BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor

With nothing much doing in polldom this week, the momentum to Labor established by the post-budget results carries over into this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate reading.

With just about every pollster in the game taking the field last week to gauge budget reaction, there is a corresponding lull this week, the trusty weekly Essential Research being the only new data point nationally. Since this of itself doesn’t bear much weight in the model, the change since last week is more to do with pre-budget polling fading from the system than any recorded shift from last week to this. The trendlines instead move a little further along the trajectories set for them last week, with Labor up a further half a point on the primary vote, the Liberals down correspondingly, and a lift for the Greens boosting the two-party preferred shift to 0.8%.

There has been one substantial new poll result this weak, and that’s been a relatively mild result for the Coalition in Galaxy’s Queensland-only poll (which, interestingly enough, was exactly replicated in the small-sample Queensland component of this week’s Essential poll). However, the BludgerTrack model only uses state-level polling to determine the manner in which the national vote is apportioned between the states, so the effect of this result has been to soften Labor’s numbers in Queensland while fractionally improving them everywhere else. Since Queensland’s is the mother lode when it comes to marginal seats, the swing in the national result has yielded Labor little gain on the total seat projection, as gains of one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia have been counter-balanced by a loss of three in Queensland.

The other BludgerTrack news for the week is that the retrospective poll tracking charts have as promised been extended to the start of the Howard era, the results of which you can see on the sidebar. There is no new data this week on leadership ratings, so the results on the sidebar remain as they were a week ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,869 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Labor”

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  1. Actually NZ, France, Finland and Sweden all have introduced co payments and they didn’t end up with a US style health system.

    I personally would not have a problem with a small co payment, provided there were an annual cap and that those in need, including pensioners and the chronically ill, were taken care of. But I do not trust this Government.

    The named countries didn’t end up with a USA style health system probably because the parties that form Government in those countries are committed to universal health cover. Ditto Bob Hawke in 1991.

    But the Liberals and especially their bankrollers are not and have always wanted to dismantle Medicare. The purpose of the copayment is to force practitioners out of bulk billing as a first step.

  3. 4D printing is one of those marketing thingies.

    What it is is (in its current form) is 3d printing with materials that fold themselves into the final shape after printing (after being placed in water, say). It’s 4d in the sense that it changes over time.

  4. Raaraa

    [I have private health insurance, and yet medicare pays for my GP visits. Short of paying twice over, can private health insurance pay for my GP visits?]

    It’s a common misconception that private health insurance has anything to do with visits to GPs or specialists. It doesn’t pay anything to either.

    Health insurance is better considered to be private hospital insurance as it only covers you if you are an inpatient in a hospital.

    The health funds don’t address this misconception.

  9. I don’t mind drug testing dole folk, providing the principle is applied to parliamentarians.

    We all know that they are, at times, drunk on duty – or AWOL while drunk.

    We can safely surmise that some of them indulge in weed and coke.

    Goose, gander, IMHO.

  10. Put that hooch away……

    [DRUG testing for the unemployed and the suspension of payments to people with outstanding arrest warrants are two options to be debated in a major overhaul of welfare.

    The Abbott Government has confirmed it is looking closely at New Zealand’s welfare system, which includes a hardline approach to drug use.

    The New Zealand model strips welfare recipients of half their payments if they fail a job-required drug test or refuse to submit to one.

    They are then given 30 days to get clean. Those who continue to use drugs or refuse to take a job that requires testing are required to pay back their welfare payments.

    Social Services Minister Kevin Andrews last night said: “We won’t rule this in or out.”

    But the testing has been attacked as a waste of money by critics in New Zealand with low rates of positive results.

    Of the 8001 jobseekers sent for drug testing, only 22 had tested positive to drug use or had refused to take tests.

    Mr Andrews yesterday cautioned it would be more difficult to introduce in Australia because it would require the support of the states.]

    http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/drug-tests-if-youre-on-the-dole/story-fni0cx4q-1226938400218

  11. @sprocket_/1810

    Agreed, it is a waste of effort, of my time in TAFE over say a 5 year period (1 year courses) only 2 people I knew out of many many classes actually did drugs (mainly weed).

  13. Also does this mean they will need more staff at Centerlink to drug test?? And can those who been drug tested, can sue the Government if have been falsely identified?

  14. OK, now not only are they poor, on the dole and looking at a miserable future, they can’t even smoke a joint while the the private school kids, high-lifers and race-course inhabiting A-listees party away on the expensive shit.

  15. Pliger’s Utopia covering some old ground, but much of it bears repeating:

    The National Crime Commission found little evidence of abuse of children in Aboriginal communities in the NT. The 11,000 health checks revelaed nothing out of order. The abuse rates are estimated to be lower than most other areas of australia.

    Its was all a massive lie. The intervention was based on lies.

  17. In reply to drug testing

    “@Tweetermaan: @nosnikta53 @guytaur lie detectors at campaign launches attached to rectal probes bbzzzap (ouch) lets try again NO new taxes bbzzzap #auspol”

  21. This says it is for a “job-required” drug test.

    I assume that means the employer will only take you on if you pass the drug test.

    [The New Zealand model strips welfare recipients of half their payments if they fail a job-required drug test or refuse to submit to one.
    ]

  23. Drug testing: part of this nasty, vindictive Government’s class warfare. Obviously CES offices don’t have drug testing equipment. How much will it cost to carry out this program?

    This Government hoodwinks people using ‘downwards envy’. Instead of people insisting on their and their family’s fair share of the cake in terms of wages and conditions, educational opportunities for themselves or their kids, ditto health care, they are directed to resent people who need to rely on the community because of hard times (unemployment) or misfortune (disabled).

    Well, what about the other bludgers sucking up taxpayers’ money:
    – elite ‘private’ schools, soon to be joined by ‘private’ colleges
    – millionaires’ superannuation, before and after retirement
    – ‘private’ health funds
    – salary packagers – not handouts but avoiding their share (OK, I’ve done it and I’m not paying it back)
    – the fossil fuel industry
    – people and corporations, especially multi nationals, who use trust and corporate structures and offshore accounts to hide their income and assets, leaving their employees and others in the PAYE system to pick up the tab

    I’m sure the list can go on.

    I am now a self funded retiree. I don’t need handouts or concessions. I’ve never been unemployed but unemployment basically didn’t exist when I entered the workforce. It is so much harder for young people now.

    [end rant]

  24. Pres Musaveni of Uganda…he who passed the law recently imposing the death penalty for gay sex…seems likely to become the President of the UN General Assembly

    The world seems Very tolerant of looney African leaders …like the awful crowd in Nigeria

  27. [Of the 8001 jobseekers sent for drug testing, only 22 had tested positive to drug use or had refused to take tests.]

    I recall a story from the USA that drug testing welfare recipients showed that they in fact used drugs at a lower rate than the general population.

    Just more pointless authoritarian shit, from a bunch of pointless authoritarian shits.

  28. Peter Hinton ‏@peterjhinton May 29

    Abbott told so many lies during the election it could be argued his govt has a firm mandate to continue lying #auspol

  30. Zoidlord

    [But that happens anyway Dio, regardless Government interference.]

    What they are proposing to do is to halve your dole if you are knocked back for a job because you failed the drug test. That is the new thing. In the past it seems your dole continued.

    Technically you could deliberately keep failing drug tests so you are unemployable. 😉

  31. Just Me

    If they only got 22 who failed out of 8000 tests, I’d be very surprised if that wasn’t quite a lot lower than the average rate of drug taking in the community.

  34. One of the problems Abbott and the COALition has is that it has become obvious that they don’t like the Australian people generally.

  35. Forget prophesy on subway walls; just seen on twitter the forth law of thermodynamics.

    The amount of energy to refute bullshit is 10 times greater than to produce it.

  36. [teve777
    Posted Saturday, May 31, 2014 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    A new development – LDP and Family First agree to vote together on economic issues:]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-joe-hockey-face-new-senate-road-bloc-20140531-39azp.html

    I can’t really see how having these two turds in the senate is going to provide any problems for the government. They will agree with everything it wants to do.

    The sooner they are flushed away the better it will be for ordinary Australians.

  37. I should add that my interpretation on what is proposed is based on the reference to NZ; I wouldn’t put anything past Andrews.

  40. Darn

    The DLibPer is a wing nut.

    [”We will push for doing less on nanny state stuff. An end to plain packaging, lower tobacco taxes and fewer smoking rules affecting private property.
    ”Stop funding public health advocates who want to control what we eat. Stop funding the environmental organisations that oppose everything about modern society.
    ”I also intend to press buttons on health and education. There is no justification for the government being a service provider in these … Service providers, whether they are for profit, charitable or community, will do the job better ]

  42. A sting for pensioners
    Pensioners, mature-age workers and self-funded retirees will be stung sooner than expected by the budget.
    Those eligible for the part pension from next January will be hit by an effective 50 per cent tax as super payments are included in both means tests, financial advisers warn.

    Worse, after July 1 this year those on concession cards which are available to pensioners could lose as much as $2000 a year, says Louise Biti, head of technical services at Strategy Steps, which advises financial planners.

    The pension concession and Commonwealth Seniors Health cards offer travel, electricity, phone and council rate discounts in an agreement with the states.

    But buried in the budget documents the government reveals it will be “terminating” this agreement after July 1, saving $1.3 billion over four years.

    “It will hurt pensioners the most. This will cost $1000 to $2000 a year. No one was expecting that. Since it’s not a direct payment to pensioners the government didn’t want to highlight this,” Biti says.

    The separate abolition on September 20 of the “seniors supplement” attached to the Seniors Health card for self-funded retirees will cost couples $1320 a year.

    Since many Gps only bulk bill those on with a concession card they will pay $70 not $7.
    Those with pensioners who are near and dear to them should let them Know what they are in for.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/budgets-secret-sting-for-pensioners-and-matureage-workers-20140516-zreh5.html#ixzz33IXl04kW

  43. So, those who have failed the drug test, what happens to them?

    Any attempts at rehabilitation, or do they eventually end up on the street?

  44. And Bob Day associating with the wing nut will be a very bad look for Family First – which is quite an important force in SA with 2 State Upper House and 1 senator.

  45. I am watching the 1965 Cassius Clay v Floyd Patterson World Heavyweight Title fight of 1965. Those guys didn’t have hit each other.

  46. Just for a laugh _________
    _________US religious nutters

    The Rev Matt Hagee says that all talk of Global Warming is Satan word
    God will provide and to suggest otherwise is blasphemy..see below

    Magee is well know for his vicious anti-gay stuff,and he is a leading Christian Zionist…believing that Israel is a major part of God’s plan,and that all non-jews should be expelled from Palestine,and any critic of Israel is doing Satan’s work( How the Isreali must laught behind their hands at nutters like Hagee…who is a “useful idiot ” to them
    see below
    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/hagee-it-not-climate-change-its-imminent-return-jesus-christ

  47. Raaraa
    Well, if they decide on a life of crime, I hope they do their car stealing in the North Shore of Sydney and like areas.

  49. From lefty e

    [The National Crime Commission found little evidence of abuse of children in Aboriginal communities in the NT.
    The 11,000 health checks revelaed nothing out of order. The abuse rates are estimated to be lower than most other areas of australia.

    Its was all a massive lie. The intervention was based on lies.]

    Deserves to be repeated.

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