BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  1. Tone has been getting support from Lib donors to help pay his bills?

    He certainly got plenty of help from the taxpayers with all his travel allowance claims.

    he’d be the only person I know of who got his daily pay, plus travel allowance plus accommodation allowance to do a charity bike, ride, swim or volunteer work in the community

  2. gc

    Trigg and Chapman should have gone long ago.

    The Crows hierarchy are a cross between a private club and a sheltered workshop.

  7. Actually I don’t have a problem with a modest increase in income tax on higher incomes to assist in improving the budget position, which is mainly in the state it is because of sluggish revenue, not because of wild spending. But it’s a broken promise and Abbott should be hounded from pillar to post because of it.

  8. The way the Crows are going Port Adelaide could surpass them this year as the most supported AFL club in SA. What a turnup that would be. New Adelaide Oval has certainly been embraced by footy supporters in SA, especially Port supporters.

  9. AussieAchmed@2245

    This is very much the Liberals “let them eat cake” moment

    The excuses will be interesting.

    “We were expecting it” etc and a brave move in the nations interest blah blah – are to be expected.

    If there had been genuine consultation and not a stacked deck with the CoA and the Car Industry – then maybe a chance to get reform.

    The most important question is – have voters stopped listen to abbott yet ? If the answer is yes – then a leadership spill is not out of the question later in the year.

    Sounds far fetched atm, but I doubt the tories will die in a ditch for abbott.

    You can run abbott but cannot hide forever.

  12. I could f’n weep.

    I went to watch the footy in the shed.

    Only to find father and son arguing, practically to blows (still might happen) over ‘bludgers’ taking advantage of the health system.

    The father is a dedicated Labor supporter.

    He is appallingly learning his son’s views to the contrary.

    Dad asked where he went wrong with his son.

    Foxtel, I said.

  15. Centre @2255

    It said support for the Libs has ‘crashed’ – the last Galaxy Poll had them 50/50 with the Libs on 43% primary and the ALP on 37%…

    I think ‘crashed’ suggests 53/47 with a primary at 37-38% (but not all going to the ALP)… at the very least.

  16. Earl of Douglas ‏@ralphd2 6m

    Sunday Heeral Sun 72% voters say levy is a broken promise. 65% say PPL should be delayed #auspol

  17. One of the big stories at the moment should be the risk posed to the LNP by the Palmer Party. Mr Palmer has got to his current political position on the strength of his own money, and a mood for protest voting. But at some point, he is going to have to position the party on the ideological spectrum. There would seem to be no future in trying to be further to the right than the LNP, especially given his views on refugees. His recent tweets suggest that he will instead head for the centre, juxtaposing himself to the Commission of Audit and its supporters. This is potentially a serious threat to Mr Abbott, but a diabolical threat to Premier Newman, with optional preferential voting in Queensland.

  18. pedant

    The Fat One knows how to cut through, I’ll give him that!

    J1983

    Was the poll conducted before the details of a $15 GP co-payment?

    I am looking at a 55/45 to Labor soon, hopefully.

  19. It will be instructive to observe the level of Murdoch support for Abbott (as opposed to the Coalition generally) from here on.

    If Murdoch becomes convinced that Abbott is a dud, we can expect a concerted campaign in his newspapers for Abbott’s removal.

  20. Citizen – Rupe has basically already got what he wants out of the libs: the kNackered Broadband Network. And like every good parent, he knows that children need occasional chastisement to remind them who is in charge.

  21. I think the polling was Tuesday-Thursday or something like that?

    Hockey said he was prepared to send the TPP vote to 40% … let’s see how well he does.

  22. [One of the big stories at the moment should be the risk posed to the LNP by the Palmer Party.]
    PUP could win several lower house seats at the next NSW election if they run adverts saying “we aren’t Labor or Liberal”, just vote 1 for us.

  23. I think it was about 4 weeks back that I forecast the top 8 in the NRL to be:

    – South Sydney
    – Manly
    – Roosters
    – Bulldogs
    – Broncos
    – Titans
    – Tigers
    – Storm

    If the Dragons sign Benji Marshall they could unseat the yukkie Storm.

    I always said intelligence should not be judged by the ability to string together a couple of sentences especially if you vote Greens 🙂

  24. Abbott’s support base in the Liberals is the mad right, every time one falls his grip on power must diminish. In my view time to start thinking about who the moderates would elect.

    Come on down Malcolm.

  26. If Murdoch becomes convinced that Abbott is a dud, we can expect a concerted campaign in his newspapers for Abbott’s removal.

    I agree. I wonder what the editorials will say? Maybe “a good government has lost its way…”.

  28. Interesting exchange on Ghost who votes twitter site now:

    [Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius 3m
    @samanthamaiden @GhostWhoVotes Which website? Always seems to have pre-pub access to Newspoll, Nielsen, Essential.
    View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More

    Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 3m
    @samanthamaiden @Colvinius @GhostWhoVotes He/she often hacks into news organisations.
    View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More

    Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 5m
    @Colvinius @GhostWhoVotes oh come on Mark he’s not psychic he gets it off the website !
    View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More

    Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius 7m
    @ghostwhovotes Know anything about this upcoming Sunday Mail poll? pic.twitter.com/xVCIihMtcT]

  30. [@sundayteleed: Retired MPs to be stripped of free travel. Sunday Tele exclusive #auspol]

    Excellent. Let us finally be rid of the wasteful travel expenses incurred by Howard and his wife.

  31. [ShowsOn @ 2272: Except that they missed the party registration deadline for the next NSW election.]
    Wow, what idiots.

    Was the registration 1 year out?

  32. …[Clive Palmer’s] recent tweets suggest that he will instead head for the centre, juxtaposing himself to the Commission of Audit and its supporters. This is potentially a serious threat to Mr Abbott, but a diabolical threat to Premier Newman, with optional preferential voting in Queensland.

    Maybe a rerun of 1998 is on the cards, with PUP in the ‘One Nation’ role. Then maybe (as Meguire Bob may have said) Labor wins by default?

  33. [Excellent. Let us finally be rid of the wasteful travel expenses incurred by Howard and his wife.]
    It wouldn’t surprise me if former PMs are exempted from the biggest changes.

  34. “@mumbletwits: 90% of opinion polls since the election have had the govt behind. Why does Sunday Mail think it’s so special?”

  35. Any chance Rupe thinks Malcolm has done such a spiffing job neutering the NBN that he deserves to become PM?

  36. And perhaps even worse.

    A mate of the son is in the shed.

    Maybe Lithuanian origin. Heavy accent.

    Over the shouting, he agreed with me about the universal and already taxpayer funded nature of Medicare.

    And out of nowhere, suggested his view that the disabled should be put down at birth!!

    Citing the people cared for by Minda, South Australia.

    I expressed my disgust and left the ignorant fool to it.

    Thinking he should be ‘put down.’

    It is of no wonder that certain speculation expressed here about Mathias Cormann gain currency.

    In its own way, Cormann and his association fuels the divide.

    I am quite prepared to speculate on the damage being done by people who are fortunate enough to come to Australia, bringing their overt or covert prejudice with them.

    Bit worried about 18c if I do so.

  42. [PUP could win several lower house seats at the next NSW election if they run adverts saying “we aren’t Labor or Liberal”, just vote 1 for us.]
    [ShowsOn @ 2272: Except that they missed the party registration deadline for the next NSW election.]

    Perhaps the Greens will be the beneficiaries of the prevalent corrupt behaviour associated with some within the two major parties.

    John Kaye, Greens member of the NSW parliament: http://johnkaye.org.au/icac/
    [The Greens will be introducing new measures in parliament to stop the revolving door between politics and industry, end the influence-peddling by lobbyists and curtail the corrupting influence of donations,” Dr Kaye said.]

  43. [ GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (-2) ALP 52 (+2) #auspol
    ]

    Just another 52% to labor

  48. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 26s

    #Galaxy Poll Should the Paid Parental Leave scheme proceed: Yes 23 No 65 #auspol

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