The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.
Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.
Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.
UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:
• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).
• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.
On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.
The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.
Display name.
Are you suggesting the pacific has reached boiling point and can’t get any hotter as it’s converting to steam?
I noticed how denialists like rummel (I won’t even use the word skeptic here), when presented with scientific fact, responds with something like, “Is that so?”, then goes on to attack any methods to address it in a defeatist way of “it’s never going to work”.
We’ve already been shown data that our efforts have cut down carbon so far by a significant amount (10% alone in the power generation sector).
You can say that the temperature rise has paused all you like, but it does not stop the record high temperatures meaning that the temperature is rising.
Shorter Rummell:
* Whenever temperature go down it is evidence that Global Warming does not exist.
* Whenever temperatures go up it is simply weather.
Exhibit 1: El Nino.
Rummel
“Cherry picking? Co2 is sky rocketing and the temps are not… So yes there is a cherry picking problem. Warmest don’t have enough cherrys to pick against what the billion dollar computers program’s say we should.”
Two answers to this.
1) the response of the atmosphere to CO2 is not linear.
2) the global temp is not the total energy of the system.
The response we are having is pretty close to the modelled response. Although I am sure you will disagree despite having zero understanding of how the models work.
Try reading some of the science rather than Watts Up With That. Anthony Watts is so discredited now that he’s a joke. Where is his grand paper showing that it’s all Urban Heat Island? Where is the supposed great cooling that takes us down to an ice age. It’s all rubbish over there.
Inner Westie
I know that the Policy Commission means well, but there really is no point trying to work out how to talk to hardened climate change dissonants — and for just the reasons they point out. Their commentary has no basis in science or reason at all, but is merely an expression of their preferred reality. The problem with the report as I see it is that in an attempt to appear balanced, it does false equivalence. It implies that those who support the IPCC consensus are also doing so out of cultural conviction. It’s hard to see how they could prove this to be so.
IMO once it becomes clear that one is in a conversation with a climate dissonant — typically they start citing their catechism quite early — there’s really no point in talking about climate science with them at all. One would be better either abandoning the discussion altogether as a complete waste of time, or discussing instead their string priors — their fears for the future, socio-spatial angst, their moralism or other rightwing doctrine and so forth.
It’s important to keep in mind that these folk are a pathetic minority in most jurisdictions and really have almost no say in what policies are adopted, though the elite has an interest un feeding their delusions of relevance. This would remain true even if they were the majority because infrastructure policy — and action on climate change really comes down to that — is decided in most countries by a relative handful of very wealthy folk who decide whether it suits them to act on the matter. That’s how most decisions are taken. Abbott is hardly ever right, but his asserted policy of seeking forgiveness rather than permission is pretty much how the elite goes about its business.
Arguing with such folk lends their banter a dignity that it hasn’t earned. A derisive snort and a toss of the head would be far more apt. If you can communicate that their remarks mark them out as someone who just figuratively soiled him or herself in public their willingness to avow nonsense declines. Indeed, if the report is correct — that people who perceive themselves as more intelligent are more inclined to ignore scientific evidence (Dunning Kruger) — then making them doubt their intellect is a good strategy.
One of the office staff where I work is a Liberal and a denier. Once, at a staff morning tea, she made some silly denier observation. Most of us, to preserve decorum, were willing to change the subject, but I simply pretended she was doing satire, laughed and said. “Oh Gail, your impressions of Alan Jones are gold! For a moment there you had me convinced you were one of those denier loons who is trying to trash the planet.”
There was some general embarrassed tittering, but she never tried it again. These days, when we have conversations about politics, she always prefaces it with “I suppose you will think me terribly rightwing and stupid but …”
To which my response always is … “Well let’s wait and see shall we?”
rummel @ 901
Not only that, but at 878 I was suggesting your house is really on fire too!
Rummel Start here:
http://scienceofdoom.com/2014/06/26/the-greenhouse-effect-explained-in-simple-terms/
By saying that Global Warming is not real you are claiming that both Max Planck and Subrahmanyan Chandrasehkhar were wrong. Both of whom are Nobel Prize winning physicists. They published their work in the 30s and 50s. So it would be strange for them to be wrong and no one to have noticed.
I see rummel has done another drive by .Erratic, poorly aimed shots , and typical , at the wrong house
Excellent expose of why electricity costs as much as it does. And yes Virginia, the Lying Friar is up to his cassock in it.
[Let’s be clear: this is the single biggest reason power prices have skyrocketed. According to the federal treasury, 51% of your electricity bill goes towards “network charges”. The carbon tax, despite relentless propaganda to the contrary, is small beer, comprising just 9%. The rest of your bill is carved up between those companies that actually generate your electricity (20%) and the retailers who package it up and sell it to you (20%). The Renewable Energy Target is such a small cost impost, the treasury’s analysis doesn’t even include it; the Australian Energy Market Commission says it makes up around 5%.]
http://bit.ly/1rNPQ29
rummel@901
I shouldn’t give you oxygen, but anyhow, look up the word analogy, which is obviously not in your vocabulary.
Luckily science doesn’t care whether you think the earth is round or flat. Your opinion on the matter is of no consequence.
[I shouldn’t give you oxygen, but anyhow, look up the word analogy, which is obviously not in your vocabulary. ]
Don, I don’t think any word in rummel’s vocabulary ends in -ology: meteorology, climatology, biology, geology.
Except maybe apology (as in, apology for a human being).
The Silver Bodgie
Re Albrechtson
Of course she will get the gig – Michael Kroger is her partner.
sprocket:
[Excellent expose of why electricity costs as much as it does. And yes Virginia, the Lying Friar is up to his cassock in it.]
This is the one silver lining to the carbon tax repeal. Electricity prices will continue to go up, and the Friar won’t have a leg to stand on.
@climatecouncil: It’s not just Australia that’s been having extreme winter weather: http://t.co/DPqNsQyOjs
@drewsheldrick: Irish government to pass law to stop religious-run schools and hospitals from firing gay/divorced/single parent staff http://t.co/WaAWbNsYIn
910
Interesting read! I’ve always thought the reason we keep paying so much was to pay for network expansion to power those air-conditioning units we so love to run during the summer (so that we don’t get brownouts). Didn’t know there was so much else to it.
Here are some numbers. They show the global temperature anomalies for the month of June from 1979 till the present. The mean temp period with which each month is compared is 1980-2010.
For June
Year Anomaly
1979 -0.20
1980 +0.04
1981 -0.08
1982 -0.16
1983 -0.14
1984 -0.28
1985 -0.30
1986 -0.20
1987 +0.09
1988 +0.04
1989 -0.27
1990 +0.04
1991 +0.28
1992 -0.25
1993 -0.11
1994 0.00
1995 +0.07
1996 -0.18
1997 -0.06
1998 +0.51
1999 -0.18
2000 0.00
2001 -0.01
2002 +0.31
2003 +0.03
2004 +0.02
2005 +0.23
2006 +0.14
2007 +0.21
2008 -0.10
2009 0.00
2010 +0.38
2011 +0.26
2012 +0.25
2013 +0.30
2014 +0.30
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2014-0-30-deg-c/
Quite obviously, the last five Junes (2010-2014) have been the hottest consecutive sequence for this month in the record. They show a 5-year mean anomaly of +0.250 degrees. This can be readily compared with the first five Junes shown (1979-84) which had a mean anomaly of -0.128 degrees. Over a five-year average, June months have been around 0.38 degrees warmer than in the early 1980’s, expressed globally.
As well, as has been widely reported for May 2014…
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/nasa-076c-may-anomaly-hints-2014-will-be-hottest-year.html
For a longer time frame, with a different base period (1951-1980), bludgers may also enjoy this:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt
Grrrr…my typo…the mean anomaly for the last 5 Junes is +29.8, meaning Junes have been about 0.42 degrees warmer than in the first half of the 1980’s.
People need to understand that the true “leaners” in our society are the rich because they live off the work of others rather than produce their own wealth.
This made me smile
http://imgur.com/GpKjTCY
@Simon_Cullen: Palmer United Party Senators will sit between Labor & Greens in the new Senate seating plan: http://t.co/q6fk4fjzim (h/t @gpward72)
Not good news for Abbott
Yep, great piece on power prices: http://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2014/july/1404136800/jess-hill/power-corrupts
CO2 price and RET are the least imprtant factors. Mostly its unnecessary infrastructure spending, promoting by a poorly regulated, shoddy faux-market, with perverse incentives to over invest.
Guytaur
At the risk of enraging some, I’ll say thanks. Nothing like a cat video to brighten my day.
Check this one out – we all paid for this naked spiv’s paradise ripoff! And then morons and stooges blame the CO2 price.
[The most shocking example of this overinvestment was found, unsurprisingly, in NSW. “We discovered a network business that had invested $30 million in a substation in Newcastle. I actually visited the substation. It wasn’t connected to the grid. So you’ve got an investment in a piece of infrastructure – paid for by consumers through their electricity bills – that wasn’t connected to the grid and wasn’t needed,]
kakuru
Even if the price never goes down the lying Friar will claim that the price would have been $550 higher were it not for him.
Murdoch has a rare good article – another consequence of the Hockey/Abbott gloom & doom rhetoric:
[The proportion of Australians giving to charity dropped from 71 per cent in 2010 to 65 per cent this year…
Researchers linked the belt tightening to pessimism about the future.
Our whole national discourse feeds into this hunkering down. There’s a “budget crisis’’. We need fiscal responsibility. Spending is out of control. Cost of living is through the leaky roof.
All of which is overblown rhetoric designed to make you suck up nasty budgets, of course. ..
It suits a particular political purpose to make us feel as though we’re heading for a cliff, with the Government’s diligent bungee cord saving us from near doom.
The incidental consequence of that is that we hunker down in our caves, shrink our sphere of caring to our nearest and dearest.
It can’t help that so many religious bodies meant to protect the vulnerable are currently being dragged through the murk of the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sex Abuse.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/tory-shepherd-were-becoming-a-nation-of-tight-arses-when-it-comes-to-giving-to-charity/story-fni6unxq-1226974227275?nk=5ed64795a0bb6a11642114227d45e744
I just saw that on Reddit guytaur. Real cute. I wonder if I could train my cat to sleep on a hammock.
Abbott seems to be upping the rhetoric aimed at the Senate cross benches:
[TONY Abbott has cautioned against programming “our kids to fail”, as he defended a welfare reform set to face defeat in the new Senate.
The Australian revealed today that a fight is looming over the “earn or learn” budget measure, with the new Family First and Liberal Democratic Party senators confirming their opposition to the policy.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-hopes-to-sway-senate-crossbench-on-welfare-reforms/story-fn59niix-1226975094681#
@BusinessSpec: The Associated Press has announced it is replacing business journalists with computer programs http://t.co/2qHYzyiLT3
Might be an improvement
ross and raaraa
Yeah it was a good one. No way I could train my cat. He either would do it or not.
Malcolm Farr buys into the mystery of the disappearing Sri Lankan asylum seekers and adds to the speculation over their fate.
http://www.news.com.au/national/mystery-of-two-asylum-seeker-boats-said-to-be-in-australian-waters-intensifies/story-fncynjr2-1226974972876
Raaraa,
Fills you with the spirit of hope that one day Rummel may learn to understand climate change. It will take more than four months though.
[ Where is his grand paper showing that it’s all Urban Heat Island? ]
I like the latest theme on NutterTruckers that is all the Sun and the mysterious force X that acts on an 11 year time lag to peak TSI. Seriously.
Oh, and we are in for major global cooling in the next couple of years. 🙂
I’d actually like them to be somewhat right about this, since AGW is a little scary, but suspect they have been torturing the available data too much and are getting artefacts.
More on the Sri Lankan asylum seekers – this seems to be a leak from within Customs & Immigration:
[The second asylum seeker boat to recently attempt the journey to Australia has been intercepted by Australian officials who allegedly screened people on board via a teleconference.
A source from the immigration department has confirmed the ACV Triton, a 98-metre Australian customs patrol boat, intercepted the asylum seeker vessel on the weekend.
The boat was initially thought to have come from Java, Indonesia, but Fairfax Media understands the boat departed from Sri Lanka.
It is understood interpreters were brought into the Sydney and Melbourne offices of the department on Saturday and Sunday to help ”screen” the asylum seekers.
Four questions were allegedly asked of the 50 passengers, including their name, country of origin, where they had come from and why they had left…
It comes as there are unconfirmed reports 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers on board another boat have been handed over to the Sri Lankan navy.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-department-officials-screen-asylum-seekers-at-sea-via-teleconference-20140702-3b837.html#ixzz36HocUxQ4
933
Not holding my breath, mate. There are those who are ill informed, and then there are those who refuse to learn.
Let’s also add a category that there are those who refuse to accept facts to continue to push their agenda through.
942 guytaur
Mine’s just really good at training me to let her sit on my lap.
[I like the latest theme on NutterTruckers that is all the Sun and the mysterious force X that acts on an 11 year time lag to peak TSI. Seriously.
Oh, and we are in for major global cooling in the next couple of years.]
Presumably they are all investing madly in blanket stocks, before the rush and worldwide shortage.
Briefly
You might like this chloropleth which shows the parts of Australia that were record above average, very much above average and average temperature for June:
https://twitter.com/p_hannam/status/484112653321662464/photo/1
There’s a spot in North QLD and another in NT/WA that are average. other than that, it’s all above average, much of it well above or record.
“@jonkudelka: Presumably rejected asylum seekers are informed by frowny emoticon.”
imacca
[I like the latest theme on NutterTruckers that is all the Sun and the mysterious force X that acts on an 11 year time lag to peak TSI. Seriously. ]
Is this the same NutterTrucker that claims Mars is warming as well?
Fran Barlow
Over the ditch, NZ just had the hottest June on record.
Interesting article on Victoria’s Labor leaning ways.
[
There’s something about Victoria
Paul Rodan looks at Victoria’s stubborn tendency to vote Labor in state and federal elections
]
http://inside.org.au/theres-something-about-victoria/
938
Fran Barlow
Thanks Fran
Must be update day. Android 4.4.4 and iOS 7.1.2 both lob on the same day to my tabletty thingos.
Re: Senate Seating Plan
It looks like Muir will have Rice, Ludlam and Lambie in his ear.
Poroti
I also saw a graph that purported to show that NZ’s richest 1% had only about 6% of the wealth. I think France’s 1% do marginally worse, but speaking as an egalitarian, well done them.
In other news apparently Ricky Muir was momentarily named as government whip in the Senate. You have to laugh.
imacca
That Force X thing is pretty fun.
This blog explains it very nicely using physics! Apparently it’s because you shouldn’t expect to see the TSI variation because of Ozone…
http://rabett.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/maybe-there-is-something-you-dont-know.html
So the Force X came about because David Evans doesn’t understand the physics of the atmosphere. Who would have thought??? I believe David is married to Jo Nova.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jun/05/contrarians-accidentally-confirm-global-warming-consensus
Force X.
Ah yes, the inevitable invocation of hidden variables. The friend of spivs and idiots throughout the ages.
Also known as making shit up.