BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

After last week’s lurch to the Coalition, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is back where it was a fortnight ago after three stronger poll results for Labor, most notably from Newspoll.

The BludgerTrack yo-yo moves in Labor’s direction this week, returning to almost exactly where it was a fortnight ago after lurching to 50.1-49.9 in favour of the Coalition last week. The movement last week was driven by a 51-49 lead to the Coalition in Nielsen, while this week’s comes on the back of three strong results for Labor from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential, with the former having the greatest weight in the model. The primary vote results are notable for having the Greens at a new high for the current term, and a look at the charts suggests the recent move in their favour is more than just statistical noise.

On the seat projection, Labor is up 11 this week after losing 10 last week, the distribution of gains being two from New South Wales, one from Victoria, four from Queensland, two from Western Australia and one each from South Australia and the Northern Territory. This is the second week in a row that four seats have shifted on the Queensland projection, emphasising the point that the state remains a target-rich environment for marginal seats. Newspoll also provides a new set of results for leadership ratings, which produce only negligible shifts on last week’s numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,122 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

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  4. Joe gets caught telling lies by the PBO.

    [The analysis shows that if the Coalition had retained Labor’s fiscal strategy of keeping spending growth to 2 per cent (after inflation) and holding taxes at no more than 23.7 per cent of GDP and had not made new spending commitments, the budget would be back in surplus by 2018-19, instead of the $29.1bn deficit implied by the Coalition’s mid-year budget update. The surplus would rise from $1.8bn in that year to $45.8bn by 2023-24.

    The PBO analysis said that with these assumptions, the net debt would be $110bn by 2023-24, not $370bn as forecast]

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    What a murky mire of influence and corruption.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/morris-iemmas-toppling-was-a-bid-to-help-eddie-obeid-business-deal-witness-tells-icac-20140325-35gho.html
    Brandis and Abbott are not making many friends with this move.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/backlash-over-george-brandis-racial-discrimination-repeal-20140325-35gih.html
    And it’s fraught with political danger for them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alp-to-rally-migrants-to-fight-race-hate-law-changes-20140325-35gig.html
    Woolies and Mathieson illustrate the golden rule – “don’t get caught”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/woolworths-bruce-mathieson-dump-comancheros-security-company-20140325-35gi7.html
    It should be worthwhile watching Bill Shorten at the NPC today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-claims-budget-deception-after-analysis-reveals-fears-inflated-20140325-35ghw.html
    Looks like the Catholic church is on the bones of its arse!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/sydneys-catholic-archdiocese-has-assets-over-1-billion-royal-commission-told-20140325-35fu8.html
    And not before time.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/jail-for-silence-on-child-sex-abuse-20140325-35git.html
    Tony Wright with a well-deserved piss take of Abbott’s knighthoods announcement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-bunyip-aristocracy-arise-lord-clive-and-lady-gina-20140325-35g7i.html
    Lenore Taylor – Abbott takes us back to the dark ages.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/25/tony-abbotts-knights-take-us-back-to-the-dark-ages
    And the shutters are still well and truly up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/alastair-furnival-strategy-to-avoid-conflict-of-interest-stays-secret-20140325-35ghq.html

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Ross Gittins gives us a thoughtful article on indigenous incarceration in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/new-ways-needed-to-arrest-indigenous-imprisonment-rates-20140325-35gc2.html
    Michael Danby on the changes to 18.c.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/25/george-brandis-has-given-australias-racists-a-free-rein
    Andrew Leigh with an op-ed on an Australian republic.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/crowning-glory-would-be-our-own-head-of-state-20140325-35gdn.html
    Michael Leunig on bigotry.

    Alan Moir with a lesson on consistency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Rowe and Craig Thomson.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  9. And from the Land of the Free –

    It’s not looking good for corporate bigots at this Supreme Court case.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/03/science-denial-may-prevail-hobby-lobby
    Is there no limit to Republican craziness?
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/03/kansas-lawmaker-wants-women-report-any
    The Georgia legislature now has allowed “guns everywhere”. What can one say about this?
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/03/georgia-goes-gun-crazy-guns-bars-schools

  10. Sophie will do well with the ageing Professors at Melbourne Uni

    [Former Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella will join the University of Melbourne as a Public Policy Fellow, contributing to public debates of national importance and helping teach students.

    Over more than a decade in Federal Parliament, Mrs Mirabella served as Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research and sat on various Parliamentary Committees (including Foreign Affairs, Defence & Trade and Electoral Matters).

    Mrs Mirabella said she’s excited to be rejoining the University of Melbourne, where she previously studied Law and Commerce.

    “I hope to be able to impart some real life experience about politics,” she said. “It’s one thing looking at ‘Politics 101’, it’s another thing to look at how things actually operate.”]

    http://newsroom.melbourne.edu/mirabella

  13. From last thread …

    1381
    Fran Barlow
    Posted Wednesday, March 26, 2014 at 7:06 am | PERMALINK
    Davidwh

    [It seems to me that Bolt got pinged because he named specific people rather than make a general observation. Am I wrong?]

    No, you’re not wrong.

    Had Bolt simply made the claim that Aboriginality was something any non-Aboriginal could claim to secure social advantage and that there were some high profile people doing it, and that in his opinion, people who didn’t seem black enough to him ought to be denied the benefits of claiming Aborginal status, then 18C could not have touched him because as offensive as such claims are, no specific person could have claimed they were defamed.

    As a number of people, including the judge in the Bolt case, have said, it was not the right to offend that was examined here, but the right to defame a class of people using the claims of specific people within the class on the basis of their ethnic identity without the efforts to relate the claims to reality that would show a good faith belief.

    If Bolt had not mentioned specific people as exemplars of his general point, the “reasonable man” might simply have treated Bolt’s claims as bigoted venting, but the introduction of supporting evidence in the form of claims about specific people might incline said “reasonable man” to entertain the racially offensive claims, and assume other “insufficiently black” Aboriginals were fraudsters, and that indigenous identity was frivolous, arbitrary and spurious rent-seeking.

  14. Re last nights Bolt discussion on the previous thread…

    I can’t quote exactly but the judge in the Bolt case specifically said the defence of good faith was not open to Bolt because the articles were riddled with inaccuracies and emotional language. In other words Bolt was dishonest and made up stuff.

    This is the central point about the Bolt case and should be repeated whenever the subject comes up. Marcia Langton’s 19 page essay the other day would have had a bigger impact if the first and last para hammered home this simple point. The judge said Bolt wrote crap. Can’t be that hard to say.

  15. Morning all. BK thanks for the links. I am unsurprised by the Sydney catholic churches reported $1.2 billion. That would only be for the Sydney diocese, and would not include assets held by various other religious orders. You could also add the value of various hospitals and schools owned by the church, which would be enormous.

    As I said all along, their strategy has been to protect their money and keep Pell and friends out of jail, nothing else.

  16. Tony Abbott hitting the hard interviewers today – Karl Stefnovic, followed by the newly beknighted Lord Alan of Public Convenience.

    Perhaps one more day of National Lampoon.

  17. The reintroduction of knighthoods and damehoods is another exercise in turning the clocks back. Tony Wright lampoons it well. I can’t wait for Lord Alan Jones of Toad Hall, or Baron Howard of Kirribilli. Sir Andrew Bolt will be knighted for pre-eminent service in restoring balance in journalism.

    Abbott’s characterisation of the honours also means that only a select few will get them. So there will be AOs for lesser beings in public service, research etc, and ex-pollies will get gongs.

    I state now my refusal to ever say the word Sir in front of Chris Pyne’s name, if it comes to that.

  21. Abbott and Abetz are working on a law enforcing the underclass to wear cloth caps so that workers will have something to touch when saluting their betters.

  23. Micheal Collett with an article on why we do not need to believe in god to be moral, and vice versa. For those short of time, just listen to George Pell for two minutes and you will reach the same conclusion faster.

  25. a great loos to our polity, but pearls of wisdom anyway

    [Tony Windsor ‏@TonyHWindsor 1m
    I thought I had seen the last of Tony Abbott tugging his forelock to a Windsor
    Expand]

  26. I see that Ms Hird will now not be attending the Essendon Board meeting. This offer was apparently leaked by someone to the MSM, although how and why it was supposed to be kept a dread secret is beyond yrs trly.

    Anyway, some fool journo in the MSM then implied that she was being hauled in front of the Board.

    So, in something of an apparent snit about the difference between personal volition and involuntary attendance, Ms Hird’s offer is off the table.

    ‘I am not a piece of cattle (sic),’she declared stoutly.

  27. Bill Shorten should refer to ALL dames as Damns and all Sirs as Stirs or maybe Purs.

    From GoT we can have Ser too fat to sit a horse (Clive) and Ser Piggy (Sloppy Joe).

  28. On the question of the status of “free speech” in pluralistic societies …

    No society in the world

    A) defines free speech as untrammelled expression of ideas

    and

    B) protects free speech

    Even the most liberal and pluralistic jurisdictions impose constraints on the exercise of expression based on their conception of “the public good”. It’s obvious why this must be so. Any legitimate expression of the sovereignty of the community must take into account what will best serve their common interest, and when the exercise of a given act of free expression causes more harm than it is worth, states curtail it. Sometimes states overstep of course, overstating the harms associated with particular speech acts, but there can be no doubt that there is a line beyond which the permission to freely express a given thought would subvert legitimate community interests. The conclusion is forced: free speech is not an absolute right or one that can inevitably vitiate other rights or legitimate interests, but rather, one that is simply part of a mix of broader claims to freedom people have.

    It is fair to say that the right to express ideas without legal or extra-legal harassment is an important indicator of the degree of freedom in a given society and therewith the legitimacy of governments issuing from the political processes obtaining, but to fetishise it as many in the right do when it suits them is pure cant. These folk aren’t troubled at all by defamation laws, laws against publication of prurient material involving children, insider trading, industrial and military espionage, contempt of court or violation of privacy, publication of addresses of people in the witness protection program and probably one or two other things I haven’t mentioned.

    Such laws seek to reconcile other interests the community has with the broader desire not to be imposed upon by the state. People want freedom, but most realise that unless some freedoms are curtailed, in practice their total freedom will be prejudiced.

    So the question becomes not a boolean — free speech or not? — but rather, a more complex set of questions — which curtailments and by which parties in what circumstances and with what sanctions serve the public interest?

    Sections 18C and 18D seem to strike this balance pretty well. One can support these while still claiming to support free speech.

  30. Brandis says that it should not be for the law to regulate people offending each other ….. offending others is part of our free speech entitlement.

    I can see all the Premiers rushing to repeal their Offensive Behaviour laws today.

    I can hear all the cops breathing a sigh of relief that they will not now have to arrest those who merely tell them “goandfuckyourselfyoumotherfuckinsonofabitch” when asked to move on.

  33. A bit too “social pages” for PB, but in the light of the PM’s newest push for titles…

    [IT was Margie Abbott’s first speaking engagement since her husband became prime minister, and she took to the podium with style and grace.

    But when it comes to protocol, you can throw it out the 36th floor window of the Sydney CBD hotel where Mrs Abbott was on Tuesday to support the Pink Hope foundation.

    “That term ‘First Lady’ I feel very uncomfortable with it – I’m certainly a lady but I’m not the first,” she told AAP.
    And as far as addressing her as Mrs Abbott, forget it, it’s Margie.

    Looking stunning in a soft pink dress and a smart new hair cut, Mrs Abbott said “she was honoured” to take part in the launch of the The Lucky One, the memoir of Pink Hope founder Krystal Barter.]

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/prime-minister-tony-abbotts-wife-margie-abbott-dont-call-me-first-lady/story-fneuz9ev-1226864470673

  34. [What are the world’s riskiest cities when it comes to natural disasters? For the insurance industry it seems an ever-more urgent question, so last year one reinsurance company set out to assess 616 cities around the world for their risk of earthquake, hurricanes and cyclones, storm surge, river flooding and tsunami. Here are Swiss Re’s overall top 10 most risky cities]

    http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/mar/25/earthquakes-hurricanes-cyclones-and-tsunamis-10-riskiest-cities-world

  35. [TONY Abbott has been forced on the defensive over proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act that have sparked claims the government is giving bigotry and racism its blessing.

    The Prime Minister yesterday insisted he was maintaining the red light on inciting racial hatred but removing the amber light on free speech.

    As Coalition MPs peppered Mr Abbott and George Brandis with questions on the plan yesterday, there was also some anger in government ranks that the Attorney-General’s comment on Monday that people had “a right to be bigots” had mobilised public opinion against the changes.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bigot-backlash-sours-tony-abbotts-free-speech-crusade/story-fn59niix-1226864788899#

    Those remarks by Brandis were a definite own goal. The man really says the weirdest things at the strangest times.

  36. lizzie:

    There is a puff piece on Margie Abbott in the Australian today about her about to be an ’empty nester’.

    [FINDING the balance between being a mother to three daughters and the Prime Minister’s wife is something Margie Abbott has grown accustomed to.

    But for the first time in 25 years of juggling family life with her husband’s stellar political career, Mrs Abbott will be a full-time first lady with all three daughters moving away from their home in Sydney.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/margie-faces-up-to-an-empty-nest/story-fn59niix-1226864728679#

  37. In his promo this morning Neil Mitchell says he thinks that the re-introduction of imperial titles will prove to be one of Abbott’s biggest symbolic mistakes – which also happens to be my own view.

  39. http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2014/mar/25/quentin-bryces-official-portrait-pedestrian-art-with-no-soul

    [According to the press release, there is hidden within the painting “numerous symbolic artefacts, each holding personal significance for the governor general and her connection to the Australian people”, including objects that testify to “her commitment to women’s groups and equal rights, respect for Indigenous culture and community, and gratitude and admiration for the armed forces”.

    I’ll leave it to the viewer to determine whether it’s the brooch on Bryce’s suit jacket or the pen in her hand that comments on her gratitude and admiration for the armed forces.

    Instead, I’d like to offer another interpretation. Bryce is looking out of her office, not into a sunset, but into the recent past: she’s wondering why, in the age of photography, status and importance are still enshrined in paint, and why such pedestrian art is celebrated as worthy.]

  40. Tony Abbott, the best male Minister for Women the civilised world has ever known, has decided he is going to promote the cause of women even more by bestowing upon those females who perform particular designated roles, the title of “Dame”.

    Cue Tones singing, “There is nothing like a dame” from the musical, “South Pacific”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgzvTHsOxSQ

    We got typists in the pool
    We got servants a plenty
    We got blond secretaries who make
    Filing their nails look easy
    We got synchronised swimming
    And other girlie games
    What’s to top it off?
    We just need dames!
    :- )
    All these liberated women
    Think they’re just the bee’s knees
    But I’ve got some news for them
    They’ll soon be calling me, “Your Liege”
    If they want to find their place in life
    There’s always the kitchen sink
    Why don’t they get it?
    Too inclined to think!
    :- )
    There is nothin’ like a dame,
    Nothin’ in the world,
    For the ironing they are game
    There is nothing like a dame!
    :- )
    Why feel restless, why feel blue,
    Why feel lonely, and in grief,
    Being a good housewife will bring
    Mighty feelings of relief
    Why wish for opportunities
    That are better left to us males
    When all the nuns
    I’m gonna make dames!
    :- )
    There is nothin’ like a dame,
    Nothin’ in the world,
    For them no fortune or fame, cos it
    Ain’t part of bein’ a dame!
    (except when you’ve been sucked in
    Or are a good loyal girl)

  42. lizzie:

    Perhaps she had to relinquish her childcare role because of conflict of interest with govt funding, much like Therese Rein had to sell off her Australian companies?

  44. Boerwar #32

    “Brandis is a walking, talking offense to most decent Australians.”

    Never a truer statement.

    IMHO like Bishop the “Speaker”, I think Brandis knows in his heart that he’s out of his depth, and compensates by bullish behaviour.

    Both of them have a modus operandi of a bulldozer, and I suspect that they are both intent on running over anyone or everyone to get in first and ensure that the truth doesn’t out … the truth that they are both know all know nothings.

    An insightful PM would be very concerned that he has a Speaker like Bishop, and an A-G who spruiks the virtues of bigotry.

  46. confessions

    Looks like he was wrong when he said……

    [ “They don’t want to leave home until such time as they get married,” ]

  49. Good Morning

    Sir Darn.

    Its a perfect storm reveling values to the public. Punishing war orphans, let there be bigots, honours changes. All with the background of Senator Sinodinos going to ICAC and good mate Cardinal Pell at the Royal Commission into child abuse.

    Too much for Murdoch’s mob to cover. Even as they try and minimise the news of the polling disaster this government is. On twitter someone noted it was the smallest space given to a Newspoll in its history.

    So bad the Courier Mail has accepted the symbolic shambles with its front page to their credit. Boats and carbon “tax” and budget emergency debts are not going to pull the LNP out of the mire.

    I think history will be saying this month of March is where Abbott became a One Term PM.

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