Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  2. GG

    Do you really think so.

    I think the Greens still need to negotiate some tricky waters BUT I am inclined to the view they have shifted from minor transient protest party to mainstream if minority party,

    Unless Labor changes, there will be an steady rise of the Greens such that in 40 years the greens will be the main “progressive” party with the ALP a union based leftish ally but the minor party in a coalition.

    People with views like yours (supporting working class battlers but with a strong religious affiliation) may form a third more centrist party. I cannot really see this third/fourth party allied to the greens so I assume it would usually be in alliance with the conservatives.

  3. The Germans really are pissed with their “mates” .

    [Germany to spy on US for first time since 1945 after ‘double agent’ scandal

    Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is planning to scrap a no-spy agreement Germany has held with Britain and the United States since 1945 in response to an embarrassing US-German intelligence service scandal which has deeply soured relations between Berlin and Washington.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-to-spy-on-us-for-first-time-since-1945-after-double-agentscandal-9590645.html

  4. Keeping George Pell busy in Rome:

    [Cardinal George Pell is expected to announce a restructure of the Vatican bank that will see the scandal plagued institution spin off its investment activities and focus on payment services for the Roman Catholic Church, according to reports.

    Vatican sources said Cardinal Pell – who was appointed earlier this year to one of the Vatican’s most senior roles, Prefect for the Economy of the Holy See – will announce the changes on Wednesday.

    Cardinal Pell is responsible for management and reform of the Vatican’s sprawling administration and finances, reporting directly to the Pope Francis.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/cardinal-george-pell-to-announce-major-changes-at-vatican-bank-20140708-zszux.html#ixzz36qDQCYQj

  6. Cormann threatens industry super funds if his FoFA changes are rejected by the Senate:

    [Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has threatened to target industry super funds if the Senate behaves as expected and throws out regulations watering down protection for consumers of financial advice.

    Senator Cormann said he had ”no plan B” and without the regulations the previous Labor government’s Future of Financial Advice laws would stand as written.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mathias-cormann-threatens-super-funds-if-fofa-bid-fails-20140707-3biy3.html#ixzz36qEN9mDb

  9. I just watched Four Corners from last night, and overall it was a good overview of the existing state of the Australian energy market and renewable generation technology. I have a few points on it.

    First, it has reaffirmed my opinion that CST with storage has huge potential in Australia. The key advantages are:
    1. Use of conventional highly refined and very efficient steam turbine technology, the same as existing coal and gas fired power plants.
    2. Easy integration with molten thermal storage – so there is power when the sun isn’t shining.
    3. They provide synchronous generation, which is *really* important for maintaining the integrity and stability of the grid, especially in the presence of high proportions of wind and PV generation.

    Simon Corbell, ACT Minister for the Environment and Sustainable Development, hit the nail on the head with his comment that the State Govts have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, because of the royalties they earn from coal and gas extraction, an through their ownership of many of the generators. For example, the Qld Govt owns Stanwell Corp, which controls more than 4.2GW of electrical generation capacity. The main part of which is embodied in the Stanwell and Tarong Power Stations (both about 1.4GW), so it makes money from royalties on the fuel to power the plants and the sale of the electricity into the NEM (and given its size, it is able to influence the price in the NEM – by which I mean that it could possibly act as a cartel).

    Danny Kennedy from Sungevity was all over it – especially with his comments on local storage and locally-managed microgrids. Far-sighted distribution companies are already moving into this space by investing in “smart” infrastructure rather than dumb tech (e.g. Vector in Auckland). One example is using batteries with centrally controllable charge/discharge rates to soke up excess power to control voltage rise on distribution networks during the day, and release it during peak periods to manage congestion and voltage drop, rather than just duplicating the existing wires and transformers. Look for Australian distribution companies to start offering cheap leases, or fully subsidies, on batteries, as long as they can use them to manage the network when its needed.

    The fellow from ESAA was correct that electric vehicles are going to drive an increase in electrical power. More broadly, if we want to get serious about reducing carbon emissions, then we can just de-carbonise the existing stationary power system – we must electrify more of our energy requirements. Gas heating and cooking? It’s got to go, just like hydrocarbons for transport. This means that we will eventually make use of all that gold-plated energy distribution infrastructure, just not for some time.

    Hunt was as good as he could be given his role, but jeez, he’s going to end up hating himself later in life.

    Rifkin was good, and I suggest you watch his full interview.

    One issue that was only touched on was the current overcapacity in the NEM (although the shameless Richard Van Breda had a great whinge about it). The UK, in dealing with the same problem, just limited the capacity of each generator to a point where it became economically feasible to run them, by saying something like “you can all only run for 90% of the time”. They are progressing their Electricity Market Reform program to explicitly auction long-term generation capacity, as well as maintaining a short-term energy only market like our NEM wholesale market. A close example of a system with separate capacity and energy markets is Western Australia; France is due to begin auctioning capacity contracts this November. Watch for it in the NEM (especially if the RET survives).

  11. citizen

    [Cardinal Pell is responsible for management and reform of the Vatican’s sprawling administration and finances, reporting directly to the Pope Francis.]

    Hope there is something in there for the victims of abuse by priests.

    At least we have got Pell out of Australia.

  12. Sometimes research simply restates the obvious, but it’s still nice that someone does it. This is a good example:

    [While having money doesn’t necessarily make anybody anything, the rich are way more likely to prioritise their own self-interests above the interests of other people. They are more likely to exhibit characteristics we would stereotypically associate with, say, assholes.]

    http://gu.com/p/3qm39/tw

  13. [701
    Greensborough Growler

    Greens get left on the shelf and will be thrown out now their use by date has expired.]

    Bit of wishful thinking there, I suggest. The Greens and their supporters are not going away anytime soon.

    Better get used to it, and used to negotiating with them to get Labor policy up and running.

  16. Isn’t PB like The Hotel California, you can check out anytime you like but you can never leave? I think William is the only one who can sack or resign anyone.

    So just because someone says they are leaving they can’t actually leave unless they upset William and he hits them over the head with a hammer.

  17. It will be interesting to see how the Greens fare next election.

    They tend to fare well when people are p*ssed with Labor but don’t want to vote Liberal.

    At present, the next election looks like one where people (whatever they’ve told pollsters in the interim) decide the result is too important to ‘waste’ their vote.

    So – given that any prediction made two years out is likely to be overtaken by events – my current tip would be a lowering of the Green vote at the next election.

  20. [They tend to fare well when people are p*ssed with Labor but don’t want to vote Liberal.]

    Slightly oversimplistic.

    Those to the right of the Labor Party will either stay schtum with Labor or go to the Libs – those on the left will definitely go to the Greens. Just as some in the Libs – the famous “doctors wives” – will go to the Greens rather than vote ALP. The problems the Greens and the ALP have now is those on the right of the ALP who may have sat tight now have Clive to go to. The last QLD election showed this when Katter picked up lots of votes from the disaffectedd ALP base.

  21. An article on tomorrow’s Presidential election in Indonesia – a very tight race.

    [A credible new poll has injected hope into Jakarta governor Joko Widodo’s presidential campaign, showing that he’s rebounded from a slump to a moderately convincing 3.6 percentage-point lead over his opponent, Prabowo Subianto.

    The poll suggests Mr Joko, the former runaway favourite, will squeak a narrow victory. However, the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2 per cent, and 8 per cent of voters remained undecided in the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) survey taken between July 2 and 5.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/joko-widodo8217s-presidential-hopes-resurrected-after-indonesian-poll-suggests-narrow-victory-20140708-zszid.html#ixzz36qHtZRMY

    Joko Widodo has been subject to the same kind of nasty innuendo aimed at Obama (but in reverse):

    [Mr Joko travelled to Mecca to pray and contemplate, he said, though some speculated he wanted to counter a damaging smear campaign that alleged he was a Christian born of Chinese parents.]

  23. Zoomster many Greens voters are p*ssed off with the asylum seeker policy of both the Coalition and the ALP.

    Enough Greens will never vote for the ALP for the Greens HQ to not preference ALP over Liberal and vice versa forcing most Greens voters to vote below the line in the senate, where there is a 90% chance of voting informally. I suspect the Greens have a higher Senate vote than the final figures indicate.

  24. [ davidwh

    Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

    So just because someone says they are leaving they can’t actually leave unless they upset William and he hits them over the head with a hammer.]

    ——————————————–

    Rummel was quizzical; Studied pataphysical
    Science in the home.
    Late nights all alone with a test tube.
    Oh, oh, oh, oh.

    Bang! Bang! Williams’s silver hammer
    Came down upon his head.
    Clang! Clang! William’s silver hammer
    Made sure that he was … well told off ….

  25. Queenslands new Chief Justice has been sworn in in secret.
    Instead of a court full of legal luminaries in wigs and gowns to welcome the new judge with glowing speeches, it seems to have been a wife and kids affair.
    I suspect that not only were people to make speeches of praise in short supply, there may have been fears that nobody would turn up.
    Corruption fighter tony Fitzgerald has met the Qld government again and come away totally unconvinced this is a suitable appointment.
    Ah Queensland, beautiful one day, cesspit of corruption the next.

  27. [Zoomster many Greens voters are p*ssed off with the asylum seeker policy of both the Coalition and the ALP.]

    There was some interesting data from before the last election that indicated that a goodly percentage of Greens voters – something like 30-35% if I recall were not in step at all with the public pronouncements of the party on Asylum seekers.

  28. [ And praised Fraser, Gillard and said he wanted to make Japan a place where women shine. ]

    Abe said that?? Must have been to the sound of Tory heads exploding. 🙂

    [ Hmmm…so Tony’s ‘aren’t the Chinese naughty?’ chat mightn’t go down as well as he thinks… ]

    I mean, what could go wrong from Abbott’s perspective? He is demonstrating his sublime sense of timing yet again. 🙂

    Get dragged into the High court for illegal behaviour and human rights abuses, AND at the same time make statements that are guaranteed to insult and annoy one of our largest trading partners who also have issues with human rights AND who has a current territorial dispute with the visiting dignitary who you are currently sucking up to.

    All will be well! The FM will just step in and smooth everything out. 🙂

  29. billie

    I’m not predicting a Greens wipeout, for the reasons you outline…just not an increase in their vote.

  30. 709

    That segment was great and it made me feel all good inside.

    Also that Guardian article on how solar have “won” or rather established itself has gone viral all over Reddit.

  31. Zoomster

    Like you, I’m not going out on a limb about our prospects two years out (though I doubt this regime will go close to full term and wouldn’t be surprised if the election were held in the window from November 2014 to March 2015).

    I will be surprised if our primary is much worse than it was in 2010 however. Traditional loyalties have eroded and even those keen not to ‘waste’ their vote know we have a preference system. There is time for a new consensus around social justice, human rights, renewables and carbon abatement to coalesce and infect the ALP and even some of those to its right. If an election is held this year I’d fancy our chances of breaking the 13% primary figure in the lower house. I the election is closer to 2016 maybe even better than that.
    T
    If Murdoch drops off the twig or Newscorp breaks up an even more positive result is possible.

  32. [ Hope there is something in there for the victims of abuse by priests.

    At least we have got Pell out of Australia. ]

    Let’s not forget Pell was the architect of the “Ellis Defence”, which kept the church in Australia from having to pay financial compensation resulting from its predatory priests who sexually abused children.

    Perhaps that’s why Pell got this gig in the first place – if so then I’d be expecting him to do something similar for the catholic church as a whole.

  33. Unless something changes radically, my belief is that the Greens have an effective ceiling on their vote of about 15% – their is not enough mainstream in the policy to go beyond that.

  34. Zoomster

    The Greens didn’t do very well at the last Election, so I would be surprised if they did worse.
    There’s also a generational impact as well; the Greens are more popular with younger voters.

    I think the Greens may get somewhere between 10 and 11%

  35. I’m happy with the Greens to be a balance of power party. In Germany a few minor parties play key role despite never getting more than 20%. I just think we need more of such minor parties.

  36. [I’m happy with the Greens to be a balance of power party. In Germany a few minor parties play key role despite never getting more than 20%. I just think we need more of such minor parties.]

    Same in Norway – and we know how well they’ve handled the mixed blessing of their natural resources.

  38. 736

    In hindsight, I wish someone’s has had the foresight to have done something like that. Shame we chose to have a sovereign fund with only non-commodities.

  39. Reading the SMH article on Cormann’s failure to push through the FoFA regulation changes & in light of the CBA scandal I had to laugh at what David Marr had to say on Insiders. WTTE that we couldn’t have an RC into the financial planning industry because it would be impossible to implicate any ex Labor PM’s.

  41. BBP

    [Unless something changes radically, my belief is that the Greens have an effective ceiling on their vote of about 15% – there is not enough mainstream in the policy to go beyond that.]

    Come on. You can do better than that. You may well be right — that 15% really is the most we can get “unless something changes radically” but let’s state this claim in generic terms:

    [I believe P will occur unless the value of unspecified variable UV changes in some qualitatively or quantitatively unspecified way by an undefined amount, in which case I believe Not P may occur, but not necessarily. ]

    This is a Claytons claim and non-falsifiable.

    Plainly, if what is ‘mainstream’ changes radically we could get a lot more or far fewer primaries, depending on how it changed and how much. How does ‘mainstream’ come to be defined? In part by the agency of the contending parties and their milieux, the apparent consequences of various public policy positions and their mediation by the weapons of mass misdirection in the mass broadcast media. All of these are unknown and for our purposes, probably unknowable.

    All we can really do is guess at where the current positions of the major players will take them and feed that back into the perceived consciousness of the electorate at large and have a semi-informed stab.

    I doubt we will get 15% at the next election, but if we do, it will be an earthquake and that number may become a floor rather than a ceiling because a whole bunch of people who don’t yet see us as a viable alternative to the ALP will do so. We will get a lot more coverage. My party will be tested by this, and where we go after that — forwards or backwards — is the kind of problem I’d be very happy as a Green to have.

  43. [In hindsight, I wish someone’s has had the foresight to have done something like that. Shame we chose to have a sovereign fund with only non-commodities.]

    Labor in Qld did, it’s called the QIC.

  45. “@safimichael: About 15 people in the court but more expected ahead of 2:15 start. Link to Syd has been tested. “Let the roadshow begin,” says a registrar”

  46. Interesting that Esssential:

    Q. A recent Government report suggested that the Disability Support Pension should only be paid to those with a permanent disability and those with a disability who have current or future capacity to work should receive a lower level of benefit. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

    The proposal was most strongly supported by respondents aged 55+ (59%).

    Old people more concerned with Age Pension then Disabled Pension, and prefer the disabled get knocked off.

    Typical old farts.

  47. PUP is certainly adding a level of complexity to the Senate debates:

    [The Palmer United Party is finalising details of its emissions trading scheme and expects to bring an extraordinary 300-page amendment to the Senate next week.

    The amendments will halt the abolition of the Climate Change Authority (CCA), allocate new money to the agency and put it in charge of monitoring climate action by Australia’s five major trading partners.

    And as key details of the scheme emerge, Palmer United leader Clive Palmer has warned the government not to try to pull the wool over the eyes of his inexperienced senators.

    The warning comes after the government attempted to bring the eight carbon tax repeal bills out of committee for debate, but left out the CCA bill the Palmer party plans to amend to introduce its ETS architecture.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmers-party-readies-its-emissions-trading-scheme-20140708-3bk4f.html#ixzz36qUQFZha

  49. @Bk/748

    Of course it’s old people again.

    Those most likely to think it has been good were Liberal/National voters (76%) and aged 55+ (54%).

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