BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,198 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Guytaur

    Collingwood supporter? I will report you to the moderator!


    Apparently nichollls mentioned two past presidents in his speech as being responsible for the clubs poor image.

    not by name, but it is thought he meant the late George Harris and John Elliott, who was at the dinner.

    I have to admit my view of Carlton is coloured by the Elliott presidency. Words fail me when it comes to him.

  2. pollbludger/2014/06/12/bludgertrack-53-7-46-3-to-labor/?comment_page=35/#comment-2002232”>1747

    Yes it is De- Anne Kelly. Like you I took notice that she is an engineer in parliament and a female to boot. The only other engineer I am aware of is the former Labor Minister for Education Peter Baldwin who was an electrical engineer and also I think Greg Combet had an engineering background.
    There are very very few in parliament with any science qualifications – and it shows.

    Michael Lee was an electrical engineer before entering Parliament. According to Wikipedia:

    After graduating in electrical engineering from the University of New South Wales, Lee was employed as an engineer at the Munmorah Power Station and Vales Point Power Station on the Central Coast of New South Wales. He was subsequently elected as a Labor member of the Australian House of Representatives for the seat of Dobell, at the 1984 election, serving until being defeated at the 2001 election by Liberal candidate Ken Ticehurst.

  3. bemused Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 5:00 pm @ 1977

    The most notable of all was their confusion with metrics which caused a Mars probe to bump rather harder into Mars than intended. They mixed miles with kilometers.

    Almost. They mixed pounds-seconds with newton-seconds. From Wikipedia:

    However, on September 23, 1999, communication with the spacecraft was lost as the spacecraft went into orbital insertion, due to ground-based computer software which produced output in non-SI units of pound-seconds (lbf×s) instead of the metric units of newton-seconds (N×s) specified in the contract between NASA and Lockheed.

  4. rossmcg

    Agree re John Eillott. As i said earlier, the club has wealthy benefactors, such as Mathieson of Pokies and Hotels fame. The Pratt family. Also the Deliuttis family involved in big business, just to name a few
    Also as mentioned, the players are not at all arrogant. Even Mick Malthouse has noted that it is the quietest football team he has ever coached. I would dearly love for them to develop some grunt and arrogance

  5. Abbott is vilified here as an ignorant nong.

    I read in the papers that he has done brilliantly overseas.

    Someone must be wrong.

  6. Victoria

    The quality of the current Carlton team can be directly related to the arrogance that saw them kicked out of a few drafts for serial salary cap cheating. And that can be traced directly to the Elliott era.

    I am sure the you are not a typical blues fan, you are a Poll Bludger after all, but a few I have met have been right pains in the bum.

  7. [Toorak Toff
    Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    Abbott is vilified here as an ignorant nong.]

    I don’t think that that is exactly right.

  8. Lady Van Badham ‏@vanbadham 38s

    Remember those Bush-era signs that said “a village in Texas is missing its idiot”? Someone found them. Sigh. #auspol

  9. rossmcg

    In my experience, there are crappy supporters in every club. My household is dominated by Hawthorn supporters and they are my second favourite team. In times gone by, I have generally found these supporters to be reasonable, but lately ratbags are infiltrating this club as well

  10. It’s been 20 years since Carlton won a premiership.

    Something has to change, whether it be the getting of more mongrel amongst the players, more strategic draft picks (for what those are worth now) or whatever.

  11. I find the stuff in here about the AFL amusing to say the least,they run a crooked competition,where the draw is altered to suit whatever team the AFL is pumping money into.
    The Competition is fiddled with so the team the AFL needs for ratings gets the best players, while other teams suffer,who is next,Gold Coast they seem to be flavor of the month ATM, Brisbane must be due for another brought flag the AFL brought the 3 they won.
    Meanwhile the AFL have decreed that Sydney must win the next flag to add to the others the AFL brought bent rules and interfered in,problem they have is as happened before this last fiddle is GWS is going nowhere not now not in 10 yrs.
    As soon as Sydney start losing the crowds depart,GWS never had a crowd in Sydney apart from the invented ones they made up,and Brisbane is going backwards what will they do,going to be a bad time for Victorian AFL supporters

  12. rossmcg:

    I’m surrounded at work by Dockers fans. They are the worst IMO because they outwardly live and breathe the emotional roller coaster that has been their team the last few years.

    Every week in season the saga goes on, reaching a crescendo on a Friday of barely contained emotion at the prospect of how Freo will fare at the weekend.

    Give me a toothless, mullet-wielding, semi-literate Collingwood fan any day of the week.

  13. Actually pretty much every sport is crooked, Gaming Industry is no different, big huge scandal hit E-Sports a few years ago nearly killed E-Sports.

  14. Sydney Swans are looking like the hottest team this year, money well spent on Buddy and Tippo. Only problem is it’s getting a bit squeezy in the Members 🙂

  15. Fess

    Ha ha, the poor old dockers fans.

    I knew somebody once who did part time work in the boxes at Subi. She much preferred working at Freo games cos all the punters wanted from the start of the game was cold beers. And if it was a close game they hardly drank at all and watched the footy. If it was crap, as it often was in those days they just wanted more beer.

    West coast fan s wanted Chardonnay and prawns and every now and they they would interrupt their business deal and ask what was the score.

  16. Someone must be wrong.

    It’s not us it’s the papers, mainly the Murdoch ones. Fairfax seems to be reasonably balanced.

  17. Been to beach and hot springs here on Milos, thought I would have a look at PB and see what PBers thought of Insiders. Made a mistake on pages and found ML/ET back again. Enough for me, came to end pages Can anyone tell me briefly how was insiders today please

  18. I like the alleged Spanish practice of Football clubs and supporters offering “Maletines” (suitcases stuffed with cash) to other clubs to either win or lose a game against a particular opponent. This apparently happens towards the end of a season, especially from clubs that are threatened with relegation. Some of the poorer clubs apparently offer Maletines that are made up of food rather than cash. Here is one alleged example

    This week, Deportivo fans unfurled a banner at training that accused Real Zaragoza of saving themselves “year after year” with a maletin.

    And in a move described as “third-party mussels” by Marca, a Celta supporters’ group is offering a kilo of shellfish to Espanyol and Athletic players if they can do Los Celestes a favour in their games against Deportivo and Zaragoza this weekend.

  19. Toorak Toff@2113

    Abbott is vilified here as an ignorant nong.

    I read in the papers that he has done brilliantly overseas.

    Someone must be wrong.

    Yes, you read the wrong papers. And you must miss the cartoonists.

  20. [Sportsbet are offering 5/1 on Abbott still being PM in 2020.]

    Forget 2020, which is two elections away. What are they offering for 2016?

  21. So Alan Jones is on the same page as me on two issues. CSG and Medical Cannabis.

    I think that may mean Tony Abbott is to the right of Alan Jones.

  22. [Surprisingly there aren’t many WCE fans at work. They’re mostly all Dockers people]

    WCE fans have been very quiet the last couple of years.

  23. WWP

    You are lucky. There enough around to bother me. They live in a parallel universe. When you point out that they have been struggling lately, because this is WA they assume you are a Freo supporter and sneer: and how many premierships has your team won?

    I lie and tell em I barrack for Geelong!

  24. [WWP

    You are lucky. There enough around to bother me. They live in a parallel universe. When you point out that they have been struggling lately, because this is WA they assume you are a Freo supporter and sneer: and how many premierships has your team won?

    I lie and tell em I barrack for Geelong!]

    I perhaps should have said WE have been very quiet the last couple of years, and yes I’m pretty sure Geelong helped us with one or two of our premierships. Thanks.

    About the only time and place in the world barracking for the Dockers is a compliment is in WA to someone stupid enough to admit supporting a team from that other world across the Nullarbor ocean.

  25. Oh and at work the Dockers fans I know are being relatively gracious and normal, like that big chip on their shoulder is almost gone after 1 1/2 seasons doing quite well under that Ross fellow.

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