Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 33
1 … 24 25 26 … 33

  1. rummel

    I really do expect a response on your false claim.

    Ignoring what I have posted [see #1176] about your multiple fallacies will not make them go away – reality bites and has memory.

    Do you acknowledge the documented observed fact that the globe is continuing to warm?

  2. Aaah, the VAPOURS

    He he he he . . . .

    As I have often regaled, I come from a family of four male siblings, and four female siblings.

    With my parents, we were a five-a-side-team, on gender lines.

    The fun we women had with “having the vapours”.

    The males of the family scorned us for being too sentimental and too bloody concerned.

    Unless, of course, it was something to do with them.

    Then when the ‘men’ had a problem, we were supposed to support them without recourse to discovering what had happened.

    If we did find them at fault, we just had to have an attack of the vapours to allow them to take up their own cudgels.

    We couldn’t support them on principle. But that never let them get in the way of violin-playing.

    But seriously, the amount of times men dismissed women because of their compassion was really brought home to us when a nephew had been involved in accident and his friend had been killed.

    My father was called to give evidence at the inquest. The coroner had been given information that my nephew had confessed to my father that he had actually been the driver of the vehicle in which my nephew’s friend had been killed.

    When my father was questioned by the coroner and vehemently denied such a situation had ever occurred, and was absolutely aghast at this allegation, my dad’s reply was:

    “That’s women’s business. I have never indulged in gossip. And I never spoke to my grandson about this.”

    The coroner didn’t believe him. And said that no grandfather would behave like that.

    The coroner didn’t know my dad.

    Funnily enough, dad then had an attack of the vapours. And was very obstreperous when he recovered after a dose of smelling salts.

    Sexism. How soon can it be stamped out?

  4. I thought Mark Scott simply said that Peppa Pig couldn’t be guaranteed.

    That’s a long way from being cut.

    Let’s keep some perspective here, people!

  5. [One suggestion I heard as to where the ABC should cut… is rural and regional services]

    Unless you mean ‘Macca’. Then yes.

  7. I’ve never actually seen Peppa Pig. It’s a UK animated series with apparently a cast of thousands (or dozens anyway). It’s probably fairly expensive since it seems to have a wide international distribution.

    There have been controversies. The Pig family didn’t wear seat belts for a couple of seasons (the adult pigs drive). She was also associated with the Blair Government’s launch of a Child care program. Devotion to Green causes, feminazism or socialism isn’t mentioned, however, but possibly association with a UK Labor Government’s program is proof enough.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peppa_Pig

  10. PeeBee

    It must have been at least four years ago that rummel was quoting Boltisms about climate and I actually tried to reason with him then. I thought he was genuinely wanting to know. After months of frustration I simply gave up and I suggest you ignore him too.

  11. Jackol,

    Fair point, but please allow me my rage. It cruel to even suggest it be cut.

    Still havent forgiven them for letting Colbert go to Fox. But that was just my loss, this is so much worse.

  12. Zoid

    My very first post to you about this was #1138

    You replied “rubbish.”

    This is a cut and paste from my #1138:

    “5) The conservos linking pension to CPI (again, what you say is best) means that pension increases will be less.”

    Can you see the words “pension” and “less”.

  13. [lizzie
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 5:52 pm | PERMALINK
    PeeBee

    It must have been at least four years ago that rummel was quoting Boltisms about climate and I actually tried to reason with him then. I thought he was genuinely wanting to know. After months of frustration I simply gave up and I suggest you ignore him too.]

    Good idea, lizzie.

    Just like I gave up on trying to explain to my younger brother that it wasn’t a good idea to ‘holiday’ in NT, rape Aboriginal women, and take pot shots at the rest of natives with an air rifle.

    Some folk just won’t listen to reason.

  14. Rummel is polite and good natured.

    He’s also at least partially a troll – rocking up and dropping some Boltism about climate change on here just to get reactions.

    But he’s perfectly entitled to be here – I’m glad he pops up, although some input apart from injecting more Bolt would be appreciated.

    And, of course, the best way to deal with trolling is to ignore it.

  15. [I thought he was genuinely wanting to know. ]

    Some punters here even contributed to his mate’s fire-a-thon or walk-a-thon or whatever (I didn’t and never would).

    Talk about come in spinners, for those that did.

  16. jackol

    [But he’s perfectly entitled to be here – I’m glad he pops up, although some input apart from injecting more Bolt would be appreciated.]

    I am with you!

  17. BB
    [Some punters here even contributed to his mate’s fire-a-thon or walk-a-thon or whatever (I didn’t and never would).

    Talk about come in spinners, for those that did.]

    I was one of them. I did it for his mate, not for him. Thank you very much.

    There is a difference between compassion for a fellow, and support for an adversary, you know.

  20. Why am I not surprised.

    [Federal Education Minister Christopher Pyne has opened the door to collecting HECS debts from deceased estates, a policy move which would boost government revenue by an estimated $800 million a year. Mr Pyne said he had no “ideological opposition” to collecting debts from the estates of former students who died still owing money to the government’s student loan scheme.]

  23. Someone asked about HECS debts and the debt earlier.

    [Pyne may take HECS from the dead

    Federal Education Minister Christopher Pyne has opened the door to collecting HECS debts from deceased estates, a policy move which would boost government revenue by an estimated $800 million a year. Mr Pyne said he had no “ideological opposition” to collecting debts from the estates of former students who died still owing money to the government’s student loan scheme.]

  29. [Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 6:10 pm | PERMALINK
    ru

    I asked whether HECS could be collected from estates about three hours ago!!

    Someone must be reading us!!]

    Spooky.

    And tax accountants will right now be considering the nearest loophole(s).

    So good for business, though.

  30. I think Pyne is wrong to collect HECS from estates.

    It is meant to be paid back to the government when the student has been reaping the benefit of the education, which only occurs after you have been earning more than the average wage, or something like that.

    I can’t see that someone who never reached that threshold before dying should have to pay after they die as they never reaped the benefit of the degree.

  32. The Republican’s attacked Big Bird, Abbott goes after Peppa Pig. Surely the Libs know what happens next?

    Free Peppa rallies held by 4 yr olds.

  35. on the HECS death duty:

    According to Norton, who works with the Grattan Institute, the move would have an immediate effect on the budget treatment of student debt, and in most cases do nothing more than deprive heirs of windfall gains in the distant future.

    Er. There are quite a few problems with this.

    First of all there has been a long standing bipartisan commitment to effectively not bring back inheritance taxes – presumably because it will ‘deprive heirs of windfall gains in the distant future’.

    Second the debts that this would catch would be the ones where a person had not had a high enough taxable income in their lifetimes to make any substantial inroads into their education debt. So they didn’t earn very much, but somehow there would be “windfall gains” … no. These debts would simply absorb any small estates leaving their likely low income low wealth heirs with nothing.

    Thirdly this measure would really only make sense if large lifelong debts that don’t get fully paid off are a substantial part of the landscape – ie it is almost a tacit admission that permanent debt is just an expected consequence of the various changes to higher education fees and interest payments.

    Ugly ugly ugly. Introduce a high threshold inheritance tax if you’re ok with hitting “windfall gains to heirs”.

    Don’t promote lifelong debt and then nuking meagre inheritances in poor families.

  36. [deblonay
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    As the famous Marlena Dietrich anti-war song once said…
    “When will they ever learn”
    ____________________
    Now Obama wants to keep a PERMENANT US garrison in Afg’stan of about 10.000 men…at vast cost too

    The US militarists can’t let that empire go can they?]

    This post has been constructed around a lie.

  37. So a young graduate dies, still under the age of 25, has no personal assets/estate.

    Who do the government go after to recover the HECS debt?

    The parents??

  38. If the HELP debts are charged at 6% compounding Pyne has to look at charging the dead. They are the only ones who could have paid it off.

  40. [Dee
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    So a young graduate dies, still under the age of 25, has no personal assets/estate.

    Who do the government go after to recover the HECS debt?

    The parents??]

    Not the parents or the siblings or any issue.

    The taxpayer, having already picked up the tab, does not get the money back.

    aka. You and me.

  41. @psyclaw/1212

    I suggest that you read back through my posts, I never suggested that CPI is the best measure, in fact, I disagreed on it, that is why I was arguing with MB earlier.

  43. I’m so glad the topic of University Degrees is still topical – without or without the input of fees.

    A couple of years ago, in July 2012, Amanda Vanstone and Annabel Crabb were on opposing sides of a debate on this very issue.

    The topic was: HAVING A UNIVERSITY DEGREE IS GROSSLY OVERRATED

    Crabb was arguing the affirmative, while Vanstone was arguing the negative.

    Vanstone’s team won, just.

    The funny thing is Vanstone’s recent article in Fairfax was arguing the complete opposite of her stance two years ago.

    (Yes, alright, I realise she was part of a debate, and had been assigned to a particular side of the debate, and oh how interesting that it was all so academic, yes I get it).

    Anyways, here’s the link to the debate:

    http://www.iq2oz.com/debates/having-a-university-degree-is-grossly-overrated/

    Click on videos.

  44. [Peppa Pig? And why do we care?]

    My kids love it, it has meant they dont want to watch The Wiggles. The Wiggles give me the S**ts. Peppa is the best entertainment on TV.

    What next ABC? Cut the bunnies in Guess How Much I Love You? Seriously – cut Uhlmann and Crabb and keep the pigs and bunnies.

  48. Jason Clare MP ‏@JasonClareMP 5m

    Media Release: Turnbull lies again http://bit.ly/1jZVNZm #auspol

    Adam Bandt ‏@AdamBandt 1m

    I was once a proud student activist, campaigning against uni fees. Turns out Joe Hockey was too! This is must see TV: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-video-from-1987-shows-treasurer-protesting-against-university-fees-20140528-394jn.html …

    Oh deary me, Joe Hockey protesting 1987 uni fees.

  50. Btw channel 9 also reported on the student protest here in Melbourne pointing out Abbott’s daughter $60,000 whilst enslaving them to a lifetime of debt

Comments Page 25 of 33
1 … 24 25 26 … 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *