BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

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  1. As long as the tax-payer is funding it, PPL is welfare and not an entitlement.
    After all, the age of Entitlement is over.

  2. There is a Nielsen tonight, this article on a supplementary question has gone online early.

    http://www.watoday.com.au/breaking-news-national/race-hate-voters-tell-brandis-to-back-off-20140413-zqubv.html

    [Race hate: voters tell Brandis to back off
    April 13, 2014 – 4:58PM
    Mark Kenny, Chief Political Correspondent

    Voters have sent an unambiguous message to Tony Abbott and his Attorney General George Brandis: leave the race hate laws alone.

    The latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll specifically asked voters if they believe it should it be lawful or unlawful to “offend, insult or humiliate” somebody based on their race.

    The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.]

  3. Looks like there is a Neilsen brewing.

    [#Nielsen Poll Should people have the right to be bigots: Yes 34 No 59 #auspol]

  4. [
    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

    Am I the only one who finds the term “women of calibre” offensive ?
    ]
    No; but claiming their calibre is measured by their income is.

  5. Although I strongly oppose Abbott’s PPL, I do have sympathy for Sarah Murdoch if she happens to have a baby.

    We wouldn’t like to see her go hungry and needing to find a real job.

  6. Contessa JenRed ‏@JustJen64 6h

    #AUSPOL @JoeHockey & @TonyAbbottMHR HAVE A FUCKING NERVE attacking aged pensioners while planing $75k payments to wealthy mums.

  7. frednk@2107

    Yesiree Bob
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

    Am I the only one who finds the term “women of calibre” offensive ?


    No; but claiming their calibre is measured by their income is.

    Indeed, if you are on a middle to low income, RAbbott doesn’t want to know you.

  8. Do you remember Steve Fielding stripping naked at a rally in Melbourne after Rudd won the 2007 election?

    Fielding was protesting that Rudd should increase the aged pension. In the protest Fielding was joined by many supposedly aged pensioners insisting that Rudd raise the aged pension.

    The fact that Howard did nothing in the 11 years prior, Rudd had just won an election and had every intention of helping aged pensioners made no difference to the protesters.

    FIELDING WHERE ARE YOU!!!

    Keep your clothes on this time for eff sakes 😆 dropkick!

  9. Palmer knows it’s only the fair dinkum miners that pay it.

    Palmer is even punier than the Greens compared to the real miners who pay the MRRT.

  10. Centre

    I assume the gramps and grans in undies, eating PAL, will emerge after Hockey’s May budget?

    I wonder if Joe really wants to piss off the Liberal voting base, the over 60s and those who think like them?

  11. I work in an industry that has a high female ratio and had PPL added to the employment conditions a few years ago

    The major impact of the PPL is that parents are taking more time away from work as they are provided with an additional 14 weeks payment. The purpose of the PPL was to allow parents more time with their babies, which is great. The longer absences has reduced our productivity.

  12. No they won’t rua.

    The protest was a stunt to take some credit off Rudd/Labor for doing something that might be popular.

    If they do, bring out the PAL but keep the clothes on for heaven’s sake 😆

  13. [2115
    frednk

    ABC Q&A ‏@QandA 7h

    Palmer says his party won’t support the mining tax repeal or paid parental leave scheme in its current form #QandA http://ab.co/1nb0YUt

    Ummm; perhaps he can do the maths.]

    I doubt that Palmer’s businesses generate much in the way of a liability for MRRT at this point. He is also not likely to want to pay a tax surcharge to fund PPL, in itself a divisive and counter-productive fertility policy with regressive income distribution consequences.

  14. [I doubt that Palmer’s businesses generate much in the way of a liability for MRRT at this point.]

    I think Palmer has mined next to nothing, except gullible voters.

  15. What about this New2This?

    Abbott doing good job, PPL great policy, PBers give him belly ache?

    He even makes Joe Conomics sound as if he knows what he’s talking about!

  16. New2This

    What about Hockey lecturing people that actually know something about economics with three word slogans?

    What an embarrassment!

  17. Hockey has made a powerful argument for increasing the superannuation guarantee levy, I doubt he realises it yet. Every issue he raises re pensions will be “cured” with a 17.5% levy.

    The Govt will save billions at 20%. Shame the Libs are ideologically opposed to user pays pensions.

  18. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 48m
    #Nielsen Poll Should it be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate someone based on race: No 88 #auspol]

    I would have answered “no” to this question as well. However, what should have been asked is:

    “Should it be unlawful to offend someone, where the individual determines whether or not the statement was offensive”

    My answer would be “no”

  19. Everything

    It depends on the individual.

    Many people at 70 are not fit enough or healthy enough to be productive in the workforce.

    Sure, if somebody is active and productive enough at 70 to work and wants to work – by all means go for it.

    But to push people to work until they drop is disgraceful.

    Unemployment benefits are obviously less than the Aged Pension.

    And you obviously support it – SHAME!

  20. Has Hockey released his G20 homework on how he will increase GDP by 2% over normal yet? Or is he just slagging others who have followed his lead?

  21. [2129
    Everything

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 48m
    #Nielsen Poll Should it be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate someone based on race: No 88 #auspol

    I would have answered “no” to this question as well. However, what should have been asked is:

    “Should it be unlawful to offend someone, where the individual determines whether or not the statement was offensive”

    My answer would be “no”]

    In this case, your answer would be consistent with the existing law.

  22. [Centre
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 8:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Everything

    It depends on the individual.

    Many people at 70 are not fit enough or healthy enough to be productive in the workforce.]

    This applies at 65, 60 and even 55years as well.

  23. [Who would pay for the nearly doubling of the levy?]

    The old age pension would not need to be paid. So a Govt proportion, then as Keating did pay rises traded off for super.

    Cost to taxpayer, next to nothing. Cost to business nothing.

  24. I think Hockey and Abbott have a nerve talking about cutting pensions, increasing the pension age, cutting disability, stopping payments to orphans while supporting the theft of taxpayer money through FBT rorts, claiming the end to the Age of Entitlement while paying Cadbury $16million, mining company subsidies $4billion and Manly RL club $10 million.

  25. Everything

    If you had asked me just 12 months ago I would probably arrogantly and pompously say that “I will work to 70 etc”

    However in the last year, of my 60s acquaintances I have encountered four cancers, two heart attacks, one stroke, two autoimmune, one parkinsons, macular degeneration, motor neurone. Now yes I am starting to face the
    reality of impending death. Somehow working till I am 70 just does not seem quite the ideal.

  26. [
    briefly
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    ….

    “Should it be unlawful to offend someone, where the individual determines whether or not the statement was offensive”

    In this case, your answer would be consistent with the existing law.
    ]
    The judge decides; who other than the offended should bring the case; a flying pink fairy?

  27. Mod Lib

    The older you get, the less likely you will be fit enough, healthy enough and productive enough to work.

    It’s called keeping it real 😉

    You just want them off the aged pension and on to unemployment benefits don’t you – what a kind guy 😆

  28. [
    AussieAchmed
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    In May 2013 Palmer had a $6.2 million mining tax bill he refused to pay….
    ]

    He has paid it.

  29. 2135
    That would work if pay rises were capped, but I couldn’t see that happening. To my knowledge govt has never assisted in paying business superannuation expenses. With the economy now becoming more global loading up tax, super and wage increases on Aus business will end up with only a negative result.

  30. retirement age – should be 110+ or for as long as anybody wants and somebody is willing to employ them.

    Pension age….age when pension can be accessed for those that do not have the ability to fund themselves, and asset/means tested, and mentally and physically capable….can be extended to 70 gradually.

    Retirement age, access to self funded pension should remain at 55 since that as against the pension age 67-70 gives greater incentive for people to aim for self funded retirement. Also self funded retirees will continue to input to the economy from their own accrued resources.

    However increasing the access to self funded superannuation to 70 would be a disincentive.

    I’m a self funded retiree at 55. Actually I have rolled all my superannuation over, live off my wife’s wage and I work part time at 3 days a week and wont need to access the funds for many years yet. We should be entirely self funded for all our lives…and something we have planned more than 20 years ago.

  31. [2146
    AussieAchmed

    So with the plan to repeal the MRRT will the Liberals also repeal the PRRT?]

    Those parts of the MRRT relating to iron ore and coal are to be repealed, but the part relating to coal seam gas will not.

    The question of resource taxation, royalties, State finance and inter-state fiscal relations should be re-visited. Even the LNP might be willing to do this if it were considered alongside the GST. Personally, I think if resource profits tax were treated as a permanent source of State income, to be shared between the States in the same way as GST (and, indirectly, royalty income) is now apportioned, then the politics of resource taxation could easily be changed.

    The States need more revenue and they need more certainty. We can increase state revenues without raising the GST if resource taxation is pitched wisely.

  32. the truth of the matter is the Abbott and his cohort would be happy to get only 1 piece of legislation through the Parliament, ie the Budget.

    The rest they would be happy to be held by the Senate, so they can blame them for the downward spiral in living standards.

    The Treasury Benches are more than enough to prosecute the culture wars, and reward the rent seeking backers.

    PPL? nobody cares, not even Abbott who dreamt this up in conversation with his daughters

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