Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.
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| Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.
The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.
Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.
After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 9:56 am | PERMALINK
You didn’t mock me ML. You just make mocking others here an art form]
How?
Yet another good week for the Abbott Government: two senior ministers openly white-anting Abbott.
Polling stuck in the merde.
Abbott has two goes at doing white-arm band history re-writes. Idiot stuff. His chief Indigenous adviser reckons that it was all ‘silly’ instead of pointing out that it was racist.
Oure best friend in Asia is sabre rattling and has just changed the constitution in order to allow the Japanese right wing ultra nationalists another potential crack at ruling China.
A Treasurer who makes a personal effort to make himself look like a goose but who has otherwise received the omerta treatment from Credline.
The attempt to turn attention away from the budget with a bit of jihadi-bashing and sabre rattling failing completely.
Late breaking news that they have hundreds upon hundreds of spin doctors but cannot afford a disability commissioner.
FOFA regulation reforms aimed at opening the field to spivs in the same week when a committee recommends a royal commission into same. Protecting the spivs in the banking industry.
No certainty about whether they are bashing up the cross benchers or actually wanting to talk turkey with them. Cross benchers sticking it to the Coalition.
Still: they had one clear political win: they stopped another couple of boats.
[Gary is onto Gary’s favourite subject: ML
Do you guys reckon you get to bully me and I just sit quietly in the corner and cop it, eh?]
See?
CTaR1
It was a bit like one hand clapping, but. I long to see Piers on Insiders again, explaining how it is all good, and let’s not forget the Heinen Affair.
Well, there’s your problem ML you don’t read what you write.
BK
Thanks for today’s offering. When i read the transcript of Morrison’s presser the other day, i thought it was a monty python sketch, funny to see Annabel Crabbe sees it the same way
Boerwar:
I think it’s pretty obvious that this lot haven’t got a clue.
[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:01 am | PERMALINK
….See?]
As I said, you don’t get to take free pot shots against me.
You make a comment to me, I get to reply.
If another poster then attacks me for doing this, that just proves my point about bullying.
If someone thinks I have insulted anyone, show me the post. If you can’t, I guess you would need to make posts attacking the messenger.
….oh wait…..
I think I was just mocked by ML.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:03 am | PERMALINK
Well, there’s your problem ML you don’t read what you write.]
Actually, it is that you don’t read it, you have started writing your witty retort as soon as you see my avatar on the screen 🙂
If it is so obvious then post where I mocked you, and then post where you addressed the political comment I made (you did, I imagine, didn’t you?)
Ctar1
A real piece of history indeed from the early days of the aircraft industry. We need to sic you on to the NZ government archives.
Further reading on the Boeing website showed those planes were not just the first overseas sale but the very first Boeings built. US navy turned them down so off they went to NZ. Dog knows why.
Anyway , the NZ government bought the purchasing company , including the two planes , what happened to them remains a bit of a mystery. Finding out what happened to Boeings 1 + 2 would be quite a coup. The original pilot looked for years until his death in 1961.
[team Gillard is still crying about who Gillard was treated.. Abbott is getting the same treatment and the left love it…]
What’s good for the gander is good for the goose (and Abbott is a goose).
I love the way right wingers always expect Labor to behave better than the Coalition.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:04 am | PERMALINK
I think I was just mocked by ML.]
The Gary was obsesses by making comments about ML was the first example, actually!
There was no example at the time you made the comment. Giving you are attacking me personally, I am perfectly within my rights to highlight your hypocrisy.
[Bushfire Bill
…I love the way right wingers always expect Labor to behave better than the Coalition.]
Its not behaving better than the Coalition, its just pointing out to you obvious party political bias. The struggles to respond, reverting to attacking the messenger, is just proving the point!
Getting a bit upset there ML. Settle down. I see you don’t like to be challenged over your mocking of others.
When was the last time a Mainstream Journalist has made a Nazi reference in a question to a Minister?
[team Gillard is still crying about who Gillard was treated.. Abbott is getting the same treatment and the left love it…]
I don’t think there is any equivalence between the way Abbott and Gillard are treated. The biggest media block in Australia supports and worships Abbott and worked day and night to bring Gillard down. I don’t know how you’d ever be able to compare the two treatments.
[I love the way right wingers always expect Labor to behave better than the Coalition.]
Look at today’s Liberal party. Not an original idea amongst them, the only thing they can come up with is Labor Bad! Not surprising that their foot soldiers are similarly lacking in innovation and originality.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:10 am | PERMALINK
Getting a bit upset there ML. Settle down. I see you don’t like to be challenged over your mocking of others.]
Upset? Are you kidding? I am laughing my head off…..PB is weekend entertainment for me…..
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:11 am | PERMALINK
I love the way right wingers always expect Labor to behave better than the Coalition.
Look at today’s Liberal party. Not an original idea amongst them,]
Sorry, are we arguing that the LNP is doing nothing, or doing lots of damaging things?
Its hard to follow the logic* here sometimes…..
*perhaps an incorrect assumption being made here
guytuar
I havent seen insiders yet. Will watch it on iview later. But what was the nazi reference?
Good ML. So you enjoy getting here and mocking people. Sounds trollish.
I enjoy making the political comments, and watching the opposition dissolve away into personal attacks, just proving my substantial points yes.
You might like to try addressing the issues, rather than always focussing on me….you might find it more rewarding than trying to bully someone and then finding that they don’t curl up into the foetal position in the corner!
(kitchen heat etc etc)
Boerwar
[and let’s not forget the Heinen Affair]
With Piers the “Heiner Affair” is a reverse Moby Dick.
Isn’t ML at 470 mocking others here? It seems that way to me.
poroti
[A real piece of history indeed from the early days of the aircraft industry. ]
In amongst this collection are copyright lodgings for songs/music (including I recall some wordings for Waltzing Matilda) and a study of Australian wildlife (generally, I think, but maybe only birds). It has,among many, one particular striking illustration of a Lyrebird, drawn in Indian ink, interspersed with the text. This must have been commissioned by the C’wlth.
Gary
Dont waste the energy. You will be going around in circles. 🙂
[Sorry, are we arguing that the LNP is doing nothing, or doing lots of damaging things?]
They’re doing nothing but damaging things. And I agree about the illogic of it all. But then again I didn’t vote for these f*ckers, so don’t go taking your frustrations out on me.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:18 am | PERMALINK
Isn’t ML at 470 mocking others here? It seems that way to me.]
LNP doing nothing
vs.
LNP doing lots of damaging things
Its not a hard concept. Did you want to address it, rather than me, for a change?
victoria
Handing AS back like handing the Jews to the Nazis
[victoria
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:19 am | PERMALINK
Gary
Dont waste the energy. You will be going around in circles.]
Looks like victoria has you tabbed!
The issues ML? Like indicating logic is in short supply on this blog. Yeah that’s addressing the issues not.
poroti:
I’m gathering from Facebook that it’s hosing down in Perth atm?
guytaur
Fran said that? Wow. She must be a little annoyed with the tories!
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:21 am | PERMALINK
Sorry, are we arguing that the LNP is doing nothing, or doing lots of damaging things?
They’re doing nothing but damaging things.]
Ah I see. So you are conceding that your “they are doing nothing” concept was wrong then when you said they had no new ideas.
Glad you have conceded that you made an error!
I think it’s time Mod Lib earned his share of the $43 million and reported back to headquarters on the views expressed here.
We do want them to know how well thought of they are.
I think we can be pretty sure that there was nothing to the ‘Heiner Affair’ because Abbott didn’t order a Royal Commission into it.
[ PatriciaKarvelas @PatsKarvelas · 38m
Jacqui Lambie: How I found Clive Palmer, lost 40kg and now could derail the federal budget http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/jacqui-lambie-how-i-found-clive-palmer-lost-40kg-and-now-could-derail-the-federal-budget/story-fni0cx12-1226978876840 … ]
CTar1
You weren’t kidding when you said it was a real mixture of items.
[Gary
Posted Sunday, July 6, 2014 at 10:22 am | PERMALINK
The issues ML? Like indicating logic is in short supply on this blog. Yeah that’s addressing the issues not.]
YIKES! I am not sure how to make this easier!!!! The two steps perhaps too complex….
LNP doing nothing
or
LNP doing lots of things
Lets start with that, the next step can come once we have established this first step.
On the contrary ML, Victoria has you well worked out and is correct. Time to leave.
ML:
For the Liberal party stuffing everything once they’re in govt is nothing new. They do it all the time and we’ve seen it before both federally and at the state level, both now and in the past. Ergo, no new ideas.
[I enjoy making the political comments, and watching the opposition dissolve away into personal attacks, just proving my substantial points yes.]
Normally that is a good rule, but at some point you’d need to make a substantial point.
No new ideas?
So you don’t accuse them of being liars then? They are just true to form and everything they are doing is predictable.
So why do folk here accuse them of surprising the electorate if they are just true to form, just as they have done in the past?
[Gary
….Time to leave.]
OK, au revoir!
“@peterjhinton: “It makes sense not to comment on operational matters still underway” WHY? Could asylum seekers call in an air strike? #insiders #auspol”
Confessions
May depend where you are. In Perth’s inner southern suburbs about 7 30 we had a short shower and and few gusts of wind, presumably as the front passed. Now calm and not raining.
Oh I think voters are well entitled to accuse them of lying. Pre election they did all they could to pretend things would be calm, rational, adult-like, no rapid changes policy wise other than abolish two taxes. Post election it’s diplomatic stand offs, chaos, budget black holes, blow jobs to the top end of town while screwing over the little guys, coupled with rank incompetence.
Yes the Liberals in govt excel at screwing people over and stuffing up the foundations of our civility, but previous Liberal govts have at least been able to cover this with some semblance of competence. Not so this lot.
No new ideas but lots of new things happening which are damaging the country
Breaking promises even though we could predict exactly what the LNP would do
OK, got it!
rossmcg:
I think the front is about to hit the coast in earnest near Mandurah.