Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Simon Katich
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
    Peppa Pig? And why do we care?

    My kids love it, it has meant they dont want to watch The Wiggles. The Wiggles give me the S**ts. Peppa is the best entertainment on TV.]

    But why?

    Just as my kids liked Bananas in Pyjamas, Playschool; and Sesame Street, why is Peppa Pig good educational entertainment?

    The Wiggles? They were good clean fun, as far as I could tell, despite one of them being up for Male Playmate of the Year according to the Popular Press.

    What child wanted to sex Dorothy the Dinosaur? It was only the whim of the msm.

  2. [1224
    PeeBee
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 6:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Rummel, is what they are saying true? Are you a troll?]

    One persons troll is another’s BB 🙂

  3. kezza2, who is to say why they like it. But they giggle like…. well.. like little girls when its on. And I enjoy it too.

    As for Wiggles, they annoy me. Dont know why.

    I didnt like the Cockroaches either. “She’s the one, She’s the one, She’s the one…Hey, lets go lets go lets go (repeat till sick)”.

  4. rummel

    [One persons troll is another’s BB]

    Phwoar! Took a while for your wife to come up that comeback!

    Stick to what you know best, fighting fires and running with full gear on for your mate.

    It’s okay that you don’t consider climate change to be real. It’s not okay when you quote Andrew Bolt as the source of your information.

    Bolt has a proven track record of misrepresenting data. He’s not a reliable source.

  5. All those who did donate money for my walk will always have a special place in my heart, no matter how left wing they go. Even you Kezza2.

  6. The long term plan is for Universities to sell ‘education products’ on the ‘international market’. If the Libs stay in power as long as Howard then higher education will be mostly privatised and charging full fees. There will be a tiered system with first rate institutions resserved for the elites (thise with money, not the intellectual or cultural ones). Others will provide education for those who can scrape together a loan at commercial rates provided by the big banks or maybe ‘education brokers’.

    And no one will be able to escape their debt by dying.

  7. Simon Katich

    I can understand why the Wiggles annoy you. The Cockroaches didn’t do much to help them, did they? *shiver*

    But hey, we’re talking kids here.

    I just wanted to understand what was so special about Peppa Pig instead of a homegrown kids show.

  8. Steve777

    Privatized education ? The future is already here in the UK when it comes to pre school stuff. How unsurprisement at this result.

    [Poor children in private preschools ‘at double disadvantage’

    They not only fall behind in language skills before they start at nurseries but the gap then widens because the standard of provision is worse.

    The report, carried out by researchers from Oxford University and published by the Nuffield Foundation, shows that standards in the private sector in disadvantaged areas is of “lower quality” than in those settings serving more affluent homes.

    “In other words, the children most in need of good quality early provisions are actually amongst the least likely to receive it,” it concludes.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/poor-children-in-private-preschools-at-double-disadvantage-9441029.html

  9. [rummel
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 6:43 pm | PERMALINK
    All those who did donate money for my walk will always have a special place in my heart, no matter how left wing they go. Even you Kezza2.]

    Ah Rummel,

    Every week in the local we raise a glass to hypocrites.

    We call it the Rummel Special.

    :kiss:

  10. Isn’t the Hockey video from 1987 a gem!

    The rashness of youth and the folly of old age is the cliche, but in this case I would be more inclined to put young Hockey down as cutting his teeth in student politics and learning the ropes.

    The other adage I suppose is “No fool, like and old fool” though Hockey could be described as both a young and old fool now.

    I guess everyone took in the damage the Queensland students seemed to be causing those many years ago.

    Mind you, the current students at Uni are described by Pyne as radicals while Michael Chaney, now Uni of WA Chancellor, describes them as “blinkered left-wing students” in today’s West.

    I guess we are stuck with a “blinkered right-wing reactionaries” with both Treasurer and Chancellor. No coincidence of course that both come from a Catholic heritage steeped, no doubt, in DLP politics.

  11. Diogenes. 1226.

    I just KNEW you should not have posted that!

    ‘I asked whether HECS could be collected from estates about three hours ago!!

    Someone must be reading us!!’

    Especially after Pyne announced in QT that he was reading the Guardian. Made me think, what else is he reading.

  12. Education in bricks and mortar institutions is probably headed for a rapid death anyway.

    Large numbers of degrees require no physical presence at all, and as soon as they nail down teaching and assessing teaching outcomes over the net and various big-brand international institutions start gaining prestige for their online offerings, large numbers of physical institutions will be for the chop.

  13. A sobering fact from George Monbiot:

    Let us imagine that in 3030BC the total possessions of the people of Egypt filled one cubic metre.

    Let us propose that these possessions grew by 4.5% a year.

    How big would that stash have been by the Battle of Actium in 30BC?

    Go on, take a guess. Ten times the size of the pyramids? All the sand in the Sahara? The Atlantic ocean? The volume of the planet? A little more?

    It’s 2.5 billion billion solar systems.

    It does not take you long, pondering this outcome, to reach the paradoxical position that salvation lies in collapse.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/27/if-we-cant-change-economic-system-our-number-is-up

    There’s no escaping it. There’s only ignoring it.

  14. zoidlord

    Well Tones until a few years ago did make an annual pilgrimage to tug his forelock at an annual Toryfest in the UK. It was why he was too “jetlagged” to join JG in Afghanistan (?)

  15. Climate will understandably vary from season to season, and with the El Nino coming this year, the median temperatures for the next few years will be higher than that of the last 7 years. It’s easy for someone to have experienced a hot year this year, and the next year, facing a really cold winter, will of course say, “What warming? Climate change is bullcrap!”

    Of course, but if you take the yearly median temperatures over a period of time, say 10 years, you will see higher numbers over the decades!

    @1248, 1249

    They just showed that clip on The Project! What a hypocrite he is, at that time saying that education should be free.

  16. BB

    Wow. 2,5 billion solar systems. Whoda thought?

    Sounds like the one who said he’d be paid by the chess board/

    And who gives a toss about the lack of orders for your speciality then?

    Moi, on the other hand, has just secured a job for the ages.

    I didn’t tell you lot that I was also a dab hand at painting.

  17. The Peppa Pig issue has little to do with the program itself (I’ve never seen it myself).

    Peppa Pig would have been unknown to most people except pre-schoolers and their parents, except that Bolt’s colleague Ackerman claimed it was leftist garbage or some such. Presumably he was cued by his UK counterparts where the series is made.

    The issue now having been raised to political prominence, it was mentioned in Estimates today, in the context of cuts to the ABC budget.

    Ch7 news had the story and finished it with a quote from the ever ignorant Barnaby – I know what Peppa (Pepper) pig is, it’s number 23 on the menu at the local Thai restaurant.

  18. Beware this insidious menace when it comes to education.

    [The schools crusade that links Michael Gove to Rupert Murdoch

    One of Murdoch’s long-term projects is what he calls a “revolutionary and profitable” move by his media companies into online education. Gove would be a key figure in any attempt to penetrate the British schools market.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/feb/26/schools-crusade-gove-murdoch

    [The Steve Jobs Model for Education Reform

    By Rupert Murdoch

    October 15, 2011]
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970203914304576631100415237430

  19. [Isn’t the Hockey video from 1987 a gem!]

    Not really. Hockey was being as partisan in 1987 as a youth, as he is now as a adult man.

  20. Wow. A Morgan survey finds Gillard and Obama as the most admired figures of 2013.

    The Australian of all newspapers has an article on it.

  21. Was just looking to see if mari had been tweeting and found this. Crabbe does well when she tries

    [Annabel Crabb ‏@annabelcrabb 18m
    Oh, to be a headline writer right now. “HECS Paid From Pyne Box”. “Grave Reservations”. “Pyne: Hey Kids! You’re Coffin Up!”]

  22. Has there been any reporting from Newscorpse on Brand is watering down his race hate laws?

    If it was Gillard they would have reported it as her being rolled in Cabinet, how she lacked authority and a revolt inside party room.

  23. [citizen
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 7:10 pm | PERMALINK
    The Peppa Pig issue has little to do with the program itself (I’ve never seen it myself).

    Peppa Pig would have been unknown to most people except pre-schoolers and their parents, except that Bolt’s colleague Ackerman claimed it was leftist garbage or some such. Presumably he was cued by his UK counterparts where the series is made.

    The issue now having been raised to political prominence, it was mentioned in Estimates today, in the context of cuts to the ABC budget.

    Ch7 news had the story and finished it with a quote from the ever ignorant Barnaby – I know what Peppa (Pepper) pig is, it’s number 23 on the menu at the local Thai restaurant.]

    Oh FGS isn’t Barnaby the biggest dick in town?

    If he wants to alienate a cohort, then ABC parents would be it. Most parents do not want to subject their kids to mindless advertising, so even if they want a tele to entertain their kids, they leave it on ABC in the mornings.

    When I asked Simon Katich to explain to me about Peppa Pig, I was serious.

    My kids loved Playschool, Sesame Street, etc. I wanted to know what Peppa Pig was about. I obviously can google it.

    It’s not that I’m out of touch, like Barnaby, it’s just that I haven’t heard of it. But unlike Barnaby, I wouldn’t dare make a joke about a kids’ program that is popular with the younger generation.

    But, you can tell Barnaby Joyce, like everything else in his life, has no experience with raising kids.

    He’s a bit like the blokes in my family. You sire children and leave the raising of them to the girls.

    But should he stub his toe, he’ll want expert attention. And a nice little fairy story to send him to sleep.

  24. A related calculation to that in #1270…

    Assuming the population of the Earth is today 7 billion and is growing at the rate of 1.5%…

    * In 50 years, the population will be 14.8 billion, roughly double the population of today.

    * In 100 years, the population will be 31 billion, roughly four times the population of today.

    * In 948 years, the equivalent in time since the Norman invasion of England, the population will be 9,438,567
    billion (9.4 billion billion), roughly 1.3 million times the population of today.

    * 50 years later, in 1000 years from today, the year 3014, the population will be 20,471,058 billion (20.47 billion billion), roughly 2.9 million times the population of today.

    * Just 50 years later, try a population of 6 million times that of today.

    * 50 years after that, the population will be TWELVE million times that of today.

    Think you’re overcrowded now? Too many boat people? Can’t ever get a parking spot?

    Try those numbers for size.

  25. BH@1282

    Was just looking to see if mari had been tweeting and found this. Crabbe does well when she tries

    Annabel Crabb ‏@annabelcrabb 18m
    Oh, to be a headline writer right now. “HECS Paid From Pyne Box”. “Grave Reservations”. “Pyne: Hey Kids! You’re Coffin Up!”

    She doesn’t try nearly enough. She’s a celebrity with aspirations to be a journalist, and not the other way around.

  26. Re BB @1270 – ultimately, exponential is not sustainable. Something that grows at X% per annum approximately doubles every 70/X years. So growth at 3% per annum doubles about every 23 years. That’s a factor of about 1,000 every 230 years and a million after 460.

    The Dutch bought Manhattan from the Native Americans for the equivalent of about $24. The rate of return to date might be about 7% over 400 years.

  27. [
    Bushfire Bill
    ..

    Try those numbers for size.
    ]
    Clearly, it isn’t going to happen. The interesting insite would by why? Where does the war start? Who wins and who gets killed? These are probable good questions.

  28. Monbiot is wrong.

    The real question is not whether the environment is infinite source and infinite sump which it is.

    The real question is whether we are going to be clever enough to exploit the infinite source and infinite sump ad infinitum.

  29. BW compare Deblonay’s post with the actual announcement –
    “Today, I want to be clear about how the United States is prepared to advance those missions. At the beginning of 2015, we will have approximately 98,000 U.S. — let me start that over, just because I want to make sure we don’t get this written wrong. At the beginning of 2015, we will have approximately 9,800 U.S. servicemembers in different parts of the country, together with our NATO allies and other partners. By the end of 2015, we will have reduced that presence by roughly half, and we will have consolidated our troops in Kabul and on Bagram Airfield. One year later, by the end of 2016, our military will draw down to a normal embassy presence in Kabul, with a security assistance component, just as we’ve done in Iraq”

  30. kj

    Yep. Deblonay lied in that post.

    Clearly, Obama’s intention is that his last fortnight in office will be marked by a US which does not have troops engaged in active combat o/s.

  31. I have to say I’m not feeling the outrage here about Peppa Pig being axed.

    My instinctive, non-parental reaction is the country is facing much larger threats in Abbott’s first budget.

  32. poroti You didn’t let me down. I’m tired but need a laugh 🙂

    Player One The journalism is one thing but she was quick off the mark with those quips.

    What on earth has Pyne got himself into with this thought bubble .. or is it policy hidden til now.

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