Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.
The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.
Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.
bemused@1495
Well at least one educationalist has the answers to such problems.
http://www.frankdando.com.au/
Check it out.
Don’t do your work during the week? No problem, see you Saturday.
I note the following:
[Our enrolment is capped at twenty four students. With four teachers, the teacher/ pupil ratio is low, and allows for individual attention ensuring all children progress.]
With one teacher to six students, I can make any system, no matter how stupid, work.
The trick is to make kids love coming to your class when there are twenty or thirty of them.
I can make that work. Enthusiasm, positive reinforcement, don’t take any bullshit, fair but strict, and kids respect you and the education they receive.
Mostly.
[1482
lizzie
But I thought that Giles’ lot just won a mini election. Now it seems that was an outlier.]
A mini-election, followed by a mini-honeymoon. Looks statistically clean to me. 😉
bemused
[I was introduced to that cuisine on the picket line during the Patricks dispute.]
One of my life’s WTF? moments occurred during that dispute. When it looked like the cops were moving in I ended up in the front row in Freo locking arms with Carmen Lawrence.
She had back then and before been slagged off to the highest by Mordor Media and I’d accepted that. I became a fan of hers because she turned up on the front line in Freo time after time in the early hours of the morning. It was cold and miserable and there woz zero meeja there but she turned up. It was also when I became Vote 1 Combet. He also turned up in the dark of the night to talk to us.
Just Me
[Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry]
Snap ! Love the Dry but even better when it is still green and lush.
don@1501
In some cases, I have been waiting for twenty years for those assignments to be handed in, but I live in hope.
Well at least one educationalist has the answers to such problems.
http://www.frankdando.com.au/
Check it out.
Don’t do your work during the week? No problem, see you Saturday.
I note the following:
With one teacher to six students, I can make any system, no matter how stupid, work.
The trick is to make kids love coming to your class when there are twenty or thirty of them.
I can make that work. Enthusiasm, positive reinforcement, don’t take any bullshit, fair but strict, and kids respect you and the education they receive.
Mostly.
Frank takes the recalcitrants that have been tossed out of normal schools and rehabilitates them to the point where they can successfully return to a normal school.
This is a much better outcome than would otherwise occur.
Focus is on lots of sport and exercise plus a limited number of core subjects.
poroti@1503
My interesting experience on the picket line occurred when my boss rocked up to join the picket.
I had gone there with a mate from work and we got the shock of our lives when the boss turned up, thinking we might be in some strife. Shock number 2 was when he joined us!
You never can tell where some people stand.
George Brandis says people who say the science is settled on climate change are “ignorant and medieval”.
No George, people are exercising their right of free speech to tell climate change deniers that they’re talking crap. No one is saying that they are not allowed to say what they think, but they don’t have a right to be listened to in respectful silence.
[Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry]
I always preferred the wet to the dry. Not the build up/down, but the actual wet season itself. The dry season used to play havoc with my (then undiagnosed) asthma, esp with all the fires out bush.
Funny how Tony promised to link Defence Super to male earnings before the election, now Joe wants to remove the index for all other pensions.
I wonder how he talks his way out of this dilemma?
Kezza #1497
Noted.
Motivation to continue dialogue: Zero
Reason 1: Waste of time and energy
Reason 2: Zero tolerance for personal abuse tonight
Reason 3: More unicorns on display than even in Mod Libs repetoire.
[A proper Hangi is still one of the best meals Eva.]
Damn right. 🙂
Solar ovens can do a very good imitation. Had one for a while. Did some very nice full roasts in it.
confessions
Death to “The Build Up” . It be horrible to the max.
ruawake@1509
Lie?
I recall dad and my uncle, a Jesuit priest, having a big argument about aborigines. This was in the early 90s, just after Kennett had decided that our dog kennels weren’t even free of takeover.
Dad was furious about it. He’d found some Aboriginal artefacts, stone axes, grinding stones, etc, down at the creek, our creek. Had been ours to access for 50 years.
He’d told me he was going to hide them, or throw them in the rubbish. I tried to convince him not to do either. But I wasn’t sure what he’d do.
Jesuit Priest Uncle came to dinner (well, it was lunch, but anyway) and, as hysterically usual, Uncle had the only napkin – plus a ring, napkin that is.
After a leisurely lunch, when Uncle touched his lips multiple times with the napkin, and some desultory conversation, the topic turned to terra nullius.
Now, dad and Uncle had cleared that land with their own bare hands. Their dad, my grandad had been too ill but he’d directed his two sons to rid the land of ti-tree.
And they did. They grubbed up, by hand, every bloody last one of the remnants of the Koowee Swamp that had invaded the 200 acres at Nar Nar Goon.
But Uncle hadn’t lived with us, or near us, for over 35 years. He’d been in Rome, and India, and then Adelaide. Suddenly he was among us again. I innocently asked him about this spot on our land, named after him. It was four gum trees. In a triangle paddock.
And he told me, at the luncheon table, that he’d planted them in remembrance of the true owners of the land. And he said, “I can almost see a massacre here. And it pains me to know that I have somehow been involved in depriving these people of their land.”
Dad went ballistic. Uncle Jesuit and Dad had the biggest bloody fight I’ve ever seen. Uncle being his quiet psyclaw self against dad’s outraged righteousness.
The single righteousness versus the multiple righteousness.
A sight to behold.
Dad couldn’t hit Uncle, him being a man of god and all, despite granddad having bequeathed a fifth of his property to the bloody church on Uncle’s behald, which sent our family into debt. And before we knew it, Uncle’s car was disappearing down the driveway.
He never darkened our doorway again. Dad had a long bloody memory. But we saw Uncle heaps of times before he died. Dad just didn’t know about it.
poroti:
The build up is THE worst time of the year in the tropics. I would never live up north again. Ever.
[psyclaw
…..Reason 3: More unicorns on display than even in Mod Libs repertoire.]
HEY!
I AINT EVEN HERE (well right now I am, but I wasn’t just before I was…..if you know what I mean?)
Do folk talk about me a lot when I am not around? :devil:
[psyclaw
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 7:48 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza #1497
Noted.
Motivation to continue dialogue: Zero
Reason 1: Waste of time and energy
Reason 2: Zero tolerance for personal abuse tonight
Reason 3: More unicorns on display than even in Mod Libs repetoire.]
1. Righto. Well you’re obviously not a psych for the abused.
2. And, you obviously lied about the questions.
3. Not your fault if you can’ distinguish between genuine questions and personal abuse.
4. Have a rest. Else you might really start to see unicorns.
[George Brandis says people who say the science is settled on climate change are “ignorant and medieval”.]
Brandis in a past time I am sure would also say…
‘. people who say the science is settled on cigarette smoking and lung cancer are “ignorant and medieval”.’
One thing about the far right of politics is that they are more than willing to sacrifice lives in the thousands and millions to protect their business mates….who pay donate to their party and get them good jobs after ..maybe.
psyclaw
Oh, and I’m sorry that I said one upon a time that you had dessicated balls. I was wrong.
I don’t think you have any.
K and her siblings had a serious dilemma as far as I can see. If they had taken the strawberry and admitted to it, they were certain to cop a beating. This could excuse lying. Yet, by making a false denial, the child that had taken the strawberry increased the chances that the other children would also be beaten.
Neither truths nor untruths could achieve a satisfactory result for K and her siblings. Arbitrary and cruel punishment would be dispensed in either case. In this instance, honest answers were strangely irrelevant to the underlying ethical issue and hark back to the medieval practice of trial by water.
In K’s circumstances, she would easily have been excused for asking what use could come from honesty when its ruthless pursuit caused more harm than good.
Nevertheless, we could still object to this reasoning by insisting the child should not have taken the strawberry in the first place – that dishonesty by one child harmed the whole family – and that the culprit should at least be identified if only for their own benefit. Yet this claim is also problematic. How can it make sense to expose and attach blame to a four year old for taking something as inconsequential as a strawberry, or, if it comes to the point, for any other dishonest act?
In the aftermath of the ICAC hearings this week, many were prepared to treat O’Farrell’s failure to declare the gift of a bottle of Grange as if it were no more than the taking of a single berry: an omission of almost no consequence. In this, such observers were prepared to allow the Premier the same latitude they would readily grant a small child.
I think this leads to the real ethical issue in both these very different sets of circumstances. The issue is trust. We need to be able to trust ourselves and each other. Personal contentment, successful interpersonal relationships, fair exchange, respect for the law and a freely ordered society are only possible where trust exists and is protected.
Looking at things this way, it is easy to see the real ethical violations in K’s family were not the possible acts of dishonesty of small children but the use of violence and the creation of fear by their parents.
It is equally easy to see O’Farrell’s conduct as consisting of much more than mistaken recollections about a minor gift. Whether inadvertently or not, he breached the standard of behaviour that is overtly accepted by all those who hold office on trust. Following from his own boastful words, O’Farrell quite clearly could not be relied on to perform his duty in relation to even seemingly minor matters from which he gained a personal benefit. This begs the further question: if apparently small observances meant so little, how could he be trusted on the genuinely big ones.
Perhaps these stories also illustrate that trust is strangely indivisible and, once lost, may be deeply missed for many a long year.
George Brandis really say “ignorant and medieval” ?
Then why don’t Coalition Party have a Science Minister?
I think I know which one is “ignorant and medieval”.
kezza2@1519
Back on a charm offensive tonight kezza2?
Hopefully George B has been instructed to think about what he’s done over Easter.
Whoever it was in cabinet who was telling reporters GB had drunk the right wing loo laid was on the money. He’s in tune with the nutjobs at the Oz with the persecution complex. I thought the Libs were supposed I have a sixth sense for what the average Australian was thinking?
So sad to see a man at his age mentally deteriorating.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/icac-counsel-sorry-barry-lost-his-job/story-e6frgczx-1226889473353#
[Poroti …..
John Pilger writes today in Counterpunch of what he calls “The Strangelove effect”
In simple terms he says the warmongering Neo-cons would be prepared to risk a nucleur war with Russia and China to preserve US hegemony,and will even pretend that such a nucleur war would be “limited” in effect
a terrible thought
Oddly Craig Paul Roberts,,also Reagan’
‘s Tres and a solid Republican now says that the USA menaces the human race an amzing statemen]
These oligarchs believe they are immune from consequences, that they god pulling the strings of nations and military power….they fear not great conflicts, and think they can make profit from way no matter who wins/loses…they always win if they control industry and money.
Their arrogance grows in the manner that absolute power corrupts absolutely. They maybe deluding themselves so much that they believe they can have a ‘limited’ nuclear conflict and win big time from it, always looking to increase their power and wealth.
They are so used to having the US create wars and coups all around the world.. with no consequence to themselves that they don’t care if a long shot fails..its cost them personally nothing. So long as the curtain isn’t pulled back on them.
So, indeed these fools may not be as worried as they should be about somebody launching a nuclear missile.
Mod Lib
I know it was an oblique compliment but I was praising you!
To me, you are no longer the unicorn champ 🙂
Now I’m off to find my balls.
So many parasites now hang of the US machine that it is bankrupt and demented.
psyclaw
I’m sorry to be abrasive, that’s my usual attitude.
I’m very touchy. I was abused, sexually, when I was eight years old.
I told my parents, because I was a truthful child, and despite the punishment I’d seen for telling lies, I didn’t know that sex was bad.
I had a history of fear of the dark. I had to have a light on. Always. In fact, I was like a canary down the mine. If the power went out during the night, I was the one to notify everyone – through demented screaming, or so I’m told.
Mum used to tell me that my notification of the light going out was a good thing, because dad would be able to set up the generator for milking.
Yet, my punishment for telling mum and dad about the sexual abuse was I was made to stand out in the dark, a hundred yards from the house, all by myself. For six hours.
Darkness became not a lack of light, not just a concept, not something to fear but a real mass, a dead weight on me. I can still feel its oppressiveness; its crushing weight.
It’s taken all this time to even set foot outside by myself at night, for a few seconds, or a few minutes, to feel proud of myself.
I saw the red moon the other night. It was magnificent. But I had my dog with me. And I made sure there was nobody else about. And I made sure I had a beeline for the house.
It’s silly to be 60 and still scared of the dark. But that’s me.
And the more I search for truth the less I’m scared of the dark.
Rudd becoming UN Secretary General would be worth it just to see the reaction on Abbott’s face …
Better yet, just to see the reaction on here! 😀
Seriously though, he was born for the role
Why should ICAC say sorry? ICAC is doing it’s job.
spur212@1529
Oh the reaction on here would be the best by far. 👿
The Gillard cultists would go into total meltdown.
Tone would probably just throw one of his nooddies for an hour or so.
[A Us Colonel(Ret’d) looks at the insane statement of a US diplomat who wants to send 150.000 US troops into the Ukraine to confront the Russians…He sees it as both mad and undoable as the US no longer can marshall such forces,after the disasters of Afg’stan and Iraq.and American people will not support such a moive
One wonders if some US policy makers need help for their mental conditions and their lack of understanding of the new world emerging,as US power declines]
I think the US is totally pissed that all the juicy information the NSA gathered on many European leaders wasn’t enough leverage to blackmail them into offering up a 100,000 troops to invade the Ukraine on the excuse of fighting back Russia.
Problem for the USA, now that Snowden outed their activities,..is that they can’t use the information against European leaders lest it cause a total breakdown of relations. And the US needs its friends even more now days.
Russia and BRICS holding many more damaging cards than the US when it comes to the Ukraine… though I suspect Russia wouldn’t mind the US / IMF paying their gas bills for the coming years. So maybe Russia is looking for parts of eastern Ukraine and leave the remainder responsible for the billions in gas bills ..lol
According to the Liberal Political Class someone has to say sorry every time they get annoyed with the truth coming out.
All those mediaeval flat earth scientists should just fess up to Brandis and say sorry to everyone.
Bemused
The fireworks would be spectacular! 😀
http://www.probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2014/04/welfare-review-needs-incentivise-sustainable-employment#
“Disability is not cheap. At a minimum there are extra costs for medical and transport expenses. Pushing people into poverty is not an effective way to empower them to find and maintain sustainable employment.”
And it’s not going to get any better.
briefly @ 1530
I keep telling my story about truth and lies, and honesty and the whole damn thing.
But you’re the only person to have understood where I’m coming from.
I did mention it earlier, about one teacher in particular, what really matters is trust.
That teacher taught me to trust, however briefly (pun not intended) that there are some good people out there.
And that’s what I saw in Fran. Someone who wouldn’t/couldn’t move the goalposts no matter what.
I’m glad you saw it.
And said it so much more succinctly that I ever could.
It doesn’t matter what Kevin Rudd dies now. For better or worse he’s left the Australia political stage for good.
spur212@1534
Is there a report he might get that role?
I was wandering along the wharf at Melbourne during the Patrick dispute and two (what looked to me like) very mature men called out, “Mrs Leschen!”
Two ex students – from my very first ever class – both then union organisers (for which they gave me credit, which I denied..)
One of them went on to become John Brumby’s chief of staff.
[Rudd becoming UN Secretary General would be worth it just to see the reaction on Abbott’s face …
Better yet, just to see the reaction on here!]
Which I’d hazard a guess would be met with champagne corks popping and folk swinging from the chandeliers in happiness.
Anything that hauls the man’s sorry arse away from the Labor caucus and any mischief making with the Oz media is a good outcome for the party. It should’ve happened sooner.
The Pension system in the UK is becoming (or already is) a joke:
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-27083505
Re my 1537 – it does not matter what Kevin Rudd DOES now – predictive text (or inattention or fat clumsy fingers) strikes again
confessions@1540
😀 It’s starting already! 😆 😆 😆
TON PAINE HAS LOOKED… ABOVE…AT THE INCREASING MADNESS AFFECTING SOME US POLITICIANS…PEOPLE LIKE MAD MCCAIN___________________
In the article below Pepe Escobar looks at the way the US feels impotent as the Russian-Chinese “Pipelinestan” deals links their two economies ,,across the “stans” of Central Asia…what used to be called”The Great Game.”.now pivots on gas and oil of which the Russians have a vast abundance
The Euro dependaance of such gas/oil make the EU a natural western terminus for such resources.and would link The Euros/Russia/and China….Ukraine has a part in this vast linkage….but the US has none
They would like to use the Ukraine to block such integratiuon…..lacking in their case both oil and gas on the scale of the central Asian landmass
an interesting article which looks at the US problem and it’s growing isolation
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-170414.html
Bemused
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/04/19/rudds-long-plot-replace-ban-ki-moon/1397829600#.U1GsLycaySO
Not surprised it hasn’t been mentioned here that much (if at all) today
[1504
poroti
Just Me
Just about to hit the best time of year here, early-mid dry
Snap ! Love the Dry but even better when it is still green and lush.]
Green is nice, just after it has rained is wonderful, love a good lightning show (beats TV hands down). But the 6 months of relentless high humidity, usually high temps, and lots of tropical sun, is wearing. Especially that build-up. I have air-con, but don’t wish to live in a box for half the year.
Dry season does mess with some in the hay fever and asthma crowd. Mostly later in the dry, I think, when it gets really dry and dusty, and the big fires get going.
[Oh the reaction on here would be the best by far. 👿
The Gillard cultists would go into total meltdown.]
Thank God we’ve stopped talking about the boring old biggest-political-story-of-the-year, and moved on to something interesting.
[1536
kezza2
briefly @ 1530
I keep telling my story about truth and lies, and honesty and the whole damn thing.]
kezza2, I hope you keep on telling your story. We need trust and we need courage too and we need to know that dignity will outlast sorrow.
Tom Paine.. please note this site (below) which is from a Swiss source and pro-Russian,but which puts up many new views on the world order
In today’s article the writer says that the Russians(of whom he seems to have great knowledge…I understand he is he’s a professional Military anylyst) are now determined to challenge the US hegemony across the world…dangerous but interesting in the long term
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.de/
[Dry season does mess with some in the hay fever and asthma crowd. Mostly later in the dry, I think, when it gets really dry and dusty, and the big fires get going.]
The thing for me is that everything felt dead during the dry. It was as if life packed up and shut itself down. As much as the temperature and humidity were much more bearable, I found the lack of life hard to deal with.
But in the wet you’re practically engulfed by life. I loved it, even though I found the gathering mould rather gross. 🙂