BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor’s post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there’s no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,488 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  2. Cyril

    I’ve always supported Italy but I love a few of the Argentinian players so this year I’m going for them. Serie A has really dropped off as Italy’s economy has died.

  4. 1239
    kezza2

    Perhaps I know how you feel. The air gets sucked out of my lungs at times, from sorrow, from confusion and from fear. I’ve tried to understand it – the whole thing, the brutality and the fear, the pain, the indifference, or perhaps perverse pleasure, the power, the adrenaline and the cries for release. I’ve thought about it. The thing is, I just do not comprehend any of it – the rage or the malice, the revenge or the contempt or whatever it is that grants permission to violence.

    Anguish is not very deeply interred in me. I think of my own so-much-loved daughter and my nieces, my own mother and aunts, my friends and lovers. I think of the ladies serving in the coffee shop and the Post Office. I cannot think of violence without worrying for them and feeling lost.

    I don’t know where it all begins and where it ends. But I believe we’re not all the same.

  6. This World Cup is one time time zones work for those in the eastern states. Being two hours closer to Brazil makes for more friendly wake up times.

  8. There’s a lot of angst and despair from all directions because we live in such perilous times, and our ‘leaders’ are so inept as to be laughable.

    Whatever hope there is, is so fragile and tenuous that despair becomes the norm for so many, hoping for so much more from this privileged and broken country…

    I for one, find Fran and debonlay’s posts usually interesting and worth reading.

  9. Further to my 1321:
    – keep the ‘deficit levy’ running indefinitely
    – quietly keep fuel excise indexation
    – Free up a billion or so per annum by cutting the private health rebate to 20% and putting it to better use
    – finance health and disability support by cutting super tax concessions by 50%. That would still more than compensate superannuants for not drawing the pension.
    – freeze pension age at 67. That would cost nothing now. Future Governments can monitor the situation. At some future time if life expectancy increases to the high 80’s we could look at it again.

  11. Oakes says Abbott has pissed of Obama with his dismissal of climate change reality

    http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/confusion-clouds-tony-abbotts-washington-meetings/story-fni0fha6-1226946285710

    [Now, more information has emerged. The Americans have let it be known that Obama is annoyed because Abbott refuses to allow climate change to be part of the G20 agenda. The PM has argued publicly that discussion of climate change would “clutter” an agenda that should concentrate on economic growth.]

  12. [1327
    confessions

    briefly:

    We are definitely headed into that El Nino year the BoM has been predicting for months now.]

    Yes, though maybe not a “Super” El Nino…I haven’t been looking at the rainfall in QLD and NSW. Hopefully, won’t be too dry.

  14. One of the articles I think BK linked to this morning contains a fascinating list of Gerard Henderson’s perceived ‘enemies’.
    [But more importantly, Henderson has a long history of incessant and obsessive criticism of leading Australian writers, journalists and thinkers with whom he disagrees politically.
    This can be seen at his Media Watch Dog blog, in his numerous newspaper columns and extensive correspondence.
    He is an ideological warrior whose regular targets include David Marr, Peter FitzSimons, Robert Manne, Elizabeth Farrelly, Margaret Simons, Malcolm Fraser, Virginia Trioli, Mungo MacCallum, Waleed Aly, Guy Rundle, Laura Tingle, Jonathan Green, Fran Kelly, Malcolm Farr, Mark Latham, Paul Bongiorno, Phillip Adams, Tim Flannery, Tim Soutphommasane, Nick Dyrenfurth and Hugh White.
    In other words, among Henderson’s political targets are many of Australia’s leading writers, commentators, historians and journalists.]
    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gerard-henderson-politicises-the-prize-20140605-zry3u.html#ixzz33rUjdEyP

    What fascinated me most was the overlap with the PB perceived ‘enemies’, including Virginia Trioli and Fran Kelly.

    So who is right, Gerard Henderson or the PB hive mind?

  16. victoria:

    Abbott once spruiked Frydenburg as having stronger foreign affairs credentials than his current foreign affairs minister.

    Perhaps that sentiment touched something deep in Josh’s psyche.

  19. @silmaj/1312

    Yes, because you had enough of people talking about the budget, so you basically told people to move on.

    The budget has massive impacts of millions of people, there is no reason to “move on”, Poverty exists because of budgets like this damage the economy.

  22. bemused
    [So who is right, Gerard Henderson or the PB hive mind?]
    Perhaps they’re not mutually exclusive ;).

  24. [ Simon Banks Fascinating @albericie @JoshFrydenberg says @TurnbullMalcolm could turn out to be another Billy Hughes so anything’s possible @Lateline ]

    Malcolm could do worse than leave the Libs, take a chunk of (relative) moderates with him, and bargain with Clive and Labor to oust the Abbotteers.

    Should be able to wangle at least treasurer or foreign minister for himself in a new minority government, with better prospects for PM and a whole lot less shit to eat then he will ever get from the mad right dominated Libs.

    Split the loons off, Mal. It is your only chance.

  27. 1369
    I said I’ve moved on and that it’s normal human behavior that some others will too. You have said that I have tried to tell others.

  28. Re Bemused @1364: most on that list lean a bit to the left. Others derided here as Liberal stooges (e.g. Fran Kelly, Virginia Trioli) I see as fairly balanced, trying to do their jobs without pushing any agenda. And it looks like Malcolm Fraser isn’t right wing enough. Of course Malcolm stayed where he was while his erstwhile colleagues stampeded en mass, exit right.

  29. I wonder who in the US government leaked to Oakes. Not surprised at the knowledge of who to leak to as Wikileaks revealed the US is fully aware of who’s who

  30. briefly @ 1354

    Thanks for your reply.

    Sexual abuse of children, within families, and by family friends, has to stop.

    Men, and women, and children, have to speak up about it.

    When I realised no one else was speaking up in our family. I did. I spoke up. I have been ostracised. I have been ridiculed. I have not stopped speaking out about it, though.

    Fortunately, I don’t live in a society where women who ‘shame’ their families are killed for their trouble. I can handle not being spoken to.

    But what I won’t handle is allowing abuse of kids to continue.

    And if that means undermining patriarchy, or women-enabling men, then so be it. I won’t be silenced.

    You know, one of the best things of my childhood was visiting other families where I saw love and affection and friendship. I realised that not all families were the same.

    It was something I wanted.

    And, of course, I realise that not all men, or all women, are the same but there are like you loving, kind and compassionate people in this world.

  34. Aint it wonderful. The Libs don’t want Turnbull leader, yet he is the very person the public want as leader. The Libs prefer their hero Abbott, who is a dull, boring, monotone, repetitive, uncultured, unsophisticated thug, and no doubts is exactly what his faction wants.

    Turnbull is not far enough to the right, is too popular, maybe too hard to control, to intelligent and successful for them, and has a bad temper.

    Whats the bet that getting near an election when it becomes obvious the public will eat their children than vote Abbott, but would support Turnbull…that the Libs still cling to Abbott until the last minute out of desperation…and get beaten because of it.

  35. Detailed article by Rodney Tiffen
    http://inside.org.au/the-abbott-governments-war-on-transparency/
    [Political attention over the past few weeks has been fixed on the drama of the Abbott government’s first budget – the winners and losers, the problem of broken promises, the prospects in the Senate. Beyond that, though, the budget reinforces another trend of potentially great significance for the quality of Australian democracy. Since its beginnings, the government has made a series of decisions that mean public scrutiny of its policies and their implementation is more difficult.]

  37. Bob Carr is shown to be right re the Jews and our policies in the M East
    ___________________

    Bob Carre tonight on ABC lashed the jewish Lobby re the Abbott Govt new policies which will no longer use the term”Occupied Territories”in deference to the Israeli wishes…
    as they wish to occupy most of Palestine and expell the arab people there

    Carr is seeing his words justified in that he said in his book that the Australia foreign polices in the Middle East were being made by the Melbourne’s hard-line Jews…like Liebler,Danby and others

    The Arab/moslem communities are become better organise politically and they may be a great danger to many Lib members in Sydney’s west where they are numerous

    This issue will be a turning point.in showing how biased and wrong our M East policies are ,and are actually made in the interests of another govt
    Some might see that as a kind of treason

  40. Dio

    [Serie A has really dropped off as Italy’s economy has died.]

    And as they keep getting caught match fixing.

  41. DisplayName@1372

    bemused

    So who is right, Gerard Henderson or the PB hive mind?


    Perhaps they’re not mutually exclusive .

    Even when Henderson puts them in the ‘left’ camp and the PB hive mind has them firmly on the ‘right’???

    Beats me how you reconcile those opposites.

  42. [Oakes says Abbott has pissed of Obama with his dismissal of climate change reality]

    One of Abbott’s many skills is his tin ear ignorance ability on foreign affairs, and in dealing with other nations. He has the knack of being naturally condescending and totally without perspective or bigger picture view.

    Would be hilarious if he spoke to Obama/USA the same as he did to Indonesia…because he is ignorant.

  45. My view is still that Abbott is more likely to bow out as long as he gets to choose his replacement… and it’s not Turnbull.

    I just don’t see the Lib leadership permitting an prolonged leadership battle that ends up with them being exactly the same as the ALP.

  48. Confession________
    You seem unable to cope with views that that don’t mirror your rather fatuous opinions Bemused, Fran and I seem to irked you greatly
    and you suggested we be silenced…strange stuff even from you .

    My advice to you is suck it up…we have no plans to bow to your distaste
    I think Bemused and Fran B would agree

  50. I think if it was clear he was in a critical position – Abbott would go rather on his own terms, than risk the Gillard route.

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