BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

After last week’s lurch to the Coalition, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back where it was a fortnight ago after three stronger poll results for Labor, most notably from Newspoll.

The BludgerTrack yo-yo moves in Labor’s direction this week, returning to almost exactly where it was a fortnight ago after lurching to 50.1-49.9 in favour of the Coalition last week. The movement last week was driven by a 51-49 lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, while this week’s comes on the back of three strong results for Labor from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, with the former having the greatest weight in the model. The primary vote results are notable for having the Greens at a new high for the current term, and a look at the charts suggests the recent move in their favour is more than just statistical noise.

On the seat projection, Labor is up 11 this week after losing 10 last week, the distribution of gains being two from New South Wales, one from Victoria, four from Queensland, two from Western Australia and one each from South Australia and the Northern Territory. This is the second week in a row that four seats have shifted on the Queensland projection, emphasising the point that the state remains a target-rich environment for marginal seats. Newspoll also provides a new set of results for leadership ratings, which produce only negligible shifts on last week’s numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,122 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 63
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  2. [Margo Kingston
    I’ve known QB 30+ years – haven’t spoken for few years but confident accepted DameHood to avoid dispute with Abbott. She won’t use title.]

  7. [Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden 10m
    Grumpy talkback caller Ron asks @3AWNeilMitchell “why did we get rid of miles for kilometres!” #knightsanddames]

    We should go back to pounds while we’re at it!

  8. “@Simon_Cullen: RT @3AW693: PM tells @3AWNeilMitchell cabinet not consulted on #knightsanddames – “I’ve had amusing texts from a certain cabinet minister””

  9. Lizzie

    I missed seeing the GGs portrait last night so thanks for the link.

    Not a bad draughtsman’s job of the windows but disappointi g that QB is not the focus in all that background. Almost as bad as the portrait of the Buckets which hangs in Parliament House

  10. IPA bloke supporting Brandis’ new S18D on Sky atm.

    He thinks public discussion will educate us and teach us how to avoid discriminating against our fellow citizens, blah, blah.

  12. “@SwannyQLD: .@ognognegai while Queen Regina may have protection of her loyal baron, Sir Anthony, serfs will eventually take what is rightfully theirs”

  13. Sometimes the obvious needs to be stated

    “@ricky_martin: “The good thing about science is that it’s true weather or not you believe in it””

  16. BH

    This is all very strange to me. Aren’t respect for others, and politeness, still taught by parents and/or schools? Or has all that gone out the window? Why do we need “public discussion” to learn how to behave? OTOH I suppose that’s a rhetorical question in the circs.

  17. I’d have thought Malcolm would love the pomp of a knighthood, even if he did hop on the republican bandwagon for a short while – another thing he completely stuffed up.

  19. So the Whirling Dervish strikes again?

    I tell youse, this man just loves a fight. And if he is not offered one, he’ll pick it.

    His aggression knows no bounds. He is never happy unless there is chaos and mayhem… from which he believes he’ll profit, maybe, but even for it’s own sake it’s grist to his mill.

    The latest is his brain bubble concerning a new Bunyip aristocracy. Of all the things we didn’t need right now this is it. But it puts the wind up the Lefties, so fair enough, let’s do it.

    He was asked the other day whether we would be emulating New Zealand. He said no. What he meant was – and this may be the take-out impression when all the dust settles – “read my lips”. Very, very, carefully.

    Using the techniques of a weasel, he did what he always does: he began to parse his own words. He told us that what he really meant that we weren’t going to retrospectively confer knight and dame-hoods on existing OA holders. But he didn’t say we weren’t going to confer new gongs on hitherto unrewarded personages.

    What he actually told us was something else: if you think that what he has said has any real meaning, think again. There’ll always be an out, a Catch-22, a gotcha, a crossed finger or a mental reservation. Abbott is playing word games with Australia and it’ll be his downfall.

    Whenever he says one thing, allows a clear meaning to be taken from it, and then does the opposite, revealing to us all how brilliantly he has fooled us, or lulled us into a false sense of security, he will go down in the estimation of the punters.

    The message? Don’t go and see Tony abbott without a lawyer in tow, preferably two. Take along advisors who are adept at weedling out true meanings, or hidden agendas, traps for young players. Because if you don’t you’ll lose.

    All along I’ve been saying that Abbott is the obvious con man, the cheap carnival barker, who can’t escape being thought of as dishonest. His strategy is therefore to challenge us to outwit him. The smile on his face yesterday, the big grin, was a clear sign that he thinks he’s put it over the Australian people once again. They were mugs enough to trust his words, to take their plain meaning: “No more knighthoods”. What fools they were. Ha-ha!

    Remember that what we thought he’d promised wasn’t what he thought he’d promised on Education and any number of other issues? This is just more of the same: a mind fuck, a conjurer’s trick, daring us to trust him one more time so that he can hoodwink us once again.

    It’s a way of attracting attention to himself. Very narcissistic. He regards himself as the most brilliant, inventive, unconventionally thinking mind in the country. He enjoys bamboozling people, bewildering them with nuances and lawyerly intellectual games.

    Nothing is certain under Abbott. His words mean very, very little (this is by his own admission). He likes to muck it up and cause trouble. It’s immature, of course, but we are the ones who suffer.

    Eventually no-one will believe a word he says because he’s made the fatal mistake of all narcissists: he thinks we love him, even admire him for his mental dexterity.

    We don’t.

    At best the Australian public is putting up with Abbott, no more than that.

    The more he lies, employs intellectual gymnastics, smirks his way around the polity and just plain makes it up as he goes along, the more the likelihood is that he’ll begin to be hated, not loved. It’s even happening in his own party, which was not consulted.

    But remember: the narcissist scorned can do a lot of damage before he is taken out the back and disposed of in a manner befitting his deceptions.

  20. Three points about Ms Bryce and her Damehood:

    1) Abbott knows her views and has wedged her.

    2) She has accepted out of her sense of dignity.

    3) Abbott is a prick whose aggro and passive-aggro spiteful nature knows no bounds.

  22. Murphy in Politics Live in Guardian today.

    [Budget wars. Quick.

    David Crowe, The Australian. “Labor’s failure to provide for big-spending commitments beyond the budget horizon will blow the nation’s finances, Joe Hockey warned yesterday as he released figures suggesting the bottom line could be $17bn worse in 2017-18.”

    Daniel Hurst, Guardian Australia. “Labor is seeking to fight back in the political battle over its economic legacy by releasing analysis that contradicts the government’s debt and deficit projections. The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, said commissioned analysis by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office showed gross debt in 2023-24 would be about $270bn lower than the $667bn predicted by the government.”

    That’s it in a nutshell. I suspect we’ll hear more of this later today, when the Labor leader Bill Shorten addresses the National Press Club at lunchtime.]

  23. Becoming a habit, one man rule –

    [ Prime Minister Tony Abbott has confirmed that he did not take his decision to reintroduce dames and knights to his colleagues as Labor has criticised the move as a distraction from a bad week for the government.

    Mr Abbott confirmed on Fairfax radio 3AW on Wednesday morning that he had not taken the issue for discussion into the partyroom, but had consulted outside the party. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-bypassed-colleagues-on-dames-and-knights-move-as-labor-says-its-a-distraction-from-bad-headlines-20140326-35h7y.html#ixzz2x1AWbxP2

  24. Well Tony … As you didn’t take it to Cabinet, just behaving like any other dictator, Let’s see you have a conscious vote in parliament on Dames & Khights

  26. [Let’s see you have a conscious vote in parliament on Dames & Khights]

    To be fair to Tony, when he has not fallen into a drunken stupor in his office he is mostly conscious in the house.

  27. [Let’s see you have a conscious vote in parliament on Dames & Khights ]

    Its a done deal – just a letter to Betty Windsor, which no doubt raise eyebrows there.

    I wonder when he told her what he wanted?

    Another issue Turnbull will roll over on?

  29. Murdoch seem to be anti Knights and Dames.

    Bolt points out that Abbott ruled out bringing them back in December and the comments on his site are overwhelmingly negative. The only positive comments say its great he is pissing off the Left.

  30. I solemnly informed my cat last night that, from now on she would be called Dame Lola.
    She said that she didn’t want the title if it was given to tabby cats.
    I said: “But you’re a tabby cat.”
    She said: “Not anymore, I’m not.”

  32. Pell @ RC
    Admits giving Ellis a hard time because he ( Pell) thought Ellis looked OK ( my summary )

    Even after Pell had established procedures in Melb to access true hurt

    Pell should just give up now!

  33. Re Dave @76 – Labor will need to legislate to remove Knighthoods from the Australian Honours system when they get back. It appears that this wasn’t done back in the 80’s.

  34. Out of curiosity, did Rabbott give any philosophical justification for a return to knighthoods, other than this idiocy about being able to have pre-eminent above eminent. Reminds me of This is Spinal Tab and the amplifier that goes to 11 rather than 10.

  35. psyclaw@69

    Three points about Ms Bryce and her Damehood:

    1) Abbott knows her views and has wedged her.

    2) She has accepted out of her sense of dignity.

    3) Abbott is a prick whose aggro and passive-aggro spiteful nature knows no bounds.

    OK, I can accept that.

    So why did Peter Cosgrove accept?

    I am disappointed.

  38. dave

    [He refused one from the UK many years ago]

    Not what I’ve heard. The story I read said that he was on the list, and the Queen rejected his nomination — apparently the only time she has used her veto in this situation.

    He is, however, a papal knight, so he’s not adverse to honours.

  42. So why did Peter Cosgrove accept?

    I assume the reason is that he is a died-in-the wool High Tory. While I don’t recall him being much involved in political discussion, I expect that this would be a minimum requirement for appointment by Abbott to any high office, especially Governor General.

  44. LOL: Pauline Pantsdown has christened Abbott “Sir Pository of Wisdom”.

    THis is all going to plan: as Ive long argued, this bunch of Tories is so lightweight and petty, the best approach is ridicule them.

    I wasnt expecting them to make it so easy though: this Knighthoods rubbish is basically comedy gold.

    Culture war is over if you want it.

    PS I want to be an Earl. Do we have Earls?

  45. MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, March 26, 2014 at 10:28 am | PERMALINK
    Dame MTBW logging in:

    Abbott getting it on the ABC every caller is is calling themselves Dame Lady or Sir.

    Like twitter I don’t recognise most of my tweeters at the moment with their new honorific titles, have to click on them to see who they are 😀 Wonder who “Sir Scott” is
    Guytaur ?

    BTW I am a republican so staying marie!!!!!

  46. [enator DASTYARI (New South Wales) (19:27): Hear ye, hear ye! My Lord, Lady and Lieges: I am shocked and horrified that people are ridiculing the bold and inspirational leadership of the people’s Prime Minister, Sir Anthony Abbott of Warringah.

    While some may claim that returning to knighthoods is taking the country backwards, I can think of no more important policy for our realm right now, because reform does not simply stop at backing bigots. No, friends: this is a Prime Minister with a vision for the future. This is a Prime Minister with a passion. This is a Prime Minister with a broadsword in his hands. While there are those who claim this is simply a policy designed to win votes in the marginal seat realm of Australia west, I reject this outright. With Holden and Ford already leaving, the carriage industry is a growth sector this government is prepared to embrace. I do not want to send the bazaars into a flurry, but rumours abound that Dame Gina Rinehart is prepared to supply the shields, armour and weaponry. What a boost to the West!

    And, my friends, there are on-water matters as well. The free trade agreement the government is currently negotiating with the East India trading company is going to open Australia to spice markets unseen for a generation.

    Friends, let me be clear: together we will stop the moats. In the past few days, I have consulted my economic round table and can categorically state that, by adopting this policy, dozens and dozens of pounds can be saved. I was excited to hear that ministries, in addition to knighthoods, will now be determined through a jousting tournament in the caucus room. Senator Bernardi from the realm of Australia South, whose jousting skills are lacking, confirmed that this has actually been the case for some time.

    But, friends, all is not well—for an ill wind doth blow. My good friend Senator Sinodinos of the realm of South Wales New is currently facing the Inquisition. Despite what the court wizard may say, I believe he will float and be returned to the court forthwith.

    We need a leader who will reject climate change, who knows the world is not warming. Friends, we need a leader who knows that winter is coming, for all of us know that we are living in the time of the Game of Tones.]

  47. I feel sorry for Cosgrove. His GG-ship is bascially born in a moment of high farce.

    Cue Benny Hill music.

    And Ill say it: bit disappointed in Bryce for accepting the silly thing.

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