Greg Hunt says the Fed Govt has a “provisional agreement” with the Palmer United Party on carbon tax repeal amendments”]

    Which means they’re still arguing the toss.

    Meanwhile, Hedley Thomas, Ace Investigative Reporter, is a dog with a bone at The Australian.

    Hedley reckons Clive “disappeared” $12 million from an account, and Hedley’s not letting it go.

    The only thing that will stop him is if Abbott asks Rupert nicely to let it go.

    One does get tired of the Murdochian back-door approach.

  36. Posted Sunday, July 13, 2014 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Bemused Comrade

    No, it is you who is dead wrong about Cuneen.

    Now she says it was not her personal opinion but a legal view, relevant to what a jury might believe.

    But lawyers are experts at the fine and defined use of the language if nothing else.

    Her words were “it is unbelievable that a 13 year old could experience an orgasm ……”.

    She did not say ” a jury would find it unbelievable that …….”

    The proof of the pudding that it was her personal view is her rationalisation “In the 100s of cases across my desk I haven’t seen cases of female orgasm associated with sexual assault……”

    Ditto re 13 year old girl swimmers not having breasts words. Again, she did not say “a jury might easily accept that a 13 year old girl swimmer even has breasts…” She stated her view of it.

    Waterstreet’s view of it is quite correct. As I said a few days back, experts are aplenty in the forensic health and sexual assault support services who could easily straighten her naive view out.

    I suspect she now does not hold the same views after her Special Commission, since I know she has certainly heard over the past year explicit evidence about young boys experiencing orgasm at the hands of clergy . And in her report she does not refute such evidence

    Maybe her issue is that she can conceive it of boys, but not girls. This would be very interesting, and certainly a personal and ill informed view.

    We all live and learn and professionally develop over the decades. The pity is that she now resiles from nothing …… not even admitting that her wording allows an interpretation that her legal view was worded clumsily and in hindsight is stated clumsily in the first person.

    And there is another more troubling aspect. Her opinion went to the DPP Cowdrey who admitted to the RC that he used her work verbatim in advising the Qld DPP.

    Cuneen expressed the view to the RC that her notes were in fact in-house, never being intended for public consumption.

    So here we have the NSW DPP at least wording in-house advices in the structure of written personal opinion, then presented externally, still structured as personal opinion, and the advice giver Cuneen and the DPP now arguing that it was a legal view, not a personal view.

    And here’s the crux ….. why didn’t Cunneen cite actual legal argument then, and in her defence now, to support her views. The only evidence she cites are her personal views and her personal experiences.

  37. BK

    Both my parents and my parents in law were victims of the CBA. Same MO. They were advised to take money out of account and invest it in another CBA product. My mother did not want to do it, because she felt that anything that provided higher rate of return was risky. She was reassured by the advisor that it was CBA product and safe. Mind you they never sought this advice. It was the CBA who approached them. In any case, the GFC hit and the rest is history.
    I have not delved into the matter as yet, because this occurred over six years ago, and apparently there is a statute of limitations of 6 years. Not even sure how much they have actually lost money wise

  38. @swrightwestoz: My column in today’s West .. axing CT “one of the poorest and most short-sighted economic policies inflicted on this country”. Holding back

  40. Tony Windsor’s tweets yesterday may have been a clue as to what may happen next re carbon pricing. We shall have to wait and see

  41. victoria

    More bluff and bluster LNP means expect repeal to fail until votes prove otherwise.

    None of the firmness when certainty there we saw of statements from PMJG.

    That contrast says it all

  45. Guytaur

    I cant pretend to know what is really going on, but judging by the commentary so far. It is not a done deal

  46. It is these two tweets from Windsor that has got me wondering

    Clive Palmer has uncovered some of the myths that were perpetrated on Aust people on climate debate .Need Independent or Senate Inquiry

    Senate needs time out on climate decision. Community confused about various claims . Should review claims and real impacts on consumers

  47. victoria

    All weekend we were told nothing was happening. Then today Hunt says talks went well over the weekend, While Palmer was in NZ.

    That says to me LNP are truly not trying. Thus until proven otherwise I expect repeal to fail this week. Its a 4 day window. Then its August we are looking at.

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