A pretty dull week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the only new data point on national voting intention being the weekly Essential Research result, and that being bang on the existing trend and hence of negligible consequence for the total result. However, we did get the quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll, which is always a big deal as far as BludgerTrack is concerned as it fills a major missing piece in the overall polling puzzle. This results in Labor gaining two seats on the seat projection in Queensland plus one in Western Australia, while losing one apiece in Victoria and South Australia (the shift in Victoria reflecting an ongoing moderation after a quirky result in the state breakdown from Nielsen a few weeks ago). There will be a lot more to come on the innards of BludgerTrack’s state breakdowns over coming days, particularly if you’re a Crikey subscriber. Essential Research published its monthly leadership ratings this week, so Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten’s numbers on the sidebar are updated accordingly. As you can see, nothing too radical happened here either, although Abbott’s and Shorten’s approval ratings were both slightly above par.
[“@latikambourke: PM Abbott says colour and movement in Senate usual when a lot of new members “don’t have a lot of experience” in the Parlt. @abcnews”]
The new members seem to be running rings around the old LNP hacks!
jeffemu
First time Latika has mentioned it to my recollection
“@justinbarbour: RT @SenatorWong: Senior Coalition MPs already backgrounding that Clive Palmer wants “to destroy the Abbott govt”…”
“@jxeeno: Conroy questions if they are obliged to correct the public record if there is incorrect information being published (e.g. newspaper ar… #NBN”
[“@justinbarbour: RT @SenatorWong: Senior Coalition MPs already backgrounding that Clive Palmer wants “to destroy the Abbott govt”…”]
He thinks he can make it to Prime Minister. Of COURSE he wants to destroy the Abbott government.
It’s starting to look like a deliberate delaying tactic. Maybe Al Gore got to Palmer a lot more than many thought?
Palmer promised at the election to support repeal of the Carbon Tax. He reiterated the other day that he felt obliged to do this.
But so far there’s been one excuse after another. Ever more onerous conditions have been put in the way of repeal.
What if Palmer throws up his hands and says, “I tried. I really did, but it just couldn’t be done. Abbott kept trying to swindle me. Businesses were going to keep the profits. It just wasn’t practical” What happens then?
Another 12 months of something that really has had little effect, with all those businesses who cried poor, blaming every little thing on the dreaded Carbon Lurgie last year suddenly telling us they never collected it after all (but only when it comes to paying it back).
Public opinion is changing too.
And look at Palmer’s advisors. There’s a good spattering of Greens in there. Hewson’s a Climate convert.
Could it be staring us right in the face.
We’re all so busy looking at the minutae of deals done and undone, the thrust and parry, minute-by-minute stuff, the embarrassment, humiliation of Abbott etc. that we might be missing the possibility that Palmer has been converted to the Climate cause a lot more than was first assumed, and is look for an “out” from his promise at the election.
BB
In an interview Palmer did mention that it was more a matter of convincing some of his Senate members. So I suspect you are correct
Jacqui Lambie said that if Abetz had not tampered with the amendments yesterday, the repeal would have gone through the senate. She sees no reason why it should not happen next week
Huffington Post have a collection of photoshopped pics of Abbott and that pose.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07/10/tony-abbott-pictures_n_5573821.html
Victoria
I can think of a reason why the repeal might not he through. His name is Clive.
While his humiliation of Abbott is amusing, I wouldn’t trust him a centimetre.
If he says he is going to do something and doesn’t start on it that minute, be wary.
And I still don’t find this credible.
I post this again as my evidence from April:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3978099.htm
What I can believe is that Palmer sees Abbott’s fixation on repealing the carbon tax as a weakness to bring Abbott down. If business is actually keen to get ‘certainty’ and have been telling Palmer that out of all the possible options keeping the existing scheme is their least-worst choice, and Abbott can be made to look weak, out of touch and out of control, then Palmer can line up a big political win over Abbott if he can sort out the minor issues of keeping his Senators in line and finessing his own voting support base into accepting keeping the carbon price as an ETS.
Now, if that pans out and Palmer gets his win over Abbott by actually keeping an ETS, I won’t care in the slightest if Palmer doesn’t believe in AGW and would personally have chosen to bury the carbon price.
But I don’t think people should get starry eyed about Palmer’s motivations.
And, of course, if Palmer sees another path to his political goals he may well drop carbon pricing like a hot potato.
[837
bemused
I long ago concluded she had poor comprehension skills and was excessively self opinionated.
She would help herself by being more selective in her comments and taking more time to properly comprehend what others were saying.]
ROFLMFAO
poor comprehension?….excessive?…self-opinionated?…
To the devil! These are your trademarks. You own the copyrights on them; invented and have perfected them; and rely on them in your daily production.
You recommend another should be…
more selective…and take more time to properly comprehend
What a yes-man you are; what a tourist; what a broken cultist! Such a tattered couch. A cracked and dried old boot, stitching on the way out.
Jackol
The Australian disagrees with you. Their front page is all about former Dr Bob Brown Staffer Mr Oquist
Breaking:
Big Bank in Portugal could be in big trouble. Analysts are trying to talk it down – the Greens will be ecstatic.
You see, I’m a good bloke, thought I’d let the Greenies know to make them happy 😈
*have a good one
guytaur – (1) “The Australian” as evidence of anything in Australian politics? Seriously? (2) The Australian thinks they can get 2 birds with one stone – they want to destroy Palmer and the Greens, so conflate the two and make one target. Cunning, but not particularly informative.
Centre
[Big Bank in Portugal could be in big trouble. Analysts are trying to talk it down – the Greens will be ecstatic.
You see, I’m a good bloke, thought I’d let the Greenies know to make them happy :twisted:]
What does this mean in English?
A zero-price ets is more than sufficient to mess with TA and about the best that can be expected.
Palmer is obviously a moving feast. We cannot be far away from open rejection of Abbott’s climate change agenda.
It’s not unlikely that there will be limits to where Palmer can go – unless you think voters and “his” senators have given him carte blanche to do whatever he wants without reprisal.
Jackol
Well what is your explanation for saying Mr Palmer is not being truthful?
The self interest argument only goes so far. Mr Palmer may see its in the self interest of his family to do something for the better life of his child.
The self interest is to bolster votes for PUP at expense of LNP.
None of this is contradictory. Mr Palmer can believe Mr Garnout and his economics arguments and attack Abbott.
Just how much self interest does he have in coal? Look at court cases regarding Great Barrier Reef impacts and restrictions that makes for expansion.
Before long the senate will have repelled almost every part of the Abbott/Hockey package, possibly including the MRRT.
What will the Abbott Government then stand for?
Closing down auto-making
Piracy in the Indian Ocean
Steering relations with China towards hostility
And trying but failing in every other respect.
@political_alert: Greens Leader Christine Milne press conference in Sydney at 11:30am today to discuss ‘the current farce on global warming policy’ #auspol
Maybe Palmer is playing for the return of MT :P.
“@latikambourke: PM Abbott on 2GB says if there are 6-12 months of what happened in the Senate yest. then maybe time to start thinking about a DD.”
Wow he is all over the place. Does align with timetable for getting a DD though
Laurie Oakes said on the Channel 9 news last night that yesterday’s events would be seriously damaging for the government. But as much as I would like to believe it, I can’t see why. Despite some (forlorn in my opinion) optimism here that the CC might survive next week, all the indications are that this week was just a hiccup before the CC is finally voted out probably next Monday or Tuesday. Abbott will have his moment of glory and the government will have fulfilled its election promise. Where is the serious damage in that?
Don’t get me wrong, I think this government is in real trouble from a range of other issues that are about to unfold, but I just don’t get where the damage is in this one.
Ut seems to me that the consistent thread in Palmer’s conduct is to annoy Abbott. Like Abbott in the 42nd and 43rd Parliaments, palmer wants to wreck the joint. He also wants to hurt Murdoch’s influence-peddling business model. He’s not as rich as Murdoch, but like him, politics is in large part a vanity project.
Like Abbott, Palmer knows the value of mindless populism, especially when you’re able to pose as an outsider. Being an eccentric billionaire outsider is especially good, and works really well when perceived insiders attack you for your perceived eccentricities.
Clive knows that Abbott’s promises on the carbon “tax” leave him no wiggle room, so naturally, he is using this blood oath to attack him. He also knows that business isn’t going to want a raft of new compliance measures. That’s leverage.
The substance of Palmer’s position on climate change is entirely moot.
It’s fabulously entertaining of course. It has irony, strange plot twists, unbelievable alliances, good versus evil. Best soap opera ever.
briefly@861
Let’s also keep in mind who would be most hurt or most benefit if a Double Dissolution election were held in early August. Hint Clive would fancy his chances if improving. So would we Greens. A lot of Liberals would lose their seats. Abbott would have to say what he’d do with an even more hostile senate.
There would surely be a revolt within his party if Abbott allowed that to get onto the table.
Shorter Fran , ‘it’s the best show in town’
I know I’m cynical but I cannot beleive anyone would think Palmer would act in anyones’s interest but his own. He is a Qld National Party, white shoe property developer with extensive mining interests including coal developments. He hates the Libs but also Labor & Greens but will use anybody.
He is as Green as the coal in his Waratah project. Enjoy him playing with the Abbotts tiny mind while it lasts but don’t expect too much long term help for the environment.
Fran Barlow
[Ut seems to me…]
Releasing your inner kiwi ? 🙂
Do not trust Palmer. When you actually bother to look at what he promises there’s very little substance. The MSM, naturally, won’t tell you that.
First, the biggest furphy – keeping the RET. Palmer is not doing that. He has said a zillion times he wants repeal of the RET taken to the next election. He does not care if it goes or stays, he has said that too. He is just using the issue as a way to keep saying ‘Abbott lied’.
Next the ETS. There won’t be one. Palmer has linked this not to repeal of the carbon price legislation but to the bill to get rid of the Climate Change Authority. If PUP’s huge 300 page amendment makes it though the senate the legislation will have to go back to the reps for their approval and the government will knock it back.
I have no idea what Palmer is thinking or what he is up to. All I know is I would not trust him with Paul Keating’s legendary jar of five cent pieces, let alone control of the senate. Whatever he has in mind it will be something that benefits him. If he thinks pretending to be a Greenie might win him the votes of wobbly Labor voters then that’s what he will do. Palmer wants more power. He needs to win seats in state elections, he needs a few reps seats and more senate seats. All his current game-play is, I think, aimed at achieving that.
The damage done from yesterday’s events is the impression it gives of a government out of control and in disarray, something the Libs used effectively against Labor. If the government was popular and or the leader was popular they may have gotten away with it. We know neither situation is the case. The perfect storm so to speak.
Poroti
[Releasing your inner kiwi ? ]
Perhaps, but maybe the person who devised this keyboard applied their inner Kiwi to the design. 😉
Do not get me wrong. I am not saying trust Palmer.
What I am saying is how far does his coal self interest run?
Unlike Abbott Palmer knows the reality. He knows what China is doing. Especially in regards to him.
I am saying for these reasons all the doubt should be for Abbott. He is the one desperate for the votes as Fran righly points out.
Given all that my point is Palmer’s self interest may have changed in priority except for one. No refunds for Mr Palmer’s companies he did promise to vote no to repeal.
Fran Barlow
A few more years of Abbott and being able to release your “inner kiwi” when overseas will be a valuable skill.
Guytaur
Was discussing Clive with a workmate yesterday (we work in mining), and we couldn’t think of one coal mine operated by Clive Palmer that was actually working. Coupled with his inability to get a berth at Abbott Point, his projects are now largely stranded, we thought his ‘loss’ in not repealing the Carbon Tax would be much smaller than the loss suffered by other coal miners; such as Gina… Given there is a lot of dislike between them it seemed to us that he could be playing a game of injuring himself a little to hurt his enemies a lot more. So, he keeps delaying the Carbon price repeal and keeps adding new items to the deal… We though maybe he was simply acting out vindictively.
Though that doesn’t account for his Green advisor, or Al Gore moment. I am slightly hopeful he has ‘seen the light’.
I heard a woman on 3aw this morning criticising Palmer and saying the CC must be abolished to “bring all these prices down”. Talk about naive. She must have swallowed hook line and sinker the nonsense from Abbott that everyone is going to be $550 better off. It will be interesting to hear what people like her will be saying in a year’s time when they realize it was just another one of Abbott’s lies.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has flagged the possibility of an election within 12 months if the chaotic scenes of this week’s Senate negotiations over the carbon tax repeal continue.
After telling radio 2GB on Friday morning that it might be time for a poll if the government’s ”difficulty” continued for six to 12 months, Mr Abbott later told reporters as a media conferenece that his administration was there to govern not call another election.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-dismisses-senate-argybargy-backs-away-from-new-election-speculation-20140711-3bqyf.html
Earlier centre made a comment about a Portuguese bank. This is a report on the bank and what happened.
[ Portugal’s Largest Bank Espirito Santo Misses Bond Payment
Banco Espirito Santo SA bonds plunged to record lows after a parent company delayed payments on short-term notes, reawakening concern that banks remain vulnerable as the euro region emerges from the sovereign debt crisis.]
http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/20207
With Whitlam’s birthday, he becomes only the 7th member of the Australian Parliament ever to reach 98, after Jack Lang, George Hannan, James Corbett, Aubrey Luck, Reg Turnbull and Sir John Cramer.
guytaur
[“@justinbarbour: RT @SenatorWong: Senior Coalition MPs already backgrounding that Clive Palmer wants “to destroy the Abbott govt”…”]
Really? Whomever would have thunk it?
Abbott whatever he thinks of himself is being made a fool of.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke!
I would love Abbott to try on a DD – Labor would be back in power.
Frickeg
Very interesting thanks!
MTBW
Again they show they cannot – or will not – act beyond the short term.
victoria
[After telling radio 2GB on Friday morning]
Brave Sir Robin still doing only “hard” interviews.
poroti
The way he is going the only venues he’ll have left for “hard” interviews will be North Shore nursing homes.
poroti
Yes 2gb is a safe haven for Brave Sir Robin
Meanwhile ABC radio Melbourne interviewed Daneil Grollo this morning, CEO of Grocon. This company together with the state govt have had successfully brought court action against the CFMEU for their blockades last year. Shorter the CFMEU are a rogue union that needs to be held to account. Even shorter, Labor need to break ties and cease receiving donations from them.
As i said yesterday, the Herald Sun has had every day’s front page focussed on the CFMEU and its ties to the Labor party.
Despite LLynch posting polling last night that shows it has not been detrimental to team Labor, i am concerned
Come on Gough,get the ton. Australia, as a birthday present give Gough in his centenary year in 2016 a “One Term Tony”.
Frickeg
And possibly King O’Malley as we have previously discussed.
It appears he lied as much about his date of birth as he did of its place.
BK
If he loses in 2016 he’ll likely end up in one.