The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.
Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.
UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.
UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,
Abbott’s desperation to repeal the CT is based on an assumption that he’ll get a lift in the polls. If that does occur I don’t think it will last long as the punters minds return to more real world issues, like where the f@#k is my $550.
“Three vertical, irregular, parallel lines about 3cm long and about 1cm apart. A most unusually big treble nick, not perfect lines …….. must’ve been a very very blunt razor and a powerful shaving stroke.”
In days gone by there would have been heaps of his skin under finger nails correct? This was never presented as evidence to my knowledge. Lindy Chamberlain anyone….
victoria@847
Thanks vic.
ajm
As the saying goes, keep your friends close, but your enemies closer
Keyman
[In days gone by there would have been heaps of his skin under finger nails correct? This was never presented as evidence to my knowledge. Lindy Chamberlain anyone….]
Her body was too far decomposed for them to tell.
Victoria
Surely unless the offender is caught red handed or makes admissions, all prosecutions are based on circumstantial evidence.
He we have a serial philanderer, in serious financial trouble and who has made promises to his girlfriend.
His wife goes missing, he has cuts on his face and rings her life insurance company the next day.
That’s enough circumstances for me.
As I said above, if a man can lie to his wife over his affairs, lying to a jury is a walk in the park.
ajm@849
An added bonus is it might spook Abbott. He probably doesn’t want Shorten seeing him kissing Rupes arse.
rossmcg
Fwiw, my initial reaction to this case, was that he was guilty of the crime. I still maintain that position.
Ajm
You are right on the money
My dear old mum always says there is no defence against niceness. If shorten snubbed Murdoch the Tories would be all over him.
Rex doesn’t approve but I don’t think his opinion will bother Shorten.
“Her body was too far decomposed for them to tell.”
really after only 12 days?
Goodness me!
Zamboanga del Sur, Philippines: A three-year-old girl who ‘woke up’ at her own funeral has reportedly died.
Video footage of the toddler waking in her coffin during her funeral on Sunday in the Philippines was posted online and quickly went viral.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/girl-who-woke-up-at-own-funeral-now-dead-say-reports-20140715-zt7le.html#ixzz37VBDOy9E
Just food for thought and nothing topical (as far as I know). I apologise in advance for the wall of text.
Someone on Reddit’s /r/changemyview said, “I believe the government should be allowed to view my e-mails, tap my phone calls, and view my web history for national security concerns” because he has “nothing to hide”.
This is a forum where people post questions like this and ask others to change their view.
This is the best answer:
sortius @sortius 8m
I notice @tonybrownITM ignores the need for bonding & frequency notching with G.Fast & XG.Fast in his latest AFR piece #NBN
Victoria
I agree, but hey, juries do funny things sometimes.
Accused is Mr Nice Guy businessman, despite affairs.
Wife has history of mental illness.
Defence is she was upset because she found out about his philandering and went for a walk …
Some people don’t think Rolf Harris is guilty either.
And we are all going to be $550 better off …
bemused
[Well so would all the rusted ons, but having your cheer squad on side does not win elections.]
Having them offside does lose elections, however.
Shorten needs to be very careful that he does not start looking like a Tony Blair/Kevin Rudd wannabe when it comes to Murdoch. The man is a clear and present threat to Australian democracy.
He is also too intelligent and evil to let the question of whether Shorten attends his party affect his mass propaganda machine’s direction come the next election.
rossmcg
What? I am not going to be $550 better off?!
[Would love to see the downfall of Murdoch. Would give me great satisfaction]
Me too, Vic. Bet we’re not alone.
AJM Entirely agree with you. Shorten is charming and his wife is a delight so they will make a positive contrast against Abbott and Margie who,lately, seems quite distant when they are together.
I reckon Bill Shorten should take Clive Palmer as his “date” to Rupert’s shindig. 👿
BH
[AJM Entirely agree with you. Shorten is charming and his wife is a delight so they will make a positive contrast against Abbott and Margie who,lately, seems quite distant when they are together.]
You noticed that too. 🙂
“@danielhurstbne: Bishop told Coalition colleagues to go back & talk to constituents in parliamentary winter recess “Be your own market researcher” @murpharoo”
You asked a fair question, Rex, and I think ajm @ 849 gave a fair answer.
Still a dirty business though.
[The man is a clear and present threat to Australian democracy.]
Sure is. And anywhere else he plies his poison.
Dan@866
Who’ll wear the frock. 😀
Once power and gas bills start to come after repeal of the carbon price Shorten should continually brandish them at QT and compare them to those just after its introduction. Up and up and up . . .
866
Dan Gulberry
Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 1:01 pm | PERMALINK
I reckon Bill Shorten should take Clive Palmer as his “date” to Rupert’s shindig.
That would be hilarious!
[I repeat – not bothering to negotiate with the Greens in a situation where they had nothing to offer (and continued to have nothing to offer for the life of that particular Senate) wasn’t the hanging offence some posters make it out to be.]
No, it was a rational decision. But having made that decision Rudd/ALP have to accept the consequences of it.
You argued earlier that the Greens’ final vote insufficiently considered the unpredictability of the future. Insofar as that criticism is valid it applies equally to this decision of Rudd.
mh
Your post just made me conjure up mental pictures of Clive in a cocktail dress from which I may never recover. Expect a call from my lawyer regarding inflicting mental pain and suffering. 😮 😉 😆
Dan Gulberry
Bill, Clive and Malcolm would make a grand threesome.
Dan G
David Rowe would have a field day if that happened!
On Ms. Baden-Clay’s fingernails:
[DNA, possibly “belonging to someone else”, was found under the fingernails of Mrs Baden-Clay’s left hand. The Crown alleged Mrs Baden-Clay used her left hand to scratch her husband’s right cheek as she was “fighting for her life”.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/badenclay-trial-key-arguments-from-prosecution-and-defence-20140715-zt4hc.html#ixzz37VFkfKd7 ]
Interesting
[The defence seized upon his testimony, suggesting Mrs Baden-Clay took her own life in the early hours of April 20, 2012, while under the adverse effects of Zoloft.
It also suggested Mrs Baden-Clay may have died as a result of misadventure or accident, brought about by medication.
However, the jury never heard that Dr Robertson was named as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the 2000 murder of Gregory de Villers in San Diego, California.
Mr de Villers’ wife Kristin Rossum was convicted in 2002 of murdering her husband and attempting to make his death look like a suicide.
Dr Robertson was embroiled in an affair with Ms Rossum. He was the head of the toxicology laboratory at the San Diego County Medical Examiner’s Office, where she worked as a junior toxicologist.]
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/badenclay-witness-once-coconspirator-in-us-killing-20140715-zt7xu.html#ixzz37VFtx8hy
Victoria
When you get your $550 give me a shout. I have a bridge for sale!
BK
OMG, the teats!
@crikey_news: Happy birthday, @australian. Hope you enjoy the cake we sent you! http://t.co/pSO3VJpwOV
poroti
Turnbull is probably already guest of honour for his services to FoxTel/fraudband.
BK
That’d be an early Xmas present for Rowe.
The Crikey cake is soooo good.
http://t.co/pSO3VJpwOV
And the brown tapered cylindrical things around the edge represent?
Dan Gulberry@866
Just too evil Dan… you are truly a wicked man! 😆
Dan Gulberry@866
Just too evil Dan… you are truly a wicked man! 😆
zoom
I keep reading back over our discussion and I keep coming to the conclusion that you’re contradicting yourself. As you will no doubt disagree with me that this is the case – which is fair enough – and I don’t think we are really in substantial disagreement, apparent contradictions notwithstanding, there is nowhere else for this discussion to go.
victoria @ 867
[AJM Entirely agree with you. Shorten is charming and his wife is a delight so they will make a positive contrast against Abbott and Margie who,lately, seems quite distant when they are together.
You noticed that too. :)]
Probably because the gyprock walls have taken quite a pounding lately at Tony and Margs joint ! :devil:
I have just flicked through all the finalists for this year’s Archibald prize. There are a lot of rather ordinary offerings IMHO.
http://www.artgallery.nsw.gov.au/prizes/archibald/2014/
[I have just flicked through all the finalists for this year’s Archibald prize. There are a lot of rather ordinary offerings IMHO.]
Must have run them past Gerard ‘Bland’ Henderson for pre-approval first.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 1m
Danby and Byrne both referenced the IPA’s opposition in speeches endorsing data retention. I expect the pro-data retention Liberals won’t.
You mean there is more than one faction in the liberals?
victoria@878
Interesting she was taking Zoloft.
I know from first hand observation that it can have a very bad effect on some people and there have been a number of cases of murders or suicides involving it.
zoidlord@891
Yes, as I have previously said, ‘extreme right’ and ‘fascist’.
bemused
Don’t forget the theocrat sub factions from each of those main factions. .
@bemused/893
I wouldn’t call that two separate factions, more like the same group with different extremists views.
Reading what people have been saying about a dd or a leader change, I have to say surely the libs wouldn’t be that hypocritical to dump Abbott. Perhaps if Abbott does get his inevitable post repeal bounce in the polls, he might call an election? Does he already have a trigger?
A little surprised at the guilty verdict, but having not sat through the trial cannot comment further if it was on the balance beyond all reasonable doubt.
Abbott has not much to gain from a DD and would be reluctant to give a mug an even break. The best he could hope for is a loss of HOR and Senate members, and the high possibility of a loss. You wouldn’t do a DD unless you were pretty confident of the result.