Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a slight improving trend for the Abbott government in recent weeks, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result has it back to its worst.

The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.

Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.

UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:

• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).

• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.

On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.

The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,274 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Retweeted by Lady Van Badham
    Jansant ‏@Jansant 2m

    #horrified by @AustralianLabor’s silence over Morrison’s human rights abuses and possible refoulment of #refugees #auspol

  2. Retweeted by Lady Van Badham
    Kris Erskine ‏@Kestrel1968 7m

    @ScottMorrisonMP I expect a public apology for your unChristian, vile treatment of people seeking asylum #horrified #auspol

  3. MTBW

    So horrific and disgusting that if these increasing reports are true I think the High Court will rule offshore illegal.

  5. rummel
    That article seems to be saying we’ve exceeded temperatures during el nino conditions without necessarily being in el nino.

    Regardless, even assuming it’s el nino, el nino doesn’t add or remove heat from earth’s system, it simply shifts it around. In other words, whether or not we’re in el nino, the record temperatures must be a result of something that isn’t el nino.

  7. Some meaningful distinctions will need to be drawn between Nauru and PNG since the government defended PNG easily in the High Court

  8. If natural El Niño warming has caused all the trouble how will the tax help again? I’m loving all the warmist talk of El Niño, it’s a sad state that the warmist wagon is hitched to natural warming to prove there case and drum up support.

    Anyway, the hyped El Niño this year is slipping under the waves, hiding the heat in the deep ocean. Dam that hiding heat.

  13. In the twilight space that is rummel’s mind, record high temperatures are evidence that the temperature of the Earth’s surface is falling, not rising; the arrival of El Nino is evidence that there is no El Nino, and its absence is proof that it’s here.

    Each thing that is observed is irrefutable proof it does not exist and each thing that is missing is everywhere to be found.

  14. rummel, el nino only causes local warming, it doesn’t add or remove heat from the entire system. So, higher temperatures than normal, indicate more heat in the system the cause of which is not el nino.

    How hard is this to understand?

  15. Rummel

    “If natural El Niño warming has caused all the trouble how will the tax help again? I’m loving all the warmist talk of El Niño, it’s a sad state that the warmist wagon is hitched to natural warming to prove there case and drum up support.

    Anyway, the hyped El Niño this year is slipping under the waves, hiding the heat in the deep ocean. Dam that hiding heat.”

    I am sure you think that you are being clever or something…

    But you’re not. Your logic is stupid.

  19. I think rummel thinks el nino produces extra warmth by friction or something. All that extra rubbing of wind and waves and voila, you get heat. Just like rubbing your hands together. You know it makes sense.

  20. I have just phoned Scott Morrison’s Electorate Office to register my protest about what is happening with these refugees.

    I asked how Scott Morrison’s family came to Australia.

    I also said he didn’t look Aboriginal to me.

    The young lady was pleasant and said she would pass it on.

    I also said that he defines himself as a Christian and that what he is doing is not anything like Christian behaviour.

    I also said I was a former political staffer.

    Over to you:

    His electorate office phone number is (02)95230339.

  22. Morrison wants to be able to boast during the next election campaign that NOT ONE BOAT HAS ARRIVED UNDER THIS GOVERNMENT’S WATCH.

    The safety of children is naught compared to this alluring goal. Morrison is a seriously sick puppy, abetted all the way by his deranged master.

  24. Don’t worry guys, the June world wide temp data is in…… Hold back your anger… But the pause continues 🙂

    The warmist models continue to blast away from the reservation and actual observed temps… Maybe El Niño warming will bring back a tad credibility to the cause…

  26. “@MrDenmore: I’m #horrified that Christian’ politicians can use the desperate plight of refugees & the fears of ignorant people to advance theiur careers”

    Note the hashtag

  28. rummel, imagine you fill a bucket of hot water in your laundry. You move it around your house and each location you take it to gets warmer. Then you notice that not only does a bucket event in a room produce warming, the temperature of each bucket event is even higher than the previous one.

    Do you conclude that
    a) the temperature of the bucket normally increases by itself
    b) your house is on fire

  29. [The warmist models continue to blast away from the reservation and actual observed temps… Maybe El Niño warming will bring back a tad credibility to the cause…]

    No I think the hope is that extreme lived events will help more and more people overcome the fools and liars who continually sprout absolutely stupid things denying climate change which continues rampant.

  30. The ‘repatriation’ of these asylum seekers should be closely monitored for evidence of persecution.

    Morrison will have blood all over his hands if any of them are wronged.

  31. “Don’t worry guys, the June world wide temp data is in…”

    This would be UAH?

    Remember that is the temp of a portion of the atmosphere a couple of kilometres in the air. It’s measured by microwave emissions and is an average of temps over a few kilometers.

    It’s not that good.

  32. @bkjabour: That didn’t take long! @JustinianNews has been snaffled up by @GuardianAus. Officially columnist and legal editor at large

  37. On twitter last night

    [Joe Stiglitz said at ANU tonight that if a company had debt as low as Oz govt they would be accused of having a lazy balance sheet #auspol]

  38. In today’s Age Jonathan Holmes refers to a report by the Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science. The report discusses the need to rethink the communication of climate science and, in particular, the dangers posed by climate change. A couple of quotes from the report set the scene:


    (Holmes)
    Too many scientists think that if people disbelieve their information, the answer is to give them more information. But the psychologists know better.

    (report)
    Disagreement within climate discourse is more to do with differences in values and world-views… than it is about scientific facts.

    (Holmes)
    We accept information that confirms our prior beliefs, and reject information that does not. It’s called “my side bias”, and it has nothing to do with intelligence or education. On the contrary:

    (report)
    The people at greater risk of becoming polarised over climate change are those who perceive themselves as intelligent and scientifically literate.

    Hello rummel and his PB ‘advisors’!

  39. Rummel

    I am still waiting for you to tell us all about your scientific qualifications.

    Surely your confidence pronouncements on climate change are based on something more than arrogance, cherry picking and stupidity.

  40. “@safimichael: Extraordinary argument over whether asylum seekers are living in shipping containers. Cormack objects, calls them “modular accomodation””

  41. “@safimichael: Cormack says it’s not a shipping container because it has windows, air conditions. “Containerised accommodation””

  42. Guytaur

    A lot of accommodation at minesites is in old shipping containers. They convert them to dongas. They’re pretty good and spacious.

  44. Cherry picking? Co2 is sky rocketing and the temps are not… So yes there is a cherry picking problem. Warmest don’t have enough cherrys to pick against what the billion dollar computers program’s say we should.

  46. Rummel,

    Cherry picking in action.

    How about addressing my whole post. In particular, what scientific qualifications do you have. It seems unlikely to me that you would even have managed high school physics.

  48. rummel, when the pot of water sitting on your stove pauses at 100 degrees, do you conclude that
    a) your stove turned itself off
    b) the heat is going into something else other than raising the water temperature

  50. Inner Westie

    [Morrison will have blood all over his hands if any of them are wronged.]
    That the thing about what the bastard is doing. Nobody knows who they are let alone what happens to them . Live or die they it will be like they never existed.

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