Post-budget polling has emphatically confirmed a second major shift in public opinion since the election, the first being a strikingly early dip in the new government’s fortunes in November, leaving the opposition with a narrow lead when the dust had settled. With every pollster but ReachTEL having produced results in the wake of last Tuesday’s budget, the latest landslip looks even bigger than the first, and it sends the Coalition into territory that was all too familiar to Labor during its tumultuous second term in office. The damage was done by Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan, with a small amount of the edge taken off by more moderate results from Galaxy and Essential Research. Even so, Labor now has a lead on the primary vote for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business in late 2012, even taking into account that the Greens have retained a healthy share of the vote, perhaps finding a new equilibrium with their head just above double figures. Also continuing to make hay out of the exodus from the Coalition is the Palmer United Party, which this week reaches a new high of 7.0%.
No less spectacular is the latest update on leadership ratings, for which near-identical sets of data have emerged this week courtesy of Newspoll and Nielsen. The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it. This puts Abbott at a level Julia Gillard would only have known in a particularly bad week. Even more encouragingly for Labor, Bill Shorten’s ratings are on an upward swing, putting him back into net positive territory after three months below par. What had previously been a steady narrowing trend in Tony Abbott’s lead on preferred prime minister has sharply accelerated, to the extent of putting Shorten substantially ahead – an uncommon achievement for an Opposition Leader.
The state projections this week see the distinction in state swings even out, most notably in the case of Queensland where the swing to Labor got out of hand for a few weeks there. A considerable influence here was the latest Nielsen breakdown, which provided the first presentable set of figures I had seen for the Coalition in Queensland for some time. This may suggest that the budget backlash in that state was muted by the fact that Labor had less slack to take up, although there is no doubt also a large element of the statistical noise to which state breakdowns are inevitably prone. The upshot is that the Coalition’s position on the Queensland seat projection actually improves by four seats this week, testament in part to the state’s super-abundance of marginal seats. Offsetting this are bumper gains for Labor in other states – four seats in New South Wales, putting Bennelong, Gilmore and Macquarie on the table in addition to all the seats lost in September; three in marginals-starved Victoria, adding Casey and Dunkley to the more familiar targets of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe; and one each in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania.
In other BludgerTrack news, you now have the chance to put Labor’s poll surge in somewhat broader perspective thanks to the retrospective poll tracking displayed on the sidebar, which at present encompasses the previous three terms, with plans to go back to the start of the Howard era in due course. For this you can think the sleuth work of Kevin Bonham, who has provided me with Nielsen data going back to 1996. Taking into account the more readily accessible archives of Newspoll and Morgan, this should eventually give me three pollsters to play with over the totality of the intended period. For the time being, the display encompasses the familiar poll aggregate from the previous term; the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government, which also includes Essential Research and a smattering of Galaxy to supplement the three aforementioned pollsters; and the Howard government’s final term in office.
@82 – I understand where you’re coming from, but a door-stop presser is not the place for policy pronouncements. They know they have to speak short and sharp for it to be picked up in the news reports. For good or ill (almost entirely ill) the ‘sloganeering’ is how stuff gets out there.
Most people don’t have the time or inclination to watch pressers on 24 at 10am… so they communicate the manner suitable for the forum.
I like how the Daily Tele front page declares their story on DSP recipients “Exclusive”. It’s an exclusive all right, I doubt that any other media organisation in Australia could come up with a story as bad as that.
victoria
It seems strange to me that, when Hockey was asked the question on QandA about how he stays in touch with ordinary people, he didn’t think to mention ‘Margaret from Langwarrin’.
Forgotten already??
The sooner we call for an election, the sooner we can deal with Newspapers like DailyTerror.
zoomster
Is Margaret even a real person
@104 – or they again try to deal with us…
sceptic:
[Bill in his presser making same poorly thought out repetitive boring sloganeering comments, right out of Abbott handbook]
You say that as if it’s a bad thing for an Opposition to do. That handbook helped make Abbott PM.
Slogans get air-time in the evening news bulletins. Long speeches do not, no matter how incisive and cogent they are.
I don’t know what you people are seeing but I’m seeing plenty of criticism of Abbott at News.
[EMBARRASSING bloopers by Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Treasurer Joe Hockey have revealed they don’t understand who will be forced to pay their controversial new $7 GP fee.
And their mistakes have undermined the government’s attempt to sell a tough budget to angry voters.]
Thats pretty damning.
Retweeted by sortius
Gold Coast Nurse @GoldCoastNurse 7m
Tony Abbott – Election promises and budget lies http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN2VwogTkZY&sns=tw … via @youtube #auspol Can’t be trusted lied lied is a liar still lying
[The sooner we call for an election, the sooner we can deal with Newspapers like DailyTerror.]
I’m pretty sure a dictatorship isn’t a good thing.
@Dio/108
They calling it Bloopers is not what I would call what Abbott and Hockey have done/said/not said/does not understand.
@Dio/110
And how is it any different dictating the ABC?
[Thats pretty damning.
]
Yeah diog other than news which is running in two directions at once most news organizations seem to be running pretty hard against the govt.
the ABC being both a cautious scared / threatened body and a news limited echo service is doing ok given its dreadful ability.
[The sooner we call for an election, the sooner we can deal with Newspapers like DailyTerror.]
Market forces will deal with them sooner rather than later.
victoria @ 62
[Abbott of course knows that the DT is actively campaigning for him and his party. Add the sydney shock jocks and Abbott feels somewhat comforted and confident that things will get better for him.]
It’s an echo chamber, not shifting one vote. The deranged and demented listeners to talkback radio only want to have their fears and prejudices confirmed by ‘The Parrot’ and his ilk, reinforced by the bizarre images conflated, or photoshopped onto the front pages of the News Ltd tabloid shit sheets.
As the listenership and readership of these paranoid Murdoch-led cesspits of rage and idiocy continue to get older and drop off the twig, the influence, such as it is, of these propaganda conduits becomes even less of an issue in our polity.
Rest easy, comrade, the Abbott high tide was on election night in September 2013, and the downward spiral to electoral oblivion for the shambolic Coalition Government is gaining momentum as each new Hockey outrage, or Abbott inanity comes to the voter’s attention.
@kakuru/114
Not sure if you understand that Murdoch has lot of money, the market forces don’t.
Murdoch also has access to Foxtel.
Sky News is pretty much only interesting when there is some major news story (considering how the commercial networks have gutted news divisions… even ABC 24 isn’t that great)… otherwise, I avoid it like the plague.
The Big Ship
[Rest easy, comrade, the Abbott high tide was on election night in September 2013, and the downward spiral to electoral oblivion for the shambolic Coalition Government is gaining momentum as each new Hockey outrage, or Abbott inanity comes to the voter’s attention.]
This is indeed the sentiment here in Melbourne. I find it more difficult to gauge the attitude in Sydney due to the nature of the echo chamber in play
[ The PM’s daughter is given an almost unprecedented scholarship by a Liberal donor and rent-seeker as plans for gutting HECS are being laid, and it’s merely “not a good look”? ]
Maybe not so much the gutting HECS plans being laid BB. Possibly more the plans for extending HECS to private providers? 🙁
Which is several orders of magnitude worse than “not a good look”.
Torygraph will have to lift its game if it wants to win the Josef Goebbel’s Big Lie Award again this year. Last couple of efforts have been very mediocre. Wonder if Col Allen has gone back to New York.
I’ve always regarded the ‘Market’ as at least as big a myth as a Socialist utupia. Markets are corrupted by rent-seeking, monopolies, oligopolies and huge imbalances of power and information between participants. It is at best a useful theoretical concept, helpful in illustrating economic principles to students, rather like a ‘frictionless surface’ in elementary physics.
Diogenes@110
Plus we just had an election – one where the majority chose very poorly and are now squawking that they used the baseball bats on themselves and their own interests.
Almost 30 more months of this unless abbott goes DD which is unlikely given polling.
Then the mugs will probably put abbott back or give the likes of clive the senate balance of power etc to make things harder to rectify.
The election was won on the bases of a fraud.
Over the Tasman the no.2 story in the national newspaper has a real Abbott enhancing headline.
[‘Should I just die and get out of your way?’ Abbott faces voter fury]
It joins this one.
[‘What a total creep’: PM’s unwise wink?]
The thing that will destroy Rupert better than anything is for labor to get back into power and finish the NBN. Then it’s ta ta foxtel.
@123 – still doesn’t mean it voids the result… sadly. Unless there’s a DD, we’re stuck with them. We just need ot make their lives miserable and never let them or the people who voted for them forget.
[ The election was won on the bases of a fraud.]
If you are arguing that voters believed abbott then your point is on safer ground – but voters still chose poorly and must now face the consequences.
But many of the same people will vote for him again – maybe even relected in the polls welll before the 2016 election.
ABSOLUTE GOLD!!!!
Tony’s Favourite Fibs
Everyone must watch and share this video
@j3/@dave
If you keep moving goal posts and give Abbott some room, then are no different the fraudsters in government.
And I will not forgive you.
[And how is it any different dictating the ABC?]
For a start, the ABC is a government body.
@129 – neither Dave nor I are giving Abbott anything – we’re just stating the obvious, there’s no legal or constitutional recourse for a Government that lies its arse off to get elected.
Stating that doesn’t mean that those of us who AGREE with you, shouldn’t be relentless in making sure Abbott is not let off the hook.
Who said anything about agreeing with me?
kakuru 107
It was obvious from the John Faine interview with Abbott yesterday… public is well & truly over the slogans & sound grabs repeated ad nausium.
Bill can be succinct without repeating slogan which isn’t relevant to the question… public not that stupid.
I think it shows that Bill isn’t that quick witted.He was continually searching his memory bank for word selection today.That’s what happens when you have to stay on message.Plus he needs to keep press on side ( which they appear to be at last) & not them slide into total…. “Oh more polly speak” cynicism
Abbott at minus 30 and falling 😀
[Not sure if you understand that Murdoch has lot of money, the market forces don’t.]
Murdoch has a lot of money because he has exploited market forces and political influence to make money. At some point, a money-losing venture will be cut loose.
I know NewsCorps papers can be used as leverage, to advance Murdoch’s business interests. But that only works if his papers have influence, and this is a highly dubious prospect. Like the shock-jocks, they preach to the converted.
So it seems that, without hyperbole, we can be questioning whether the Liberal party is considering dumping Tony Abbott. What would be the most appropriate way?
I agree with Pseph that the party is still more likely to hold ranks at this stage, but I think if it happens it will be through a ‘medical issue’ that forces him to stand down. There is no way they will be caught emulating the Labor party disunity that plagued the previous government.
I think it will be interesting if the preferred leader trend continues the same trajectory and Abbott refuses to abdicate gracefully – a situation not outside the realms of possibility.
Abbott’s earpiece – guess I know the answers but I would like someone to confront him and seek explanation on
a) Why he is wearing it ?
b) If someone is ‘feeding’ him information – who ???
[Bill can be succinct without repeating slogan which isn’t relevant to the question… public not that stupid.]
I agree, sceptic. But short sharp sound-bites are more likely to be regurgitated on the news bulletins. Bill has to strike a balance between succinct and banal. He’s playing the game, and at this particular juncture in the electoral cycle, it’s working.
@Dio/130
And that still does not dictated by the government, unless you are ignoring the ABC Charters of course.
And of Course the Code of Conduct:
http://about.abc.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ABCCodeOfPractice2014.pdf
Standards:
4.1
Gather and present news and information with due impartiality.
4.2
Present a diversity of perspectives so that, over time, no significant strand of thought
or belief within the community is knowingly excluded or disproportionately represented.
4.3
Do not state or imply that any perspective is the editorial opinion of the ABC. The ABC takes no editorial stance other than its commitment to fundamental democratic principles including the rule of law, freedom of speech and religion, parliamentary democracy and equality of opportunity.
4.4
Do not misrepresent any perspective.
4.5
Do not unduly favour one perspective over another.
Under the Code of Conduct, you cannot favor the Government.
This is an amazing govt. Where are the big plans for the future? Where is the vision? About all Tone offers is some bogus road building. This govt’s vision for the future is, essentially, for the govt to do nothing and, indeed, get smaller. Even without all the gaffes and idiocy this govt would be in a lot of trouble because of its basic lack of a narrative or sense of forward momentum. It’s the perfect philosophy for a prime minister who would rather be out riding his bike.
kakaru – All true, except that Rupe only has to make politicians THINK he has influence.
Is there a more beautiful sight in all the world than a Murdoch paywall?
[53
Simon Katich
Briefly (end of last thread)
Thanks for the post on hours worked.
Are those aggregate hours hours ‘worked’ or hours ‘paid’? How is unpaid overtime death with by the ABS?]
I will investigate… 🙂
BTW, some of you might want to read up:
http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/21/abc-flagships-ignore-coalition-nbn-controversy/
cud chewer
Reminds me of an old Wizard of Id cartoon. The wizard runs up to the king carrying a piece of paper marked “poll” and announces “Good news sire .You are now 3 points in front of Sir Rodney’s horse.”
kakuru
[Murdoch has a lot of money because he has exploited market forces and political influence to make money. At some point, a money-losing venture will be cut loose.]
You could argue that money isn’t Murdoch’s ultimate aim; ideology and influence is. I suspect he’d be happier with the Repugs in power in the US and having a smaller profit.
When he goes, market forces will probably reshape News into a more profit-driven company and expensive loss-making parts of the company will be sold off. Murdoch’s newspapers generally aren’t profitable and are likely to get less so.
Tony Abbott’s net-sat on b-track is -28.9%
Does anyone know:
How does this compare with other PM’s worst moments?
Has any PM been able to recover from a comparable net-sat and go on to win the next election?
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 120
[Torygraph will have to lift its game if it wants to win the Josef Goebbel’s Big Lie Award again this year. Last couple of efforts have been very mediocre. Wonder if Col Allen has gone back to New York.]
The beauty of ‘The Big Lie,’ as practised by the infamous Dr Goebbels, is that the lie itself need have no internal logic or external merit. Its sole property is to be repeated over and over again for it to have its effect on the mad and the gullible.
Our PM is a past master at repetitive slogans, so it is an easy transition to the delivery of the unceasing mantra of lies and distortions currently flowing like a torrent from his lips.
bad cat 137
Earpiece is so he can hear questions from caller .. with out headphones as used by studio compare…avoids feedback… start to worry when Abbott has earphone in each ear.. then it is Credlin
Dan @128.
Yep!!!!
z
All those constraints on the ABC are exactly why it can be pushed around.
A private company doesn’t have any of those. It doesn’t have to be impartial, it doesn’t have to represent diversity of opinion, it doesn’t have to fair.