Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.
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| Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.
The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.
Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.
After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.
BK@419
Is that the same Fran Kelly who was so frequently excoriated on PB for being pro-Liberal?
Yep, self same…
[Breaking promises even though we could predict exactly what the LNP would do]
I don’t think people would’ve expected this level of incompetence and cynicism.
To that end, the polls just say it all.
Yes, on that we agree, the Government is well and truly on the nose at the moment!
Fran’s been born again.
Hillsong in reverse.
Mad Lib@426
I am shocked to find myself agreeing with Mad Lib.
Sorry, it’s not a broken promise because people knew you weren’t going to keep your promises?
Obviously ML is getting her media advice from the same people who are advising Morrison…
They can always take lots of action based on old, unoriginal ideas, Mod. Action. Idea. Two different things.
As for being true to form. They are true to what *we* expected of them. They are not necessarily true to what *others* expected of them. Also, what we expected was that they would prove to be a bunch of liars. So yes, they can both be liars and remain true to what we expected of them.
..so we should either be surprised the government has kept its promises, or surprised that they haven’t.
Either way, they’re not a ‘no surprises’ government.
[This aint a union function guys, it doesn’t work like that!]
Lol, they might send the union rebel motor cycle members after you.
[zoomster
….Either way, they’re not a ‘no surprises’ government.]
So you have fashioned things in such a way that you are always right!
I like it, must try that myself sometimes! 🙂
Confessions
Yeah, seen that on radar and just about to head out. Damn
[So you have fashioned things in such a way that you are always right!]
No, I was trying to decode your logic.
It sounds like we have a PB consensus then:
The LNP is not doing anything we didn’t expect them to do.
Yeah?
Mod
[So you have fashioned things in such a way that you are always right!]
This government fashioned it this way. The contradictions you see are not ours, they are the contradictions of deceptive politicians that were pointed out prior to the election. It was frequently noted that their promises were contradictory and that they would have to break one or more of them, even if we were not sure which ones they would break.
No, the LNP are not doing anything we didn’t preclude from our expectations.
Indeed, they have broken promises, and they have done the sorts of things we would have expected them to do, although perhaps a tad harsher than expected. I grant you that.
preclude should be exclude, perhaps.
ML
This LNP has broken promises it took to the election. Called the budget.
Not even th Senate saves them from the fact they took it through the house.
The budget proof positive the LNP lied during the election
ML
no, the government is far worse than I expected.
I expected them to break some of their promises, because – as DN points out, and was pointed out continuously over the last six years or so – their promises were contradictory.
It’s some of the things they didn’t say they were going to do – the treatment of the disabled and of young work seekers being the obvious examples – which have genuinely surprised me.
I knew that there were no moderate Liberals left to speak of, but I didn’t realise that the Liberals had moved so far in the Tea Party direction.
Kevin Bonham
A great analysis. Well done
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/what-kills-state-governments-age-or.html
Last word on the subject (well, I hope so…) — neighbour has just rang me up and apologised to me. (And of course I accepted it…)
ML
Look at the comments of an ex Liberal in Senator Lambi. I am no fan but she seems to have her character assessment correct.
zoomster
I was hoping that the neighbour would sober up and see the error of his ways. Good to hear this has occurred.
Hopefully, he will not drive when drunk again. As he may not be so lucky next time.
[The LNP is not doing anything we didn’t expect them to do.]
Not quite.
I expected there would be broken promises, so-called signature policies dumped when the rationality required in govt took over, and that there would be incompetent ministers.
But this lot are taking all that to whole new levels, even by the standards of the Liberal party. Howard’s govt caused a lot of damage, but they at least pretended they were governing in the national interest. Abbott’s govt aren’t even trying to pretend they’re doing that.
zoomster:
Well that’s good news.
ModLib
A while back you claimed that you were bullied here.
Don’t include me in that.
Telling someone that what they write based on fantasy and/or on dishonesty and/or on trolling intent is in fact utter crap, is not bullying.
It is an act of kindness and a mere statement of truth.
I suspect that the vast majority of replies to you are of that ilk.
Cheers.
[A charitable trust which donates to Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital has lost tens of millions of dollars while still paying its corporate trustee millions in fees, according to a charities lobby group.
The allegations come as the federal government moves to axe the charities watchdog, the Australian Charities and Not for Profits Commission.]
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/player/rnmodplayer.html?pgm=Background%20Briefing&pgmurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fradionational%2Fprograms%2Fbackgroundbriefing%2F&w=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fradionational%2Fmedia%2F5562744.asx&r=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fradionational%2Fmedia%2F5562744.ram&t=Who%20killed%20the%20charity%20watchdog%3F&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fradionational%2Fprograms%2Fbackgroundbriefing%2F2014-07-06%2F5562744&p=1
Sorry my above post relates to this
[Who killed the charity watchdog?]
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2014-07-06/5562744
Peter FitzSimons provides this assessment of Jacqi Lambie
[But have we ever seen one like the just installed Senator Jacqui Lambie from – where else, but – Tassie. Part of the Palmer United Party, her every utterance seems laced with three parts menace to two parts ignorance and five parts sheer bellicosity. Calling the Prime Minister a “political psychopath” this week proved to be among the more mild of her remarks. Most fascinating, was when Mrs TFF interviewed her on the Today Show on Friday and asked her did she have ambitions to be prime minister herself, her response was unequivocal.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/political-mouthing-and-racist-rants-20140704-zsvyq.html#ixzz36dwbxR9g ]
Seems to me he is pretty accurate in his assessment.
Mrs TFF is of course Lisa Wilkinson.
Watching “Insiders” .What a larf to hear that EricA is ” leading the charm offensive” .
@jconnoroz: Jacqui Lambie’s carbon dilemma – it is good for Tasmania http://t.co/hsLxlrzu9u via @ConversationEDU #auspol #climate
[The struggles to respond, reverting to attacking the messenger, is just proving the point!]
I learn at the feet of the Master, Everything.
[psyclaw
….Telling someone that what they write based on fantasy and/or on dishonesty and/or on trolling intent is in fact utter crap, is not bullying.
It is an act of kindness]
The milk of human kindness overflows here!
Good day Bludgeroonies, good day! 🙂
The new Senate sits tomorrow.
The government is madly keen for a vote on the repeal of the mining and carbon taxes. For the crossbenches, that gives rise to a set of complex issues, requiring time, thought and staff work.
At the same time, the government had made controversial FoFA regulations, but reportedly doesn’t intend to table them.
Perhaps the ALP/Greens/PUP tacticians in the Senate could kill multiple birds with one stone by putting up a motion to defer any vote on the mining and carbon taxes until the FoFA regulations have been tabled.
pedant:
I thought the govt found a way to water down the FoFA regulations without needing to pass legislative amendments?
poroti – Digging around in old records yields lots of surprises. Things you think will be interesting often turn out to be boring as bat s$it, other stuff you think will be mundane aren’t, stuff that you think should still exist doesn’t, and then there’s stuff like this –
[Although reports of the pre-arrangement had leaked out within days, Sir Anthony Eden, the British Prime Minister later denied the existence of such an agreement. When the existence of signed copies of the secret protocol was leaked, Eden sent Dean back to France on the 25 October to collect all copies and leave no trace of the agreements. Christian Pineau at the Quai d’Orsay refused to comply, since the Israeli diplomats had already left France. For Eden, the existence of the Protocol was a catastrophe: a smoking gun that exposed the full extent of collusion between Britain, France and Israel. He was concerned that revelation of the agreement would be a threat to all three governments.
The original Israeli copy of the Protocol of Sèvres is said to be kept within the Ben-Gurion Archives.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protocol_of_S%C3%A8vres
This agreement is generally believed to have been burnt by Anthony Eden in the back courtyard of number 10. There’s still a PM’s Direction to UK document ‘weeders’ that if they come across any mention of Sir Patrick Dean or Sèvres that the documents be referred to the Cabinet Office.
It may be in the Foreign Services archives. Theirs are very disorganised and stored in a warehouse out in the sticks (Birmingham, I think). They’ve been given a bollocking by a Parliamentary Committee recently after they revealed that they have documents stored that have never been evaluated or that they consider ‘Secret’. The eldest of which is dated 1792 and relates to some agreement with the Spanish Govt!
Bushfire Bill
As our resident 3-D printer guru this may be of interest.
[3D printed organs come a step closer
Australian and US scientists make major medical breakthrough in printing vascular network
But in a major medical breakthrough, researchers from Sydney and Harvard universities have managed to 3D bio-print capillaries, the tiny channels that allow vascularisation to take place so that cells can sustain themselves and survive.
Using a high-tech “bio-printer”, the researchers fabricated tiny, interconnected fibres to serve as the mould for the artificial blood vessels.
They then covered the 3D printed structure with a cell-rich protein-based material, which was solidified by shining light on it.
Lastly they removed the bio-printed fibres to leave behind a network of tiny capillaries coated with human endothelial cells, which formed stable blood capillaries in less than a week.]
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jul/04/3d-printed-organs-step-closer
Many poster here have expressed views that Abbott is a political sociopath, so are we going to treat Jacqui Lambie the same way as we treated Pauline Hanson?
David Marr is going to dismiss her out of hand as a silly woman- and I think the rest of the media will follow. Will Abbott have her jailed?
Guytaur,
[When was the last time a Mainstream Journalist has made a Nazi reference in a question to a Minister?]
Made all the more delicious by the fact that Abetz’s Grand Uncle SS-Standartenführer Otto Abetz was at one time Hitler’s personal translator, rose to Nazi Ambassador to France, andlater was a convicted war criminal who got 20 years for aiding in the deportation of Jews to the death camps.
Eric Abetz is said to be very sensitive about references to Uncle Otto. One can only imagine that Fran Kelly ate an extra bowl of Wheeties this morning, or forgot about the connection.
She’d be in trouble for this, I’d expect. Can an apology be far behind, or would Eric just want the whole thing quietly dropped?
Mod, you too have claimed you are here to teach others by pointing out their fantasies. No wonder you fit right in :angel:.
Dutton is the constable plod of politics. Obviously the Peter Principle operates in coalition politics as he has been promoted way over his abilities in the health portfolio. He avoids interviews for good reason: I saw him interviewed on 7.30 and he was an absolute disaster. As far as I know the only people taken with him are Murdoch bottom feeders.
@Billie/539
Pauline Hanson is a dis-disgrace of a politician.
disgrace*
confessions @ 536: Apparently regulations have been made by the Governor-General, with, as Peter Martin notes here, little fanfare.
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2014/07/fofa-how-commonwealth-bank-got-what-it.html
Such regulations are, however, subject to disallowance by the Senate. Hence my suggestion that it would be a good idea for the opposition to try to put a spanner into those particular works.
CTar1
[It may be in the Foreign Services archives. Theirs are very disorganised ]
An excellent way for them to preserve items that pollies may wish to “disappear”.
Fran was just quoting Malcolm Fraser.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=744394142265401&set=a.341915052513314.75244.341910905847062&type=1&relevant_count=1
poroti – From what can be worked out it appears that some plonker ditched all the file registration records and indexes pre 1950 …
The FO faces a mammoth job just to list what they have, let alone decide what to do with the records themselves.
botswana bob
Dutton so bad you can now call someone ‘A Dutton’ (= idiot/incompetent).
Just been down for a yarn with Bluey.
He reckons that Rolf is a disgrace to the octopus race, the Pope can’t possibly be a catholic, and that Abbott had better stay away from tide pools or he will have more than budgies in his smugglers.