Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    Ms Bishop making a general statement to the House about what the Speakership means in the Australian House.

    Shorter Bishop: hunky dory. She is getting interrupted while standing.

  2. From the previous thread…

    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    Fran@1915…making the indirect tax system more onerous does not make administration of the direct tax system any easier. It just diverts resources, makes the system more complicated and, depending how things fall, will depress production and real wages. That is, it will make the welfare outcomes worse than they otherwise would be.

    I reckon we probably agree that we should use the tax system to optimise welfare across the income/wealth spectrum. One way of achieving this is to keep things as simple as possible.

    To take your example of luxury cars, there is a tax on these vehicles. But whether it falls on private taxpayers or not depends on the direct tax system – on FBT and on what kind of deductions from personal or company income are permitted in relation to vehicle costs. In reality, tax collected by indirect measures is at least partly and possibly is wholly refunded by concessions in the direct system.

    Tax laws are already incredibly lengthy and complex. There’s probably no more than 1,000 people in the country who are properly conversant with the whole, and many of them work in private legal and accounting tax practices. It would be desirable if we could make the system simpler to comply with and enforce rather than the opposite.

    Reforming negative gearing would be a simple start. Applying uniform taxation to super contributions and earnings would also be simple and would help.

    We do not need to make the system a lot more complicated to make it better serve the goals of equity and efficiency.

  3. So… it seems the keepers and custodians of the traditions of the Westminster System, are going to play strictly by the fine print?

    They always do this.

  4. Ms Bishop responds to a POO with ‘What a shame’. She too is sounding very emotional.

    Hah! Pyne demands that Burke apologise, adding that were he a ‘gentleman’ he would do so.

  5. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:05 pm | PERMALINK
    First ever Coalition red under Ms Bishop! The Member for Herbert… disorder in the House.]

    Is this a token booting to show BBishop is impartial?

  6. Placards are up again. Ms Bishop asks the Manager of Opposition Business to control his members. Burke responds with a POO asking that the same rule be applied to Abbott who is also waving a bit of paper.

  7. In less than one year, the LNP have begun the great unraveling of our historic prosperity. They are utterly useless!!

    [Australian consumer financial stress is rapidly rising, as households begin to digest the federal budget, and adjust to low wages growth, a survey has found.

    Dun and Bradstreet’s quarterly Consumer Financial Stress Index, released today, shows Australian financial stress levels have risen by almost a third, to 18.7 points from 13 in September.

    The stress has been caused by a mixture of slow wages growth and the expected effect of federal budget cuts on household finances, Dun and Bradstreet said.

    According to Dun and Bradstreet Australia & New Zealand chief executive Gareth Jones, “the upward trajectory is concerning”, considering the otherwise relatively healthy economic data.

    “It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the financial position of more consumers coming under strain,” Mr Jones said.

    The four year old index is forecast to rise to 24.7 points by July, its second highest level on record, as households find debt repayments more difficult and the quality of credit applications worsens.]

    Read more:

  8. [briefly
    Posted Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at 2:10 pm | PERMALINK

    The LNP drive the economy into a river!]

    This report blames the budget, not the warm May weather as in Fairfax stories:

    [“This data is consistent with recent trade feedback suggesting a material decline in sales across the fashion industry since the federal budget,” write the analysts…

    “We would also note negative newsflow around the budget is likely to continue for some time, increasing the likelihood that weaker sentiment continues into FY15.”]

  9. A river of ‘will desists’.

    The Speaker is avoiding yellows where before she showered them on the Opposition like confetti at a wedding.

  10. “@LatikaQT: Treasurer Joe Hockey foreshadows a tale of the ‘War of the Bowens.’ This will presumably be between PBO’s Phil Bowen and Labor’s Chris Bowen”


    [Consumer confidence fell a further 1.1% to 99.3 in the week ending 25 May. Confidence is now down 15% over the past five weeks when various Budget policies first made news headlines. While the decline was relatively more modest compared to previous weeks, confidence has now dipped below 100 – the ‘neutral line’ – for the first time since May 2009.

    Respondents’ perceptions of ‘economic conditions next year’ fell a sharp 6.2%, while moves across all other subindices were relatively modest. For example, perceptions of ‘financial situation compared to a year ago’ which is most correlated with households’ spending growth rose 1% last week. After having fallen relatively sharply over the past two months, however, this series continues to suggest consumer spending could soften in the near term.

    At this stage, ANZ’s bottom line for the household consumption outlook remains that consumer spending will improve this year, although the confidence impacts from the Budget may weigh on the speed of that recovery.]

    The LNP have done as much harm to household confidence as much as the whole eco-volcano known as the GFC.

  12. That UMR poll’s 2PP results don’t look right. Makes some pretty big assumptions about preferences, especially in Forde

  13. Can anyone link me to the photo of Pyne poking his tongue out to the Speaker of the House Anna Bligh when he was ejected from parliament?

    Never mind, I found it, via a lefty site of all places , still it may be true despite that might it not?

    Why bring it up, the photo that is?
    Cos Pyne has just said in parliament [paraphrase] that despite being ejected lots of times last term he always showed respect to the Speaker in the Chair.

    Here’s the link

  14. Why are the government ministers stressing out so much about Labor’s record? They’re the government with a dog of a Budget, not Labor.

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