BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,869 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 … 35 36 37 38

  1. …hmmm…it’s working again!

    confessions, I have an odd working schedule…quite at the end of summer for 2-3 months and then can be very busy at other times, interleaved with time that I can have to myself…keeps me interested…:)

  4. @Steve777/1752

    He’s total wacko.

    ‘Among the policy agendas of Mr Leyonhjelm is the full privatisation of all school and hospital services, a lower minimum wage and lower tobacco taxes.’

  7. Puffy:

    Babe, if you were trawling for responses I’d wish you a happy birthday, but seeing as you aren’t, then I’ll just wish you happy Saturday night. 😀

  8. Further wacko:

    ‘In his speech, Mr Day questioned why, when Newstart allowance was $250 a week and the minimum wage was $650, people could not choose to work for less than the minimum wage but more than the dole.’

  9. Steve777

    The headline is very deceiving as usual..

    “Mr Leyonhjelm said when it came to smaller government, ”I do not draw the line anywhere”.
    ”I have every intention of using my vote to try and make a difference,” he said. ”I will use argument, reason, pleading and, occasionally, blackmail.”

    The Road Block if it does exist is that LDP &FF won’t support Libs unless they move even further to the RIGHT… well that’s just rubbish. Tony will look like an even bigger goose when he announces he has reached an agreement with them…. Full privatisation of schools, Uni & hospitals FFS

  12. Leyonhjelm elected because the dopey voters of NSW thought they were voting for the Liberal party.

    Day elected because the ALP directed its group ticket preferences to him ahead of X’s running mate.

    Hopefully neither will ever happen again post Senate voting reform.

  14. I can understand the views of someone like Mr Leyonhjelm even if I don’t accept them. He would say it’s about freedom in all spheres of life – let the winners win and the losers I suppose get to serve the winners. Whereas Family First appear to believe in the same economic ‘freedom’ , but want to constrain adults on how to run their private lives – in the marriage and relationships, in the bedroom and in reproduction.

  15. [1756
    confessions

    briefly:

    Well I hope you get some down time and don’t burn the candle too much at both ends.]

    thanks, confessions 🙂

  28. Abbott looked like the proverbial spare dick at a wedding at that AFL mini presser with Goodesy et al.
    Even down to holding the mic for Mickey O’Loughlin.
    What a twit.

  33. It will probably look bad for Abbott, here is some money, while the others scraping for money because of the budget.

  35. [ Oh, yeah, it is my birthday weekend. ]

    Mothers lock up your sons…Dragon on the prowl. 🙂

    Have a good weekend Puff.

  37. “@ABCNews24: Obama: In just the first year that these standards go into effect, up to 100,000 asthma attacks and 2,100 heart attacks will be avoided.”

  39. [ Clever saying how heart attacks and asthma will be reduced ]

    Will have to check Nutter-Truckers later and see how their ongoing outrage party is fired up by that announcement. 🙂

    Does anyone besides me think that Abbott is really starting to get out of step with the long term policies of a couple of our largest trading partners?? Will not make his visits to either very comfortable.

  40. Coming up…a big week
    ______________
    The Vic parl’t will get into full gear
    Smith hates Shaw(and V,V) and both care little for Napthine’s fate…whom they both think(correctly) is doomed
    anyway

    Will this result in an unworkabe parl’ment,and could there be an earlier elecion than required if the Governor decides
    Prof Nick Economou from Monash has long warned of the possibilty of such in a leveled P’ment

    This would usher in a bloodbath for the Vic Libs,who must detest all Libs from north of the Murray

    Also Sbbott goes overseas to the 70th D-Day ceremonies(one wonders why in the midst of our “great Budget Emergency …and
    given our minimal involvement in the original event in Normandy )

    Did our other PM’s go to earlier such events in France over there in the last 70 years

    This is also the moment when his distracted MPs might set about his demise…how many weeks to the 70th anniversary of The Generals Plot against Hitler ?

    It’s also the week of The Great Gas Bill payment ? which might set the scene for a new episode in the eastern European crisis

    The Ukrainian Bill for 2 billion dollars worth of Russian gas is still unpaid to the Russian Gazprom ,and the ultimatum expired yesterday

    This is the week when the gas might go off.,,,as the Gazprom boys have just warned ..and that might see the Ukrainians cut off the flow to Europe across their borders to the EU… out of spit…bad news for European industry,not to mention the prospect of lots of cold food on the table in Warsaw and Berlin and Budapest(One hopes Angela Merkel has thought to get a big load of firewood in for the Reichstag kitchens ..or bangs goes any chance of a hot lunch ..raw bratwurst has few charms)…so much coming up to,watch out for

  42. confessions

    Think of 3d printing like a primitive version of the replicators in star trek.

    On the Drum they had a guy on from New York talking about his 4d printing project. Self assembling robots

  43. Thanks for the birthday and Thanks Fess, Saturday wishes. I will drink a toast to all you great Bludgers.

  44. confessions, in theory apparently you can buy a 3D printer and then print a 3D printer and then take the original back for a refund…

  46. [Once this trend sets in, will doctors raise their fees exorbitantly? Silly question. Will wasps sting and wild bears shit? Doctors act as a body – don’t foolishly rely on the figment of “competition”.

    The end game will be exactly what this Coalition government wants: ever-mounting pressure on patients to become privately insured.

    AKA a US-style health system.
    ]

    Actually NZ, France, Finland and Sweden all have introduced co payments and they didn’t end up with a US style health system.

  47. I have private health insurance, and yet medicare pays for my GP visits. Short of paying twice over, can private health insurance pay for my GP visits?

  50. guytaur

    Ah, I thought maybe that “4D” was a loose term used my marketers.

    I was in Malaysia at the time when the 3D craze went around in the cinemas. One even purport to say “Now in 5D!” Apparently 4D and 5D were loosely used to mean extra experiences, so in 5D they have the usual 2D screen, with 3D vision, plus vibrations in seats, and misting and other special effects used to add to the experience of the movies.

    And there I was thinking that I had to perceive the movie in 5D hyperdimensional vision.

Comments Page 36 of 38
1 … 35 36 37 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *