BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

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  2. BK
    “Abbott’s blue ties are now tied with a proper Windsor knot. Who taught him to do this?”

    Credlin naturally , blows his nose & wipes his…

  3. mikehilliard@131

    Alan Kohler’s Drum article

    The Coalition is a near certainty to win the 2016 election


    How the f**k would he know.

    He is now employed by murdoch. Thats the only acceptable line to them.

  10. “@latikambourke: It points to a potentially ominous battle brewing between the executive and the backbench. (depending of course of severity of any levy)”

    This after a series of tweets about Government MP’s speaking openly against a levy

  11. Did anyone else watch the Wran Funeral?

    The Service was fittingly held in the Sydney Town Hall were the NSW State Conference is held.

  12. Well there has been a very noticeable change in editorial approach since murdoch bought the ‘Kohler’ business.

    murdoch is on the record as saying about his publications in general, that he doesn’t tell editors etc what to write but he does choose who get those jobs etc.

    He doesn’t need to tell them (most of the time) is the implication. Its also a stretch to say he has ‘never’ told an employee what to write, which is admittedly different from the point you are making.

    Pobably more accurate to say even today if he wanted something written, it would be – one way or another.

    What also has been written about the GG is the fixation of journos who work there on “what will rupert think” of what they write.

  14. MTBW@161

    Did anyone else watch the Wran Funeral?

    The Service was fittingly held in the Sydney Town Hall were the NSW State Conference is held.

    Yes – I thought it was well done.

    Yes – its ‘tribal’ but Labor do the honouring of its greats very well and long may it do so.

    Nifty was a bloody good premier.

  15. poroti@163

    After the sale of AIBM he’d certainly have no monetary need or job security care to do so.

    Part of the sale deal was to stay on for 5 years or so I think.

    I’d be amazed if he had a real monetary need to establish AIBM to start with.

  16. dave

    I thought both Keating and Carr spoke very well and Cavalier is a Labor Historian self defined but knows his stuff.

  17. I don’t know that the Libs winning the next election is a ‘near certainty’, but it is still more likely than not. If we see months of really bad polling for the government I’ll change my assessment.

    Australians very rarely dump a government after only 1 term.

    That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but if we’re making guesses about the future you’d have to think it is still unlikely.

    A government being down 49/51 or 48/52 is far from “gone”, so all of these assertions that Abbott is gorn or the Libs will lose in 2016 are feelpinions. You may think that Abbott and the LNP are so obviously hopeless that they will cock everything up and be voted out, but it’s the Australian public that get to judge that, not you.

    And yes, Kohler has some funny opinions at times but he is no stooge for anyone. Why would he need to prostitute his opinions out to Murdoch?

  19. Kohler’s point is that the Government, regardless of party, needs to raise more revenue mostly because the tax cuts handed out at the height of the boom were not sustainable.

    I have not seen that line being pushed in any of Murdoch’s papers. If anything they take the opposite view. So I don’t think Kohler is doing Murdoch’s bidding. I think he’s calling it as he sees it. Now, he may be wrong, his glasses might well be foggy or broken, and some here may well disagree with him for very good reasons. If so I think it would be more helpful if they articulated why, rather than dismissing him because he now works for a company controlled by Murdoch (as well as the ABC).

  23. A Liberal Party official linked to Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Premier Mike Baird has come under fire at a corruption inquiry over thousands of dollars in cheques he gave to former state energy minister Chris Hartcher.
    John Caputo, a fundraiser for Mr Abbott and Mr Baird and a former mayor of Warringah, admitted at the Independent Commission Against Corruption on Thursday that it was a “diversion” from normal practice to give political donations made out to the NSW Liberal Party directly to Mr Hartcher.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-liberal-party-official-john-caputo-admits-giving-cheques-to-chris-hartcher-20140501-zr22j.html#ixzz30QvwDqEw

  24. [ victoria
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 2:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Good grief. The commission of audit recommends end of universal health care! ]

    The tories don’t change on such things – they just keep quite until they think they can bring it on.

    No schools next?

  28. B.C.:

    [Kohler’s point is that the Government, regardless of party, needs to raise more revenue mostly because the tax cuts handed out at the height of the boom were not sustainable]

    This is the structural deficit, Costello’s gift to Australia.

    This won’t typically get an airing in the Murdoch Press, because it detracts from their hero-worship of Howard and Costello.

  30. victoria

    They are being the “bad cop” so that nice Mr Abbott will be the good cop who “saved” us from them. As he puts the boot in to us we will be told to be grateful as it could have been so much worse.

  32. WILLIAM – Are you saying that people should never factor in that Kohler now works for Rupe? Entirely dismiss it from our minds?

  33. I wonder how much of this will ever actually be implemented. I reckon there are quite a few suggestions that Sir Humphrey would call brave.

    [
    Big big changes are also recommended for healthcare – such as getting rid of universal Medicare.

    The commission is calling for “higher-income earners” to take out private health insurance for basic health services in place of Medicare. And precluding them from accessing the private health insurance rebate.

    The co-payment that has been much talked about in recent months has also popped up in the commission’s findings, i.e. through the introduction of co-payments for all Medicare-funded services.

    General patients would pay $15.00 per service until they reached the safety net threshold (which is 15 visits or services a year). From then, they would pay $7.50 per service.

    Concession card holders would pay $5.00 per service and then $2.50 once the safety net kicked in.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-joe-hockey-releases-commission-of-audit-report-20140501-37jdd.html#ixzz30Qx7Nc2E

  36. I’ve been offered more work, I think I’ll have to say no. So much for increasing productivity.

    Hockey – ‘ Its all Labor’s fault.’

  37. The next Federal election is not a foregone conclusion but a Coalition victory is the more likely outcome. Sportsbet odds imply about a two thirds probability of a Coalition win, which feels too optimistic for the Labor side. My gut feel is about 75-80%. Remember that the current tribulations will be long forgotten.

    Also, the Government will probably get its act a bit more together. Its stumbles will be mostly downplayed in the media. And come the run up to the next election, the air will be full of election bribes, with the mainstream media and all moneyed interests going all out for the Coalition.

    Abbott will most likely still be leader, but the Coalition and its backers won’t hesitate to replace him if he looks like leading them to a loss. Sportsbet odds imply a probability of about 22% that someone besides Abbott will lead the Liberals to the next election.

  38. [WILLIAM – Are you saying that people should never factor in that Kohler now works for Rupe? Entirely dismiss it from our minds?]

    Pretty much. It would unquestionably lead you less far astray than believing such rubbish as that he made that comment about the likely result of the next election to keep sweet with Murdoch.

  39. A quick summary of the Audit

    [
    States would have the power to levy income tax, all patients would pay $15 co-payments to visit a doctor, everyone would pay more for medicines, and family payments would be slashed under a sweeping set of measures recommended by the Abbott government’s Commission of Audit.

    Pensioners would also be hit hard, with the benchmark payments gradually reduced over time to 28 per cent of average weekly earnings, eligibility for the pension tightened and part of the family home considered in an assets test as the pension age rises to 70 by 2050.

    University students would pay more for their degrees and start paying back their loans sooner, while schools would become the sole responsibility of the states with the Commonwealth education department wound back.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pensioners-health-family-payments-face-cuts-under-abbott-governments-commission-of-audit-report-20140501-zr2j3.html#ixzz30QyDovg8

  43. “@SwannyQLD: Comm of Audit is merely an Abbott/Hockey wish list prepared by their Sydney business mates to implement hidden Tea party agenda”

  45. [“@SwannyQLD: Comm of Audit is merely an Abbott/Hockey wish list prepared by their Sydney business mates to implement hidden Tea party agenda”]

    My thoughts exactly.

  48. The tories are opening a huge can of worms with the COA release and the various measures likely to be in the budget – lots of stuff they have said over and over they will not change.

    How in hell do they stop the backlash – let alone get the measures through the Senate?

    Labor,greens and PUP have all the ammo they need.

    Voters finally getting a true picture of what their vote will result in if abbott gets his way.

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