Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

No surprises in Newspoll’s latest quarterly breakdowns, which show uniform swings across the five states, and find Tony Abbott’s approval ratings down in equal measure across the full range of age and gender cohorts.

It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

792 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. I’m waiting for the day someone interrupted on the panel turns to Sloan and says clearly directly “Do you ever shut up?”

  2. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 10:43 pm | PERMALINK
    @rummel/442

    And on earth, that would be making stuff up.]

    Dont know what planet you on then if you have not come across that term before. A small selection of link for you.

    http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-272
    http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/features/11241/el-nino-or-la-nada
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/23/el-nino-la-nina-la-nada-and-forecast-implications-for-the-upcoming-winter/

  3. Kezza, Mandlebrot invented the term fractal. This is where a pattern is repeated but at different levels. Hence the ‘B’ stands for his name at a different level.

    Definition of a fractal:

    A fractal is a natural phenomenon and a mathematical set. What they have in common is a repeating pattern that displays at every scale.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal

  4. I thought QandA was actually quite watchable and informative. Was amused at the Young Lib in the suit spruiking trickle down economics, however. I think Sloan was quite aware she wasn’t the smartest person in the room and actually had considerabke respect for the other pannelists, apart from Stiglitz, curiously. Making yourself a fool in front of people who know you’re wrong and won’t take your shit was sonething she calculated to minimise, not that she could totally control herself. Her attempt to patronise Stiglitz, and later Garnaut, was actually quite cute.

  5. Kezza

    There is a second boat with 153 people. There may be a third.

    Reading between the lines it seems likely that the first boat was filled with Sinhalese, who probably are JUST economic refugees (with several exceptions – and a dog)

    The second boat seems to have come from India and will be almost ALL Tamils. This is much, much much more serious given the genocidal nature of the regime.

  6. DTT

    There is no such thing as an economic refugee. There is only people pretending to be refugees as a form of economic migration.

  7. PeeBee

    Ah. Thank you. I should have realised it was something to do with what he’d invented.

    I did say to my son it must have something to do with maths (clue: picture of a blackboard behind him) and we pondered for quite a while over beta B or just B.

    I’ll email him. Thanx again.

  8. @rummel/455

    Not surprisingly no.

    Judging from the daily record heats that we have been having, especially in USA, I don’t think it’s too early to say it’s a neutral one.

  9. [guytaur
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel

    Watching Lateline. Antarctic Ice Melt is real]

    I will check the web for it tomorrow. Any explanation for the record sea ice down there?

  10. Guytaur,

    Perhaps not under law, but the concept certainly exists. Arguably why nearly everyone on this continent is here. They don’t need to be strictly claiming asylum

  11. [daretotread
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 10:51 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza

    There is a second boat with 153 people. There may be a third.

    Reading between the lines it seems likely that the first boat was filled with Sinhalese, who probably are JUST economic refugees (with several exceptions – and a dog)

    The second boat seems to have come from India and will be almost ALL Tamils. This is much, much much more serious given the genocidal nature of the regime.]

    Thanks dtt. After I posted, I realised it must have been the larger boat, not the smaller one the considering they were talking about 40 or so AS.

    And, as you say, it is much more serious.

    Anyway, off to bed. Too many nights staying awake for Wimbledon. Was sort of hoping Federer would win, but Djokovik played so well.

  12. Bugler

    Thats economic migration except for the convicts. Refugees are those that have been proven to have fled in fear of their lives like the Vietnamese did.

  13. PeeBee

    #12

    a chemist would say un – ionized

    and plumbers, before Howard and joe the plumber, would belong to a union – unionised.

  14. “@jmslwlr: Of course Judith Sloan thinks the IMF is moving to the left. When you work for the Australian, everything is “to the left” #qanda #auspol”

  15. Kezza, got it now, thanks. I particularly liked the one where the scientist was cooled to absolute zero. When interviewed he said he was ok. (Works best when it is written).

  16. [PeeBee
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel, I would be interested in your explanation?]

    Sorry, an explanation of what?.

  17. [Roger Miller
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 11:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Record sea ice is a result of landmass ice melting.]

    Thats interesting

  18. PeeBee

    Yes, the absolute zero one was fantastic.

    I think it should have come before the sodium atoms/batman one though.

    It sort of made you start to think of the symbols for the elements and so on.

  19. Tony Jones mentioned that not only have the boaties returned to Sri Lanka been arrested, but that they are due for long stretches in jail.

    This has gotta be a problem for Morrison. He’d better wise those darkies up pretty quick… “If we send ’em back, just let ’em go, mate… or else it’s no more second hand patrol boats for youse.”

  20. Guytaur

    I only partly agree – which is part of the real difficulty.

    As I see it people become refugees because of as mix of factors such as:

    Fear off life or injury as a result of political/military activity
    Fear of life because of war
    Loss of home ie displacement
    Ethnic persecution or disadvantage
    Problems because of lifestyle choices
    Lack of economic opportunity.
    Rejoining family or friends

    There is always a mix in the decision to seek asylum, such that a person with lots of friends and family at home and where life is not in immediate danger may stay behind, but a person with fewer friends and family may be more inclined to flee further. A person with a good job and lifestyle who happens to be gay may stay longer at home whereas a gay guy without a job may be more inclined to take a risk and flee. Both might have a case as a refugee but the second guy is principally an economic migrant with a low probability but real fear of persecution

    I really do think the world needs to better define what is a refugee and perhaps narrow the definition a little to make it easier to distinguish between people in imminent fear of theur life and those with a much much lower risk.

    NO not 1/2 chance – perhaps more like 1/100 or even 1/1000.

  21. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 11:07 pm | PERMALINK
    More than interesting, idiot. It’s a fact. Try wrapping your few remaining brain cells around that.]

    Another name to add to the list.

    cheers BB

  22. DTT

    The definition of refugee is set by international agreement. Until that definition as set out by the UNHCR changes then someone is either a refugee or they are not.

    Until the UN changes that the definition of Refugee is actually pretty concrete.

  23. Many don’t understand how the co-payment works. It’s simple cost shifting to the Doc.

    Our Doc explained it:

    1) the medicare payment to Doc is reduced by $5, which goes into the research fund.

    2) the Doc collects $7 from the patient …….. $5 to compensate medicare cut back and $2 for the Doc.

    Many Abbotteer answers in QT (including today in Senate) spin the yarn “

  24. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 11:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Throw me on as well, Rummel. You’re as dumb as a box of hammers.]

    Thanks WB

  25. (Wrong button!) …..

    ………spin the yarn that it is up to the “clinician” to decide whether to charge the co-payment to particular patients.

    If the Doc decides not to charge it, he/she wears the $7 cost.

    Abbotteer “fairness”!

  26. guytaur,

    by which I mean people seeking “refuge” from economic circumstances could conceptually be called “economic refugees”. I’m not arguing legalities, so much as defending the use of a rather inoffensive term. I don’t think anyone quibbles that “economic refugees” aren’t protected under international and domestic law the same way those fleeing conflict are.

  27. 492

    Please no, this is not instagram or tumblr.

    You could always link to a picture.

    Whipping out a greasemonkey script to make it show up wouldn’t be too hard.

  28. Our Doc says that home visits to the aged in nursing homes, many poor, many demented, will cause untold admin / ethical dilemmas.

    Who pays the $7 at 3am when old demented person needs treatment? How? When? Does Doc now have to send out monthly accounts to the old demented person? And employ extra admin staff? Or just do it himself? Do nursing home staff consider if resident can afford multiple Doc visits? Call Doc or not?

    And isn’t this all red tape!!!!!

    Our Doc’s solution ….. Easier for him to carry the $7 loss.

    More Abbotteer fairness!

  29. I liked the way Stiglitz made no doubts about his dislike of the Hockey Budget and claims of an” emergency”

    Sloan looked quite unhappy with the way he and Garnaut made mincemeat of Govt Policy…she is a Lib advocate on everything but got a hiding tonight

    Stiglitz was great ..and that woman in the audience who made the “Yankee Go Home” statment/question was a Lib too.and handled her query well She wasn’t pleased

    B TW where is Hockey these days ?????no sign of him….hiding ?

  30. Who pays the $7 at 3am when old demented person needs treatment? How? When?

    Yes. It’s all a mess, and it seems like it’s all based on lies and deception from the government.

    If they wanted to introduce a user-pays component for medicare treatment for those who aren’t low income earners the simplest system would be to have the copayment levied as an addition to the medicare levy handled through the tax system – ie you’d get a yearly ‘bill’ as part of your tax assessment for services provided during the year if you earned enough to pay the medicare levy.

    This does a couple of things – it is easy to set up the systems to do this and doesn’t add any complexity to medical professionals, it automatically excludes payments from people who don’t earn enough to pay the medicare levy (and could make the copayment contingent on particular income levels).

    It wouldn’t be a payment at the time of service, but GP clinics would just have to put up a sign (like the notice on fees for ATM use) that they will be billed $7 per service.

    That would all make sense.

    They’re not proposing to do that.

    The reason is presumably that the complexity and payment at the doctor is designed to destroy bulk billing.

    Ideology gone mad.

    But hopefully our new saviour Clive Palmer will save us.

    Sigh.

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