A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.
The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.
Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.
1359
Cutting the private health rebate instead of abolishing it would reduce the political pain but also the reduction in inequity and also the savings.
What is needed in super is a lot more complicated than just cutting the concessions in half. For those in the top tax bracket cutting the tax concession back by half* to 15% is what is needed. The discount for the next tax bracket down should be cut to 15% percent as well. The 30% tax bracket can be left alone as it already at the 15% discount. The previous government`s low income super contributions rebate should be kept for the bottom 2 tax brackets and extended to contributions as well. That would make the biggest difference to retirement incomes.
*Not counting the Medicare or deficit levies.
Adrian 1355 Thanks for your compliments I am glad you enjoy my posts
kezza2
[I won’t be silenced.]
Good to hear.
If you haven’t come across them, International Women’s Development Agency is an organisation worthy of support: http://www.iwda.org.au/
One thing with Turnbull as he showed with the Ute-gate affair, he has an extremely thick skin, and will do everything possible to win. There are no lows too low for him in gaming for power, if a space occurs.
Now Abbott’s abysmal performance at PM, horror budget, disaster on foreign affairs, perpetual lying….has most certainly created a ray of light for Turnbull and other hopefuls.
Turnbull sees this and the Lib commentariate guard see it too and are out early to neuter Turnbull. Same game..different side. Turnbull is not ‘of them’, he isn’t the true far right Lib and is a risk to the loonies control of the party.
You know this is the case when you see the lowest life forms in the MSM come out to attack him. Bolt and Jones coming out to support Abbott/Libs from the non secret handshake Lib, Turnbull. Means they know the risks are very real…and that Turnbull could in time gather enough supporters interested in retaining their political careers come the next election. More things change…more they stay the same.
J3
Abbott will be forced out. He is a drag on the LNP popularity not a plus.
As these dire polls for the LNP continue these rumbles on leadership will gain real momentum.
The second budget could well be by Turnbull as PM with a new Treasurer.
Already we see what you normally only see in the last term of a government. Abbott’s state colleagues do not want him on the campaign trail
1405
Labor was poll driven. We’ll see soon if the libs are a copycat.
There’s a difference between being chased out a la Gillard (which actually made me respect her more) and being tapped and going with an arranged succession in place …
Re Abbott…let’s hope he remains in power for the time being
____________
Tom Paine rightly makes the point that Abbott is a bonus for the LOTO and all of us who loathe him and his Govt
I suspect Turnbull would regain some lost votes for them…so I hope he is on the outer …but able to be a nuisance for Abbott/Bolt/Jones and that scurvy crew
HERe IN VIC ABBOTT’S POOR SHOWING WILL HELP TO SEAL THE COFFIN OF NAPTHINES GOVT WHICH WAS IN DEEP TROUBLE,BUT IS NOW IN MY VIEW. GONE FOR ALL MONEY
NEXT TUESDAY WILL SEE SHAW TOSSED OUT AND THE BY-ELECTION WILL BE ANOTHER STAGE IN THE DISASTER
silmaj
If the LNP are not poll driven they will lose the next election.
[1380
kezza2
briefly @ 1354
Thanks for your reply.
Sexual abuse of children, within families, and by family friends, has to stop.
Men, and women, and children, have to speak up about it.]
k2, you, among us all, have every right to speak out. Fwiw, it’s quite clear that sexual violence is no longer a taboo subject. It’s public property now. We can thank the Royal Commission and PMJG in part. The silence has been broken. Domestic violence is no longer seen as an entirely private matter either. Though there’s a long way to go – still a very long way – I reckon there will be no retreat either. It’s possible to see courage everywhere too, and to be carried along by that. It feels better than anger and remorse…makes better company, perhaps.
[US Finally Recovers All Jobs Lost Since 2007 While People Not In Labor Force Increase By 12.8 Million]
@ Zerohedge
Got to love the US economic recovery, according to their ‘official statistics’, which seem to be of the same nature of China’s official statistics. Fortunately other people are producing the real statistics outside of govts.
bemused
[Even when Henderson puts them in the ‘left’ camp and the PB hive mind has them firmly on the ‘right’???
Beats me how you reconcile those opposites.]
I wasn’t really all that serious, but …
People conflate a lot of things, Left and Right with Labor and Liberal, for example.
Labor and PMJG in particular will be remembered by history as the ones that finally got a light shone on child abuse.
Something I admire them for immensely. They could have done as expected and ignore Peter Fox.
1409
Being poll driven will never work. Doing something that over time turns the polls is another matter. You must be referring to the success of the previous govt in turning bad polls to changing decisions and electoral success. I’m not sure where the electoral success was though.
1401
Tom the first and best
Super has to be one of the most tedious subjects, so I’ve never really studied it. But from the little I know, I think you’re right, T.
Pegasus
You know what?
If I could personally thank Julia Gillard for one thing, it would be for this:
The Royal Commission into Institutional Sexual Abuse of Children.
It allowed me once and for all to stop dilly-dallying and to start getting on with unleashing my voice about familial/friends sexual abuse.
The occurrence of this sort of abuse far and away outweighs the extent of any institutional abuse. It’s endemic.
And it needs to be exposed, and stopped. And this RC has given us a vehicle to speak about it, and to educate families. A small step.
Thanks for the link.
Political party members are poll driven…especially if they are in seats that can be lost. Those in safe seats of course are not poll driven, they are power play driven….and will as we have seen, drive their party into a wall rather than lose that game.
The trick is to scare the horses enough that they ignore the Powers and put on the Turnbull parachute.
Lets hope that they stayed scared long enough that they don’t have the guts to jump to Turnbull.
Any other leader for the libs except Turnbull should lead them to a loss I believe.
But Labor shouldn’t assume the luxury of stupid Abbott being in the chair for a long time and should take every opportunity to score points against the govt whilst the sun shines.
Deb
Even though this is not what is intended i think that removing the word “occupied” from Palestine may be a good thing long term. I think it is now well past the time when a twop state solution is a possibility so i favour a unitary state with FULL citizenship of all the Palestinians. Democratically elected government etc.
Israel cannot have it both ways – either it is an occupying power OR Palestine is part of Israel, along with all its residents.
silmaj
Gillard was not poll driven in the way you put. Even Rudd can claim that with initiating the mining tax.
All politicians are poll driven.
None want to see polls like Abbott is seeing now. A few more so bad and there will be no turning them around for Abbott.
okay
for the first time in a long time I have actually had a hearty laugh all the way through a Mike Carlton column.
He does indeed have a splendid turn of funny-bone phrase.
Night all.
Reading some of the posts tonight I went out side to see if there was a full moon, there wasn’t so I guess some of them had just a little to much of their favorite tipple.
I will not move on as far as this budget is concerned. I love my country and it’s people too much for that.
Clive Palmer is not a friend but he is the enemy (at the moment) of my enemy.
Loved Mike Carlton.
Kezza
Abuse od children seems to be more than just sexual. That apalling strory from Ireland just makes me want to cry. How can 800 children die without anyone knowing or caring.
WarrenPeace
Labor has not moved on from the budget. Neither have the Greens or PUP.
Much as they want to neither has the LNP. At the moment the budget is only a piece of paper. Until the senate passes it thats how it remains.
Lots more budget to come 🙂
1419
Poll driven is supposedly to do with what is reported and listened to from our beloved media. Our media don’t report just truth, they report their interpretation and cut and paste to suit a headline. If you think that putting policy to a poll that is acted on by this is a good thing well so be it. However some have realized a while back that the media is no longer news but entertainment.
Steve777@1378
Pretty much what I think.
Trioli had her finest moment when she nailed Reith over the Children Overboard lie. But at times she acts like an air-head.
Kelly, judging by her lifestyle, would not line up with the social conservatives in the Libs and I have seen nothing to pin her as an economic dry. I think, like all who try to play with a straight bat, she may occasionally over compensate.
silmaj
I was talking polls. Not media reports of polls.
See bludgertrack for the harsh realty for the LNP
1426
So polls don’t get influenced by media?
daretotread @ 1422
[How can 800 children die without anyone knowing or caring.]
Absolutely easily.
They had the misfortune to be born part of “homo abuses genocidus”, which calls itself “homo sapiens sapiens”.
I suppose it’s why I am a misanthrope.
dtt
Yes, abuse takes many forms.
Apparently a lot of those kids died of curable diseases – diseases brought about by poverty.
Did you read the link somebody (?) posted earlier about the intro of the NHS in England? One assumes its advent would have been much later in Ireland.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/04/coalition-attacks-nhs-return-britain-age-workhouse?commentpage=8
I’m not excusing what happened, I think the nuns were a contemptuous lot. I think the mores of the day were also contemptible.
I can’t even begin to imagine the first death and the decision to just dispose of the body in a cesspit. Unbelievable.
I cry with you.
[the NHS in England? One assumes its advent would have been much later in Ireland.]
The NHS was introduced in 1948. Ireland was independent well before
silmaj
Not when you have the Murdochracy talking up the government.
The issues are influencing the polls more.
deblonay@1398
Well I certainly agree.
I disagree with a lot of what Fran writes but thoroughly enjoy her presence.
And I regard you, deblonay, a self confessed old codger, as something of a PB elder to be cherished for the perspectives you bring. Pity you are a Green.
Goodnight
1431
You are talking papers and of course bring the one up that doesn’t confirm with you political views. My observation is that I can listen to live parliament on ABC during the day and get home to here it differently on the news TV. I’m sure by the time it’s got to a news paper it’s different again. The new media well it’s pretty obvious .
Bmused my family says I am what is called a Water Melon Green”…green on the outside but red inside
So Newman’s going after palmer, somebody is going after turn all and Abbott is offending the yanks on climate change? How long will this inept government last?
I think there will be changes before Xmas. I hope I’m right because if change doesn’t happen soon we could be in a lot of trouble…
Perhaps our American friends will….ahem…nudge things along a little..
[You seem unable to cope with views that that don’t mirror your rather fatuous opinions ]
Nope, got f*ck all to do with views I don’t agree with. If it was I would’ve said. In fact I’m probably the only PBer who can happily ignore or scroll past shit I disagree with.
You know exactly what I was referring to.
deblonay@1435
My wife calls me a ‘leftist activist’ and then proceeds to get more fired up than I do when Abbott or his henchmen appear on TV. 😆
I would loved to see some informed and insightful comment on whether or not the current polls actually mean anything. Whether enough minds have been changed, or whether the sheeple will simply forget.
Is Abbott offending the yanks now? I really can’t keep up!
So is Abbott to the (stage) right of Putin?
Re the Horror story from Ireland and the 800 dead babies
_______________________
In a way it mirrors the recent Judy Dench film…”Philomena”…but this story is terrible…being a story of so many small kids and babies dying of hunger/neglect and disease…while in the “care ” of the Catholic Church
On top of the terrible stories of sexual abuse of kids in Ireland,this story may help to finally break the power of the Church in that country where it has for so long ruled peoples lives,over and above Govts
It seems to me that where religion occupies a dominant role in any society there is always human suffering and presecution in it’s name…In Isreal/Iran/Ireland wherevere
Even here in Oz…where a huge majority favours euthenasia,but the politicians are too scared of the churches and their Ayatollahs.. and .won’t give people what they want
I don’t know what brought it to my mind but back in the 70’s when I was living in Pott’s Point, and working in the city, I was waiting for a bus there where about 20 people in front of me, not sure if the next bus went Watsons Bay or Rose Bay.
A older woman covered in furs came up and went straight to the front of the queue, (born to rule I suppose.) she walked off in a huff.
Around the same time I saw Sonia McMahon shopping in Myers on the corner of George and Market Streets, She had her Chauffeur was carrying parcels piled so high he could hardly see over the top, Sonia just kept browsing, just common folk.
I don’t think budget anger has peaked…I think everybody is waiting to see what will happen….some have placed their faith in the senate..and I think many are in denial….anger may simmer for a while, but once these changes start hitting the hip pocket, the anger will boil over
Bemused////I have been most pleased at the bizarre appearnaces on TV and Radio this week of Kennett in Abbot’s defence
My wife says she can’t even watch him…but he has a certainly manic quality these days which I find amusing ,and he seems rather desperate…. which I like to see
1444
So when will the anger peak?
deblonay@1445
Yes, Kennett has a severe case of relevance deprivation. I think it is severe enough for him to be hospitalised in a secure ward.
Oh, another thing, don’t get bothered by confessions, she is not worth it and is almost invariably wRONg anyway.
Goodnight all!
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor 1m
Getting the picture as to why Mr Abbott was not up to the job in 2010 .Three years on and still unaware of what the job is-embarrassing
Laurie Oakes article linked on here re Abbott not meeting legarde and others, plus leaving climate change off g20 agenda suggests some disturbance in US circles…
[ Perhaps our American friends will….ahem…nudge things along a little.. ]
We can live in hope. 🙁
Will be interesting to see the spin that gets put on the Obama / Abbott meeting. I suspect there will be a lot of compare and contrast done between Obama’s reaction to Abbott, and his reaction to Gillard which seemed to be genuinely warm and easy-going.
And any of that is going to be in the context of Hilary Clinton being a likely candidate for being the next US President and Gillards ongoing good relation ship with her.
I expect Abbott is going to look like a pin headed denialist git and is going to have to be VERY careful in his language if he finds himself having to defend his position on carbon pollution reduction.