BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The publication of Newspoll’s quarterly aggregates have caused a few adjustments at state level, but it’s otherwise a very quiet week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,240 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. You would know my response.

    Some fifteen years ago I recited the line to a much younger and pretty lassie and her handsome young man.

    They were aghast, amazed and filled with laughter.

    Too cute.

  4. Deblonay
    Thank you I have come off them for that reason

    Northwester

    Interesting your comment on Japanese re your mum

  5. Mari
    re anti-infam tabs
    I always found them very good and taken with Panadine tabs eased my arthritic pains greatly….but they are bad for the kidneys…if used too much… and now I take 3 by 2 -Panedol Osteo daily which helps..but not as good as I was with the anti=-inflams

  6. Deblonay

    Thank you so much I am taking musclce relaxent Xefo Rapid 8mg x2 a day and the panadine when I am in pain. Have never had anything go wrong with me before so not very happy

  10. Seems The Oz is going after Jackson now. Poor girl seems to have fibbed at the RC.

    [When Mr Stoljar asked Ms Jackson about one $6000 deposit from HSU No.3 leftover funds she made into the CBA account on October 13, 2010 – five months after the HSU East merger – Ms Jackson claimed she was responding to a request from Williamson to use her “fighting fund” to pay $13,000 owed to an HSU No.1 branch official, Shaun Hudson.

    Bank records show none of the $6000 CBA deposit was used to pay Mr Hudson. ]

    Ooops.

  11. Curious quote from Abbott in that Fairfax puff piece today:

    n keeping with his focus on the medium term, Mr Abbott urged the ambitious junior ministers and back bench MPs to be patient about the prospect of future promotion.
    ”Ambition is a good thing in politics, but the best way to secure a better job is to do your current job as well as you humanly can and fretting about the next job is not the best way to get it,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-will-fight-on-tony-abbott-20140710-3bq9f.html#ixzz376NC8OqB

    Seems like an admission that some front benchers aren’t performing to expectation….

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. There’s a lot to read today.

    Mark Kenny on yesterday’s ‘chaos’. The term “government by incompetence” is showing signs of stickability, too.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turmoil-as-palmer-foils-repeal-20140710-3bq94.html
    How and why it all turned to poo for Abbott yesterday.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ricky-muir-and-palmer-united-senators-vote-with-greens-and-labor-against-repeal-of-carbon-tax-20140710-3bo57.html
    Laura Tingle – Abbott’s karma moment.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/tony_abbott_karma_moment_8H8nPFbzOppWD9lpn6KAFO
    Tony Wright’s humorous take on it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-emperor-in-the-check-shirt-clive-palmer-makes-tony-abbott-wait-20140710-3bpq7.html
    “Do not stereotype me. I will fight on”, says Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-will-fight-on-tony-abbott-20140710-3bq9f.html
    MUST READ! Now it’s Abbott’s turn to do dodgy deals with minor parties says Lenore Taylor.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/now-its-tony-abbotts-turn-to-do-dodgy-deals-with-minor-parties
    Michelle Grattan – Abbott feels the pain of PUPs with teeth. She’s plainly had enough of Abbott.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-abbott-government-feels-the-pain-from-pups-with-teeth-29040
    Peter Martin – Conniving Coalition falls into a trap of its own making

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/conniving-coalition-falls-into-a-trap-of-its-own-making-20140710-3bq99.html
    Carbon pricing is by no means a wrecking ball says a UN economic study.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/10/zero-carbon-and-economic-growth-can-go-together-un-study-says
    Sam Dastyari has cleaned up Cormann to the point that his underhanded attempt to change FoFA may well be now disallowed. Nicely played, Sam.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/labor-closer-to-axing-regulation-that-weakens-financial-safeguards

  13. Section 2 . . .

    Not a “best friend” yet?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/cautious-abbott-backs-both-joko-and-subianto-as-competent-credible-20140710-3bq7m.html
    Richard Ackland on Andrew Bolt’s enforced apology. Delicious!
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/10/andrew-bolt-the-latest-to-apologise-for-doubting-tony-abbotts-wall-punch
    This looks like a pinnacle of capacity planning.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/test-proves-yarra-trams-eclass-trams-too-power-hungry-for-network-20140710-zt2jd.html
    Waleed Aly on Abbott’s treatment of asylum seekers.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-harsh-treatment-of-asylum-seekers-is-the-same-old-story-20140710-zt23c.html
    Julian Burnside accuses the government of piracy.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/julian-burnside-accuses-government-piracysri-lankan-asylum-seekers
    How the Dishonourable Scott Morrison’s media policy took shape.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/10/no-comment-on-operations-how-morrisons-media-strategy-took-shape
    Peter Wicks examines the wasteful spin machinery of this government.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/what-a-waste-the-spin-doctors-and-the-illegitimate-government/
    Introduction of the GP co-payment will increase hospital ED waiting times.
    https://theconversation.com/gp-co-payment-would-increase-emergency-department-wait-times-28658
    Michael Pascoe – if in doubt, blame the carbon tax.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/its-a-matter-of-confidence-if-in-doubt-blame-the-carbon-tax-20140710-zt2yh.html
    For some reason Jacqui Lambie really has it in for Eric Abetz. Strange – he’s such a likeable chap.
    http://media.theage.com.au/news/federal-politics/jacqui-lambie-pm-should-sack-disgraceful-abetz-5585726.html

  14. Section 3 . . .

    Alan Moir with Mesma’s “warning” to China.

    I don’t know what is behind this one from Cathy Wilcox.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope on the “technical difficulties”.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    David Rowe with a gross cartoon with the wrecking ball back in play.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  15. Morning all. Thanks BK. I think the Martin article sums up well why Abbott is having trouble with the Senate. He first tries to boss them, then avoids them, then treats them like idiots, and finally wonders why they won’t vote for him.

    Abbott is a natural antagonist, like too many on the right of both sides. He has zero ability to persuade a group of independents to sympathise with him. HE only understands power, not persuasion.

    His (lack of) intellect does not help either. Utterly convinced of the correctness of his own ideology, he is unable to see why anyone else cannot support it. If they do not, they must be “bad people” and therefore enemies. As a leader, he makes a good boxer. As a thinker, he makes a good parrot.

    We should not be surprised. He was the accidental Prime Minister, gifted by Labor infighting.

  18. And from the Land of the Free –

    Treatment of rape US style.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/07/09/now-gop-war-women-turns-rape-victimsrape/
    Tennant management California style.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/calif-landlord-evicts-98-year-old-woman
    Texan religiosity gone troppo.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/texas-pastor-warns-obamacare-will-lead
    The mental giants of Fox and Friends.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/10/1313055/-Fox-and-Friends-muddles-through-our-confusing-world
    Hannity and Perry at the border. What a pair!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/10/1313035/-Sean-Hannity-tours-Texas-border-with-Rick-Perry
    The Young Turks on the failure of the attempt in Kansa to prove the worth of trickle down economics. Nice try, Kansas! LNP right wingers please note!
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017201818
    DIY divorce kit Missouri style.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/10/missouri-man-shoots-wife-because-he-got-tired-of-her/
    Gun control Washington style.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/10/cops-return-seized-gun-to-suicidal-wa-man-hours-before-he-fatally-shoots-wife-then-self/
    The Young Turks’ Cenk Uygur rips a Hobby Lobby lobbyist.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/09/were-just-pointing-out-what-a-jackass-you-look-like-cenk-uygur-blasts-holly-hobby-lobby/
    ObamaCare’s impact on the uninsured.
    http://thinkprogress.org/health/2014/07/10/3458953/obamacares-charts-uninsurance/

  20. Good Morning

    Ctar

    Fran Kelly is right. The visit by the Japan PM is a positive for Abbott.

    Its positive that Abbott is an ignorant idiot with his comment on Japanese WW2 soldiers.

  21. I have been very busy with work lately and Stop Tony Meow is very effective in identifying articles I probably do not want to read. I only just caught up with what Abbott actually said about Japanese troops in WWII:
    [He said: “We admired the skill and the sense of honour that they brought to their task although we disagreed with what they did. Perhaps we grasped, even then, that with a change of heart the fiercest of opponents could be the best of friends.”]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/tony-abbott-embarrasses-australia-by-praising-japanese-wwii-military-getting-on-the-sake-and-posing-for-crotchshot-photo-opportunity-9596793.html

    Unbelievable. Using the word honour was especially dubious. The Japanese military in WWII was a parody of honour. I have read a book on the bushido culture of medieval Japan. The author made the explicit point that the WWII version of it was a latter day invention. It was distorted by nationalism, with many of the earlier behavioural restraints removed. So Abbott’s comments were both insensitive and false.

    Others think the same
    http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/tony-abbott-embarrasses-australia-by-praising-japanese-wwii-military-getting-on-the-sake-and-posing-for-crotchshot-photo-opportunity-9596793.html

  22. [she went from opposing my view, then supporting Zoom’s restatement of my view.]

    Errr. No. If that was your interpretation, then clearly it wasn’t simple enough for you.

    And as for me constantly opining that Labor couldn’t win the 2013 election, if you were being at all honest and not trollish, you’ll find that I was one of the few PBers who maintained (esp 2 years out from the election!) that LAbor could still win. Much to the mirth of many others – the Rudd Claque chief amongst them.

  24. “@SummersAnne: Happy Birthday Gough Whitlam: 98 years old today. A man of principle who fought to make Australia a fairer country #auslegend”

  25. That’s another disturbing Rowe. I’m trying to work out who is the shadow made by the smoke in the smokestack.

  31. “@Vic_Rollison: @billshortenmp is on fire on ABC RN this morning. He’s finally getting his message right. Absolutely loving the passion.”

  32. This is what I was getting at yesterday.

    In all the argey bargey about lost “Face” and Abbott embarrassment, Business hasn’t been consulted.

    THAT is the most important thing, and I’m wondering whether it mightn’t put the kybosh on the Carbon Tax being repealed even next week.

    From Lenore Taylor…

    On Thursday they agreed to the Palmer amendment, desperate to rescue some dignity and ensure the passage of the repeal bills next week, when they can be reintroduced into the lower house.

    The problem was that no business group or opposition party had analysed it and no one could explain what it meant. Different government ministers had quite different interpretations. It might only slightly expand the scope of the consumer watchdog’s price exploitation powers or it might expand them a great deal. And it certainly increases paperwork and regulation. Lucky we’ve already had red tape repeal day.

    It’s a hell of a way to make public policy, and Palmer may have more surprises waiting – including an amendment to another carbon bill to reintroduce a “dormant” emissions trading scheme. The Business Council is clearly warning the government not to do a backroom deal on that.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/10/now-its-tony-abbotts-turn-to-do-dodgy-deals-with-minor-parties

  34. It isn’t just the PUP amendments that haven’t been given any detailed policy consideration or consultation with business, but the whole kit and caboodle of repealing the carbon price itself. Abbott and Hunt have been content to just imply that it’s as easy as striking a red pen through a budget line item: here today, gone tomorrow, with no thought as to how it would impact affected industries in practice.

    How are they going to ensure that businesses are no longer charging customers, esp when as it appears some electricity providers aren’t even separating the carbon price on customer bills.

  36. “@MichaelPascoe01: so “Palmer amendment places onerous reporting requirements on all businesses” – existing ETS legislation looking good now for business”

  37. psyclaw@786

    Crikey

    When I first stumbled on PB about 3 years ago, Confessions stood out as a doomster. Always the first to pick up any slightly negative nuance about Labor in the ethersphere, and jump right in to say the end is nigh.

    Just 48 hours ago I had a series of interactions with her and in an hour she went from opposing my view, then supporting Zoom’s restatement of my view.

    Yes, and it was about 2016. She started with the view that Abbott is likely to be re-elected, as tonight, but then went 180degrees.

    That was a notable exchange you had with confessions as it epitomised the worst of her posting.

    I long ago concluded she had poor comprehension skills and was excessively self opinionated.

    She would help herself by being more selective in her comments and taking more time to properly comprehend what others were saying.

  39. crikey whitey@788

    I read that exchange, Psyclaw.

    It was confusing. But shored up my gloomster or as you have it, doomster.

    But Meher Baba is perhaps more troubling, more reasoned.

    More ostensibly Labor.

    Are they WRexes in clever garb?

    Meher Baba proclaims himself to be more conservative than most here but I find his posts knowledgeable, well argued and I find little to disagree with.

    Either he is not ‘conservative’ as he states, or even conservatives are now in alignment with the ALP and others who oppose Tone and his gang.

  40. “@joshgnosis: Conroy straight into Morrow over his comments to @SatPaper about appearing before committee hearings #nbn”

  41. Casual Friday at Laocoon’s workplace….can he still wear his RM Williams boots?

    Or do they join his blue tie collection, never to be seen in public, until the current political perdition passes?

    I can see the LVMH profit warning already…

  43. [“Do not stereotype me. I will fight on”, says Abbott]
    I can see a political version of Monty Python’s “Black Knight” scene coming up.

  44. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott “we are determined to get the carbon tax scrapped as quickly as possible, we certainly expect the carbon tax to be gone” @abcnews”

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says carbon tax will be gone “as soon as we can manage it.” @abcnews”

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says colour and movement in Senate usual when a lot of new members “don’t have a lot of experience” in the Parlt. @abcnews”

  45. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott ‘no we have got situation normal’ where a Govt does not have a majority in the Senate. @abcnews”

  46. Morning

    Must be the meme handed out to coalition MPs. Even Turnbull was saying “situation normal” re the senate this morning. You gotta laugh at this motley crew

  49. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott completes presser, walks off, a smile detected as the journo asks if he needs some negotiating tips from @JuliaGillard.”

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