Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 20 of 21
1 19 20 21
  1. [948


    My understanding is Shorten was talking about Victoria. For WA no doubt the numbers would be different.]

    thanks guytaur

  2. [@GizmodoAU: The Commonwealth Bank Is About To Be Buried By Customers Scared Of Heartbleed [Updated] – ]

    Although the Commonwealth Bank says there’s no problem, I can report that Netbank IS off-line at the moment. There’s a message saying “Sorry!”, but no explanation given for the outage.

  3. Vic (953)

    Thanks for that youtube of Abbott signing his own death warrant. Labor should be able to make mince meat out of him at the next election with that.

  4. @BB/955

    As well as they down at the shops apparently.

    My friend posted on facebook:

    “Go to shops bloody commenwealth bank is down”

  5. ABC saying Cabinet set to sign off on Badgerys Creek as second airport in Sydney which would be an excellent move for the country.

  6. Zoidlord

    [Yes, why don’t the liberals attack the rich living off the public purse, and not the poor:]

    That’s one of the main advantages of being a Liberal. They aren’t giving that one up. They are believers in keeping traditions that have served them well.

  7. @Fran/960

    From an email I got from Kevin Andrews Office:

    To quote verbatim:

    “The assets tests is designed dso people with substantial assets use their assets (either directly or to produce income) to meet their day-to day living expenses when calling on the social security system for support. THE ASSETS TESTS HELPS TO ENSURE PEOPLE WITH HIGH LEVELS OF WEALTH CANNOT OTHERWIRSE ACCESS SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS. AN ASSET IS ANY PROPERTY OR POSSESSION THAT A PERSON OWNS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXEMPT ASSETS, SUCH AS THE PERSON’S HOME.”

    Read the part in capital letters.

    So either they breaking their own rules, or breaking the law, and Centerlink should look into liberal voters.

  8. darn

    It will be interesting to see what Abbott actually does. Perhaps he will overrule anything Hockey et al want to do in terms of budget cuts

  9. A prominent Liberal Party fund-raiser and associate of the Obeid family “buttered up” NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell by sending him a $3000 bottle of Grange, a corruption inquiry has heard.
    Nick Di Girolamo, a key player in the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s inquiry into Obeid-linked company Australian Water Holdings, said he had Mr O’Farrell’s mobile number and would call him “once a month, once every couple of weeks”.

    Read more:–a-3000-bottle-of-grange-icac-hears-20140415-36oqz.html#ixzz2yusZjTrw

  10. What a touching story…..

    This is a story about the bond formed between a little girl and a group of building workers.

    A young family moved into a house next door to an empty plot. One day, a gang of building workers turned up to start building on the plot.

    The young family’s 5-year-old daughter naturally took an interest in all the activity going on next door and started talking with the workers.

    She hung around and eventually the builders, all with hearts of gold, more or less adopted the little girl as a sort of project mascot. They chatted with her, let her sit with them while they had tea and lunch breaks, and gave her little jobs to do here and there to make her feel important.

    They even gave the child her very own hard hat and gloves, which thrilled her immensely.

    At the end of the first week, the smiling builders presented her with a pay envelope – containing $10 in 50c coins. The little girl took her ‘pay’ home to her mother who suggested that they take the money to the bank the next day to open a savings account.

    At the bank, the female cashier was tickled pink listening to the little girl telling her about her ‘work’ on the building site and the fact she had a ‘pay packet’.

    ‘You must have worked very hard to earn all this’, said the cashier.

    The little girl proudly replied, ‘Yes, I worked every day with Steve and Wayne and Mike. We’re building a big house.’

    ‘My goodness gracious,’ said the cashier, ‘And will you be working on the house again next week?’

    The child thought for a moment. Then she said seriously:

    ‘I think so. Provided those wankers at Boral deliver the fucking bricks on time.’

  11. guytaur

    ICAC … Those outside NSW may not care about revelations, I guess the expose shows us intended consequences .
    The RC into union corruption is just as likely to catch the big end of town & Tony’s mates, as other said corruption isn’t a one way street.

  12. Victoria @ 953

    But we have a budget crisis.

    We must not have had a budget crisis at the time Abbott made his pledge otherwise he would never have made his pledge.

    Obviously we must now have a budget crisis since the Libs got into government.

    The point is that Abbott would never intentionally say one thing before an election and do something else after an election.

    Bastard :mrgreen:.

  13. [$3000 bottle of Grange given to Barry O’Farrell was not declared on his pecuniary interests register]

    $3000!!!??? Jeez, think how many prostitutes Craig Thompson could hire with that much $$$$.

  14. Badgerys Creek?

    Well they won’t be flying at night unless they want mass riots.

    I’m siding with the NIMBYS on this. The Eastern Suburbs can go and get stuffed!

  15. Hands up any Bludgers who have had a Holden in their family, or know someone who has owned a Holden ?
    Not only that, how obvious is the hypocrisy when the Government cries “budget emergency” when it targets pensioners, yet dose nothing about wealthy people rorting the system, let alone giving wealthy mothers even more assistance via the PPL ?

    Is it any wonder that, despite the “narrative”, this Government is deeply unpopular, even more so than the polls are suggesting ?

  16. People in the know firmly believe that Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey want to raise the retirement age to 90.

    Alfie, an avid listener to 2GB, thinks raising the retirement age is a great idea, but, in his view, it should be raised even higher. Chime in with Alf as he sends a singing telegram to Tones and Joe. Cue: “When I’m Sixty Four” by The Beatles.

    When I get older losing my marbs
    Many years from now
    Will Centrelink still send me on a job search
    Or pension me off, stuck on the perch?
    If my prostate makes me piddle n’ pee
    Don’t show me the door
    You will still need me, you should still heed me
    When I’m ninety-four
    :- )
    You’ll be older too
    And if you say the word
    I’ll still vote for you
    :- )
    I could be handy, in the Home Guard
    When the boats are due
    I can go to Russia, those commos to maim
    If I’m allowed my zimmer-frame
    Join the Green Army, digging the weeds
    Like the days of yore
    Will you retain me, will you retrain me
    When I’m ninety-four?
    :- )
    Pity if the recession’ll make all the kids come back home
    As things get too dear
    Have to scrimp and save
    Grandson will be on my knee
    All of thirty-three!
    (Ouch! Mind the arthur-itis ye big lump!)
    :- )
    Send me a postcard, via Fraudband
    Stating point of view
    Pledge in blood with no amount of delay
    Cos at my age I’m wasting away
    Don’t give me excuses, “can’t do the job”
    I’m yours for evermore
    You will still need me, you should still heed me
    When I’m ninety-four

  17. Centre

    I was working in Glebe when the “no aircraft noise” campaign was running re Mascot Airport.

    Everyone was whingeing there were countless petitions thousands of telephone calls and it seemed no one in the inner city and surrounds was happy.

    Good luck Badgery’s Creek!

  18. [I was working in Glebe when the “no aircraft noise” campaign was running re Mascot Airport.]

    There are just a few more people living in the Inner west than the western part of the City of Liverpool…

  19. MTBW @ 981

    Don’t worry about the propaganda that Mascot is unsustainable – what a load of rubbish. It’s a bit like the Libs telling us everything is unsustainable.

    This is a CLEAR case of the East dumping their pollution on the West.

    Of course it wouldn’t happen immediately if a Badgerys Creek airport is operational – but it will happen eventually. More and more activity will be shifted to the West in time.

    They should riot and they will, good luck to them!

    Oh not to mention property prices will plummet in the west and rise in the east as a result.

  20. [They should expand Mascot, lift all curfews and fly directly above paths of the eastern coastline]

    If the people of the east don’t like it – MOVE!

    Easy 😎

  21. More bad news for FTTN and liberal supporters, spending $40 billion or so for dropping non ‘guarantee’ speeds:,nbn-co-drops-speed-guarantees-for-fttn-service.aspx

    “However, users of the FTTN network will not receive speed guarantees beyond 25 Mbps down and 1 Mbps up, the report states – similar to the maximum performance under ideal line conditions of today’s ADSL2+ service”

    So like currently, the 1.5Mbps guarantee, if a fault occurs higher than the guarantee speed, then companies won’t fix.

  22. @KarenMMiddleton: Merging the ABC & SBS would cause “conniption” among commercial broadcasters, fearing ads to come on ABC: Joe Skrzynski @SBSNews

  23. @craigjack36: Same time as BOF goes to #Icac
    Funny that

    Tony Abbott will hold press conference shortlyhe will announce #badgeryscreek airport #auspol

  24. “@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Prime Minister @TonyAbbottMHR & @warrentrussmp are speaking in Canberra #badgeryscreek #auspol”

    “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says Cabinet has approved construction of a second Sydney airport beginning 2016 at Badgerys Creek. @abcnews”

  25. POM,


    I presume the Royal Commission will be interviewing the little girl to get some evidence on how nasty unionists corrupt the young.

Comments Page 20 of 21
1 19 20 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *