BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

  1. Everything@2035

    ESJ:

    I get the impression that working folk are in a minority here (mostly retired unionists and people on the disability pension from what I can remember).

    and as I was saying this morning about hubris

  2. [2046
    Everything

    briefly
    …..Everything is a classic Lib

    You mean like not voting for them?]

    Disdain for all, admiration for none, it seems. Is no-one good enough for you?

  3. [Everything….
    No, probably true, I am unlikely to be persuaded by the personal attacks, projections and insults here…..try some reasoning and see how you go though…]

    I am not interested in persuading you of anything much. Why bother. You’re much like CC – at best a detour on the road to understanding.

  4. [
    New2This
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

    One thing ill never do is contribute to bloody union. Never
    ]
    I think you should dwell a little on the differences between Argentina and Australia.

  5. [psyclaw
    ….She’s a die hard Abbotteer]

    Just like all the other die hard Abbotteers who didn’t vote for Abbott, I guess?

    [ who gets her kicks baiting others.]

    I admit to getting my kicks highlighting the hypocrisy and inconsistency of the patronising posters here. One won’t go into naming of course…… 😀

    [I’ m waiting for the day she presents some propositions based on principle or morals or ethics about the social good and then logically argues a point of view.]

    1. I recommended raising the tax free threshold to the poverty level years ago
    2. I recommended ending the offshore processing policy since its inception
    3. I recommended against the changes to the single parent pension
    4. I fully supported the NDIS from the start

    [But she just cuts and pastes anything that’s anti-Labor inflammatory or pro Abbott inflammatory, and if challenged she invents a unicorn or asks an irrelevant question or cuts and pastes other irrelevancies, just to keep the bait alive.]

    I challenge the childish “everything Abbott touches is evil” stuff here.

    I also gently mock the never-ending “Peak Abbott” we get here!

    [Maybe tonight she’ll point out the principles and rationale for her support of the PPL, or why very wealthy people should receive non means tested private health insurance rebates.]

    I have, many, many times. But very happy to do so again.

    1. PPL should be a workplace entitlement, it is NOT a welfare payment
    2. PPL should be paid at the individual’s wage.
    3. We need to change the incentive arrangements away from poor, unprepared mothers having babies for the money, to established, employed, middle class women being able to have babies who are currently avoiding it, or avoiding work, due to the difficulty of moving in between the two
    4. PPL will enable increased breastfeeding rates to 6 months (WHO recommendations) or at least to 4 months (the minimum age which everyone in the health sphere recommends. There is some debate about when to wean, whether 4 months or 6 months, based on iron deficiency rates if you exclusively breastfeed too long, and potential allergy associations (although this is still unclear, so we don’t know when to introduce potential allergens).
    5. The PPL will increase workforce participation which increases productivity, tax revenues, decreases welfare payments and increases the super-pool, hence savings and is fantastic for women and their relationship with the workforce.

    All of which I have said before, some of which I have said many times before!

  6. The Trolls are out and doing their best to “poke” everyone.

    That’s all they got….can’t defend the Liar Monk. Just keep on throwing up unicorns which is proof of their lack of intelligence, their lack of faith in Abbott and his policies and their acknowledgement that Abbott needs as much protection from examination as they can provide

  7. Bemused, Comrade

    In the teaching of reading one eminent researcher coined the phrase “the Matthew principle” to describe the way mediocre teaching enables those who already possess certain rudimentary skills (acquired in various ways that usually do not include school experiences) to benefit and develop.

    But mediocre teaching totally fails the important task of providing those rudimentary skills for those who don’t have them.

    Hence, the rich get richer and the poor can please ’emselves.

    The source is Matthews gospel, but not being very dog-fearing I’m not sure of the verse ….. perhaps 23.

    As an aside, It reminds me of the beatitudes ……. blessed are the deaf for they shall hear, blessed are the blind for they will see, etc. The gem is the one about the poor ……. blessed are the poor for they will see Dog.

    But in this life they can suck eggs.

    Now who was it that said religion is not about social control.

  8. [briefly
    …..Disdain for all, admiration for none, it seems. Is no-one good enough for you?]

    Last election there was certainly no-one good enough for me, no…..

  9. [mostly retired unionists and people on the disability pension from what I can remember]

    This is the kind of sweeping statement that really annoys me, as do all generalisations.

  10. [mostly retired unionists and people on the disability pension from what I can remember]

    This is the kind of sweeping statement that really annoys me, as do all generalisations.

  11. Union report from ALP Branch meeting today, Education union membership up 10% since January.

    Oh and we had to hire a larger room, too many members to fit in the old one. 3 new ALP members this month.

  12. New2This@2052

    One thing ill never do is contribute to bloody union. Never

    So, you will be more than happy to give up your sick leave
    4 weeks paid holidays
    overtime, once you have worked more than 8 hours in a day
    long service leave…..
    need I go on ?

  13. [2. PPL should be paid at the individual’s wage.]

    I should clarify, that I am happy to cap the total to some reasonable amount (happy for it to be $100k for example, rather than Abbott’s $150k). However, it needs to merge into a workplace payment over time, and then it should be at the individual’s pay, although the majority of the positive benefits I mentioned would only apply up to about $100k-$150k, after that mothers probably aren’t very sensitive to the PPL level.

  14. [
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 6:49 pm | Permalink

    Actually Fred unions are much stronger in Argentina than Australia.
    ]
    An inidication that you know very little about Argentina

  15. I think the sad thing everything is how many of the aging labor faithful here will have deceased before a labor government is elected again.

    I know of at least one who has passed since 2007.

    On a brighter note GG is getting better and hopes to be well enough to start posting again.

  16. The insults are being thrown thick and fast these days. Again I agree with much of what said above except I thing PPL as a fell workplace entitlement needs to be brought in over time. We just can’t afford a full PPL at this time. Also the businesses that benefit should pay rather than taxpayers.

  17. I didn’t realise GG was sick.

    Please pass on my best wishes. Tell him his post on the NSW Election was the funniest thing I have seen in this neck of the woods!

  18. Abbott has zero chance of getting his PLL farce through the Senate. Unless he does a deal with the Greens pre- June.

    Even then it will not be his policy and his franked dividend rip off will die as it should.

  19. # 2056

    At the end of the post Everything lists 5 points in answer to my challenge to her to logically argue a point of view.

    It is merely a list of conclusions, all lacking statements of underlying principles, or values, or ethics, and each one lacking an argued rationale.

    For example, she blithely states that PPL is an entitlement, not welfare. This is a glib and vacuous claim, in the absence of said underlying principles /values and a logical rationale.

  20. The Liberal’s abuse of the military really is a disgrace.

    Martin Pakula ‏@MartinPakulaMP Apr 12

    Anybody want to rethink their condemnation of Conroy? Seems to me Campbell has well & truly entered the arena #auspol pic.twitter.com/xmCqNHktg7

    Malcolm Fraser ‏@MalcolmFraser12 56m

    Angus Campbell warns asylum seekers not to travel to Australia by boat http://gu.com/p/3zbkz/tw via @guardian.Was General Hurley informed?

    Malcolm Fraser ‏@MalcolmFraser12 50m

    General Hurley in charge of Defence Force should have prevented any military officer being used for such political purposes.

  21. An entire article on the search for flight MH-370, going into technical details, and the only source f information given is… Tony Abbott.

    In Coalition World, Abbott is now leading the search, jst about carrying it out single-handedly. Angus Houston doesn’t even rate a mention anymore. It’s wall-to-wall Abbott.

    Incidentally, the article says that Abbott told everyone there was virtually no hope of anything being found anytime soon.

    Gee, I must have had wax in my ears. That wasn’t the way I heard his statements.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/long-hunt-for-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-looms-as-pings-go-silent/story-fniztvng-1226882591990

  22. Last time I look labor had already brought in s PPL scheme. The issue is Abbott raiding the biggest companies to provide a little extra for “women with merit”.

  23. [1. PPL should be a workplace entitlement, it is NOT a welfare payment]

    I’ll never understand this notion of parenthood or pregnancy or giving birth being part of work.

    Getting pregnant is not part of a person’s job. Becoming a parent is nothing to do with a person’s job. It’s nothing to do with a workplace nor any workplace entitlement.

    It’s is welfare, pure and simple.

    Therefore if everyone supports the notion of PPL, then it should be funded from taxation – and labelled for what it is, social welfare, a safety net if you like, to enable people to have families and not to slide too far down the class ladder while doing so.

    I can’t believe I survived raising kids without a bonus or a PPL. Does everything have to be a handout now, can’t sacrifice a bit of personal spending money in order to provide for your own kids (and teach them a lesson in frugality at the same time) or is this workplace-connected argument to get the fathers onboard.

    All too much.

  24. Mad Lib@2043

    bemused
    ….I sense someone who has had a privileged upbringing and never suffered any hardship in life.


    Definitely privileged but, malheureusement, I cannot say the last bit is true….

    Her belief system is obviously: “To those that have more shall be given. Whoever does not have, what little they have shall be taken away.”


    Classic projection and hate the projected reality.

    Whatever makes you feel reassured!

    Perhaps your hardship is from the torment of your soul or whatever Libs have in place of one?

    No projection, just a slight adaption of a biblical quote. It seemed to fit with my observations of you.

  25. If it’s a workplace entitlement then it should be paid by the EMPLOYER, asall other workplace entitlements are.

    I’m actually amazed that the media can report po-faced on Hockey’s”End of the Age of Entitlement”and, at the same time, report – again po-faced – that the Abbott PPL is a “workplace entitlement”.

    The double-whamy of it NOT being paid by the employer and the total contradiction in terms between one “entitlement” being bad and another being “good” is gob-smacking, but there you go… that’s what the journos are paid to do.

  26. Stephen Mayne ‏@MayneReport 5h

    Hockey’s “budget emergency” would be more credible if Libs weren’t exacerbating it by slashing mining/carbon tax revenue & PM’s PPL folly.

  27. BB

    I note in your link the quotes from Abbott “We are doing this and we are doing that…..”

    Jerkhead!

    Just like him loading fish boxes in Japan, all safety vested up, or being a firie in the Blue Mountains, he is so deluded as to believe that he is the “doer” in so many (any) work domainss.

    I’ll never understand how the meeja and voters can’t see the stupidity and shallowness of his antics, and call him out.

  28. Some are calling Mod Lib a “she”.

    I think you will all find that Mod Lib is actually a “he”.

    Ok, let’s call it a draw?

    Mod Lib has been officially castrated and is a gelding 😆

  29. frednk@2086

    Stephen Mayne ‏@MayneReport 5h

    Hockey’s “budget emergency” would be more credible if Libs weren’t exacerbating it by slashing mining/carbon tax revenue & PM’s PPL folly.

    My sentiments exactly, what a pity that not one of the press pack seem willing to point this out to any of the Fibs.

  30. [psyclaw
    ….At the end of the post Everything lists 5 points in answer to my challenge to her to logically argue a point of view.

    It is merely a list of conclusions, all lacking statements of underlying principles, or values, or ethics, and each one lacking an argued rationale.]

    What a society deems to be workplace entitlements are determined by how that society values various variables. There is no ethical right to work. It is a societal construct. The same applies to annual leave or sick leave or paid parental leave.

    We as a society decide that we value rest and recreation, health, and children as an important societal “good”, just as the “goods” produced at work are important. Hence, we as a society put value on such variables and determine that we will cover the cost of having those things (or the employer will do it and we will pay them more so that they can do it, but we will insist that they do it).

  31. psyclaw@2087

    BB

    I note in your link the quotes from Abbott “We are doing this and we are doing that…..”

    Jerkhead!

    Just like him loading fish boxes in Japan, all safety vested up, or being a firie in the Blue Mountains, he is so deluded as to believe that he is the “doer” in so many (any) work domainss.

    I’ll never understand how the meeja and voters can’t see the stupidity and shallowness of his antics, and call him out.

    The emperor has no clothes.

  32. Re Everything @2056: intersting to see the rationale set out like that. Have you or anyone done the numbers? A cost / benefit or business case for Abbott’s PPL scheme?

  33. Abbott’s PPL achieves two goals:

    1. It returns taxpayer funds to the highest income earners lowering their tax contribution.

    2. It will breed more rednecks lowering the need for immigration.

    Perfect policy for Abbott. No wonder he converted to it when his little brain gave it thought.

  34. E…sigh…

    1. PPL should be a workplace entitlement, it is NOT a welfare payment

    Quite obviously PPL is not a universal workplace provision. It is just misleading to describe it as a workplace entitlement. It is an attempt to use the welfare system to address the incapacity of many employers to meet any kind of PPL payments. As designed it will replace existing workplace entitlements with non-universal, arbitrary and inefficient tax-based wage supplements.

    2. PPL should be paid at the individual’s wage.

    Why? Why not pay enough to achieve the benefits mentioned at, say, point 4 below? Since it is being funded from taxation, PPL should be assessed like all other like policies – in terms of equity and efficiency.

    3. We need to change the incentive arrangements away from poor, unprepared mothers having babies for the money, to established, employed, middle class women being able to have babies who are currently avoiding it, or avoiding work, due to the difficulty of moving in between the two

    Abbott’s PPL over-pays mothers that do not need assistance and does nothing for those women (in your words) “who are currently…avoiding work, due to the difficulty of moving in between work and having children”. It is a policy that misses 30-35% of its target population on purely arbitrary grounds and, in doing so, accentuates the existing inequalities in the labour market status of women.

    4. PPL will enable increased breastfeeding rates to 6 months (WHO recommendations) or at least to 4 months (the minimum age which everyone in the health sphere recommends. There is some debate about when to wean, whether 4 months or 6 months, based on iron deficiency rates if you exclusively breastfeed too long, and potential allergy associations (although this is still unclear, so we don’t know when to introduce potential allergens).

    This is to confuse a desirable outcome with the means supposedly intended to achieve it. If this is the hoped-for result, why are so many mothers going to be excluded from assistance?

    5. The PPL will increase workforce participation which increases productivity, tax revenues, decreases welfare payments and increases the super-pool, hence savings and is fantastic for women and their relationship with the workforce.

    There is no evidence that PPL will alter workforce participation. It may reduce it. Far from decreasing welfare payments, because it is in itself a welfare payment, PPL will increase the welfare bill without any corresponding needs-testing.

    There is no evidence it will increase savings. In fact, PPL is more to likely to shift savings from the low-paid via the tax system to the best-paid households. It is a regressively redistributive mechanism.

    Because PPL will be funded by taxing selected businesses it will be more likely to harm business investment and productivity than increase it.

    No economic case has been made out for PPL.

  35. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 7:17 pm | PERMALINK
    If it’s a workplace entitlement then it should be paid by the EMPLOYER, asall other workplace entitlements are.]

    Quite so.

    That’s why the argument that PPL is a workplace entitlement doesn’t float. Sinks like the bullshit stone it is.

  36. The PPL for high wage earners is not a productivity or participation measure. As briefly says it is a fertility measure – make it more attractive for “women of calibre” to take time out to have a baby. The baby bonus all over again, but this time targeted at the rich.

    We don’t need more babies.

  37. daretotread@2048

    Bemused

    Everything is NOT Mod Lib
    I am just about certain.
    Mod Lib was a reasonable sort of a person and NEVER nasty

    Everything is a point scorer and often quite mean. I do NOT think they are the same (they may be related). Mod lib was a female Dr I think.

    Everything seems more male

    Possibly Modlib posts occasionally ie when discussing medical matters (these often make sense)

    Everything are you the hubby, son , brother daughter of mod lib or are you both from Menzies House.

    You are taken in by her.

    After Tone won his great victory she became infatuated at him, throwing her nickers at him like a teeny bopper at a Rock concert.

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