The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.
Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.
Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).
Retweeted by sortius
Telegraph World News @TelegraphWorld 5h
Global Peace Index: Syria replaces Afghanistan as the world’s least peaceful country http://fw.to/CdsxAjl pic.twitter.com/pV5LqOAHe3
You have to be kidding zoidlord!
1083
deblonay
The Austro-Hungarian empire was obviously internally unstable by the end of the 19th century and, having failed to reform and modernise itself following the revolutions of 1848, would come under pressure to fragment at some time. The events in Sarajevo in 1914 were an expression of parochial fragmentation, but there were other similar pressures in Hungary too. Where Germany had been unified and modernised by nationalist forces, it must have been obvious to Bismarck that these same forces would more likely break Austria apart.
Germany was allied to a politically archaic, militarily antiquated, and economically backward power. An inherently unstable partner, moreover Austria had a history of conflict with Russia, which itself was allied to France and Britain. It must have been very obvious to Bismarck that if anything went wrong in the Austro-Hungarian provinces – either around the Black Sea or in the Balkans – then conflict between Germany and Russia could easily ensue and all hell would break loose.
German planning was predicated on exactly such a situation. While Prussian planners have blamed for “starting the war”, essentially they’ve been faulted for being right about the strategic situation they faced. They simply failed to anticipate how the war would be fought…and were not at all unique in that.
[1088
zoidlord
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 39s
#ReachTEL Poll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 36.6 (-0.4) ALP 32.1 (-0.5) PUP 14.1 (+1.8) #qldpol #auspol]
Voters have realised that Incomes Will Always Be Lower Under A Liberal Government and a gravitating to othe rparties, including to the LNP split-off PUP.
There was a High Court ruling on AS today, in particular as it relates to PNG, not that you’d know it from comments here.
Oh what a difference a change of govt makes. When was the last time we saw scores of commenters here hand-wringing about AS? Not since the election by my take.
One good thing about the advent of a Liberal govt federally: application of hysterical language such as liberal use of the word ‘rendition’ has been seriously dialed back.
It’ll be interesting to see either of the major parties having to form a minority government.
Mid winter ball
Mrs Shorten does exude some of her mother’s sophistication
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/canberra-goes-gatsby-for-the-midwinter-ball-at-parliament-house-20140618-zsdws.html#
[One good thing about the advent of a Liberal govt federally: application of hysterical language such as liberal use of the word ‘rendition’ has been seriously dialed back.]
Yes, funny that.
And ask yourself what a nonsense certain advocates have become:
They won their battle: High Court in effect says Malaysia unsafe, PNG safe.
That is the sort of perverse outcomes you get when you try to make up policy through legal challenges for individual cases, rather than looking at the bigger picture.
With legal “friends” like these, asylum seekers need no enemies.
AccuWeather.com @breakingweather 1m
Powerful thunderstorms will impact 65 million people from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic: http://ow.ly/yaGk7
Storms/Floods/etc/Tornados still going crazy in USA.
confessions:
The ruling was no great surprise. The federal government was always able to undertake offshore processing.
The great legal victory was the demolition of the Malaysian rendition, for exactly the reasons why rendition is a very apt term. The High Court prevented the ALP from sending vulnerable people to another country without protections.
The High Court was protecting vulnerable people, and the ALP supporters here criticised this (how are you ruawake, by the way?).
David Manne is a hero of mine, and I have wished him the best of luck screwing the Cambodian plans as well, although he told me there is precious little chance of success these days since the ALP simply reworded the legislation to remove any need to protect human rights and give the Minister carte blanche to do whatever s/he wants*
* are you guys proud of your party for this?
@Mod Lib/1111
Why do you think I do not like Off shore processing, creates a legal mind field, let alone other issues it creates.
It does indeed create a legal mind field.
It also creates a moral mind field, but confessions appears to have penetrated it.
* Costs billions of dollars in both Legal and operating costs of Death Centers.
* Ties up our legal system with court cases, and our political system.
* Moral, Ethical, Lack of Human Rights, And down right pathetic.
* It’s like we are going back into time with Slavery, and the treatment of the Disabled in Asylum Centers in USA in the early 1900’s.
Hear, hear, zoidlord!
🙂
Juan Cole, Professor of History at the University of Michigan, makes the following contention that the US and its Allies should keep their military out of Iraq’s and Syria’s current sectarian conflicts.
[For the US to be bombing Sunni towns all these years later on behalf of Mr. al-Maliki would be to invite terrorism against the US. ISIS is a bad actor, but it so far hasn’t behaved like an international terrorist group; it has been oriented to achieving strategic and tactical victories in Syria against the Baath government and the Shiite Alawis, and in Iraq against the Shiite Da’wa Party government. But it could easily morph into an anti-American international terrorist network. The US should avoid actions that would push it in that direction. So far the Baath regime in Syria is winning against the Sunni radicals. The Shiite majority in Iraq can’t easily be overwhelmed by them. Local actors can handle this crisis.]
Qld seem to have been watching Pepe in the World Cup. They also seem to be extremely keen on giving the ball back to NSW.
Who won?
Full credit to the ref for winning it for NSW.
State of Origin. What a farce! What drivelling, puerile nonsense!
A puling, ranting commentator rabbits on with a load of rubbish while the screen shows that one player needs three of the opposing team to tackle him. When one man tackles the opposing player he is penalised. All the while there is niggling, off the ball nastiness which is ignored by the White Brigade, applauded by the commentariat.
No wonder Tony Abbott was elected PM of Australia when this rubbish, complete with adverts for Tom, is touted as top-level sport.
Finally….does this mean we can stop talking about the SOO for another 8 years or so?
Well we’ve lost it 🙁
muttleymcgee
I take it you are not a fan of rugby league?
Possibly the worst game of RL I have ever seen but after 8 years who cares – the BLUES WON.
[Finally….does this mean we can stop talking about the SOO for another 8 years or so?]
Nope Qld has to win in three weeks time and get it back next year no letting the cockroaches think they got this one by anything other than luck and a really really dodgy referee call.
What was the dodgy referee call? I haven’t watched…
Mitchell Pearce was the difference between the two sides
Queenslander obviously dropped the ball as he was crossing the line – excellent call by ref.
[What was the dodgy referee call? I haven’t watched…]
The ball was called out on the full from the kick off and penalty to NSW when it had clearly hit a NSW player.
[Queenslander obviously dropped the ball as he was crossing the line – excellent call by ref.]
The try was 50:50 could have gone either way but like the ref all night it went to NSW.
About time.
It’s usually NSW who are the better team but lose the game, this time it was the reverse.
*still counting the money from backing them to win the series before game 1 god bless them.
“I take it you are not a fan of rugby league?”
Your first clue was ……?
Even soccer, which fails to utilise the two defining attributes which have enabled homo sapiens to attain dominance over the rest of the animal world, namely a larger brain and an opposing thumb (neither of which is utilised in soccer) has more appeal than this mindless, run run run CRASH, run run run CRASH, run run run CRASH, run run run CRASH, run run run KICK! nonsense.
Yuck!!
you kicked on the 5th tackle -fool
[are you guys proud of your party for this?]
Yes.
[“I take it you are not a fan of rugby league?”
Your first clue was ……?
Even soccer, which fails to utilise the two defining attributes which have enabled homo sapiens to attain dominance over the rest of the animal world, namely a larger brain and an opposing thumb (neither of which is utilised in soccer) has more appeal than this mindless, run run run CRASH, run run run CRASH, run run run CRASH, run run run CRASH, run run run KICK! nonsense.
Yuck!!]
Grow up.
Um OK, so what’s happened to the avatars and post numbers?
Well at least you are consistent in your position, Psephos, no matter how much I disagree!
There are others here who pretend to only want the boats to stop, and then when they do, they find some other goalpost to help their team “win” as they see it (“stuff the victims, whats the score”).
muttley
Sorry, a large brain is very useful in soccer.
Only last Sunday, one of the local senior coaches (in conversation with my husband) attributed the star qualities of one player to his ‘brains and feet’ – and they both agreed that foot skills without brains aren’t terribly useful.
I think its you Centre…..
Mod Lib and his legal mates have had it their way, asylum seekers are safely in PNG rather than that violent country, Malaysia.
You know it makes sense.
Centre
Check Go to desktop version bottom of screen. Shows up like a link
The good fight even the small battles…
At least no Queensland flag on the harbour bridge this year
muttleymcgee
As an aussie rules fan, i have never been able to embrace RL. Each to their own i guess
My son’s bon mot re tomorrow morning’s game …
“I’m praying for a victory for the Socceroos. I think it’s highly improbable that God exists, but it’s more likely than us beating the Netherlands…”
Guytaur
Cool
Everything
Of course it’s me 😛
victoria@1143
AFL makes watching grass grow an attractive pastime.
CTar1
Welcome to the 56 club. I hope you had a fabulous day. It sounds as if it was most stimulating.
zoomster:
very nice! 🙂
And that is the first time an iPhone has been used to photograph NSW holding the SoO trophy… Apple may no longer exist next time it happens
BTW, I don’t watch RL much anymore, but was the refereeing just a tad one sided?
BTW2, Is Paul Gallen the grubbiest player in league atm? He’s seems to be the easiest to dislike.
Former Socceroos coach Pim Verbeek says Australia have no chance against his native Holland. Fell even more confident of an Australian victory now. 😀