ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

After a fortnight in which Nielsen found the Coalition back in front and Newspoll found Labor further ahead than ever, the monthly result from ReachTEL has Labor maintaining the lead it recorded in the previous poll a month ago.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a ReachTEL poll, which I take to be its monthly poll for the Seven Network, has Labor’s lead unchanged on a month ago at 53-47, from primary votes of 40.3% for the Coalition, 39.2% for Labor and 10.5% for the Greens. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull to be favoured over Tony Abbott by 53.2% of respondents with only 27.7% opting for Abbott (and 19.1% for Joe Hockey), but this is down to a massive disparity between Coalition supporters, 58.6% of whom favour Abbott versus 27.6% for Turnbull and 13.8% for Hockey, and Labor supporters, of whom 76.5% favour Turnbull, 17.9% favour Hockey, and only 5.6% favour Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition up 51-49, reversing the result from last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point to 38% and 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,525 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Rossmore….Perhaps we could suggest that Cormanin in that uniform could go an be a Minister in the far-right govt in Kiev…might be just the place

  4. The Liberals are in favour of Direct (NON) Action because provides legislation that allows them to legally transfer taxpayer money from the budget to their corporate mates and supporters

  5. [
    The carbon tax doesn’t apply to petrol for some ridiculous reason.

    buses are mostly diesel.]

    It doesn’t cover diesel either.

  6. Every time Mathias Corman says ‘fair dinkum’, (and he says it frequently, in Lateline/The Businness interviews) I think what a prat.

    Diog, ta for that on the CT not applying to international air travel. Would the $7 charge deter me from travelling to anywhere in Oz. Absolutely not. Hell, I might even donate another $7 to offset the carbon.

  9. [Rossmore
    …..Absolutely not. Hell, I might even donate another $7 to offset the carbon.]

    How many $7 would you donate?

    HINT: Are you following?

  10. Mad Lib@1447

    bemused
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Mad Lib@1431
    That WAS once the whole point of the carbon tax in the first place, but PB has since done a backflip and now thinks it has had absolutely no impact (not a small impact, it was NO impact) and just works by magic (as in Magic Puddin).
    It also provides additional incentive for airlines to invest in more fuel efficient aircraft.


    Ahem……would it be fair for me to point out that this statement of yours is in direct contradiction to your previous posts on this point.

    Above you are saying that it is in Qantas’ interests to go with cheaper fuel because of the carbon tax. So the carbon tax has an impact then, does it?

    In previous posts you were telling us that there is NO impact on Qantas from the carbon tax.

    Which is it?

    I have never said there will be no impact. But:
    1. It’s airline competitors face the same carbon price so it is a level playing field and Qantas suffers no particular disadvantage.
    2. Any change in passenger numbers will depend on the price elasticity of demand and will probably be insignificant.

    Go play with your straw man.

  13. [Its a zephyr on a thimble, but that wont stop him.]

    Its barely Brownian motion but that won stop him touching himself up in front of every one about it. I think Mod has sadly turned into a conservative version of the Pain Engine.

  14. [mimhoff
    Posted Wednesday, March 5, 2014 at 11:28 pm | PERMALINK
    Okay I’m out. Goodnight everyone.

    But feel free to keep talking to me if you imagine me saying something else though.]

    No worries! 🙂

    I’m off to slumberville too. Enjoy folks…….best of luck with the nominations for the Nobel Prize for this new PBconomics you are inventing over the last few nights too……I’ll be watching out for those white bow ties :devil:

  18. Everything @1437

    Stop being intentionally fascetious.

    Does it have an effect on the business? Yes.

    Does it have an effect on the businesses ability to compete? No.

    The CT is a non-factor in Qantas’ demise

  20. They took the new ball immediately when it was available. Seriously, this is shaping up like Adelaide in 2012, all over again. A wicket (preferably du Plessis) needs to happen now!

    As for questions of whether Clarke should’ve declared earlier, I think the real issue will be how we still can’t bowl the South Africans out in over four sessions. Adding a bit of extra time on top of that seems irrelevant.

    Well, we’ll wait and see what actually happens before we do post-mortems. Still time for the remaining wickets to fall.

  25. Workers deserve better than to see their jobs going due to the greed of the Board/CEO who spent $400 million of company money buying themselves shares to use as bonuses.

  27. Workers deserve better from their Prime Minister than have to trivialize their job loss by say they are now “liberated”.

  29. Moddy the Libby

    Yes increasing prices increase demand, this is the desired objective of the carbon price as current fossil fuels are considerably cheaper than renewable energy thus used in greater quantity.

    The carbon price is designed to correct a perceived market failure by reducing the gap between the cost of renewable and carbon by placing a price on carbon and extending support to renewable energy.

    An ETS would potentially operate in a similar way but with the added advantage of business being able to sell pollution emissions.

  30. Our net goods and services surplus soared 30 per cent to $10.75 billion in the December quarter.

    Dwelling unit approvals in January rose by 1.3 per cent in trend terms and 6.8 per cent seasonally adjusted over the previous month to be ahead a whopping 28 and 35 per cent respectively over the year.

    So where’s the ”budget crisis” Hockey was spouting last May or the more general ”budget emergency” that has become a government catch cry? It doesn’t exist as advertised.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/latest-data-defies-forecasts-from-prophet-of-doom-hockey-20140304-3457o.html#ixzz2v5r18Vvl

  31. Opps i meant increased prices reduces demand

    P.S even the best can make a mistake like a cricketer dropping a catch.

    See Tone is good for something

  33. You can have a budget problem in a growing economy when you spend more than revenue particularly over a sustained period of years. Economy does not equal budget. In fact Australia’s economy and government revenue have increased every post-GFC year and yet we have still recorded record budget deficits throughout the period.

    It really comes down to how you perceive a budget emergency. Apparently Australia doesn’t have a problem while we are doing less worse than Europe and the US.

  34. Bugger my post was eaten by the gerbils.

    AA a budget crisis, if we in fact have one, is not the same as the economy. You can have a problem fiscal outcome while the economy is growing if you continually spend more than revenue. We have done that every post-GFC year.

  35. @davidwh/1483

    Until you release the safety mechanisms of the regulation and legislation.

    We will eventually end up like USA.

  38. [Effing hell, will some of you people let former PM Rudd be?

    Sheesh, it’s a worry!]

    It is just fascinating the response that comes from the same group whenever the name Rudd appears. It is absolutely essential for them to immediately find a way to denigrate and slag him, no matter what the subject.

    It really points to an easily manipulated mind, that the faceless men depended on when they set about character assassinating him. The politicians rely on people like them, which are the majority of the unthinking public, who can be played quite easily.

    So is really quite enjoyable to see Confessions and BW carry on like they suddenly got red back spiders in their undies.

    The thing that they really hate, having been mind manipulated by the party into hating Rudd and adulating Gillard, was that in the end Rudd had to replace Gillard to save the total destruction of Labor. Oh my, how that must have hurt….still hurts obviously.

    So keep up the pavlov dog salivating old chaps, it is quite entertaining.

  41. We don’t have a budget emergency but we do need to better target government spending to ensure it is efficient and effective.

    Our real challenge is ensuring our workforce is fully maximising productive output.

    Currently many Australians are not being fully employed and this is where the real emergency is.

    Looking at this federal government i don’t see any real indication that they understand this or even know how to handle it.

    Workforce planning is not this government’s strong point.

  43. Davidwh

    Of course a carbon price is suppose to have an impact, that being to encourage greater use of renewable energy.

    This is pretty basic undergraduate level economics.

  45. mb
    [… that being to encourage greater use of renewable energy.]
    That’s one of many possible options.

    It could also discourage flying. Note though that both international and domestic air traffic have increased, perhaps not as much as it might have otherwise (but Qantas now claims the cost has not been passed on).

  47. In the case of QANTAS there is no renewable energy powered aircraft so they have to look to replace less fuel efficient aircraft, 747’s, with more fuel efficient aircraft if they want to stay competitive. Either way it comes at a cost to QANTAS. It can’t be a zero sum game for them.

  48. david, are you or aren’t you on PB? We’ve been reliably informed that there is a PB consensus that it has no impact. You simply can’t be saying what you’re saying. Stop trying to break reality!

  49. Davidwh

    But they could put pressure on their fuel suppliers to provide energy from a renewable source.

    It is true that they could see a reduced number of passengers but that is unlikely as Australians don’t have a quicker way of traveling aboard.

    The theory is that increasing a price against the compliment item will see an increase in demand for the compliment item.

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