BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

The weekly BludgerTrack poll trend continues a trend of mild recovery for the Coalition following the post-budget slump, although Bill Shorten remains well ahead as preferred prime minister.

Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.

Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.

Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.

The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.

The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,198 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

  1. guytaur

    First of all, we were talking about Iraq.

    Second, what am I supposed to take away from that? That the parties of god are intent on torturing and/or killing people for voting or facilitating the vote (or anyone in the general vicinity)? This is not news to me.

  2. Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 10m

    .@BernardKeane @larissawaters Bernard that tweet is actionable. i ask you to take it down immediately


  3. Surely Sam Maiden must have been embarrassed by the crap she put in her column today? “Sandwichgate” for fecks sake.

    Of all the great political issues this is her effort for her only column in a week. Things are getting very sad in Murdochville. The horrible public service training attendees are getting $275 a day in food and drink between the lot of them.

    How does this compare with a Qld pollie Ms Maiden? Oh thats right.

    [QUEENSLAND MPs will be able to claim an extra $105 a day to cover the cost of meals while at State Parliament.]

    Note the extra, and its each.

    [Instead of $305 a day when visiting capital cities in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, MPs will now receive a payment of $315 to cover food and other expenses.]

    Did you notice this is more than the entire Public Service for just one politician.


  4. Damn the Pies. I was headed for 8 correct so far and they’ve blighted my perfect tipping this round. 🙁

  5. [ CTar1

    Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

    badcat – Mickey Martin I know of.


    In the 1995 movie ‘The Dambusters’ Micky Martin is portrayed by veteran South African/Aussie actor Bill Kerr …. who leaves a little koala with his belongings – in case he did not return …. he went on to fly 49 bomber missions another 34 on Mosquitos ….

  6. Yesiree Bob

    james Hird has commenced his own proceedings in the Federal court. Apparently he said it was because he has the interests of the players at heart. Pigs arse i say

  7. [Global average sea surface temperatures rose rapidly from the 1970s but have been relatively flat for the past 15 years. This has prompted speculation from some quarters that global warming has stalled.

    Now, Stephen Briggs from the European Space Agency’s Directorate of Earth Observation says that sea surface temperature data is the worst indicator of global climate that can be used, describing it as “lousy”.

    “It is like looking at the last hair on the tail of a dog and trying to decide what breed it is,” he said on Friday at the Royal Society in London.

    Climate scientists have been arguing for some time that the lack of warming of the sea surface is due to most of the extra heat being taken up by the deep ocean. A better measure, he said, was to look at the average rise in sea levels. The oceans store the vast majority of the climate’s heat energy. Increases in this stored energy translate into sea level rises.

    “The sea level shows us the engine of global climate not one of the consequences,” said Briggs.]

  8. BK

    Both hird and fhe Essendon FC are trying to get the whoke matter tossed out on technical grounds. Knowing how the law can be an ass most of the time, they do have a chance of achieving this goal. The Asada boss said that they are confident that the organisation is on safe legal ground. I hope so

  9. victoria

    Until a judge rules otherwise ASADA is on good legal ground. They got several legal opinions not just one.

  10. ASADA is not taking “legal” action, they are taking action under the world anti-doping laws. The AFL is a signatory to these “laws”.

    If Essendon don’t like it they can join another league.

  11. victoria@2059

    Yesiree Bob

    james Hird has commenced his own proceedings in the Federal court. Apparently he said it was because he has the interests of the players at heart. Pigs arse i say

    Hird should stay in the South of France

  12. ruawake@2067

    ASADA is not taking “legal” action, they are taking action under the world anti-doping laws. The AFL is a signatory to these “laws”.

    If Essendon don’t like it they can join another league.

    apparently, if more than two players have been found to have been doped, the whole club gets banned.
    Good, I say, hope the Bummers fans enjoy the VAFA

  13. ru

    That is the concern with this court action. The Essendon FC want to apply common law to the rules that govern Asada and fhe AFL. Such a precedent would destroy the integrity of both Asada and the AFL. Essendon were already cautioned when the AFL sanctions were being handed down last year. The other 17 teams of the league basically told them either they are part of the league and accept the rules and codes within that framework, or they can f off

  14. Re Ruawake @2054: I posted this on the Daily Telecrap story linked by you:

    Provision of lunch and morning and afternoon teas for employees on training courses is standard practice, especially when training is away from the workplace. This article is nothing more than a beat-up to foster dislike and contempt of public servants as part of this newspaper’s general boosting and running interference for the Abbott Government. Don’t you have some real news to print?

    I don’t think they’ll publish it.

  15. High Court delivers two judgments on refugees this week:

    (a) s156 re Manus Island on Wednesday;
    (b) s297 re protective visas on Friday.

  16. A QLD ReachTEL poll is around, anyone see it on the TV? Don’t know if there were any actual polling results released yet, or if they did those questions.
    What are Queenslanders cutting back on to balance their budget?
    Will you be better or worse off as a result of the State Budget?

    The last full poll was released 8 June

  17. Just a refresh on the Finish Education system:

    “Since they instigated wide-ranging reforms 40 years ago, children are not sorted into sets, nor do they spend their evenings in intensive cramming sessions – there is no private tuition industry, and charging school fees is illegal. Everyone is educated in their local comprehensive. Homework, even for a 15-year-old, is limited to 30 minutes.”

    “Compulsory schooling begins at the age of seven, with only a broadly-outlined national curriculum, and students wear their own clothes and call the teachers by their first names.”

  18. @Leroy/2084

    7News Brisbane ‏@7NewsBrisbane 13m

    What are Queenslanders cutting back on to balance their budget? #qldpol #7newsQ

    7News Brisbane ‏@7NewsBrisbane 12m

    Will you be better or worse off as a result of the State Budget? #qldpol #7newsQ

  19. CTar1

    I would not think that would be that unusual.

    Everything else in the last few days in Qld has been out of the park.

  20. Steve777

    If they do publish, it will be days after the story has not links to it. Its sad isn’t it Maiden gets to write one column a week.

    She plucks a non issue from estimates then collects her pay check.

  21. Victoria

    Sorry, but even the greats think Carlton has a problem

    “Honoured as the No.1 player in Carlton’s history on Saturday night, the legendary John Nicholls says it’s time for the Blues to shed their arrogant image, which he believes has tarnished the club for decades”

  22. Victoria

    And there is more

    “But I must say, if I have one regret about the image of Carlton, who I love, it is the fact that we have probably taken over from Collingwood as being the most hated side in the league.”

  23. Only a club like Carlton could name it’s wizz-bang new Stand after a non-playing president with dubious business credentials
    “The Jack Elliot Stand”

  24. rossmcg

    Carlton have wealthy benefactors which do give it an air of arrogance, but i can say emphatically that there are not enough arrogant players currently playing for Carlton. They are probably the most polite players in the league, and that in itself is the problem. We need a team with more grunt and arrogance

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