Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. “@ABCNews24: Leyonhjelm: Our Bill will seek to deregulate marriage, so it is simply up to individuals to choose who to marry #auspol”

  2. Briefly

    Thanks.

    From memory, he said there were 9 boats in the Mooloolaba tuna fleet.

    Given what you say about the non-carbon price other volatile factors, if his margin is accurately 1% then he’s business is living on borrowed time.

    I would still like to see his books to verify the 40% rise in electricity because of the carbon tax. It’s at odds with what even Abbott’s $550 suggests re households.

  4. Sen @DavidLeyonhjelm says he wants to see the carbon tax repealed but not if PUP amendment puts onerous compliance costs on biz.

  5. zoidlord

    I agree with David Leyonhjelm he has also said that he doesn’t know how Bill Shorten can look Penny Wong in the eye nor how Tony Abbott can look his sister in the eye.

  6. Zoidlord @ 150:

    “Is David Leyonhjelm a fruit loop?

    Because it sounds like it.”

    Well, he’s a Libertarian, so….yes.

    DR

  9. Sen @DavidLeyonhjelm will horsetrade on temporary protection visas in return for govt granting a conscience vote on same sex marriage.

  12. [Is David Leyonhjelm a fruit loop?

    Because it sounds like it.]

    he’s the whole packet of fruit loops, best enjoyed with the loony tunes soundtrack played over the monty python clip of men in pin striped suits hitting each other with fish.

    mad as they come, but not too far from many in the illiberal party – at least he’s got some progressive policies, but mostly he’s about a society red in tooth and claw.

    it is great to see him kick off the marriage equality ‘debate’. Not so good when he’ll go for repeal of all gun laws, privatisation of everything including schools, hospitals, medicare, national parks, blood banks, roads, beaches, fire departments, etc. etc.

  13. Senator Leyonhjelm only included Labor for the likes of Senator Bullock and to appear less like a personal attack on the PM just on the issue.

  15. In other words Leyonhjem is less of a fruitloop than Abbott as he understands persuasion not bullying is a more successful strategy

  17. [MOST Queenslanders are concerned Clive Palmer’s politics are all about self-interest.]

    They’re sharp up there….dunno why people think they’re dumb.

  18. Higher Ed changes mosntrously unpopular with the public.

    Great to see they oppose more funding to private providers. If we can all cut the BS, this is best seen as corruption, not an education policy:
    – Govt gives private provider $, usually one of their mates
    -they subcontract to someone who knows what they’re doing (public provider), or offer substandard shit in-house
    – first case is simply useless rent-seeking, the 2nd simply offers decline in standards
    – main business of many colleges is selling visas, not education
    – in both cases, provider is expected to show due gratitude and donate to LNP to close virtuous circle
    – Abbott’s daughter getting a scholarship was merely an overt example of standard practice.

    Dont be conned. Can this crap.

  20. [Of course, some fishers whinge about the effect of the carbon price on refrigerants. But others are much more worried about the effect of climate change on their fisheries. We have lost three in-shore fisheries in WA in the last five years and are in danger of losing one more.]

    briefly

    The fishing fleet in Forster (NSW) is very diminished. The wharves used to be clogged with fishing boats but no longer. The Co-op is even selling imported fish to fill out the display.

    The oysters are still going OK tho but they are lake grown and the supply seems to be well managed. There’s nothing like lobbing up to the Oyster farm and buying them straight from the lake, freshly opened. Heavenly!

  21. [Kinkajou
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    MOST Queenslanders are concerned Clive Palmer’s politics are all about self-interest.

    They’re sharp up there….dunno why people think they’re dumb.]

    As long as Clive Palmer’s self interests include the castration of Abbott they’re ok by me.

  22. “@political_alert: Greens MP @AdamBandt will hold a doorstop at 12.15pm following a roundtable on imposing a new levy on the ‘big four’ banks #auspol”

    I would like something to come of this, but know nothing will

  23. “MOST Queenslanders Australians are concerned Clive Palmer’s all political parties’ politics are all about self-interest.”

  25. BW

    [When the final whistle blew the game was stopped while the camera was focussed on someone writhing on the ground bleeding the clock.]

    Over the two hours, Schweinsteiger spent more time rolling on the ground than actually playing.

  26. “@bevanshields85: BREAKING: There are unconfirmed reports of a gas explosion in Sydney’s CBD. People injured. More to come on @smh soon”

  27. “MOST Queenslanders Australians are concerned Clive Palmer’s all political parties’ politics are all about self-interest.”

    They’re sharp them Australians….dunno why people say they’re dumb self interested shitheads

  28. “@political_alert: Correction: @AdamBandt doorstop on imposing a new levy on the ‘big four’ banks to be held 12.15pm Thursday following roundtable #auspol”

  29. Mr Palmer emerged from this morning’s meeting refusing to reveal the party’s position.

    [“We’ve got to tell the Government first,” he said, adding he was on his way to see the Minister before Parliament resumed at 10:00am.

    But Senator Lambie was more forthcoming, saying she “believed” her party was satisfied with the Government’s position on repealing both the carbon and mining taxes.

    “That should be finished off this week,” she said. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-14/pup-senators-to-finalise-carbon-tax-repeal-stance/5593448

  31. [Over the two hours, Schweinsteiger spent more time rolling on the ground than actually playing.]

    I liked the blood capsule he secreted under his cheekskin….clever that

  35. [Is David Leyonhjelm a fruit loop]

    I think we have the complete muesli bar in our Parliament..

    Fruits.. Nuts.. and Flakes.

  36. [They’re sharp up there….dunno why people think they’re dumb.]

    Because they acted like a herd voting for Newman, and they did indeed vote in large numbers for Palmer?

  38. Because they acted like a herd voting for Newman, and they did indeed vote in large numbers for Palmer?

    and out of anyone you’d think they’d have worked out implications of climate….always got their hands out for some disaster or other

  40. [ Over the two hours, Schweinsteiger spent more time rolling on the ground than actually playing.

    I liked the blood capsule he secreted under his cheekskin….clever that]

    Yeah, that looked really serious. Those scratches can take your head off.

  41. Bw/Tlbd/Shady

    Jet streams awesome today over Canberra.

    Currently a big ‘X’ in view.

    Senate vote a ‘who knows’.

  42. Shorton giving a really good speech. No doubt will be drowned out by screaming headlines in the msm of a great victory for Abbott with the repeal of the ct.

  44. Rex Douglas@193

    Great speech by Bill Shorten in the HoR just now.

    I take great pleasure in acknowledging that such approval of Shortens’s speeches is becoming commonplace. 😀

    Sure shows up that inarticulate loon we have masquerading as a PM.

  45. Victoria @ 183 – Abbott isn’t wearing his gloves.

    Really tho what is wrong with that picture? It looks like he actually did some work at a fire for once.

    According to the RFS website there was (or even still is) a grass fire at Cottage Point recently (or even right now.) And there was a hazard reduction over the weekend. I’m pretty sure Abbott always has the AF, First Aid and CL badges sewn into his jacket (tho usually its a bit cleaner and drier) so its probably his gear. If he actually did fight a fire over the weekend good on him, its about time he did something useful. And if he isn’t going to fires and keeping up to speed/familiar with the trucks and gear then he shouldn’t be in a brigade.

    What is kind of funny tho is that the hazard reduction was planned for Cowan dv, Cottage point and currently there is an out of control grass fire at that location, at least according to the RFS website.

    Its not a laughing matter that a HR/controlled burn the PM was involved with got away from the crews conducting it (if that’s what happened and its not a coincidence,) but it is a really apt metaphor for his government.

  47. @Victoria

    Its curious that Abbott’s outfit is substantially messier that anyone else’s. Clearly he’s the only one doing any work!

    or…

  48. [CTar1
    Posted Monday, July 14, 2014 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

    Bw/Tlbd/Shady

    Jet streams awesome today over Canberra.

    Currently a big ‘X’ in view.

    Senate vote a ‘who knows’.]

    Yep. Cold upstairs. Lordy, we are going to save 10c a week on fruit and vegetables because of the carbon tax going…

    But, but, but the extreme cold snap in Brisbane is going to triple vegie prices because frost knocked off thousands of tonnes of frost prone fruit and vegetables.

    Did Hunt actually mention ‘climate change’ in his speech for the amended carbon tax bill?

    I dare say he did not…

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