ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

After a fortnight in which Nielsen found the Coalition back in front and Newspoll found Labor further ahead than ever, the monthly result from ReachTEL has Labor maintaining the lead it recorded in the previous poll a month ago.

GhostWhoVotes relates that a ReachTEL poll, which I take to be its monthly poll for the Seven Network, has Labor’s lead unchanged on a month ago at 53-47, from primary votes of 40.3% for the Coalition, 39.2% for Labor and 10.5% for the Greens. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull to be favoured over Tony Abbott by 53.2% of respondents with only 27.7% opting for Abbott (and 19.1% for Joe Hockey), but this is down to a massive disparity between Coalition supporters, 58.6% of whom favour Abbott versus 27.6% for Turnbull and 13.8% for Hockey, and Labor supporters, of whom 76.5% favour Turnbull, 17.9% favour Hockey, and only 5.6% favour Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition up 51-49, reversing the result from last time. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens each down a point to 38% and 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,525 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Retweeted by Scott Ludlam
    ASRC ‏@ASRC1 1m

    It’s $31 per day for ASRC to house & care for an #asylum seeker in community. $900 per day on Manus Island & that’s just Transfield contract

    Talk about Rorting Tax Payers.

  2. Further to Steve and FarQU on the previous thread.

    Agreed. The corporate world is remarkably silent on the regulations that create wealth for them, especially those that restrict competition and cause monopolies.

    You will not hear many corporate whinges against the following regs:
    – restrictive importing laws on everything from NZ apples to drugs made in third party countries. We pay a lot for stuff that can only be distributed by sole suppliers here.
    – intellectual property laws for old books and music where copyright should have run out years ago
    – superannuation rules that force billions a year to be channelled into listed super funds, whether they perform or not. Without those rules the financial scammer industry would not exist.
    – land zoning rules that allow wealthy land holders to gain from under supply e.g. Residential land
    – fuel subsidies for farmers and miners
    – rules restricting who can broadcast television or radio, sell electricity, mine land etc.

    Try to eliminate any of these regs and see the corporate fury.

  3. first a first …

    now for the micro end of world events … which surprises even when it shouldn’t


    obviously corby speaks with noone with slightest mentoring or intelligence … and has no real agent .. apart from media … this family of whinging lying children will soon see a tougher hand. and willesse born again catholic can take his piece of silver … and to hell with his subject. journalist ethics indeed. what next mike explains his dilemma in another hour doco while schapelle stares at the blank wall of freedom lost … there was nothing good about the promo i saw, it was like a red rag to indonesian public, govt and ideologues.


    Schapelle Corby and her family spent nearly two hours on Monday explaining their Australian TV appearance to officials at the Bali Justice Office in the hope of resisting a push to revoke her bail and return her to Kerobokan prison.
    Sunar Agus, the head of the corrections division at the justice office, who conducted the Monday meeting, also confirmed that the family had left the luxury villa that interviewer Mike Willesee described as a “gilded cage” and moved to another, undisclosed location.
    Mr Sunar said Schapelle had been “uncommunicative” throughout the meeting in his office while sister Mercedes and brother-in-law Wayan Widyartha had explained what was said in the Seven Network interview, and what they hoped to achieve by it.
    The Sunday Night program showed Schapelle Corby’s first swim since her release.
    The Sunday Night program showed Schapelle Corby’s first swim since her release. Photo: Seven Network
    Mr Sunar sent his report on the meeting to the justice department in Jakarta to await a decision by the Minister for Justice and Human Rights about Corby’s parole.
    Mr Sunar told Fairfax Media that Mercedes and Wayan had informed him that the program covered the death of Corby’s father Mick and the medical care Mercedes had given her in prison, as well as their move out of the Sentosa villas.
    But the program covered significantly more ground than that, and Mr Sunar said it was a matter for judgment by others if the family had lied to officials, or if what was in the program was sufficient to cause Schapelle’s parole to be revoked.
    He said the family had argued again that Corby should be allowed to do the interview so that other, non-favoured journalists, would stop “hounding her for an interview”.
    “But judging from my meeting with her, she would not make a very good interview subject,” Mr Sunar said.
    “She was not very communicative and I didn’t want to add pressure to her [by insisting she talk].” Justice minister Mr Amir is expected to decide in coming days if the Sunday Night program is enough to see Corby’s parole revoked.
    He avoided the media waiting at his office in Jakarta on Monday, but, on a popular morning program, his deputy, Denny Indrayana, expressed disquiet about the Seven Network’s broadcast, which was simply called Schapelle.
    Political pressure is mounting within Indonesia for Corby to be locked up again.
    Mr Denny said that, while the issue needed more study, Corby may have been “sneaking around the law” in the program, which featured footage of her celebrating her release, and a soft interview with sister Mercedes.

    Read more:

  4. The poll is nice for Labor, and not for Abbott. It also highlights Abbott’s polarising nature. He might hang onto most of the Liberal supporter votes, but his chance of picking Labor or minor party supporter votes looks slim to none. That must hurt his chances.

    Night all.

  5. @geoffrey 5

    It makes for a pleasant change to be gleefully anticipating new polls instead of dreading them. Ah, the joys of being on the winning side.

  6. i agree asha completely

    i find pb so attuned to negative analysis that relative silence with good news as if not

    think right ahead … what opposition to labor is not libs

  7. Any results from WA? The senate re-run election will be an interesting referendum on abbott. I am sure the mining sector and media will go all out to get the senate result they want, and at the end of the day the best case scenario result for progressives will just mean abbott has to horsetrade with all the far right loons on the cross benches rather than just some of the less crazy ones. he will repeal carbon pricing but not be able to get anything as a replacement (his backers will like that), he’ll be able to privatise at whim providing he directs enough of the proceeds to loons’ pet projects, and ‘deregulate’ for ‘flexible’ workplaces and removal of environmental and social protection. He’ll do a great deal of damage in his three years – and stack courts and government agencies with his people to make it hard for those that follow him. I think he’ll break up the ABC and sell off or defund large parts of it. Media ownership law changes will allow gina to take fairfax and murdoch buy up FTA electronic media. I also expect he’ll use the royal commission into the unions for all it is worth – and move to stop/limit unions giving money to labor and make it easier for wealthy individuals and organisations to donate to parties without disclosure. Labor needs to keep talking like an alternative government and clearly articulate real alternatives to what will be deeply unpopular moves by abbott – they need to hammer the lines “Australians are smart and can see through abbott’s lies” and “This is a government governing for a minority of its very wealthy backers in the media and mining sectors and others who will benefit from the sale of assets and the weakening of our democracy and social safety net”. “This is a government governing for a minority of its very wealthy backers who will benefit by being able to pollute the environment without paying for it”. ” This is a government governing for a minority of their very wealthy backers who want to take more from this country without paying their fair share or looking after the joint properly”. etc. The question “who benefits from this decision?” should be asked at every opportunity and the money from those who benefit traced back to the LNP/IPA coffers. I wonder if labor has the guts to do this.

  8. carey

    it is all a pleasant change at present
    the slogan of abbott come back to bite
    liberal devouring themselves. and it’s only march. more please. maybe political crucifixion for the catholic puppet by easter

  9. [It’s interesting they’re asking questions about Liberal leadership. After almost 3 years of pollsters asking about Labor leadership, it makes a pleasant change.]

    Very much so.

    But interesting that the leadership questions are coming so soon after a change of govt. This must surely be unprecedented.

  10. Asha Leu

    Indeed. I can understand people making typos and spelling errors and using non-standard English on internet message boards. However, people who just post a gigantic wall of text do themselves and any potential readers a disservice.

    Paragraphs exist primarily to divide a text up into a series of sentences that share a common theme or point. Their secondary purpose is to make whatever you’re ranting about easy on the eyes.

    So, sustainable future. Use the EFFING Enter key! Until you do rest assured no one is reading what you’re typing, however awesome it may be and however long it took you to compose.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Nice work Seven! I have no interest in Corby but your selfish actions will further damage the lady.
    This is a 90% political action.
    Lenore Taylor calls out the Qantas carbon tax for the red herring that it is.
    And Mark Kenny agrees with me.
    The odious Peter Reith continues his cheerleading.
    The country may be “open for business” but the House of Representatives certainly isn’t!
    How Abbott is betraying us.
    Brandis goes down in the ICJ in what could be a landmark decision.
    Rather ironically Manus Island refuses to settle asylum seekers citing climate change as a key reason!
    The Consumers’ Health Forum slams the proposal to put on a $6.00 GP visit copayment.

  12. The recent slew of polls that show the ALP ahead in the range of 53-54 to 46-47 say more about the Australian electorate than they do about the Abbott Government.

    Hey! You! Yes, you! You who delivered Tony Abbott a near-landslide victory less than 6 months ago…did you not know who or what you were voting for? WTF did you *think* was going to happen? Weren’t you paying attention?

    Whatever slice of the electorate that delivered the LNP government 53-47 six months ago, and now have switched the other way around — they are f@$kknuckles, pure and simple.

    Dolts who voted in a doltish government and have now realised that mashing cowpats into their foreheads isn’t nearly as appealing as it first seemed.

  13. Has anyone seen the SBS program “Benidorm Bastards”. It’s a prank show from Holland using old actors. There are many funny moments in it.

  14. So much to be proud of.

    [ Karen Barlow ‏@KJBar 9h

    Guardian Australia editor in chief Kath Viner says Manus Is. is becoming Australia’s Guantanamo Bay for refugees #QandA

  15. snappy line.

    [ Australian Labor ‏@AustralianLabor 8h

    “Tonight Tony Abbott has created a new export industry – Australian jobs” @billshortenmp #auspol

  16. Someone has woken up, there is jobs in renewable energy, pity it is not the govment.
    Ashley Leahy ‏@AshleyLeahy 9h

    High tech like manufacturing renewable energy products? Oh wait, a Liberal government! #Qanda

  17. BK

    Re Toad of Toad Hall going down in the ICJ . I thought it a nice touch that the only nay was a Brandi man.

    [The only dissenter was ad hoc judge Ian Callinan, the former Australian High Court judge appointed to the panel by Senator Brandis.]

  18. Vic Libs not happy with interference from the Feds.

    [Another MP said some Victorian Liberals appeared not to care if the party was defeated at the state election.

    ”This is all about Michael, Josh and their egos. Michael didn’t have a friend in the party (after falling out with Peter Costello) and latched on to Josh. They are trying to create some sort of hard-right faction, like in NSW, but people don’t want that in Victoria,” the MP said.

    Backers of Mr Smith insist his win was a victory for the local branch members.

    They said Dr Napthine had been badly advised. ”They tried to pressure the locals into submission with a public campaign and it backfired”, a source in the Kroger-Frydenberg camp said.]

    Read more:

  19. If you read nothing else today, read some of this

    [Weather and climate touch all aspects of Australian life. What we experience here at home is part of the global climate system. The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO contribute significantly to the international effort of weather and climate monitoring, forecasting and research. In State of the Climate, we discuss the long-term trends in Australia’s climate.

    This is our third biennial State of the Climate report. As with our earlier reports, we focus primarily on climate observations and monitoring carried out by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO in the Australian region, as well as on future climate scenarios]

  20. Bugler

    [High tech involves investment in science,]
    Sadly for Australia the coalition doesn’t believe in science 🙁

  21. Morning all

    Mark kenny’s offering today is fair enough, but i wonder what poliitcal capital Abbott feels he can gain from this. Am i missing something?

    [The implications for the government politically are more easily read. It now has a story to tell to voters and a line to bash Labor over the head with]

    Read more:

  22. Lizzie

    As per your link. It does appear that they are not happy campers in Liberal land

    [Another MP said some Victorian Liberals appeared not to care if the party was defeated at the state election. ”This is all about Michael, Josh and their egos. Michael didn’t have a friend in the party [after falling out with Peter Costello] and latched on to Josh. They are trying to create some sort of hard-right faction, like in NSW, but people don’t want that in Victoria,” the MP said.]

    Read more:

  23. As per BK’s link. How many ways does this govt continue to embarrass this nation. Let me count the ways.
    Doubt Brandis even knows how to feel shame

    [The decision, is a major setback for Attorney General George Brandis who authorised the raid on East Timor’s Australia lawyer Bernard Collaery, where about a dozen agents swooped on his office and took reams of material, including legal documents, electronic files and a statement by a former Australian Secret Intelligence Service agent alleging an eavesdropping operation on the tiny half island nation by Australia.]

    Read more:

  24. victoria

    I can see why Josh Frydenberg is a political mate of Michael Kroger. Watching Josh on Q&A last night, I realise he has the same confidence in himself and will become harsher with age.

    Did you notice that Tim Smith’s partner works for Christopher Pyne? I’m beginning to believe in the 6 degrees of separation stuff!

  25. Asha

    [Sustainable future, have you ever considered experimenting with paragraphs? They’re quite nifty.]

    Me too!

    Those posts without to hard on the eyes.

    Scroll past stuff.

  26. I know 20 years is a long time but 20 years ago the local liberal party branches (or definitely one of them) was NAZI and I mean this in the REAL sense of the word. The president was writing a book on the conspiracy of the Elders of Zion and he and another local liberal (whom I met handing out ALP HtV) were violently and publicly antisemitic.

  27. guytaur

    Too right. Whilst good opinion polls for labor are somewhat heartening. It does not change the fact that Abbott and his cronies are wrecking the place.

  28. Malcolm Fraser: Abbott has dome something that George Brandis didn’t give ‘permission’ for. 😀 😀

    [I have seen the letters that passed between shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus and attorney-general George Brandis. The implications are clear. The papers relating to the so-called “Pink Batts Affair” have already been passed to the Royal Commission into the Home Insulation Program.

    If the royal commissioner wishes to publish some parts of those papers, or all of them, the government will at that point decide whether it wishes to claim immunity or not. Apparently, prime minister Tony Abbott directed that the papers be made available for the royal commissioner earlier this year, without the knowledge of the attorney-general.

    A number of questions arise. What is the purpose of this royal commission? I know it was promised before the election, but the question still remains, for what purpose?]

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