Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Sachin Lara – that survey report was an AAP article, not written by an Oz journo. You will be abe to find it on lots of sites. Although it’s on their site at the moment, I doubt it will be in tomorrow’s hard copy.

  2. [confessions
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 7:30 pm | PERMALINK
    I have to say I’m not feeling the outrage here about Peppa Pig being axed.]
    That’s because you’re deliberately barren, didncha know.

    Because you’re not a mother you have no idea about kids.

  5. BH@1295


    Player One The journalism is one thing but she was quick off the mark with those quips.

    Yes she was – I even laughed. But I didn’t say she wasn’t intelligent, or even talented. I just said she wasn’t a journalist.

    She should really be working for one of the commercial TV stations, where style matters more than substance. She’d do really well.

  7. Re BB @1287: if those numbers hold, in around the year 3050, it works out at about one person per square metre of land on the Earth.

    Of course that can’t and eon’t happen.

  8. Here is the original Roy Morgan report on their survey

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5604-aussies-name-most-admired-figures-201405272325
    [Admiration nation: Aussies name their most admired public figures

    May 28 2014 Finding No. 5604 Topic: Press Release

    Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), Jan 2013- Dec 2013, n= 10,209. Base: Australians 14+ who named at least one public figure. Respondents were asked: ‘Please write down the names of 3 public figures you admire the most’

    If you were asked to note down the names of the three public figures you admired the most, who would you pick? A politician? A scientist? A sporting hero? One of each? In this day and age of brawling media tycoons and naughty rugby players, lying MPs and disgraced celebrities, it’s not necessarily an easy task. And funnily enough, the public figure named most often by admiring Australians last year isn’t even Australian.

    Put your hands together for Barack Obama!

    In 2013, the US President was named by 12.7% of Australians aged 14+ as one of the public figures they most admire. In fact, of the five people whose names came up most often, only two were Australian: former Prime Ministers Julia Gillard (12.3%) and John Howard (7.7%). Nelson Mandela and the Queen also made the top five.]

    the press release includes a table

    http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Findings%20PDF/2014/May/5604-Admired-figures-1.pdf

  9. Climate change
    They may not know why (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat), but every bogan knows, when the ice melts the beer gets warm. The planet’s problem is the ice is melting rapidly, keeping things sorta cool at the moment. The fun starts, the beer gets warm, when the ice is gone.

    It is stinking that Rummel can’t even climb to bogan status.

  12. Player One You could be right. I didn’t watch all her Kitchen series but the couple I did watch were quite good. The guests were relaxed and entertaining.

    I admit I dipped out on the Hockey, Abbott and Bronnie shows.

  13. @1287 Bushfire Bill

    I put a simpler argument against Centre a few weeks back about how there’s not enough resources for everybody and no way we could last till anywhere near the Sun becomes a red giant (where he said we’ll probably be living in space stations then). He didn’t respond.

  15. BB’s figures are based on many, many false assumptions.

    One of them is that human life expectancy will always be finite.

  18. [ It is stinking that Rummel can’t even climb to bogan status. ]

    Like Abbott, rummel is secretly in favor of global warming.

    Global warming is a fire-fighter’s wet dream – it gives them a reason to swan around in hi-vis vests, drive heavy vehicles, and get their soot-smudged faces in photos on the front page … all by just pissing on everyone.

  21. If you ask any parent who have kids from toddler to early primary school. Ask them what Peppa Pig is and you’ll see their eyes roll away all the way to Canberra.

  23. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 7:44 pm | PERMALINK
    k2
    Chap’s mad.]
    But weren’t you one or the ones lauding his so-called scientific credentials because he is demanding a Science Minister in this lax Abbott govt?

    I mean, I’d like a Science Minister, too, but not one of the Dennis Jensen variety.

  24. Perhaps we can have some polling on Peppa Pig being butchered? I’d bet my right arm that most people couldn’t care less about his/her(?) demise.

  28. confessions

    I lean to the crackling side of the reduction of porcine waste and the consequent contribution to DESTROYING LABOR’S DEBT AND DEFICIT DISASTER!!!

    Everyone must contribute, even Peppa.

  29. BB’s figures illustrate that growth can’t go on forever. One way or another, whatever is growing has to stabilise at a sustainable level or crash.

  32. S777

    BB’s figures are based on the assumption that our universe is finite and that our universe is the only universe.

    Neither, IMHO is likely.

  34. According to NewScientist we are facing an apocalypse in the future re: viruses.

    Today we hear of another viral threat, MERS.

  35. [Monbiot is wrong.]

    The numbers don’t lie, BW.

    It’s not that Monbiot is wrong. He’s pointing out the absurdity of continuous growth.

    He posits the numbers he does to prove we can’t just keep growing.

    We have companies punished today, not because they did not grow over the past 12 months, but because they did not grow fast enough.

    I don’t know what the solution is to the “continuous growth” model, but we’d better find one soon.

  36. Zoid #1241

    You said that you never said that CPI was the best measure for pension increase and that in fact you disagreed with it.

    Well here’s what you actually wrote at #985. I have cut and pasted your words, for accuracy.

    “Pensions should be increased at the rate of Cost of Living.”

    That is you agreeing with CPI as the measure, in fact arguing for it.

    That is exactly what Hockey is trying to do in the budget.

  38. vic
    [What are your thoughts re the Hawks chances in light of Alistair clarkson being out of action?]

    Cats will win the flag. Again.

  39. BB
    [I don’t know what the solution is to the “continuous growth” model, but we’d better find one soon.]

    Simple. Another World War.

    And another Sullivans spin-off.

  40. v

    Stewart is talking out of his arse.

    Individual response to GB syndrome vary greatly.

    Shorter answer at this stage: nobody knows Clarkson’s health trajectory.

    In terms of the Hawks’ chances: bad.

    But I had much rather Clarkson fully recovered than that the Hawks win another flag this year.

    Clarkson’s condition puts things in perspective.

  42. We were all discussing this a few months ago in relation to Barnett’s silly shark cull, but now there’s a suggestion of scientific evidence to back our discussion.

    [Dr Holyoake said researchers from Murdoch University and WA’s Department of Parks and Wildlife tried to find out the reasons for the surge through post-mortem examination.

    They concluded the most likely cause of the humpback calf strandings was poor nutrition.

    “Post-mortem examination and analysis of the fat content of blubber samples revealed most calves were in an extremely malnourished state,” Dr Holyoake said.

    “Most had very low blubber fat, which is required for energy, thermoregulation and for buoyancy.

    “One individual also had pneumonia which would have made it difficult to breathe and may have contributed to its death.”

    All strandings happened between Exmouth and Stokes Inlet, east of Esperance, meaning they were born at least 1000km south of the regular breeding grounds in the Kimberley region.

    “Humpback whales feed almost exclusively on krill in the Antarctic and it’s unknown what effect an expanding krill fishery in conjunction with climate warming might be having on the abundance of krill,” Dr Holyoake said.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23918829/nutrition-behind-whale-strandings-vets/

  43. AussieAchmed

    Da man himself was none too impressed by the name either.

    [ The Higgs Boson and the Nobel: Why We Call It the ‘God Particle’

    But “God particle”? The name was the invention of Leon Lederman, himself a great physicist, who used it as the title of a popular book in 1993.

    Scientists and clerics almost uniformly say they dislike it. Even Peter Higgs said he wished Lederman hadn’t done it. “I have to explain to people it was a joke,” Higgs said in a rare interview with The Guardian in 2007. “I’m an atheist, but I have an uneasy feeling that playing around with names like that could be unnecessarily offensive to people who are religious.”]
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesleadershipforum/2013/10/09/the-higgs-boson-wins-the-nobel-why-we-call-it-the-god-particle/

  46. Re BW @1332 – we don’t know the answer to either, but if humanity and/or its artefacts and descendants are to spread beyond Earth (DNA plus software plus machines at sub-light speed over thousands / millions of years through the Galaxy and beyond?) we have to get through the next hundred years first.

  47. BB

    The numbers mightn’t be lying but the assumptions are contestable. He doesn’t even spell them out. Here are just a few:

    (1) That global population will always grow. This is extremely unlikely.

    (2) That economic growth will always require a physical dimension. This is less and less so as a proportion of growth.

    (3) That human inegnuity and innovation has limits. It may but it is not axiomatic.

  48. 1346

    The universe has to be finite or we would be seeing a whitewash of stars in our night sky, therefore it has to expand forever. Unfortunately, we will reach a state of proton decay. Long after everything we know have perish, of course.

  49. Boerwar

    My FIL contracted this syndrome around this time last year. After treatment and lengthy rehab he got better. Although, Unfortunately, he is now suffering leukaemia.

  50. @psyclaw/1336

    Wrong again.

    CPI isn’t the only measure of current Pensions, go read ruawakes post at 1016 and then my post at 1020, before coming back and accusing me.

    You are still not understanding the issue.

    Infact, go read the whole entire discussion, and just don’t focus on one part of it.

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