A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.
My aggregate is also 53.2 to ALP, resetting to 53.3 if no new polls by midnight tomorrow.
“@Simon_Cullen: #breaking Clive Palmer says the carbon tax repeal probably won’t pass the Senate today”
“@PaulBongiorno: Palmer senators may not scrap carbon tax today. A govt double cross they say.”
Oopsy i am hearing on ABC774 that Clive palmer says carbon tax repeal will not pass through the senate
Guytaur
Sort of snap!
Melbourne ABC radio just reporting that Clive has announced that he does not think the Carbon Tax will be repealed today.
More fun, more games.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/08/brandon-smith-mars-climate-change_n_5568058.html
Did you know the temperature on Mars is exactly the same as it is on Earth?
[Republican Calls Climate Change A Hoax Because Earth And Mars Have ‘Exactly’ Same Temperature]
PS Actually the temperatures are not the same.
Kevin, regarding your last article on federal -> state influences, are there any effects in the other direction?
guytaur, what double cross would that be?
24 has live coverage
Dear Bludgers
Last night my darling Ken died, “after a long illness”, as they say (lung disease of unknown origin).
He was Ken Simpson, editor/author of 8 editions of the Simpson and Day “Field Guide to the Birds of Australia”. He was also a lecturer, researcher, geologist, mad collector of rocks, a gardener who loved to dig holes, a creative thinker and humorist, an educator, a conservationist and a Labor supporter.
Over his lifetime he studied penguins and other wildlife on Macquarie Island, aboriginal skeletons in the Chowilla Project, birds on Groote Eylandt, and lectured and wrote on birds from the age of 11. He was one of the “old-fashioned” naturalists who was a generalist rather than a specialist. His more recent research was the identification of vagrant rare penguins which land on the shores of Australia, so he was studying tides and the El Nino/La Nina effects. His contempt for the Abbotts and scientific blockheads of this world was deep and strong.
In keeping with his philosophy, he has also donated his body for research.
He was my companion for twenty years.
Thank you all for your continuous stream of political criticism and invective and occasional wisdom, which has been a useful distraction for me over many months.
fredex,
In these situations you refer to the science. Elton John wrote many years ago,
Mars ain’t the kid of place to raise your kids.
In fact it’s cold as hell….
Good enough for me.
Zoom @10
I wish you did have a job in the press gallery, but then we wouldn’t have you ripping into the journos here. Good commentary.
Palmer self interest rules
Its RET and Palmer doing well on renewables as I think GG pointed out
lizzie,
Sorry for your loss.
Hewson I am no Al Gore
lizzie
Sorry to hear of your loss, 🙁
Very damaging presser for Abbott
lizzie – Condolences.
lizzie
So sorry and sad for you.
My deepfelt condolences
Vale Ken.
🙁
The Senate seems to be spinning out of control.
The last parliament/government wasn’t chaotic, but this Senate … who knows what is going to happen until each and every vote is taken.
And who can say what scrambled half-arsed grab bag of policy we have left standing at the end of the day…
My dearest condolences. Sounds like Ken had a life well lived.
My condolences too, lizzie.
lizzie
Condolences.
Liz: my condolences to you.
lizzie
Sorry to hear that.
I have 4 copies of Simpson and Day Field Guides, various editions as I updated as time progressed and they got worn out by being dragged around the countryside.
My favourite field guide – a worthy legacy.
We need more people like Ken.
Look after yourself.
DisplayName@58
I haven’t looked at this in terms of state parties in power impacting on federal results but I’d expect the impact would be much weaker if so and possibly lost in the noise. Quite a tricky one to analyse because there have been so few federal government defeats. Probably I’d use a weighting by population for the states to see if there was any link.
Nonetheless state politics can impact strongly on federal voting intention sometimes. I think the best example was in late 1992 when the behaviour of the new Kennett government in Victoria was one of the factors that caused a massive sudden shift back to Keating.
[@3AW693:
Kennett: “This is as much a minority gov’t as under Gillard-Rudd.”]
[kieran Gilbert
Palmer says he thinks the Govt is playing tricks on the carbon tax repeal “it’s called double crossing people”]
[Hewson says Abbott should have kept carbon tax just change it to zero and have ETS ready to be activated if other countries act #auspol]
Clive says they’ll vote against carbon tax repeal this arvo.
Been double crossed by Abbott, says he.
“@danielhurstbne: Palmer: “We stand today at the edge of time for an appointment with destiny .. The globe is changing; the globe is getting warmer””
lizzie – my condolences too … not only as a PB poster but as President of the Tasmanian Field Naturalists Club.
Palmer actually has a good speaking voice, regardless of ideas. Shorten has a voice with an irritating whine in it and Abbott is barely articulate.
Hi lizzie, very sad to hear about your loss. Our thoughts are with you.
Lizzie
Sorry to hear of your loss.
[@CliveFPalmer talking about the “difficulties” he has “fighting climate skeptics.” He means Abbott of course. #auspol]
“@mikeclay: RT @Riley7News: Clive delivers Government a #FacePalmer on carbon.”
[Clive praises Hewson as a liberal leader from a time the party was a broad church. He says lib party now a shadow of its former self #auspol]
Wow, Palmer says our ETS is the best in the world!!
Palmer to amend carbon tax repeal to keep current ETS in place #auspol #abcnews24
Clive sitting there listening to Hewson tear Abbott’s climate change policies and attitudes apart, piece by piece, rationally, cogently.
I think Clive is allowing himself to be exposed to climate change sensible talk, and is on a steep learning curve, day by day. I think his policies will change almost daily as he gets to understand fine detail he previously didn’t have a clue about.
Good luck Abbott.
As I write, Clive says “we’ve got to listen to wise people like John Hewson. ”
Suck that up Macho Man!
Does Palmer’s party agree with him?
#FacePalmer
Love it.
Lizzie
So sad for you.
What an interesting and productive man your Ken was!
Palmer may have just executed the biggest trolling exercise on Abbott in Australian political history.
Palmer timing exquisite. Let the Abbott hubris go on full display
lizzie
There are no words to convey how sad you must be today.
Take heart that you were loved and loved in return.
Your comments on here have told us of your concern for Ken and his declining health and it will be tough for you but you will get through it in time.
Allow yourself time to grieve and take care of yourself.
Psyclaw
[psyclaw
Posted Thursday, July 10, 2014 at 10:46 am | PERMALINK
Lizzie
So sad for you.
What an interesting and productive man your Ken was!]
Indeed…..
Abbott press conference this morning telling everyone their power bills are about to drop.
Palmer and Hewson stand up and tell the public he’s a liar.
Outstanding
lizzie
Sad news. Condolences to you and all who knew him.