BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  1. @ briefly 2200

    Which begs the question – who the /hell/ do the Libs get to take his place as Premier? Kim Hames?

  2. What was that temporary levy Howard and Costello put in place and that stayed in place for a very temporary 9 years?

  5. If Abbott resigns because of Icac or something else its not going to be good.

    However there is a bright spot. Likely change of Speaker

  6. “Does anyone else think that Abbott will be mentioned in ICAC?” Yes more than just mentioned I think and I have felt that way for weeks. Tony Windsor is correct in advocating a federal ICAC.

  7. Hartcher appears to be making excuse for Abbott, so that he can gain media cover for breaking all his promises.

    Sorry, but Abbott not only made those promises, he promised he’d keep them. When asked if he would stand by all his promises, he lectured the media on how the grown-ups were in charge, you ca’t tax your way to prosperity (which, incidentally, is the precise rationale behind the Deficit Levy), and how important, indeed vital for the health of democracy it was for governments to keep their promises.

    He made those promises and now he has to suffer the punishment for it.

    He didn’t have to make them, He probably would have won anyway. A modest majority of 10 is as good as one of forty (or whatever it is). He STILL doesn’t have control of the Senate, so all that bullshit, all that smarmy crap about how he was such a committed, truthful, loyal politician who wouldn’t break a campaign promise even at gunpoint, and how bad LKabor were for doing just that yada-yada-yada, has come down to Abbott jumping the shark… and now he deserves to be eaten for it.

  8. Found it

    Debt tax would be akin to Howard and Costello’s superannuation surcharge leveled at those on $70,000 and more in the 1996 budget. That “temporary’’ measure was abolished after nine years.

  10. Arrnea

    They could strip Troy and put him through a car wash a couple of times and see what he comes out like.

    👿

  11. Guytaur 2205

    ‘If Abbott resigns because of Icac or something else its not going to be good’.

    Yeah. Probably not that good.

    For some. Or many.

  12. briefly:

    I think Barnett has to go before the next election. The problem they have is just who to replace him with.

    They’re in a right pickle.

  13. Centre

    No one is suggesting that he will be brought before ICAC we are just guessing.

    Sinodinis is already listed.

  14. “@strom_m: Balmain preselection raw scores. @VerityFirth 60.7% of community vote. @MayorDarcy 51.3% of party vote.”

  16. [2201
    Arrnea Stormbringer

    @ briefly 2200

    Which begs the question – who the /hell/ do the Libs get to take his place as Premier? Kim Hames?]

    Bring back Troy!

  17. I wonder if it might come out that Tone has been getting support from Lib donors to help pay his bills? Pure speculation. But I wouldn’t be surprised.

  20. I remarked to a non PBer the other night.

    In the famous words, millimetre by millimetre, tiny step by miniscule step, we edge closer to Tony.

  21. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 8:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 31m
    Everyone settle down. Sure TA lampooned JG’s broken promise & said there would be no new taxes under him. But this is only a temporary levy.

    Jeezus, so is the carbon ‘tax’ only temporary.]

    Fess

    Do you think there might be a touch of sarcasm in PVO’s comment?

  22. [2212
    confessions

    briefly:

    I think Barnett has to go before the next election. The problem they have is just who to replace him with.

    They’re in a right pickle.]

    the proverbial dill pickle…

  23. outside left
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 8:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari, Wallarah 2 is the likely culprit . Libs are iCACTUS

    Do you really think so I think it has to do with Caruso?? his chief fundraiser already appeared at icac

  25. Centre 2126

    Why does Joe Conomics break out into laughter so often when discussing the budget? It makes his incapability look worse instead of hiding it!

    Joke Onomics.

  26. Diogenes 2128

    As a Crows supporter, I’d just like to say that today is the humblest moment of my life.

    Truuuleeee disgraceful.

    Radio commentators went berserk.

  28. crikey

    [As a Crows supporter, I’d just like to say that today is the humblest moment of my life.

    Truuuleeee disgraceful.

    Radio commentators went berserk.]

    I went to the match with my son. He insisted we leave at 3/4 time. His argument was that even if we won, we didn’t deserve to and had played so badly he’d prefer not to see it.

    It was hard to argue with.

    Truly disgraceful, as you say.

  29. Retweeted by sortius
    Lady Willpower ‏@seearjay 3m

    @sortius A rotund, cigar-sucking Treasurer in a sumptuious setting telling us we all need to pull our weight? pic.twitter.com/NjASq37zqU

    Yes, I’m sure Hockey shares the pain being the Treasurer.

  30. If that Galaxy poll is as bad as it seems – can you imagine what Henderson will be like tomorrow morning on insiders?

  31. So, looks like there may be a truly woeful Galaxy Poll in the offing for Abbott’s Wabble. Will be interesting to see if other polls move in the same direction and whether or not they bounce back after the Budget.

    Does Galaxy get rolled into Bludgertrack??

  33. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 9:01 pm | PERMALINK
    caruso=caputo?

    Thanks Boerwar, my mind wandering a bit as very busy on twitter you are right

  34. The Crows only lost by 3 points, they’re now 3-4. The Demons are 2/5.

    Maybe Melbourne played well and are improving?

    crikey w

    Joe Conomics is so appropriate 🙂

  36. guytaur
    Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 8:48 pm | PERMALINK
    If Abbott resigns because of Icac or something else its not going to be good.

    However there is a bright spot. Likely change of Speaker
    ——–someone in know is appears predicted fall of o’farrell many weeks ago – also said abbott involved as much ….

  39. Daily Telegraph front is AXE THE TAX. VOTERS TELL ABBOTT TO SCRAP DEBT TAX.

    Leaving it open for an Abbott backdown based on “what the people want”.

  40. My expert analysis on the A-League GF tomorrow even though I don’t know that much about the competition I confess:

    – Clearly the two best teams contest the game as expected all season.

    – They will both go at 100 mph straight from the start.

    – There will be many close opportunities missed by both teams.

    – The winning goal will be scored against the run of play in the first half.

    – A scoreless second half as the leading team defends at all costs.

    – Tip……Wanderers 1 Roar 0.

    – Bet……20 cents Wanderers 10 cents Draw.

    It’s a gift 😛

  41. I wonder if it might come out that Tone has been getting support from Lib donors to help pay his bills? Pure speculation. But I wouldn’t be surprised.

    There could be questions about the $700,000 loan he took out after the election loss in 2006….just a thinking aloud

  42. nsw has expedited developers over councils, community, environment. the legacy of present corrupt gov (that is what it is) is widespread. would anyone trust nsw libs with large infrastructure projects it plans. not at all. who will run nsw

  43. The government is going to pay a big price for the way in which it has projected, in the period since its election, a sense of callous disregard for the issues facing typical voters. On the one hand, it has gone off on pointless jollies of interest only to its rusted-ons, such as section 18C and knights and dames; on the other hand, it has shown every sign of viewing cuts, closures, slashes and burns as something to be happy about, not sad.

    The standard theory that new governments should do the nasty stuff in their first budget may well assume that they will still be in honeymoon mode. To bring in a nasty budget when more than half the people are already a bit dirty on them will take them very much into uncharted waters.

  48. [Is that Sunday Mail front page legit?

    So what are the poll numbers?]
    Yes that’s a legit front page. Advertiser / Sunday Mail always put their front page on facebook the night before.

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