Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll shows Labor down a point on two-party preferred for the second poll in a row, and a narrowing of Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll results, related through Twitter by Stephen Murray, have the Labor two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one), 10% for the Greens (down two) and 17% for others (up two). Bill Shorten maintains a lead as preferred prime minister but it has narrowed considerably after a post-budget blowout, down from 45-35 last time to 40-37. Personal ratings for both leaders are down, with Abbott off three points on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 61%, while Shorten is down four to 34% and up two to 45%. UPDATE: Full tables from The Australian.

Today also brought a new set of results from Morgan’s multi-mode series, with separate numbers provided for each of the last two weekends’ polling rather than the combined fortnightly result that has been the recent norm. This decision was evidently made to emphasise a disparity between the two, with the earlier result being considerably the worse for the Coalition. For the weekend of June 7/8, Labor’s primary vote lead blew out to 42% (up four on the previous fortnightly poll to 33% (down two points), with the Greens up one to 12% and Palmer United down three to 4.5%. This panned out to huge Labor leads of 60.5-39.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 59-41 on 2013 election preference flows. For the weekend just past, Labor’s primary vote lead was down to 38% to 36.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United up a point to 5.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor’s leads were 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election.

Morgan also conducted a phone poll of 637 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week which showed an effective disappearance for the net majority in support of repeal of the carbon tax, for which support was down two points since the previous such poll in February to 47%, and opposition up five to 46%. The poll also found 88% believing Australia should reduce carbon dioxide emissions versus only 10% opposed, while a question on global warming had 29% nominating that concerns were exaggerated, 49% selecting “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, and 16% opting for “it is already too late”.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor (up one), 39% for the Coalition (up two), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 5% for Palmer United (down one). Also featured are semi-regular questions on international relations, climate change and same-sex marriage. The “very important” rating for a close relationship with New Zealand is for some reason up seven points since November to 61%, and that for China is for some reason down eight points to 46%; trust in the Abbott government to handle international relations is down six points to 35%, and distrust is up six to 59%; and 45% are confident that Tony Abbott will do a good job representing Australia overseas versus 50% not confident, which contrasts with the 74% and 18% recorded for Kevin Rudd in October 2009. Belief that climate change is related to human activity is at 53%, down three on the April result, while non-belief is at 35%, up one; and in a result closely reflecting Morgan’s, 38% agree with Tony Abbott’s assertion that Australia and Canada should “take the lead” in opposing carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes versus 39% who disagree. Support for same-sex marriage maintains an upward trajectory evident since the series began in late 2010, with 60% in favour (up three on October last year) and 28% opposed (down three).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 8:04 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    They are trying to knock out the whole Asada investigation on the basis that the joint investigation with AFL was illegal. They believe they have an excellent chance of achieving thus.

    In my view, James Hird should have been sacked from the get go]

    My view is that it was more just to give him a fully-paid year long holiday in France with study assistance, etc, etc, etc.

    Fair is fair.

  2. [Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

    asylum seeker kettling

    ?]

    That means that (a) it is not the Greens fault because nothing ever is, and (b) wrongly hinting that the Greens might have a teensy weensy sort of distant hand in anything bad is seeker kettling.

  3. KB
    I all my tribulations with statistics I never came across ‘smelly’. Could we be talking a false sense of two standard deviations?

  4. I thought BW took a dim view of the Dutch (and therefore the Oranje) given their colonial role in Indonesia, where he was born.

  5. Thanks potori for the background.

    Fran Barlow does not use such loaded words accidentally, so I thought it best to clarify what she was implying.

  6. [Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    I thought BW took a dim view of the Dutch (and therefore the Oranje) given their colonial role in Indonesia, where he was born.]

    I take a dim view of colonialism. But that essentially finished, for the Dutch, in 1950.

    No, I was merely noting that somewhere, sometime, something in me has changed and I am barracking for Australia.

  7. [Darren Laver
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

    I don’t understand — I have heard of kettling chips, but not people.]

    You don’t understand because you are not a Greens. When you do understand, you will realize that you have been wRONg all along.

  8. Unless I’m mistaken, the classic “kettle” described the encirclement of the German Army at Stalingrad and then its total destruction by the Red Army. Whatever the situation is actually like on Manus Island, it is not such a kettle.

    With his army trapped inside a ring of Soviet armor, Paulus informed Hitler that he only had 6 days of food for his troops. Similar shortages of fuel, ammunition, clothing and all other materiel needed to sustain an army in the field were now building to a crisis. Morale remained fairly high among the Germans, and they nick-named their position “Der Kessel” – The Kettle. What the world would soon know as “The Stalingrad Cauldron” was no laughing matter. One of the finest armies in history was about to die from starvation, disease and exposure.

    http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/wwii/stalingrad/kessel.aspx

  9. Powell is a symptomatic of current Lib think.

    His task – to front UNESCO with the proposal we the LNP want to take a huge dump on the reef & I’m here to tell you all there will be no environmental effect. Obfuscation, twisted data & unsupportable scientific data included.

    Powell is wrong, he knows he’s wrong, he possibly hates himself for what he has to do but will still try & push through.

    Somewhere inside every LNP minister is the same twisted believe that they, despite all the evidence are right.

  10. Boerwar@1055

    KB
    I all my tribulations with statistics I never came across ‘smelly’. Could we be talking a false sense of two standard deviations?

    Yes on my calculations there’s a slightly more than 50% chance that the thing’s a rogue, even after:

    (i) accounting for Morgan house effect
    (ii) increasing estimate of Morgan house effect because of this poll; and
    (iii) allowing this poll to influence the estimate of trend

    (all of which I think are completely proper.)

    And if it’s not a rogue, it’s very probably close to one.

    “Smelly” is transplanted from chess – I’ve noticed quite a few grandmaster commentators refer to a bad position as smelly. I think it works quite well for suspect polls, though the “fishy”-derived lingo is also perfectly adequate.

  11. 1067
    zoidlord

    The IPA have argued – at the behest of Murdoch – that tobacco advertising and promotion should be permitted here in the same way as it is in the US. Murdoch’s business would be a direct beneficiary of spending on advertising. He is quite prepared to put his financial interests ahead of the lives of the public. He is an utter disgrace.

    Next time Labor is in power they should legislate the break-up of his media monopolies.

  12. @Briefly/1070

    Labor tried to do that – Media Laws, but was chastised for it.

    Despite hacking trials in the UK, which allowed this power in the first place.

  13. Briefly…1064
    ____________
    A remarkable account in your post of the winter seige of the Nazi Army by the Red Army at Stalingard,,,reminds me that
    General Montgomery (UK) once said that there were three basic rules for waging war
    I…Don’t march on Moscow
    2…Don’t engage in a land war in Eurasia
    3…Don’t march on Moscow

  14. 1071
    zoidlord

    Labor made a doomed attempt to regulate content. Far better to attack Murdoch’s domination of the market and then put him right out of business.

  15. [deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    Briefly…1064
    ____________
    A remarkable account in your post of the winter seige of the Nazi Army by the Red Army at Stalingard,,,reminds me that
    General Montgomery (UK) once said that there were three basic rules for waging war
    I…Don’t march on Moscow
    2…Don’t engage in a land war in Eurasia
    3…Don’t march on Moscow]

    To which everyone rejoined:

    4…Don’t believe everything Monty says.

  16. Well, winners are grinners.

    Genghis engaged in a land war in Eurasia and no-one reckons he did a bad job of it.

    Then the Russians reversed it by going all the way to Alaska, so engaging in a Eurasian war did not really hurt the Russians, second time around.

  17. [briefly
    Posted Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    1074
    Boerwar

    professional jealousy…]

    Nah. Personally, I rate him as competent but that is about it.

    But I might be prejudiced. The Dutch were the big losers out of Monty’s foolish a bridge too far project.

  18. Fran

    Today I joined the 56 yo group just as you did a couple of weeks ago.

    Does this mean I’m likely to feel an urge to vote for the conservatives? I don’t think so!

    The day started early with me headed north for Sydney A/P – collected from there were an academic who knows about French Submarines, a London Golden Mile senior associate lawyer and a Pommie combination Architect/farmer (his family is interesting as they are mentioned as landowners in the Doomsday Book – no royal honours ever accepted).

    Very ready to sleep.

  19. Boy if NSW invested as much energy in the game as they do sooking and whinging about imaginary penalties they’d be ahead 50:4. They are as big a sooks as the Scott brothers or Eddie and Collingwood.

  20. Briefly 1075
    ______________
    On his deathbed(literally) it’s said that Bismark was asked by his son would the European Alliances help keep the peace.

    He said that they wouldn’t and they would all end in a disasterous war” all due to some damn fool thing in the Balkans”
    amazing prediction made a generation before 1914

  21. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genghis_Khan

    [Beyond his military accomplishments, Genghis Khan also advanced the Mongol Empire in other ways. He decreed the adoption of the Uyghur script as the Mongol Empire’s writing system. He also practiced meritocracy and encouraged religious tolerance in the Mongol Empire while unifying the nomadic tribes of northeast Asia. Present-day Mongolians regard him as the founding father of Mongolia.

    Vilified throughout most of history for the brutality of his campaigns, Genghis Khan is also credited with bringing the Silk Road under one cohesive political environment. This increased communication and trade from Northeast Asia to Muslim Southwest Asia and Christian Europe, thus expanding the horizons of all three cultural areas.]

    Then there was Timur…

    [Timur envisioned the restoration of the Mongol Empire of Genghis Khan. As a means of legitimating his conquests, Timur relied on Islamic symbols and language, referring to himself as the Sword of Islam and patronizing educational and religious institutions. He converted nearly all the Borjigin leaders to Islam during his lifetime. His armies were inclusively multi-ethnic. During his lifetime, Timur emerged as the most powerful ruler in the Muslim world after defeating the Mamluks of Egypt and Syria, the emerging Ottoman Empire and the declining Sultanate of Delhi. Timur also decisively defeated the Christian Knights Hospitaller at Smyrna, styling himself a Ghazi. By the end of his reign, Timur had also gained complete control over all the remnants of the Chagatai Khanate, Ilkhanate, Golden Horde and even attempted to restore the Yuan dynasty.

    Timur’s armies were feared throughout Asia, Africa, and Europe, sizable parts of which were laid waste by his campaigns. Scholars estimate that his military campaigns caused the deaths of 17 million people, amounting to about 5% of the world population, leading to a predominantly barbaric legacy.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timur

    Compared with these two, the neo-cons are but infants.

  22. Mod Lib

    In SA, you only need one doctor to “section” a person. Within 24 hours, the detention has to be confirmed by a psychiatrist or discharged.

    When I worked in Emergency, detaining a patient was about the only way I could get someone admitted as they were forced to admit them then.

  23. [Les Bleus du Nouvelles Galles de Sud sont dans la merde…]

    Mon dieu ! Where is Fran when you need her!

    les Bleus de la Nouvelle-Galles du Sud…

    Or I would accept “… de Nouvelle-Galles du Sud…”

  24. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 39s

    #ReachTEL Poll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 36.6 (-0.4) ALP 32.1 (-0.5) PUP 14.1 (+1.8) #qldpol #auspol

  25. [#ReachTEL Poll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 36.6 (-0.4) ALP 32.1 (-0.5) PUP 14.1 (+1.8) #qldpol #auspol]

    Reachtel produces silly polling at times — why stop at one decimal place?

    Surely this is a record low in terms of major party primaries? Did this occur during the One Nation years in Qld??

  26. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 51s

    #qldpol Last night’s ReachTEL poll includes undecided voters as a specific category. Once they’re removed (the format you’re all used to)…

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 37s

    #qldpol ….the results come in as LNP 39.1, ALP 34.3, Greens 4.6, KAPn 4.3, Others 2.6, PUP 15.1

  27. In what other sport can you tip someone over and dump them on their heads, possibly paralysing them, and still not get sent off?

  28. So
    LNP = 39.1 + (0.2*4.6=0.9) + (0.6*22=13.2) =53.2

    Although I am not sure what the “others” distribution should be when most of it is PUP

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